Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election. OSW Commentary No. 89, 2012-07-12

After two and a half years under President Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the state the country’s economy is currently in and the direction it has been developing in. There has also been a significant drop in stability and social security with the general public increasingly feeling that the government has little interest in their problems. Only 16% of Ukrainians believe that the current government has performed better than their predecessors, although overall confidence in both the ruling party and the opposition remains low. Nonetheless, falling support for the president and the Cabinet does not seem to have translated into greater popularity for the country’s opposition parties; these currently enjoy the confidence of only a quarter of the electorate. The clear lack of credibility for politicians on either side of the political spectrum, coupled with an almost universal preoccupation with the bare necessities of life, has shifted the political processes in Ukraine further down the agenda for the majority of Ukrainians. Ukraine’s poor economic performance, which over the last two years has been addressed through a series of highly unpopular economic reforms, has resulted in a growing mood of discontent and increased civil activity, with the Ukrainian people reporting a greater willingness than ever to join protests on social issues. Most of them, however, have shown much less interest in political rallies. This is likely to stem from low levels of trust in the opposition and the general belief that opposition politicians are not a viable alternative to the current government. One may therefore assume that there will be little public scrutiny of the parliamentary election scheduled for 28 October, and that the likelihood of mass demonstrations during it is low. However, in the event of large-scale vote rigging and a dismissive response from the government, spontaneous unsanctioned rallies cannot be ruled out. What is more likely, however, is a series of protests after the elections, when the already difficult economic situation is further exacerbated by a predicted rise in the price of gas for Ukrainian households and a possible move to devalue the Ukrainian hryvnia.

A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Pollen abundances, and temperature and precipitation reconstruction for the Eocene to Oligocene transition in northern high latitudes

A profound global climate shift took place at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~33.5 million years ago) when Cretaceous/early Palaeogene greenhouse conditions gave way to icehouse conditions (Zachos et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1059412; Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1). During this interval, changes in the Earth's orbit and a long-term drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Pagani et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1110063; Pearson and Palmer, 2000, doi:10.1038/35021000; DeConto and Pollard, 2003, doi:10.1038/nature01290) resulted in both the growth of Antarctic ice sheets to approximately their modern size (Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1) and the appearance of Northern Hemisphere glacial ice (Eldrett et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05591; Moran et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature04800). However, palaeoclimatic studies of this interval are contradictory: although some analyses indicate no major climatic changes (Kohn et al., 2004, doi:10.1130/G20442.1; Grimes et al., 2005, doi:10.1130/G21019.1), others imply cooler temperatures (Zanazzi et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05551), increased seasonality (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0) and/or aridity (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0; Sheldon et al., 2002, doi:10.1086/342865; Dupont-Nivet et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05516). Climatic conditions in high northern latitudes over this interval are particularly poorly known. Here we present northern high-latitude terrestrial climate estimates for the Eocene to Oligocene interval, based on bioclimatic analysis of terrestrially derived spore and pollen assemblages preserved in marine sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Our data indicate a cooling of ~5 °C in cold-month (winter) mean temperatures to 0-2 °C, and a concomitant increased seasonality before the Oi-1 glaciation event. These data indicate that a cooling component is indeed incorporated in the d18O isotope shift across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. However, the relatively warm summer temperatures at that time mean that continental ice on East Greenland was probably restricted to alpine outlet glaciers.

Magnesium/Calcium ratios in benthic foraminifera from surface sediments

We used modern epibenthic foraminifer tests of Cibicidoides mundulus and Planulina wuellerstorfi from South Atlantic core top sediments in order to establish Mg/Ca-temperature relationships for the temperature range from 0 to 15°C. We obtained the following calibrations: Mg/Ca (mmol/mol) = 0.830*exp(0.145*BWT (°C)) for P. wuellerstorfi, and Mg/Ca (mmol/mol) = 0.627*exp(0.143*BWT (°C)) for C. mundulus. However, a number of tests, especially those bathed in North Atlantic Deep Water, revealed higher Mg/Ca ratios than predicted from the calibration. Our data suggest that d[CO3 2-] of bottom water exerts a significant control on dMg/Ca (temperature-corrected) of C. mundulus (dMg/Ca = 0.017*d[CO3 2-] -0.14), while dMg/Ca of P. wuellerstorfi is more likely to be governed by TCO2 (dMg/Ca = -0.007*TCO2 + 15). Since both d[CO3 2-] and TCO2 are closely linked to [CO3 2-], it is inferred that carbonate ion acts as secondary control, after temperature, on benthic shell Mg/Ca below -4°C. A drop in [CO3 2-] by 25 ?mol/kg at 4 km water depth, as suggested for the Last Glacial Maximum, would decrease Mg/Ca by up to 0.4 mmol/mol, which leads to an underestimation of bottom water temperature by -3.5°C. Therefore our results indicate that the Mg/Ca thermometer should be used cautiously for benthic foraminifers where changes in the carbonate chemistry are present in the paleoceanographic record.

Endgame for the West in Afghanistan? : explaining the decline in support for the war in Afghanistan in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Germany /

Analyses of the War in Afghanistan frequently mention the declining or shaky domestic support for the conflict in the United States and among several U.S. allies. This paper dates the beginning of this decline back to the resurgence of the Taliban in 2005-06 and suggests that the deteriorating course of the war on the ground in Afghanistan itself along with mounting casualties is the key reason behind this drop in domestic support for the war.

Performance of commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for diagnosis of HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection in a clinical setting

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Determination of external and internal mass transfer limitation in nitrifying microbial aggregates

In this article we present a study of the effects of external and internal mass transfer limitation of oxygen in a nitrifying system. The oxygen uptake rates (OUR) were measured on both a macro-scale with a respirometric reactor using off-gas analysis (Titrimetric and Off-Gas Analysis (TOGA) sensor) and on a micro-scale with microsensors. These two methods provide independent, accurate measurements of the reaction rates and concentration profiles around and in the granules. The TOGA sensor and micro-sensor measurements showed a significant external mass transfer effect at low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in the bulk liquid while it was insignificant at higher DO concentrations. The oxygen distribution with anaerobic or anoxic conditions in the center clearly shows major mass transfer limitation in the aggregate interior. The large drop in DO concentration of 22 - 80% between the bulk liquid and aggregate surface demonstrates that the external mass transfer resistance is also highly important. The maximum OUR even for floccular biomass was only attained at much higher DO concentrations ( approximate to 8 mg/L) than typically used in such systems. For granules, the DO required for maximal activity was estimated to be > 20mg/L, clearly indicating the effects of the major external and internal mass transfer limitations on the overall biomass activity. Smaller aggregates had a larger volumetric OUR indicating that the granules may have a lower activity in the interior part of the aggregate. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frequency of insomnia report in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS)

Background and purpose: Insomnia and Obstructive Sleep Apnoea Hypopnea Syndrome (OSAHS) are the two most common sleep disorders, and both have significant associated health costs. Despite this, relatively little is known about the prevalence or impact of insomnia in those with OSAHS, although a recent study suggested there may be substantial comorbidity between these disorders [Chest 120 (2001) 1923-9]. The primary aim of this study was to further explore the prevalence of insomnia in OSAHS. A secondary aim was to assess the effect of factors that may impact on both conditions, including mood and sleep-beliefs. Patients and methods: Consecutive patients referred to an accredited Sleep Investigations Unit (n = 105) completed a brief standardized battery of validated questionnaires assessing sleep-related variables and mood. Results: Results showed a high rate of prevalence of clinical insomnia in this OSAHS population, and a strong positive correlation between OSAHS and insomnia symptom severity. Further, OSAHS patients with comorbid insomnia had increased levels of depression, anxiety and stress compared to patients with OSAHS-only, and both patient groups reported similar and significant levels of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep. Findings in relation to habitual sleep, assessed using subjective (diary) and objective criteria (polysomnogram), were mixed but generally showed greater sleep disturbance among those with OSAHS-insomnia compared to those with OSAHS-only. Conclusions: Overall these findings suggest that comorbidity of insomnia in OSAHS patients may lead to increased OSAHS severity and that patients with both conditions may experience more symptoms relating to depression, anxiety and stress. These findings underscore the need for insomnia assessment and management services, even in clinics that primarily service patients with OSAHS. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence-based medicine is affordable: The cost-effectiveness of current compared with optimal treatment in rheumatoid and osteoarthritis

Objective. To determine the cost-effectiveness of averting the burden of disease. We used secondary population data and metaanalyses of various government-funded services and interventions to investigate the costs and benefits of various levels of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) in adults using a burden of disease framework. Method. Population burden was calculated for both diseases in the absence of any treatment as years lived with disability (YLD), ignoring the years of life lost. We then estimated the proportion of burden averted with current interventions, the proportion that could be averted with optimally implemented cut-rent evidence-based guidelines, and the direct treatment cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per YLD averted for both treatment levels. Results. The majority of people with arthritis sought medical treatment. Current treatment for RA averted 26% of the burden, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $19,000 per YLD averted. Optimal, evidence-based treatment would avert 48% of the burden. with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,000 per YLD averted. Current treatment of OA in Australia averted 27% of the burden, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000 per YLD averted. Optimal, evidence-based treatment would avert 39% of the burden, with an unchanged cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000 per YLD averted. Conclusion. While the precise dollar costs in each country will differ, the relativities at this level of coverage should remain the same. There is no evidence that closing the gap between evidence and practice would result in a drop in efficiency.

Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia: recent experience in a large teaching hospital

Background: Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is a potentially serious adverse reaction caused by platelet-activating antibodies. Aim: To describe experience with HIT. Methods: Twenty-two patients identified by laboratory records of heparin-associated antibodies with a 50% or greater decrease in platelet count were reviewed in our 600-bed metropolitan teaching hospital from 1999 to April 2005. Results: There was an increase in the frequency of HIT diagnosed during the review period, which was associated with a rise in the number of requests for HIT antibodies. Thrombotic complications were identified in 14 of 22 patients with HIT. Mean age was 65 years, and 11 patients were men. Seven patients died and HIT was considered contributory in four. One patient required mid-forearm amputation. Unfractionated heparin was used in all cases and five patients also received enoxaparin. Mean time to HIT screen, reflecting when the diagnosis was first suspected, was 14 days. Platelet nadir ranged from 6 x 10(9)/L to 88 x 10(9)/L, with a percentage drop in platelet count of 67-96%. Alternative anticoagulation (danaparoid) was not used in three patients, two of whom died. Conclusions: HIT is a potentially life-threatening complication of heparin therapy, associated with a fall in platelet count and a high incidence of thromboembolic complications. It is most frequently seen using unfractionated heparin therapy. The increase in frequency of HIT diagnosed in our hospital appears to be associated with a greater awareness of the entity, although detection is often delayed. Platelet count should be monitored in patients on heparin and the presence of antiplatelet antibodies determined if HIT is suspected. Treatment involves both discontinuation of heparin and the use of an alternative anticoagulant such as danaparoid because of the persisting risk of thrombosis.

Targets and self monitoring in hypertension: randomised controlled trial and cost effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether blood pressure control in primary care could be improved with the use of patient held targets and self monitoring in a practice setting, and to assess the impact of these on health behaviours, anxiety, prescribed antihypertensive drugs, patients' preferences, and costs. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Eight general practices in south Birmingham. PARTICIPANTS: 441 people receiving treatment in primary care for hypertension but not controlled below the target of < 140/85 mm Hg. INTERVENTIONS: Patients in the intervention group received treatment targets along with facilities to measure their own blood pressure at their general practice; they were also asked to visit their general practitioner or practice nurse if their blood pressure was repeatedly above the target level. Patients in the control group received usual care (blood pressure monitoring by their practice). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome: change in systolic blood pressure at six months and one year in both intervention and control groups. Secondary outcomes: change in health behaviours, anxiety, prescribed antihypertensive drugs, patients' preferences of method of blood pressure monitoring, and costs. RESULTS: 400 (91%) patients attended follow up at one year. Systolic blood pressure in the intervention group had significantly reduced after six months (mean difference 4.3 mm Hg (95% confidence interval 0.8 mm Hg to 7.9 mm Hg)) but not after one year (mean difference 2.7 mm Hg (- 1.2 mm Hg to 6.6 mm Hg)). No overall difference was found in diastolic blood pressure, anxiety, health behaviours, or number of prescribed drugs. Patients who self monitored lost more weight than controls (as evidenced by a drop in body mass index), rated self monitoring above monitoring by a doctor or nurse, and consulted less often. Overall, self monitoring did not cost significantly more than usual care (251 pounds sterling (437 dollars; 364 euros) (95% confidence interval 233 pounds sterling to 275 pounds sterling) versus 240 pounds sterling (217 pounds sterling to 263 pounds sterling). CONCLUSIONS: Practice based self monitoring resulted in small but significant improvements of blood pressure at six months, which were not sustained after a year. Self monitoring was well received by patients, anxiety did not increase, and there was no appreciable additional cost. Practice based self monitoring is feasible and results in blood pressure control that is similar to that in usual care.

Impact of just-in-time on job content, employee attitudes and well-being:a longitudinal study

Just-in-time (JIT) production systems are increasingly being seen as a vital way for manufacturing organizations to enhance their competitiveness. A number of commentators have suggested that this will simplify jobs and reduce employee well-being. This paper presents a conceptual framework for interpreting the effects of JIT and reports findings from a study of the impact of JIT on the content of workers'jobs and on job satisfaction and psychological strain. The introduction of JIT led to a reduction in control over work timing, an increase in production pressure, and a drop in job satisfaction. Contrary to claims in the literature, no changes were found in control over work methods, other aspects of cognitive demands and skill use, and in psychological strain. The study shows that JIT can be implemented without radical changes in job content or adverse impact in terms of employee strain, and the implications of these findings are discussed.

Structure-reactivity correlations in the selective aerobic oxidation of cinnamyl alcohol:in situ XAFS

The structural evolution of a Pd/C catalyst during the liquid phase selective aerobic oxidation of cinnamyl alcohol has been followed by in situ XAFS and XPS. The fresh catalyst comprised highly dispersed, heavily oxidised Pd particles. Cinnamyl alcohol oxidation resulted in the rapid reduction of surface palladium oxide and a small degree of concomitant particle growth. These structural changes coincided with a large drop in catalytic activity. Prereduced Pd/C exhibited a significantly lower initial oxidation rate demonstrating the importance of surface metal oxide in effecting catalytic oxidation. Use of a Pd black model system confirmed that the oxide→metal transformation was the cause, and not result, of catalyst deactivation.

Reactive processing of polymers:melt grafting of glycidyl methacrylate on ethylene propylene copolymer in the presence of a coagent

Glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) was grafted on ethylene-propylene copolymer during melt processing with peroxide initiation in the presence and absence of a more reactive comonomer (coagent), trimethylolpropane triacrylate (Tris). The characteristics of the grafting systems in terms of the grafting reaction yield and the nature and extent of the competing side reactions were examined. The homopolymers of GMA (Poly-GMA) and Tris (Poly-Tris) and the GMA-Tris copolymer (GMA-co-Tris) were synthesized and characterized. In the absence of the coagent, high levels of poly-GMA, which constituted the major competing reaction, was formed, giving rise to low GMA grafting levels. Further, this grafting system resulted in a high extent of gel formation and polymer crosslinking due to the high levels of peroxide needed to achieve optimum GMA grafting and a consequent large drop in the melt index (increased viscosity) of the polymer. In the presence of the coagent, however, the grafting system required much lower peroxide concentration, by almost an order of magnitude, to achieve the optimum grafting yield. The coagent-containing GMA-grafting system has also resulted in a drastic reduction in the extent of all competing reactions, and in particular, the GMA homopolymerization, leading to improved GMA grafting efficiency with no detectable gel or crosslinking. The mechanisms of the grafting reactions, in the presence and absence of Tris, are proposed.

Relationship between changes in postprandial glucagon, patient characteristics, and response to lixisenatide as add-on to oral antidiabetics

Background and aims: Lixisenatide, a once-daily prandial glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, reduces postprandial (PP) glycaemic excursions and HbA 1c . We report an exploratory analysis of the GetGoal-M and S trials in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with different changes in PP glucagon levels in response to lixisenatide treatment. Materials and methods: Patients (n=423) were stratified by their change in 2 hour PP glucagon level between baseline evaluation and Week 24 of treat - ment with lixisenatide as add-on to oral antidiabetics (OADs) into groups of Greater Change (GC; n=213) or Smaller Change (SC; n=210) in plasma glucagon levels (median change -23.57 ng/L). ANOVA and Chi-squared tests were used for the comparison of continuous and categorical variables, respec - tively. Baseline and endpoint continuous measurements in each group were compared using paired t -tests. Results: Mean change from baseline in 2 hour PP glucagon levels for the GC vs SC groups was -47.19 vs -0.59 ng/L (p<0.0001), respectively. Patients in the GC group had a shorter mean duration of diabetes (7.3 vs 9.0 years; p=0.0036) and lesser OAD use (4.5 vs 5.7 years; p=0.0092) than those in the SC group. Patients in the GC group had a greater mean reduction in HbA 1c (-1.10 vs -0.67%; p<0.0001), fasting plasma glucose (FPG; -25.20 vs -9.30 mg/dL [p<0.0001]), PP plasma glucose (PPG; -129.40 vs -78.22 mg/dL [p<0.0001]), and a greater drop in weight (-2.27 vs -1.17 kg; p=0.0002) and body mass index (-0.84 vs -0.44 kg/m 2 ; p=0.0002) than those in the SC group. More patients in the GC group also achieved composite endpoints, including HbA 1c <7% with no symptomatic hypoglycaemia and no weight gain (40.38 vs 19.52%; p<0.0001), than in the SC group. Conclusion: Greater reductions in PP glucagon associated with lixisenatide as add-on to OADs in patients with T2DM are also associated with greater reductions in HbA1c, FPG, PPG, and greater weight loss, highlighting the importance of glucagon suppression on therapeutic response. Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT00712673; NCT00713830 Supported by: Sanof