Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

Pricing of Liquidity Risks in London Stock Exchange

This thesis aims to investigate pricing of liquidity risks in London Stock Exchange. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model i.e. LCAPM developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) is being applied to test the influence of various liquidity risks on stock returns in London Stock Exchange. The Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing model provides a unified framework for the testing of liquidity risks. All the common stocks listed and delisted for the period of 2000 to 2014 are included in the data sample. The study has incorporated three different measures of liquidity – Percent Quoted Spread, Amihud (2002) and Turnover. The reason behind the application of three different liquidity measures is the multi-dimensional nature of liquidity. Firm fixed effects panel regression is applied for the estimation of LCAPM. However, the results are robust according to Fama-Macbeth regressions. The results of the study indicates that liquidity risks in the form of (i) level of liquidity, (ii) commonality in liquidity (iii) flight to liquidity, (iv) depressed wealth effect and market return as well as aggregate liquidity risk are priced at London Stock Exchange. However, the results are sensitive to the choice of liquidity measures.

NMR studies of the exchange reactions of CH3CN.BX3 with excess CH3CN /|nJoseph Fogelman. -- 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : [s. n.],

Exchange reactions between molecular complexes and excess acid or base are well known and have been extensively surveyed in the literature(l). Since the exchange mechanism will, in some way involve the breaking of the labile donor-acceptor bond, it follows that a discussion of the factors relating to bonding in molecular complexes will be relevant. In general, a strong Lewis base and a strong Lewis acid form a stable adduct provided that certain stereochemical requirements are met. A strong Lewis base has the following characteristics (1),(2) (i) high electron density at the donor site. (ii) a non-bonded electron pair which has a low ionization potential (iii) electron donating substituents at the donor atom site. (iv) facile approach of the site of the Lewis base to the acceptor site as dictated by the steric hindrance of the substituents. Examples of typical Lewis bases are ethers, nitriles, ketones, alcohols, amines and phosphines. For a strong Lewis acid, the following properties are important:( i) low electron density at the acceptor site. (ii) electron withdrawing substituents. (iii) substituents which do not interfere with the close approach of the Lewis base. (iv) availability of a vacant orbital capable of accepting the lone electron pair of the donor atom. Examples of Lewis acids are the group III and IV halides such (M=B, AI, Ga, In) and MX4 - (M=Si, Ge, Sn, Pb). The relative bond strengths of molecular complexes have been investigated by:- (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v] (vi) dipole moment measurements (3). shifts of the carbonyl peaks in the IIIR. (4) ,(5), (6) .. NMR chemical shift data (4),(7),(8),(9). D.V. and visible spectrophotometric shifts (10),(11). equilibrium constant data (12), (13). heats of dissociation and heats of reactions (l~), (16), (17), (18), (19). Many experiments have bben carried out on boron trihalides in order to determine their relative acid strengths. Using pyridine, nitrobenzene, acetonitrile and trimethylamine as reference Lewis bases, it was found that the acid strength varied in order:RBx3 > BC1 3 >BF 3 • For the acetonitrile-boron trihalide and trimethylamine boron trihalide complexes in nitrobenzene, an-NMR study (7) showed that the shift to lower field was. greatest for the BB~3 adduct ~n~ smallest for the BF 3 which is in agreement with the acid strengths. If electronegativities of the substituents were the only important effect, and since c~ Br ,one would expect the electron density at the boron nucleus to vary as BF3

Oxygen exchange in galls of Eurosta solidaginis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Hypoxia in plant tissue should affect animals living within. Gallmakers stimulate their plant hosts to produce the gall they inhabit and feed on, and also influence the gall phenotype for other adaptations, such as defense against predators. The potential for hypoxia in galls of Eurosta solidaginis was studied in the context of potential adaptations to gall oxygen level, using a combination of direct measurement, mathematical modelling, and respirometry on both gallmakers and hosts. Modelling results suggested mild hypoxia tolerable to the larva persists for most of the growth season, whereas more severe hypoxia may occur earlier in fully-grown young galls. Field data from one of the two years studied showed hypoxia more severe than expected, and coincided with adverse weather conditions and high larval mortality. The hypoxia may be related to host response to adverse weather. Whether hypoxia directly caused larval mortality requires further study.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Étude sur l’influence du vocabulaire utilisé pour l’indexation des images en contexte de repérage multilingue

Depuis quelques années, Internet est devenu un média incontournable pour la diffusion de ressources multilingues. Cependant, les différences linguistiques constituent souvent un obstacle majeur aux échanges de documents scientifiques, culturels, pédagogiques et commerciaux. En plus de cette diversité linguistique, on constate le développement croissant de bases de données et de collections composées de différents types de documents textuels ou multimédias, ce qui complexifie également le processus de repérage documentaire. En général, on considère l’image comme « libre » au point de vue linguistique. Toutefois, l’indexation en vocabulaire contrôlé ou libre (non contrôlé) confère à l’image un statut linguistique au même titre que tout document textuel, ce qui peut avoir une incidence sur le repérage. Le but de notre recherche est de vérifier l’existence de différences entre les caractéristiques de deux approches d’indexation pour les images ordinaires représentant des objets de la vie quotidienne, en vocabulaire contrôlé et en vocabulaire libre, et entre les résultats obtenus au moment de leur repérage. Cette étude suppose que les deux approches d’indexation présentent des caractéristiques communes, mais également des différences pouvant influencer le repérage de l’image. Cette recherche permet de vérifier si l’une ou l’autre de ces approches d’indexation surclasse l’autre, en termes d’efficacité, d’efficience et de satisfaction du chercheur d’images, en contexte de repérage multilingue. Afin d’atteindre le but fixé par cette recherche, deux objectifs spécifiques sont définis : identifier les caractéristiques de chacune des deux approches d’indexation de l’image ordinaire représentant des objets de la vie quotidienne pouvant influencer le repérage, en contexte multilingue et exposer les différences sur le plan de l’efficacité, de l’efficience et de la satisfaction du chercheur d’images à repérer des images ordinaires représentant des objets de la vie quotidienne indexées à l’aide d’approches offrant des caractéristiques variées, en contexte multilingue. Trois modes de collecte des données sont employés : l’analyse des termes utilisés pour l’indexation des images, la simulation du repérage d’un ensemble d’images indexées selon chacune des formes d’indexation à l’étude réalisée auprès de soixante répondants, et le questionnaire administré aux participants pendant et après la simulation du repérage. Quatre mesures sont définies pour cette recherche : l’efficacité du repérage d’images, mesurée par le taux de succès du repérage calculé à l’aide du nombre d’images repérées; l’efficience temporelle, mesurée par le temps, en secondes, utilisé par image repérée; l’efficience humaine, mesurée par l’effort humain, en nombre de requêtes formulées par image repérée et la satisfaction du chercheur d’images, mesurée par son autoévaluation suite à chaque tâche de repérage effectuée. Cette recherche montre que sur le plan de l’indexation de l’image ordinaire représentant des objets de la vie quotidienne, les approches d’indexation étudiées diffèrent fondamentalement l’une de l’autre, sur le plan terminologique, perceptuel et structurel. En outre, l’analyse des caractéristiques des deux approches d’indexation révèle que si la langue d’indexation est modifiée, les caractéristiques varient peu au sein d’une même approche d’indexation. Finalement, cette recherche souligne que les deux approches d’indexation à l’étude offrent une performance de repérage des images ordinaires représentant des objets de la vie quotidienne différente sur le plan de l’efficacité, de l’efficience et de la satisfaction du chercheur d’images, selon l’approche et la langue utilisées pour l’indexation.

Re-engineering and Re-defining University Libraries in the context of modern Information and Communication Technologies: a study with special reference to the University Libraries in Kerala

Information and communication technologies are the tools that underpin the emerging “Knowledge Society”. Exchange of information or knowledge between people and through networks of people has always taken place. But the ICT has radically changed the magnitude of this exchange, and thus factors such as timeliness of information and information dissemination patterns have become more important than ever.Since information and knowledge are so vital for the all round human development, libraries and institutions that manage these resources are indeed invaluable. So, the Library and Information Centres have a key role in the acquisition, processing, preservation and dissemination of information and knowledge. ln the modern context, library is providing service based on different types of documents such as manuscripts, printed, digital, etc. At the same time, acquisition, access, process, service etc. of these resources have become complicated now than ever before. The lCT made instrumental to extend libraries beyond the physical walls of a building and providing assistance in navigating and analyzing tremendous amounts of knowledge with a variety of digital tools. Thus, modern libraries are increasingly being re-defined as places to get unrestricted access to information in many formats and from many sources.The research was conducted in the university libraries in Kerala State, India. lt was identified that even though the information resources are flooding world over and several technologies have emerged to manage the situation for providing effective services to its clientele, most of the university libraries in Kerala were unable to exploit these technologies at maximum level. Though the libraries have automated many of their functions, wide gap prevails between the possible services and provided services. There are many good examples world over in the application of lCTs in libraries for the maximization of services and many such libraries have adopted the principles of reengineering and re-defining as a management strategy. Hence this study was targeted to look into how effectively adopted the modern lCTs in our libraries for maximizing the efficiency of operations and services and whether the principles of re-engineering and- redefining can be applied towards this.Data‘ was collected from library users, viz; student as well as faculty users; library ,professionals and university librarians, using structured questionnaires. This has been .supplemented by-observation of working of the libraries, discussions and interviews with the different types of users and staff, review of literature, etc. Personal observation of the organization set up, management practices, functions, facilities, resources, utilization of information resources and facilities by the users, etc. of the university libraries in Kerala have been made. Statistical techniques like percentage, mean, weighted mean, standard deviation, correlation, trend analysis, etc. have been used to analyse data.All the libraries could exploit only a very few possibilities of modern lCTs and hence they could not achieve effective Universal Bibliographic Control and desired efficiency and effectiveness in services. Because of this, the users as well as professionals are dissatisfied. Functional effectiveness in acquisition, access and process of information resources in various formats, development and maintenance of OPAC and WebOPAC, digital document delivery to remote users, Web based clearing of library counter services and resources, development of full-text databases, digital libraries and institutional repositories, consortia based operations for e-journals and databases, user education and information literacy, professional development with stress on lCTs, network administration and website maintenance, marketing of information, etc. are major areas need special attention to improve the situation. Finance, knowledge level on ICTs among library staff, professional dynamism and leadership, vision and support of the administrators and policy makers, prevailing educational set up and social environment in the state, etc. are some of the major hurdles in reaping the maximum possibilities of lCTs by the university libraries in Kerala. The principles of Business Process Re-engineering are found suitable to effectively apply to re-structure and redefine the operations and service system of the libraries. Most of the conventional departments or divisions prevailing in the university libraries were functioning as watertight compartments and their existing management system was more rigid to adopt the principles of change management. Hence, a thorough re-structuring of the divisions was indicated. Consortia based activities and pooling and sharing of information resources was advocated to meet the varied needs of the users in the main campuses and off campuses of the universities, affiliated colleges and remote stations. A uniform staff policy similar to that prevailing in CSIR, DRDO, ISRO, etc. has been proposed by the study not only in the university libraries in kerala but for the entire country.Restructuring of Lis education,integrated and Planned development of school,college,research and public library systems,etc.were also justified for reaping maximum benefits of the modern ICTs.

Foreign exchange reserves in India and China

Professor Irma Glicman Adelman, an Irish Economist working in California University at Berkely, in her research work on ‘Development Over Two Centuries’, which is published in the Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1995, has identified that India, along with China, would be one of the largest economies in this 21st Century. She has stated that the period 1700 - 1820 is the period of Netherlands, the period 1820 - 1890 is the period of England the period 1890 - 2000 is the period of America and this 21st Century is the century of China and India. World Bank has also identified India as one of the leading players of this century after China. India will be third largest economy after USA and China. India will challenge the Global Economic Order in the next 15 years. India will overtake Italian economy in 2015, England economy in 2020, Japan economy in 2025 and USA economy in 2050 (China will overtake Japan economy in 2016 and USA economy in 2027). India has the following advantages compared with other economies. India is 4th largest GDP in the world in terms of Purchasing Power. India is third fastest growing economy in the world after China and Vietnam. Service sector contributes around 57% of GDP. The share of agriculture is around 17% and Manufacture is 16% in 2005 - 2006. This is a character of a developed country. Expected GDP growth rate is 10% shortly (It has come down from 9.2% in 2006 - 2007 to 6.2% during 2008 - 2009 due to recession. It is only a temporary phenomenon). India has $284 billion as Foreign Exchange Reserve as on today. India had just $1 billion as Foreign Exchange Reserve when it opened its economy in the year 1991. In this research paper an attempt has been made to study the two booming economies of the globe with respect to their foreign exchange reserves. This study mainly based on secondary data published by respective governments and various studies done on this area

Development of Hierarchical Clustering Techniques for Gridded Data from Mixed Data Sequences

Knowledge discovery in databases is the non-trivial process of identifying valid, novel potentially useful and ultimately understandable patterns from data. The term Data mining refers to the process which does the exploratory analysis on the data and builds some model on the data. To infer patterns from data, data mining involves different approaches like association rule mining, classification techniques or clustering techniques. Among the many data mining techniques, clustering plays a major role, since it helps to group the related data for assessing properties and drawing conclusions. Most of the clustering algorithms act on a dataset with uniform format, since the similarity or dissimilarity between the data points is a significant factor in finding out the clusters. If a dataset consists of mixed attributes, i.e. a combination of numerical and categorical variables, a preferred approach is to convert different formats into a uniform format. The research study explores the various techniques to convert the mixed data sets to a numerical equivalent, so as to make it equipped for applying the statistical and similar algorithms. The results of clustering mixed category data after conversion to numeric data type have been demonstrated using a crime data set. The thesis also proposes an extension to the well known algorithm for handling mixed data types, to deal with data sets having only categorical data. The proposed conversion has been validated on a data set corresponding to breast cancer. Moreover, another issue with the clustering process is the visualization of output. Different geometric techniques like scatter plot, or projection plots are available, but none of the techniques display the result projecting the whole database but rather demonstrate attribute-pair wise analysis

Information Exchange and Fusion in Dynamic and Heterogeneous Distributed Environments

Context awareness, dynamic reconfiguration at runtime and heterogeneity are key characteristics of future distributed systems, particularly in ubiquitous and mobile computing scenarios. The main contributions of this dissertation are theoretical as well as architectural concepts facilitating information exchange and fusion in heterogeneous and dynamic distributed environments. Our main focus is on bridging the heterogeneity issues and, at the same time, considering uncertain, imprecise and unreliable sensor information in information fusion and reasoning approaches. A domain ontology is used to establish a common vocabulary for the exchanged information. We thereby explicitly support different representations for the same kind of information and provide Inter-Representation Operations that convert between them. Special account is taken of the conversion of associated meta-data that express uncertainty and impreciseness. The Unscented Transformation, for example, is applied to propagate Gaussian normal distributions across highly non-linear Inter-Representation Operations. Uncertain sensor information is fused using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence as it allows explicit modelling of partial and complete ignorance. We also show how to incorporate the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence into probabilistic reasoning schemes such as Hidden Markov Models in order to be able to consider the uncertainty of sensor information when deriving high-level information from low-level data. For all these concepts we provide architectural support as a guideline for developers of innovative information exchange and fusion infrastructures that are particularly targeted at heterogeneous dynamic environments. Two case studies serve as proof of concept. The first case study focuses on heterogeneous autonomous robots that have to spontaneously form a cooperative team in order to achieve a common goal. The second case study is concerned with an approach for user activity recognition which serves as baseline for a context-aware adaptive application. Both case studies demonstrate the viability and strengths of the proposed solution and emphasize that the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence should be preferred to pure probability theory in applications involving non-linear Inter-Representation Operations.

Financial Information Mediation: A Case Study of Standards Integration for Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment Using the COIN Mediation Technology

Each player in the financial industry, each bank, stock exchange, government agency, or insurance company operates its own financial information system or systems. By its very nature, financial information, like the money that it represents, changes hands. Therefore the interoperation of financial information systems is the cornerstone of the financial services they support. E-services frameworks such as web services are an unprecedented opportunity for the flexible interoperation of financial systems. Naturally the critical economic role and the complexity of financial information led to the development of various standards. Yet standards alone are not the panacea: different groups of players use different standards or different interpretations of the same standard. We believe that the solution lies in the convergence of flexible E-services such as web-services and semantically rich meta-data as promised by the semantic Web; then a mediation architecture can be used for the documentation, identification, and resolution of semantic conflicts arising from the interoperation of heterogeneous financial services. In this paper we illustrate the nature of the problem in the Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment (EBPP) industry and the viability of the solution we propose. We describe and analyze the integration of services using four different formats: the IFX, OFX and SWIFT standards, and an example proprietary format. To accomplish this integration we use the COntext INterchange (COIN) framework. The COIN architecture leverages a model of sources and receivers’ contexts in reference to a rich domain model or ontology for the description and resolution of semantic heterogeneity.

COMP6218 Web Architecture - Web Content Formats

Plain Text - ASCII, Unicode, UTF-8 Content Formats - XML-based formats (RSS, MathML, SVG, Office) + PDF Text based data formats: CSV, JSON

Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.