A data mining driven risk profiling method for road asset management

Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

Fraud risk and the visibility of carbon

In recent years, carbon has been increasingly rendered ‘visible’ both discursively and through political processes that have imbued it with economic value. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been constructed as social and environmental costs and their reduction or avoidance as social and economic gain. The ‘marketisation’ of carbon, which has been facilitated through various compliance schemes such as the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the Kyoto Protocol, the proposed Australian Emissions Reduction Scheme and through the voluntary carbon credit market, have attempted to bring carbon into the ‘foreground’ as an economic liability and/or opportunity. Accompanying the increasing economic visibility of carbon are reports of frauds and scams – the ‘gaming of carbon markets’(Chan 2010). As Lohmann (2010: 21) points out, ‘what are conventionally classed as scams or frauds are an inevitable feature of carbon offset markets, not something that could be eliminated by regulation targeting the specific businesses or state agencies involved’. This paper critiques the disparate discourses of fraud risk in carbon markets and examines cases of fraud within emerging landscapes of green criminology.

Lesion selection by melanoma high-risk consumers during skin self-examination using mobile teledermoscopy

Mobile teledermatoscopy (MTD) for the early detection of skin cancer uses smartphones with dermatoscope attachments to magnify, capture, and transfer images remotely.1 Using the asymmetry–color variation (AC) rule, consumers achieve dermoscopy sensitivity of 92.9% to 94.0% and specificity of 62.0% to 64.2% for melanoma.2 This pilot randomized trial assessed lesions of concern selected by consumers at high risk of melanoma using MTD plus the AC rule (intervention, n = 10) or the AC rule alone (control, n = 12) during skin self-examination (SSE). Also measured were lesion location patterns, lesions overlooked by participants, provisional clinical diagnoses, likelihood of malignant tumor, and participant pressure to excise lesions.

A dedicated retrieval and transfer service : the QUARTS project

Background The transfer and/or retrieval of a critically patient is inherently dangerous not only for the patient but for staff as well. The quality and experience of unplanned transfers can influence patient mortality and morbidity. However, international evidence suggests that dedicated transfer/retrieval teams can improve mortality and morbidity outcomes. Aims The initial aim of this paper is to describe an in-house competency-based training programme, which encompasses the STaR approach to develop members of our existing nursing team to be part of the dedicated transfer/retrieval service. The paper also presents audit data findings which examined the source of referrals, number of patients actually transferred and clinical status of those being transferred. Results Audit data illustrate that the most frequent source of referrals comes from Accident and Emergency and the Surgical Directorate with the most common presenting condition being cardio-respiratory failure or arrest. Audit data reveal that the number of patients actually transferred or retrieved is relatively small (33%) compared with the overall number of requests for assistance. However, 36% of those patients transferred had a level 2 or level 3 acuity status that necessitated the admission to a critical care area. Conclusions A number of studies have concluded that the ill-experienced and ill-equipped transfer team can place patients’ at serious risk of harm. Whether planned or unplanned, dedicated critical care transfer/retrieval teams have been shown to reduce patient mortality and morbidity.

Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

The association between perception of health during pregnancy and the risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospective study

There is some evidence that self-rated perceptions of health are predictive of objective health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the prospective association between perceptions of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factors of mothers 21 years after the pregnancy. Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community-based prospective birth cohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1981. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the pregnancy when compared with women with a straight forward pregnancy (event rate of 5.2 versus 2.6%). Women who experienced complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during their pregnancy were also at 30% increased odds (adjusted OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6) of having hypertension 21years later (event rate of 25.7 versus 20%). As a whole, our study sug- gests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward preg- nancy were likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21years after that pregnancy.

Methicillin Resistance In Staphylococci : Horizontal Transfer of Mobile Genetic Element (SCCmec) Between Staphylococcal Species

Regardless of the existence of antibiotics, infectious diseases are the leading causes of death in the world. Staphylococci cause many infections of varying severity, although they can also exist peacefully in many parts of the human body. Most often Staphylococcus aureus colonises the nose, and that colonisation is considered to be a risk factor for spread of this bacterium. S. aureus is considered to be the most important Staphylococcus species. It poses a challenge to the field of medicine, and one of the most problematic aspects is the drastic increase of the methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) strains in hospitals and community world-wide, including Finland. In addition, most of the clinical coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CNS) isolates express resistance to methicillin. Methicillin-resistance in S. aureus is caused by the mecA gene that encodes an extra penicillin-binding protein (PBP) 2a. The mecA gene is found in a mobile genomic island called staphylococcal chromosome cassette mec (SCCmec). The SCCmec consists of the mec gene and cassette chromosome recombinase (ccr)gene complexes. The areas of the SCCmec element outside the ccr and mec complex are known as the junkyard J regions. So far, eight types of SCCmec(SCCmec I- SCCmec VIII) and a number of variants have been described. The SCCmec island is an acquired element in S. aureus. Lately, it appears that CNS might be the storage place of the SCCmec that aid the S. aureus by providing it with the resistant elements. The SCCmec is known to exist only in the staphylococci. The aim of the present study was to investigate the horizontal transfer of SCCmec between the S. aureus and CNS. One specific aim was to study whether or not some methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) strains are more inclined to receive the SCCmec than others. This was done by comparing the genetic background of clinical MSSA isolates in the health care facilities of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District in 2001 to the representatives of the epidemic MRSA (EMRSA) genotypes, which have been encountered in Finland during 1992-2004. Majority of the clinical MSSA strains were related to the EMRSA strains. This finding suggests that horizontal transfer of SCCmec from unknown donor(s) to several MSSA background genotypes has occurred in Finland. The molecular characteristics of representative clinical methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) isolates recovered in Finnish hospitals between 1990 and 1998 were also studied, examining their genetic relation to each other and to the internationally recognised MRSE clones as well, so as to ascertain the common traits between the SCCmec elements in MRSE and MRSA. The clinical MRSE strains were genetically related to each other; eleven PFGE types were associated with sequence type ST2 that has been identified world-wide. A single MRSE strain may possess two SCCmec types III and IV, which were recognised among the MRSA strains. Moreover, six months after the onset of an outbreak of MRSA possessing a SCCmec type V in a long-term care facility in Northern Finland (LTCF) in 2003, the SCCmec element of nasally carried methicillin-resistant staphylococci was studied. Among the residents of a LTCF, nasal carriage of MR-CNS was common with extreme diversity of SCCmec types. MRSE was the most prevalent CNS species. Horizontal transfer of SCCmec elements is speculated to be based on the sharing of SCCmec type V between MRSA and MRSE in the same person. Additionally, the SCCmec element of the clinical human S. sciuri isolates was studied. Some of the SCCmec regions were present in S. sciuri and the pls gene was common in it. This finding supports the hypothesis of genetic exchange happening between staphylococcal species. Evaluation of the epidemiology of methicillin-resistant staphylococcal colonisation is necessary in order to understand the apparent emergence of these strains and to develop appropriate control strategies. SCCmec typing is essential for understanding the emergence of MRSA strains from CNS, considering that the MR-CNS may represent the gene pool for the continuous creation of new SCCmec types from which MRSA might originate.

Serum bilirubin concentration is modified by UGT1A1 Haplotypes and influences risk of type-2 diabetes in the Norfolk Island Genetic Isolate

Background Located in the Pacific Ocean between Australia and New Zealand, the unique population isolate of Norfolk Island has been shown to exhibit increased prevalence of metabolic disorders (type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease) compared to mainland Australia. We investigated this well-established genetic isolate, utilising its unique genomic structure to increase the ability to detect related genetic markers. A pedigree-based genome-wide association study of 16 routinely collected blood-based clinical traits in 382 Norfolk Island individuals was performed. Results A striking association peak was located at chromosome 2q37.1 for both total bilirubin and direct bilirubin, with 29 SNPs reaching statistical significance (P < 1.84 × 10−7). Strong linkage disequilibrium was observed across a 200 kb region spanning the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase family, including UGT1A1, an enzyme known to metabolise bilirubin. Given the epidemiological literature suggesting negative association between CVD-risk and serum bilirubin we further explored potential associations using stepwise multivariate regression, revealing significant association between direct bilirubin concentration and type-2 diabetes risk. In the Norfolk Island cohort increased direct bilirubin was associated with a 28 % reduction in type-2 diabetes risk (OR: 0.72, 95 % CI: 0.57-0.91, P = 0.005). When adjusted for genotypic effects the overall model was validated, with the adjusted model predicting a 30 % reduction in type-2 diabetes risk with increasing direct bilirubin concentrations (OR: 0.70, 95 % CI: 0.53-0.89, P = 0.0001). Conclusions In summary, a pedigree-based GWAS of blood-based clinical traits in the Norfolk Island population has identified variants within the UDPGT family directly associated with serum bilirubin levels, which is in turn implicated with reduced risk of developing type-2 diabetes within this population.

A multi-centre open-label randomised non-inferiority trial comparing watchful waiting to antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media without perforation in low-risk urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (the WATCH trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Treatment guidelines recommend watchful waiting for children older than 2 years with acute otitis media (AOM) without perforation, unless they are at high risk of complications. The high prevalence of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities leads these children to be classified as high risk. Urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are at lower risk of complications, but evidence to support the subsequent recommendation for watchful waiting in this population is lacking. Methods/Design This non-inferiority multi-centre randomised controlled trial will determine whether watchful waiting is non-inferior to immediate antibiotics for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children with AOM without perforation. Children aged 2 − 16 years with AOM who are considered at low risk for complications will be recruited from six participating urban primary health care services across Australia. We will obtain informed consent from each participant or their guardian. The primary outcome is clinical resolution on day 7 (no pain, no fever of at least 38 °C, no bulging eardrum and no complications of AOM such as perforation or mastoiditis) as assessed by general practitioners or nurse practitioners. Participants and outcome assessors will not be blinded to treatment. With a sample size of 198 children in each arm, we have 80 % power to detect a non-inferiority margin of up to 10 % at a significance level of 5 %, assuming clinical improvement of at least 80 % in both groups. Allowing for a 20 % dropout rate, we aim to recruit 495 children. We will analyse both by intention-to-treat and per protocol. We will assess the cost- effectiveness of watchful waiting compared to immediate antibiotic prescription. We will also report on the implementation of the trial from the perspectives of parents/carers, health professionals and researchers. Discussion The trial will provide evidence for the safety and effectiveness of watchful waiting for the management of AOM in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living in urban settings who are considered to be at low risk of complications.

Protocol for assessing maternal, environmental and epigenetic risk factors for dental caries in children

Background Expenditure on dental and oral health services in Australia is $3.4 billion AUD annually. This is the sixth highest health cost and accounts for 7 % of total national health expenditure. Approximately 49 % of Australian children aged 6 years have caries experience in their deciduous teeth and this is rising. The aetiology of dental caries involves a complex interplay of individual, behavioural, social, economic, political and environmental conditions, and there is increasing interest in genetic predisposition and epigenetic modification. Methods The Oral Health Sub-study; a cross sectional study of a birth cohort began in November 2012 by examining mothers and their children who were six years old by the time of initiation of the study, which is ongoing. Data from detailed questionnaires of families from birth onwards and data on mothers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices towards oral health collected at the time of clinical examination are used. Subjects’ height, weight and mid-waist circumference are taken and Body Mass Index (BMI) computed, using an electronic Bio-Impedance balance. Dental caries experience is scored using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). Saliva is collected for physiological measures. Salivary Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid (DNA) is extracted for genetic studies including epigenetics using the SeqCap Epi Enrichment Kit. Targets of interest are being confirmed by pyrosequencing to identify potential epigenetic markers of caries risk. Discussion This study will examine a wide range of potential determinants for childhood dental caries and evaluate inter-relationships amongst them. The findings will provide an evidence base to plan and implement improved preventive strategies.

MATING COMPETITION AND INTERGROUP TRANSFER OF MALES IN TIBETAN MACAQUES (MACACA-THIBETANA) AT MT EMEI, CHINA

In five groups of seasonally provisioned Tibetan macaques (Macaca thibetana) at Mt. Emei, males were sampled for wounds as an indicator of their competition for females during about 80 days in the 1987 mating season. Quantitative data on intergroup transfer were collected in a period between June 1986 and December 1987. The young adult (YA) males, the most active age-class in mating activity and intergroup transfer, received most of the wounds. Wounds tended to appear more in the front of body for YA and subadults (SA) than they did for middle-old aged (MO) males. This implies that some of the MO males were more active and aggressive in the fights. During the 1.5 year period, 5/6 of the YA and 5/17 of the MO males made intergroup shifts. Although YA males faced a high risk of receiving wounds at transfer, they usually rose in rank. On the other hand, the MO males transferred more smoothly but dropped in rank. The peripheral SA males, which rarely emigrated in the population, were an active component in determining the wounding rate, and the rate and direction of male migration. Three SA immigrants died of severe attacks made by resident males in 1988 and 1991. Adult sex ratios and their variations were considerably reduced with male nonrandom shifts and better conservation of the population.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Conditional cash transfer programs and the representations of poverty in Bolivia and Peru

Bolivia and Peru adopted the same instruments of social policy —conditional cash transfer programs— to solve the same public problems under different political regimes. By means of the qualitative methodology of discourse analysis, this paper studies the representations of poverty and State made by key actors of those social programs. Underlying more differences than similarities, one demonstrates that the same social policy is linked to opposite social representations of poverty and the State role in every country. The main explanation for this is, far from being imposed by international organizations, those programs are adopted and adapted by each political regime.

The diversification and financial performance of US credit unions

For US credit unions, revenue from non-interest sources has increased significantly in recent years. We investigate the impact of revenue diversification on financial performance for the period 1993–2004. The impact of a change in strategy that alters the share of non-interest income is decomposed into a direct exposure effect, reflecting the difference between interest and non-interest bearing activities, and an indirect exposure effect which reflects the effect of the institution’s own degree of diversification. On both risk-adjusted and unadjusted returns measures, a positive direct exposure effect is outweighed by a negative indirect exposure effect for all but the largest credit unions. This may imply that similar diversification strategies are not appropriate for large and small credit unions. Small credit unions should eschew diversification and continue to operate as simple savings and loan institutions, while large credit unions should be encouraged to exploit new product opportunities around their core expertise.