Student academic performance stochastic simulator based on the Monte Carlo method

In this paper, a computer-based tool is developed to analyze student performance along a given curriculum. The proposed software makes use of historical data to compute passing/failing probabilities and simulates future student academic performance based on stochastic programming methods (MonteCarlo) according to the specific university regulations. This allows to compute the academic performance rates for the specific subjects of the curriculum for each semester, as well as the overall rates (the set of subjects in the semester), which are the efficiency rate and the success rate. Additionally, we compute the rates for the Bachelors degree, which are the graduation rate measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled or taking an extra year and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits of the curriculum with respect to the credits really taken). In Spain, these metrics have been defined by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA). Moreover, the sensitivity of the performance metrics to some of the parameters of the simulator is analyzed using statistical tools (Design of Experiments). The simulator has been adapted to the curriculum characteristics of the Bachelor in Engineering Technologies at the Technical University of Madrid(UPM).

Computer Networks Virtualization with GNS3: Evaluating a solution to optimize resources and achieve a distance learning

Designing educational resources allow students to modify their learning process. In particular, on-line and downloadable educational resources have been successfully used in engineering education the last years [1]. Usually, these resources are free and accessible from web. In addition, they are designed and developed by lecturers and used by their students. But, they are rarely developed by students in order to be used by other students. In this work-in-progress, lecturers and students are working together to implement educational resources, which can be used by students to improve the learning process of computer networks subject in engineering studies. In particular, network topologies to model LAN (Local Area Network) and MAN (Metropolitan Area Network) are virtualized in order to simulate the behavior of the links and nodes when they are interconnected with different physical and logical design.

Efficacy of an Internet-based, individually tailored smoking cessation program: A randomized trial

Introduction: Self-help computer-based programs are easily accessible and cost-effective interventions with a great recruitment potential. However, each program is different and results of meta-analyses may not apply to each new program; therefore, evaluations of new programs are warranted. The aim of this study was to assess the marginal efficacy of a computer-based, individually tailored program (the Coach) over and above the use of a comprehensive Internet smoking cessation website. Methods: A two-group randomized controlled trial was conducted. The control group only accessed the website, whereas the intervention group received the Coach in addition. Follow-up was conducted by e-mail after three and six months (self-administrated questionnaires). Of 1120 participants, 579 (51.7%) responded after three months and 436 (38.9%) after six months. The primary outcome was self-reported smoking abstinence over four weeks. Results: Counting dropouts as smokers, there were no statistically significant differences between intervention and control groups in smoking cessation rates after three months (20.2% vs. 17.5%, p¼0.25, odds ratio (OR)¼1.20) and six months (17% vs. 15.5%, p¼0.52, OR¼1.12). Excluding dropouts from the analysis, there were statistically significant differences after three months (42% vs. 31.6%, p¼0.01, OR¼1.57), but not after six months (46.1% vs. 37.8%, p¼0.081, OR¼1.41). The program also significantly increased motivation to quit after three months and self-efficacy after three and six months. Discussion: An individually tailored program delivered via the Internet and by e-mail in addition to a smoking cessation website did not significantly increase smoking cessation rates, but it increased motivation to quit and self-efficacy.

Time-series Luminance Distribution Maps: implementation of annual daylight simulation methods for occupant visual comfort analysis

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Contributions to Physics-Based Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum Information Processing with spin systems: from modeling to possible implementations

The physical implementation of quantum information processing is one of the major challenges of current research. In the last few years, several theoretical proposals and experimental demonstrations on a small number of qubits have been carried out, but a quantum computing architecture that is straightforwardly scalable, universal, and realizable with state-of-the-art technology is still lacking. In particular, a major ultimate objective is the construction of quantum simulators, yielding massively increased computational power in simulating quantum systems. Here we investigate promising routes towards the actual realization of a quantum computer, based on spin systems. The first one employs molecular nanomagnets with a doublet ground state to encode each qubit and exploits the wide chemical tunability of these systems to obtain the proper topology of inter-qubit interactions. Indeed, recent advances in coordination chemistry allow us to arrange these qubits in chains, with tailored interactions mediated by magnetic linkers. These act as switches of the effective qubit-qubit coupling, thus enabling the implementation of one- and two-qubit gates. Molecular qubits can be controlled either by uniform magnetic pulses, either by local electric fields. We introduce here two different schemes for quantum information processing with either global or local control of the inter-qubit interaction and demonstrate the high performance of these platforms by simulating the system time evolution with state-of-the-art parameters. The second architecture we propose is based on a hybrid spin-photon qubit encoding, which exploits the best characteristic of photons, whose mobility is exploited to efficiently establish long-range entanglement, and spin systems, which ensure long coherence times. The setup consists of spin ensembles coherently coupled to single photons within superconducting coplanar waveguide resonators. The tunability of the resonators frequency is exploited as the only manipulation tool to implement a universal set of quantum gates, by bringing the photons into/out of resonance with the spin transition. The time evolution of the system subject to the pulse sequence used to implement complex quantum algorithms has been simulated by numerically integrating the master equation for the system density matrix, thus including the harmful effects of decoherence. Finally a scheme to overcome the leakage of information due to inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble is pointed out. Both the proposed setups are based on state-of-the-art technological achievements. By extensive numerical experiments we show that their performance is remarkably good, even for the implementation of long sequences of gates used to simulate interesting physical models. Therefore, the here examined systems are really promising buildingblocks of future scalable architectures and can be used for proof-of-principle experiments of quantum information processing and quantum simulation.

The development of a multi-function computer-assisted instruction system using a hierarchical database structure as the lesson compendium.

Computer-Based Learning systems of one sort or another have been in existence for almost 20 years, but they have yet to achieve real credibility within Commerce, Industry or Education. A variety of reasons could be postulated for this, typically: - cost - complexity - inefficiency - inflexibility - tedium Obviously different systems deserve different levels and types of criticism, but it still remains true that Computer-Based Learning (CBL) is falling significantly short of its potential. Experience of a small, but highly successful CBL system within a large, geographically distributed industry (the National Coal Board) prompted an investigation into currently available packages, the original intention being to purchase the most suitable software and run it on existing computer hardware, alongside existing software systems. It became apparent that none of the available CBL packages were suitable, and a decision was taken to develop an in-house Computer-Assisted Instruction system according to the following criteria: - cheap to run; - easy to author course material; - easy to use; - requires no computing knowledge to use (as either an author or student) ; - efficient in the use of computer resources; - has a comprehensive range of facilities at all levels. This thesis describes the initial investigation, resultant observations and the design, development and implementation of the SCHOOL system. One of the principal characteristics c£ SCHOOL is that it uses a hierarchical database structure for the storage of course material - thereby providing inherently a great deal of the power, flexibility and efficiency originally required. Trials using the SCHOOL system on IBM 303X series equipment are also detailed, along with proposed and current development work on what is essentially an operational CBL system within a large-scale Industrial environment.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

Individual differences in human-computer interaction

This thesis initially presents an 'assay' of the literature pertaining to individual differences in human-computer interaction. A series of experiments is then reported, designed to investigate the association between a variety of individual characteristics and various computer task and interface factors. Predictor variables included age, computer expertise, and psychometric tests of spatial visualisation, spatial memory, logical reasoning, associative memory, and verbal ability. These were studied in relation to a variety of computer-based tacks, including: (1) word processing and its component elements; (ii) the location of target words within passages of text; (iii) the navigation of networks and menus; (iv) command generation using menus and command line interfaces; (v) the search and selection of icons and text labels; (vi) information retrieval. A measure of self-report workload was also included in several of these experiments. The main experimental findings included: (i) an interaction between spatial ability and the manipulation of semantic but not spatial interface content; (ii) verbal ability being only predictive of certain task components of word processing; (iii) age differences in word processing and information retrieval speed but not accuracy; (iv) evidence of compensatory strategies being employed by older subjects; (v) evidence of performance strategy differences which disadvantaged high spatial subjects in conditions of low spatial information content; (vi) interactive effects of associative memory, expertise and command strategy; (vii) an association between logical reasoning and word processing but not information retrieval; (viii) an interaction between expertise and cognitive demand; and (ix) a stronger association between cognitive ability and novice performance than expert performance.

A study of the micro-mechanics of granular media

The development of more realistic constitutive models for granular media, such as sand, requires ingredients which take into account the internal micro-mechanical response to deformation. Unfortunately, at present, very little is known about these mechanisms and therefore it is instructive to find out more about the internal nature of granular samples by conducting suitable tests. In contrast to physical testing the method of investigation used in this study employs the Distinct Element Method. This is a computer based, iterative, time-dependent technique that allows the deformation of granular assemblies to be numerically simulated. By making assumptions regarding contact stiffnesses each individual contact force can be measured and by resolution particle centroid forces can be calculated. Then by dividing particle forces by their respective mass, particle centroid velocities and displacements are obtained by numerical integration. The Distinct Element Method is incorporated into a computer program 'Ball'. This program is effectively a numerical apparatus which forms a logical housing for this method and allows data input and output, and also provides testing control. By using this numerical apparatus tests have been carried out on disc assemblies and many new interesting observations regarding the micromechanical behaviour are revealed. In order to relate the observed microscopic mechanisms of deformation to the flow of the granular system two separate approaches have been used. Firstly a constitutive model has been developed which describes the yield function, flow rule and translation rule for regular assemblies of spheres and discs when subjected to coaxial deformation. Secondly statistical analyses have been carried out using data which was extracted from the simulation tests. These analyses define and quantify granular structure and then show how the force and velocity distributions use the structure to produce the corresponding stress and strain-rate tensors.

Knowledge-based systems and engineering software

The work described was carried out as part of a collaborative Alvey software engineering project (project number SE057). The project collaborators were the Inter-Disciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme of the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd. (BIS) and the British Steel Corporation. The aim of the project was to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based systems (KBSs) to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The work was primarily concerned with BIS's Structured Systems Design (SSD) methodology for DP systems development and how users of this methodology could be supported using KBS tools. The problems encountered by users of SSD are discussed and potential forms of computer-based support for inexpert designers are identified. The architecture for a support environment for SSD is proposed based on the integration of KBS and non-KBS tools for individual design tasks within SSD - The Intellipse system. The Intellipse system has two modes of operation - Advisor and Designer. The design, implementation and user-evaluation of Advisor are discussed. The results of a Designer feasibility study, the aim of which was to analyse major design tasks in SSD to assess their suitability for KBS support, are reported. The potential role of KBS tools in the domain of database design is discussed. The project involved extensive knowledge engineering sessions with expert DP systems designers. Some practical lessons in relation to KBS development are derived from this experience. The nature of the expertise possessed by expert designers is discussed. The need for operational KBSs to be built to the same standards as other commercial and industrial software is identified. A comparison between current KBS and conventional DP systems development is made. On the basis of this analysis, a structured development method for KBSs in proposed - the POLITE model. Some initial results of applying this method to KBS development are discussed. Several areas for further research and development are identified.

Development of an electric heat pump for domestic use

This thesis records the design and development of an electrically driven, air to water, vapour compression heat pump of nominally 6kW heat output, for residential space heating. The study was carried out on behalf of GEC Research Ltd through the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme at Aston University. A computer based mathematical model of the vapour compression cycle was produced as a design aid, to enable the effects of component design changes or variations in operating conditions to be predicted. This model is supported by performance testing of the major components, which revealed that improvements in the compressor isentropic efficiency offer the greatest potential for further increases in cycle COPh. The evaporator was designed from first principles, and is based on wire-wound heat transfer tubing. Two evaporators, of air side area 10.27 and 16.24m2, were tested in a temperature and humidity controlled environment, demonstrating that the benefits of the large coil are greater heat pump heat output and lower noise levels. A systematic study of frost growth rates suggested that this problem is most severe at the conditions of saturated air at 0oC combined with low condenser water temperature. A dynamic simulation model was developed to predict the in-service performance of the heat pump. This study confirmed the importance of an adequate radiator area for heat pump installations. A prototype heat pump was designed and manufactured, consisting of a hermetic reciprocating compressor, a coaxial tube condenser and a helically coiled evaporator, using Refrigerant 22. The prototype was field tested in a domestic environment for one and a half years. The installation included a comprehensive monitoring system. Initial problems were encountered with defrosting and compressor noise, both of which were solved. The unit then operated throughout the 1985/86 heating season without further attention, producing a COPh of 2.34.

A manufacturing systems modelling using system dynamics:forming a dedicated modelling tool

Discrete event simulation is a popular aid for manufacturing system design; however in application this technique can sometimes be unnecessarily complex. This paper is concerned with applying an alternative technique to manufacturing system design which may well provide an efficient form of rough-cut analysis. This technique is System Dynamics, and the work described in this paper has set about incorporating the principles of this technique into a computer based modelling tool that is tailored to manufacturing system design. This paper is structured to first explore the principles of System Dynamics and how they differ from Discrete Event Simulation. The opportunity for System Dynamics is then explored, and this leads to defining the capabilities that a suitable tool would need. This specification is then transformed into a computer modelling tool, which is then assessed by applying this tool to model an engine production facility. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219686703000228

Goal-based modeling of dynamically adaptive system requirements

Self-adaptation is emerging as an increasingly important capability for many applications, particularly those deployed in dynamically changing environments, such as ecosystem monitoring and disaster management. One key challenge posed by Dynamically Adaptive Systems (DASs) is the need to handle changes to the requirements and corresponding behavior of a DAS in response to varying environmental conditions. Berry et al. previously identified four levels of RE that should be performed for a DAS. In this paper, we propose the Levels of RE for Modeling that reify the original levels to describe RE modeling work done by DAS developers. Specifically, we identify four types of developers: the system developer, the adaptation scenario developer, the adaptation infrastructure developer, and the DAS research community. Each level corresponds to the work of a different type of developer to construct goal model(s) specifying their requirements. We then leverage the Levels of RE for Modeling to propose two complementary processes for performing RE for a DAS. We describe our experiences with applying this approach to GridStix, an adaptive flood warning system, deployed to monitor the River Ribble in Yorkshire, England.