Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008

Objective Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. Method We used the Peto–Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. Results When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24–31%) of all adult male deaths (> 35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21–26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23–28%)]. Conclusion Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.

Antimicrobial treatment of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis

Bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis is characterized by chronic wet or productive cough, recurrent exacerbations and irreversible bronchial dilatation. After antibiotics and vaccines became available and living standards in affluent countries improved, its resulting reduced prevalence meant bronchiectasis was considered an ‘orphan disease’. This perception has changed recently with increasing use of CT scans to diagnose bronchiectasis, including in those with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or ‘difficult to control’ asthma, and adds to its already known importance in non-affluent countries and disadvantaged Indigenous communities. Following years of neglect, there is renewed interest in identifying the pathogenetic mechanisms of bronchiectasis, including the role of infection, and conducting clinical trials. This is providing much needed evidence to guide antimicrobial therapy, which has relied previously upon extrapolating treatments used in cystic fibrosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. While many knowledge gaps and management challenges remain, the future is improving for patients with bronchiectasis.

Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and self-reported morbidity in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health: A cross-sectional study

- Objective We sought to assess the effect of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the prevalence of self-reported health outcomes in Australian women. - Design Cross-sectional study - Setting and participants The geocoded residential addresses of 26 991 women across 3 age cohorts in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health between 2006 and 2011 were linked to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure estimates from a land-use regression model. Annual average NO2 concentrations and residential proximity to roads were used as proxies of exposure to ambient air pollution. - Outcome measures Self-reported disease presence for diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and self-reported symptoms of allergies, breathing difficulties, chest pain and palpitations. - Methods Disease prevalence was modelled by population-averaged Poisson regression models estimated by generalised estimating equations. Associations between symptoms and ambient air pollution were modelled by multilevel mixed logistic regression. Spatial clustering was accounted for at the postcode level. - Results No associations were observed between any of the outcome and exposure variables considered at the 1% significance level after adjusting for known risk factors and confounders. - Conclusions Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with self-reported disease prevalence in Australian women. The observed results may have been due to exposure and outcome misclassification, lack of power to detect weak associations or an actual absence of associations with self-reported outcomes at the relatively low annual average air pollution exposure levels across Australia.

One device, two doses

Ms Breathless is a 59-year-old lady living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for several years now, and quit smoking over 20 years ago. She sometimes experiences symptoms of breathlessness, and an unrelenting productive cough, particularly when she comes in contact with dusty places, second-hand smoke, or when her allergies and hay fever play up. Apart from these triggers, her symptoms are well maintained with her inhalers glycopyrronium bromide (Seebri) and indacaterol (Onbrez), and she has been using them for about nine months. Ms Breathless is otherwise healthy, and not taking any other medicines.

Nutrition during noninvasive ventilation: clinical determinants and key practical recommendations

Malnutrition and poor nutritional intake have been identified as key issues associated with poorer clinical outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. There is strong evidence showing nutritional support is effective in treating malnutrition in stable COPD, but there is only limited research regarding nutritional status in patients treated with noninvasive ventilation (NIV). The impact of NIV during acute exacerbations of respiratory disease on nutritional status requires further investigation.

Spirometric studies on the adult general population of Helsinki : bronchodilation responses, determinants, and intrasession repeatability of FEV1, FEV6, FVC, and forced expiratory time

Spirometry is the most widely used lung function test in the world. It is fundamental in diagnostic and functional evaluation of various pulmonary diseases. In the studies described in this thesis, the spirometric assessment of reversibility of bronchial obstruction, its determinants, and variation features are described in a general population sample from Helsinki, Finland. This study is a part of the FinEsS study, which is a collaborative study of clinical epidemiology of respiratory health between Finland (Fin), Estonia (Es), and Sweden (S). Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute the two major obstructive airways diseases. The prevalence of asthma has increased, with around 6% of the population in Helsinki reporting physician-diagnosed asthma. The main cause of COPD is smoking with changes in smoking habits in the population affecting its prevalence with a delay. Whereas airway obstruction in asthma is by definition reversible, COPD is characterized by fixed obstruction. Cough and sputum production, the first symptoms of COPD, are often misinterpreted for smokers cough and not recognized as first signs of a chronic illness. Therefore COPD is widely underdiagnosed. More extensive use of spirometry in primary care is advocated to focus smoking cessation interventions on populations at risk. The use of forced expiratory volume in six seconds (FEV6) instead of forced vital capacity (FVC) has been suggested to enable office spirometry to be used in earlier detection of airflow limitation. Despite being a widely accepted standard method of assessment of lung function, the methodology and interpretation of spirometry are constantly developing. In 2005, the ATS/ERS Task Force issued a joint statement which endorsed the 12% and 200 ml thresholds for significant change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or FVC during bronchodilation testing, but included the notion that in cases where only FVC improves it should be verified that this is not caused by a longer exhalation time in post-bronchodilator spirometry. This elicited new interest in the assessment of forced expiratory time (FET), a spirometric variable not usually reported or used in assessment. In this population sample, we examined FET and found it to be on average 10.7 (SD 4.3) s and to increase with ageing and airflow limitation in spirometry. The intrasession repeatability of FET was the poorest of the spirometric variables assessed. Based on the intrasession repeatability, a limit for significant change of 3 s was suggested for FET during bronchodilation testing. FEV6 was found to perform equally well as FVC in the population and in a subgroup of subjects with airways obstruction. In the bronchodilation test, decreases were frequently observed in FEV1 and particularly in FVC. The limit of significant increase based on the 95th percentile of the population sample was 9% for FEV1 and 6% for FEV6 and FVC; these are slightly lower than the current limits for single bronchodilation tests (ATS/ERS guidelines). FEV6 was proven as a valid alternative to FVC also in the bronchodilation test and would remove the need to control duration of exhalation during the spirometric bronchodilation test.

Transcriptional analysis of persistent Chlamydia pneumoniae infection in vitro

Chlamydia pneumoniae can cause acute respiratory infections including pneumonia. Repeated and persistent Chlamydia infections occur and persistent C. pneumoniae infection may have a role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease and may also contribute to the development of chronic inflammatory lung diseases like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. In this thesis in vitro models for persistent C. pneumonia infection were established in epithelial and monocyte/macrophage cell lines. Expression of host cell genes in the persistent C. pneumoniae infection model of epithelial cells was studied by microarray and RT-PCR. In the monocyte/macrophage infection model expression of selected C. pneumoniae genes were studied by RT-PCR and immunofluorescence microscopy. Chlamydia is able to modulate host cell gene expression and apoptosis of host cells, which may assist Chlamydia to evade the host cells' immune responses. This, in turn, may lead to extended survival of the organism inside epithelial cells and promote the development of persistent infection. To simulate persistent C. pneumoniae infection in vivo, we set up a persistent infection model exposing the HL cell cultures to IFN-gamma. When HL cell cultures were treated with moderate concentration of IFN-gamma, the replication of C. pneumoniae DNA was unaffected while differentiation into infectious elementary bodies (EB) was strongly inhibited. By transmission electron microscopy small atypical inclusions were identified in IFN-gamma treated cultures. No second cycle of infection was observed in cells exposed to IFN-gamma , whereas C. pneumoniae was able to undergo a second cycle of infection in unexposed HL cells. Although monocytic cells can naturally restrict chlamydial growth, IFN-gamma further reduced production of infectious C. pneumoniae in Mono Mac 6 cells. Under both studied conditions no second cycle of infection could be detected in monocytic cell line suggesting persistent infection in these cells. As a step toward understanding the role of host genes in the development and pathogenesis of persistent C. pneumoniae infection, modulation of host cell gene expression during IFN-gamma induced persistent infection was examined and compared to that seen during active C. pneumoniae infection or IFN-gamma treatment. Total RNA was collected at 6 to 150 h after infection of an epithelial cell line (HL) and analyzed by a cDNA array (available at that time) representing approximately 4000 human transcripts. In initial analysis 250 of the 4000 genes were identified as differentially expressed upon active and persistent chlamydial infection and IFN-gamma treatment. In persistent infection more potent up-regulation of many genes was observed in IFN-gamma induced persistent infection than in active infection or in IFN-gamma treated cell cultures. Also sustained up-regulation was observed for some genes. In addition, we could identify nine host cell genes whose transcription was specifically altered during the IFN-gamma induced persistent C. pneumoniae infection. Strongest up-regulation in persistent infection in relation to controls was identified for insulin like growth factor binding protein 6, interferon-stimulated protein 15 kDa, cyclin D1 and interleukin 7 receptor. These results suggest that during persistent infection, C. pneumoniae reprograms the host transcriptional machinery regulating a variety of cellular processes including adhesion, cell cycle regulation, growth and inflammatory response, all of which may play important roles in the pathogenesis of persistent C. pneumoniae infection. C. pneumoniae DNA can be detected in peripheral blood mononuclear cells indicating that the bacterium can also infect monocytic cells in vivo and thereby monocytes can assist the spread of infection from the lungs to other anatomical sites. Persistent infection established at these sites could promote inflammation and enhance pathology. Thus, the mononuclear cells are in a strategic position in the development of persistent infection. To investigate the intracellular replication and fate of C. pneumoniae in mononuclear cells we analyzed the transcription of 11 C. pneumoniae genes in Mono Mac 6 cells during infection by real time RT-PCR. Our results suggest that the transcriptional profile of the studied genes in monocytes is different from that seen in epithelial cells and that IFN-gamma has a less significant effect on C. pneumoniae transcription in monocytes. Furthermore, our study shows that type III secretion system (T3SS) related genes are transcribed and that Chlamydia possesses a functional T3SS during infection in monocytes. Since C. pneumoniae infection in monocytes has been implicated to have reduced antibiotic susceptibility, this creates opportunities for novel therapeutics targeting T3SS in the management of chlamydial infection in monocytes.

Smoking patterns and lung function : A longitudinal twin study

In many countries, the prevalence of smoking and smokers average cigarette consumption have decreased, with occasional smoking and daily light smoking (1-4 cigarettes per day, CPD) becoming more common. Despite these changes in smoking patterns, the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a disorder characterized by a progressive decline in lung function, continues to rise globally. Smoking is the most important factor causing COPD, however, not all smokers develop the disease. Genetic factors partly explain the inter-individual differences in lung function and susceptibility of some smokers to COPD. No earlier research on the genetic and environmental determinants of lung function or on the phenomenon of light smoking exists in the Finnish population. Further, the association between low-rate smoking patterns and COPD remains partly unknown. This thesis aimed to study the prevalence and consistency of light smoking longitudinally in the Finnish population, to assess the characteristics of light smokers, and to examine the risks of chronic bronchitis and COPD associated with changing smoking patterns over time. A further aim was to estimate longitudinally the proportions of genetic and environmental factors that explain the inter-individual variances in lung function. Data from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, including same-sex twin pairs born in Finland before 1958, were used. Smoking patterns and chronic bronchitis symptoms were consistently assessed in surveys conducted in 1975, 1981, and 1990. National registry data on reimbursement eligibilities and medication purchases were used to define COPD. Lung function data were obtained from a subsample of the cohort, 217 female twin pairs, who attended spirometry in 2000 and 2003 as part of the Finnish Twin Study on Ageing. The genetic and environmental influences on lung function were estimated by using genetic modeling. This thesis found that light smokers are more often female, well-educated, and exhibit a healthier lifestyle than heavy smokers. At individual level, light smoking is rarely a constant pattern. Light smoking, reducing from heavier smoking to light smoking, and relapsing to light smoking after quitting, are among patterns associated with an increased risk of chronic bronchitis and COPD. Constant light smoking is associated with an increased use of inhaled anticholinergics, a medication for CODP. In addition to smoking, other environmental factors influence lung function in the older age. During a three-year follow-up, new environmental effects influencing spirometry values were observed, whereas the genes affecting lung function remained mostly the same. In conclusion, no safe level of daily smoking exists with regard to pulmonary diseases. Even daily light smoking in middle-age is associated with increased respiratory morbidity later in life. Smoking reduction does not decrease the risk of COPD, and should not be recommended as an alternative to quitting smoking. In elderly people, attention should also be drawn to other factors that can prevent poor lung function.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study: objectives, methodology, and description of the prospective cohort

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study. Methods/Design: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data. Discussion: The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.

Insight on how fishing bats discern prey and adjust their mechanic and sensorial features during the attack sequence

Several insectivorous bats have included fish in their diet, yet little is known about the processes underlying this trophic shift. We performed three field experiments with wild fishing bats to address how they manage to discern fish from insects and adapt their hunting technique to capture fish. We show that bats react only to targets protruding above the water and discern fish from insects based on prey disappearance patterns. Stationary fish trigger short and shallow dips and a terminal echolocation pattern with an important component of the narrowband and low frequency calls. When the fish disappears during the attack process, bats regulate their attack increasing the number of broadband and high frequency calls in the last phase of the echolocation as well as by lengthening and deepening their dips. These adjustments may allow bats to obtain more valuable sensorial information and to perform dips adjusted to the level of uncertainty on the location of the submerged prey. The observed ultrafast regulation may be essential for enabling fishing to become cost-effective in bats, and demonstrates the ability of bats to rapidly modify and synchronise their sensorial and motor features as a response to last minute stimulus variations.

O envolvimento do estresse oxidativo e nitrosativo em modelo de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (DPOC) induzido por elastase

Esse estudo buscou investigar o papel do estresse oxidativo e nitrosativo no enfisema pulmonar induzido por elastase. Foram utilizados camundongos machos C57BL/6 submetidos a dois modelos de indução do enfisema por elastase pancreática suína (PPE): intratraqueal (i.t.) e intranasal (i.n.). No modelo intratraqueal a PPE foi instilada nas doses de 0,05 U ou 0,5 U/camundongo para avaliação temporal do enfisema 7, 14 e 21 dias após instilação de PPE. Em outra etapa, o papel da iNOS foi avaliado através da sua inibição farmacológica por aminoguanidina (AMG) 1% na água de beber ou pela sua exclusão genética em camundongos deficientes em iNOS que tiveram o enfisema induzido por 0,5 U PPE i.t. após 21 dias. No modelo intranasal a dose de PPE foi 3 U/camundongo para avaliação temporal do enfisema (1, 7, 14 e 21 dias após PPE). O papel do estresse oxidativo e nitrosativo foi avaliado com diferentes tratamentos antioxidantes na água de beber: tempol, apocinina+alopurinol, n-acetilcisteína, vitamina C+E, e aminoguanidina durante os 21 dias de indução do enfisema. Os grupos controles foram submetidos à instilação de salina. Lavado broncoalveolar, imunoensaios, análises bioquímicas de estresse oxidativo e ensaios morfométricos foram realizados nos pulmões dos animais. O enfisema foi histologicamente alcançado em 21 dias após 0,5 U PPE i.t., evidenciado pelo aumento do diâmetro alveolar médio Lm e da densidade de volume dos espaços alveolares - Vvair em comparação ao grupo controle. TNF-α foi aumentado em 7 e 14 dias após 0,5 U PPE comparados ao controle, concomitante com a redução de IL-10 nos mesmos períodos, comparados ao controle. O estresse oxidativo foi observado na fase inicial do enfisema, com aumento dos níveis de nitrito, TBARS e superóxido dismutase no grupo 7 dias após 0,5 U PPE (i.t.) quando comparados ao controle ao passo que no modelo intranasal as alterações típicas do estresse foram vistas no grupo 1 dia após 3 U de PPE. Atividade da glutationa peroxidase foi aumentada em todos os grupos PPE (i.t.). A exposição à 0,5 U PPE induziu o aumento da iNOS, eNOS e nitrotirosina, sendo revertido no grupo PPE+AMG. Os animais tratados com AMG 1% e os deficientes em iNOS tiveram o enfisema atenuado histologicamente, mantendo o Lm e o Vvair semelhantes ao grupo controle. Os grupos tratados com n-acetilcisteína e aminoguanidina no modelo i.n. tiveram redução do Lm quando comparados ao grupo PPE. Esses resultados sugerem que as vias de estresse oxidativo e nitrosativo são disparadas pela produção de óxido nítrico via iNOS no enfisema pulmonar. A modulação da iNOS parece uma estratégia promissora no estabelecimento do enfisema pulmonar

Efeito do uso de salbutamol nas propriedades mecânicas do sistema respiratório de indivíduos saudáveis, tabagistas e portadores de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica

A doença pulmonar obstrução crônica (DPOC) é caracterizada pela limitação de fluxo parcialmente reversível, classificada por níveis de obstrução pós-broncodilatador. Há várias evidências de que o FEV1 sozinho não é capaz de mostrar a broncodilatação de pacientes com DPOC, mesmo naqueles que apresentam melhora clínica. A técnica de oscilações forçadas (TOF) tem mostrado alta sensibilidade na detecção precoce de alterações mecânicas na DPOC, contudo o efeito broncodilatador na impedância respiratória de pacientes com DPOC ainda não está esclarecido. Objetiva avaliar a utilidade da TOF nos diferentes estágios de obstrução das vias aéreas; (2) avaliar a resposta da impedância respiratória ao salbutamol em indivíduos saudáveis ao exame espirométrico e pacientes com DPOC em diferentes graus de gravidade. Foram avaliados 25 indivíduos saudáveis sem história de tabagismo, 24 tabagistas e 151 pacientes com DPOC classificados em graus I, II, III e IV. Todos os sujeitos foram avaliados pela TOF seguida da espirometria, antes e após o uso do salbutamol spray. As curvas de resistência e reatância demonstraram alteração em todos os estágios de obstrução das vias aéreas após o uso do salbutamol. O grupo de risco apresentou alterações mecânicas semelhantes ao grupo leve (p=ns). Os parâmetros R0, Rm, Csr,din e Z4Hz apresentam desempenho diagnóstico adequado (AUC > 0,85) em todos os estágios de gravidade da doença. Todos os parâmetros de TOF e espirometria apresentaram diminuição após uso do salbutamol. Os indivíduos saudáveis apresentaram uma pequena diminuição comparada aos subgrupos de DPOC. A variação em termos absolutos da ΔZ4Hz e das derivadas da resistência, ΔR0, ΔRm, ΔS, apresentaram variação significativa (p<0,0001, p<0,003; p<0,04; p<0,0002, respectivamente) com o aumento da obstrução brônquica. Nas derivadas da reatância o ΔXm aumentou com a gravidade da doença (p<0,0002). Por outro lado, a ΔCrs,dyn não demonstrou diferença significativa com a gravidade da DPOC. Em termos percentuais os parâmetros da TOF apresentaram variação expressiva em ΔRm% (p<0,02), ΔS% (p<0,02) e ΔXm% (p<0,004) com o aumento da obstrução nas vias aéreas. Por outro lado, ΔR0%, ΔCrs,dyn% e ΔZ4Hz% não variaram entre os estágios da DPOC. A associação entre a broncodilatação nas vias aéreas e a impedância pulmonar foi fraca entre ΔXm vs ΔFVC (r=0,32, p<0,0001) e ΔZ4Hz% vs ΔFEV1% vs ΔFVC% (r=0.28, p<0,0005; r=0,29, p<0,0003, respectivamente). A TOF é útil na avaliação das alterações mecânicas nos diferentes níveis de obstrução das vias aéreas na DPOC. Demonstramos o benefício da medicação broncodilatadora, quantificando a melhora da ventilação através da TOF. A impedância respiratória diminui em todos os estágios da DPOC, o estágio leve melhorou tanto quanto o estágio muito grave. Isto sugere que a medida da impedância pulmonar não é dependente do volume como ocorre na espirometria e que a broncodilatação ocorre em todas as fases da progressão da DPOC.

Subtypes of Patients Experiencing Exacerbations of COPD and Associations with Outcomes

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex and heterogeneous condition characterized by occasional exacerbations. Identifying clinical subtypes among patients experiencing COPD exacerbations (ECOPD) could help better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved in exacerbations, establish different strategies of treatment, and improve the process of care and patient prognosis. The objective of this study was to identify subtypes of ECOPD patients attending emergency departments using clinical variables and to validate the results using several outcomes. We evaluated data collected as part of the IRYSS-COPD prospective cohort study conducted in 16 hospitals in Spain. Variables collected from ECOPD patients attending one of the emergency departments included arterial blood gases, presence of comorbidities, previous COPD treatment, baseline severity of COPD, and previous hospitalizations for ECOPD. Patient subtypes were identified by combining results from multiple correspondence analysis and cluster analysis. Results were validated using key outcomes of ECOPD evolution. Four ECOPD subtypes were identified based on the severity of the current exacerbation and general health status (largely a function of comorbidities): subtype A (n = 934), neither high comorbidity nor severe exacerbation; subtype B (n = 682), moderate comorbidities; subtype C (n = 562), severe comorbidities related to mortality; and subtype D (n = 309), very severe process of exacerbation, significantly related to mortality and admission to an intensive care unit. Subtype D experienced the highest rate of mortality, admission to an intensive care unit and need for noninvasive mechanical ventilation, followed by subtype C. Subtypes A and B were primarily related to other serious complications. Hospitalization rate was more than 50% for all the subtypes, although significantly higher for subtypes C and D than for subtypes A and B. These results could help identify characteristics to categorize ECOPD patients for more appropriate care, and help test interventions and treatments in subgroups with poor evolution and outcomes.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.