Parameter Estimation in Chaotic Systems

This report examines how to estimate the parameters of a chaotic system given noisy observations of the state behavior of the system. Investigating parameter estimation for chaotic systems is interesting because of possible applications for high-precision measurement and for use in other signal processing, communication, and control applications involving chaotic systems. In this report, we examine theoretical issues regarding parameter estimation in chaotic systems and develop an efficient algorithm to perform parameter estimation. We discover two properties that are helpful for performing parameter estimation on non-structurally stable systems. First, it turns out that most data in a time series of state observations contribute very little information about the underlying parameters of a system, while a few sections of data may be extraordinarily sensitive to parameter changes. Second, for one-parameter families of systems, we demonstrate that there is often a preferred direction in parameter space governing how easily trajectories of one system can "shadow'" trajectories of nearby systems. This asymmetry of shadowing behavior in parameter space is proved for certain families of maps of the interval. Numerical evidence indicates that similar results may be true for a wide variety of other systems. Using the two properties cited above, we devise an algorithm for performing parameter estimation. Standard parameter estimation techniques such as the extended Kalman filter perform poorly on chaotic systems because of divergence problems. The proposed algorithm achieves accuracies several orders of magnitude better than the Kalman filter and has good convergence properties for large data sets.

Hybrid coordination of reinforcement learning-based behaviors for AUV control

This paper proposes a hybrid coordination method for behavior-based control architectures. The hybrid method takes advantages of the robustness and modularity in competitive approaches as well as optimized trajectories in cooperative ones. This paper shows the feasibility of applying this hybrid method with a 3D-navigation to an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The behaviors are learnt online by means of reinforcement learning. A continuous Q-learning implemented with a feed-forward neural network is employed. Realistic simulations were carried out. The results obtained show the good performance of the hybrid method on behavior coordination as well as the convergence of the behaviors

Efficient learning of reactive robot behaviors with a Neural-Q_learning approach

The purpose of this paper is to propose a Neural-Q_learning approach designed for online learning of simple and reactive robot behaviors. In this approach, the Q_function is generalized by a multi-layer neural network allowing the use of continuous states and actions. The algorithm uses a database of the most recent learning samples to accelerate and guarantee the convergence. Each Neural-Q_learning function represents an independent, reactive and adaptive behavior which maps sensorial states to robot control actions. A group of these behaviors constitutes a reactive control scheme designed to fulfill simple missions. The paper centers on the description of the Neural-Q_learning based behaviors showing their performance with an underwater robot in a target following task. Real experiments demonstrate the convergence and stability of the learning system, pointing out its suitability for online robot learning. Advantages and limitations are discussed

[Ressenya del llibre Power/resistance: local politics and the chaotic state d’Andrew Kirby]

Ressenya del llibre Power/resistance: local politics and the chaotic state. Es tracta d’una reflexió serena i meditada sobre l’essència i la presència de -i resistència a- l’estat en les societats occidentals contemporànies des d’una perspectiva espacial

Análisis del impacto del tamaño de los activos en la cuenta de resultados mediante la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia

Los resultados financieros de las organizaciones son objeto de estudio y análisis permanente, predecir sus comportamientos es una tarea permanente de empresarios, inversionistas, analistas y académicos. En el presente trabajo se explora el impacto del tamaño de los activos (valor total de los activos) en la cuenta de resultados operativos y netos, analizando inicialmente la relación entre dichas variables con indicadores tradicionales del análisis financiero como es el caso de la rentabilidad operativa y neta y con elementos de estadística descriptiva que permiten calificar los datos utilizados como lineales o no lineales. Descubriendo posteriormente que los resultados financieros de las empresas vigiladas por la Superintendencia de Sociedades para el año 2012, tienen un comportamiento no lineal, de esta manera se procede a analizar la relación de los activos y los resultados con la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia, herramientas útiles para sistemas caóticos y complejos. Para el desarrollo de la investigación y la revisión de la relación entre las variables de activos y resultados financieros se tomó como fuente de información los reportes financieros del cierre del año 2012 de la Superintendencia de Sociedades (Superintendencia de Sociedades, 2012).

Predictors of Attitudes toward Cosmetic Surgery among U.S. and Colombian College Women: The Roles of Eating Behaviors and Demographic Variables

Cross-cultural studies on eating behaviors and related constructs can identify cultural and social factors that contribute to eating disorder symptomatology. Eating disorders (EDs) are a major cause for concern in the U.S., and recent studies in Colombia have shown growing rates among their female population. In addition, cosmetic surgery procedures have been increasing rapidly in both the U.S. and Colombia, and preliminary research suggests a positive relation between disordered eating and endorsement of plastic surgery. In samples of college women from Colombia and the U.S., we investigated patterns of association between disordered eating variables and cosmetic surgery acceptance. Our approach utilized separate analyses for various subcomponents of disordered eating (to determine their unique associations with cosmetic surgery acceptance) while adjusting for potentially relevant covariates and examining cross-cultural patterns. Participants were students at an urban, public college in the U.S. (n=163) and an urban, private college in Colombia (n=179). Overall, our findings suggested that participants from Colombia with greater disordered eating were more likely to endorse cosmetic surgery for social reasons, while those from the U.S. were more likely to consider undergoing cosmetic surgery for personal reasons. Differing findings between the two samples may be due to cultural and social factors, which we delineate. These findings also have potential implications for presurgical counseling of cosmetic surgery candidates.

Utilización de los conceptos de caos y complejidad en empresas del sector financiero

Este proyecto busca determinar que utilización se hace de los conceptos de caos y complejidad en las empresas del sector financiero colombiano, para así encontrar la relación entre estos conceptos y la ocurrencia de eventos en la economía actual. Se adoptó un método descriptivo, donde se tomará como unidad de análisis una empresa representativa del sector financiero de Colombia. La compañía escogida para el análisis fue Bancolombia, la cual debido a su larga trayectoria dentro de la economía colombiana, ha demostrado un buen desempeño y el logro de sus objetivos a nivel nacional e internacional. El análisis realizado permitió tener una visión amplia y representativa del significado que el caos y la complejidad tienen para el sector financiero; y como sus respectivos conceptos se aplican a la hora de enfrentar condiciones extremas en la industria o la economía. Pero también como el comportamiento de variables pertenecientes a otras industrias, tienen la capacidad de afectar e influir en el normal comportamiento de la compañía. Se concluyó además que Bancolombia en épocas de crisis logra ser mucho más realista al afrontar los momentos. Las crisis se muestran como caos dentro de un sistema simple y organizado que afecta a sus diferentes variables no lineales, y que puede llegar a una interacción entre otros sistemas, produciendo así comportamientos críticos y complicados. Se muestra también que la complejidad dentro de un sistema financiero es una creación de interacciones simples que muestran un parámetro claro, casi deducible, que al interactuar entre todas se convierte en complejidad para las organizaciones como Bancolombia.

Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Controlling Coach Behaviors Scale in the sport context

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

The development of language and communicative behaviors in deaf/hearing twins

This paper examines language development in twins--one that is hearing and the other that is hearing impaired.

Influence of vegetation on the nocturnal foraging behaviors and vertebrate prey capture by endangered Burrowing Owls

Restrictions in technology have limited past habitat selection studies for many species to the home-range level, as a finer-scale understanding was often not possible. Consequently, these studies may not identify the true mechanism driving habitat selection patterns, which may influence how such results are applied in conservation. We used GPS dataloggers with digital video recorders to identify foraging modes and locations in which endangered Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia) captured prey. We measured the coarse and fine-scale characteristics of vegetation at locations in which owls searched for, versus where they caught, vertebrate prey. Most prey items were caught using hover-hunting. Burrowing Owls searched for, and caught, vertebrate prey in all cover types, but were more likely to kill prey in areas with sparse and less dense vegetative cover. Management strategies designed to increase Burrowing Owl foraging success in the Canadian prairies should try to ensure a mosaic of vegetation heights across cover types.

Dynamic scaling of bred vectors in spatially extended chaotic systems

We unfold a profound relationship between the dynamics of finite-size perturbations in spatially extended chaotic systems and the universality class of Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ). We show how this relationship can be exploited to obtain a complete theoretical description of the bred vectors dynamics. The existence of characteristic length/time scales, the spatial extent of spatial correlations and how to time it, and the role of the breeding amplitude are all analyzed in the light of our theory. Implications to weather forecasting based on ensembles of initial conditions are also discussed.

Is speeding a "real" antisocial behavior? A comparison with other antisocial behaviors

The relationship between speed and crashes has been well established in the literature, with the consequence that speed reduction through enforced or other means should lead to a reduction in crashes. The extent to which the public regard speeding as a problem that requires enforcement is less clear. Analysis was conducted on public perceptions of antisocial behaviors including speeding traffic. The data was collected as part of the British Crime Survey, a face-to-face interview with UK residents on issues relating to crime. The antisocial behavior section required participants to state the degree to which they perceived 16 antisocial behaviors to be a problem in their area. Results revealed that speeding traffic was perceived as the greatest problem in local communities, regardless of whether respondents were male or female, young, middle aged, or old. The rating of speeding traffic as the greatest problem in the community was replicated in a second, smaller postal survey, where respondents also provided strong support for enforcement on residential roads, and indicated that traveling immediately above the speed limit on residential roads was unacceptable. Results are discussed in relation to practical implications for speed enforcement, and the prioritization of limited police resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability

Exponential spectra are found to characterize variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) for periods less than 36 days. This corresponds to the observed rounding of the autocorrelation function at lags of a few days. The characteristic persistence timescales during winter and summer is found to be ∼5 days for these high frequencies. Beyond periods of 36 days the characteristic decorrelation timescale is ∼20 days during winter and ∼6 days in summer. We conclude that the NAM cannot be described by autoregressive models for high frequencies; the spectra are more consistent with low-order chaos. We also propose that the NAM exhibits regime behaviour, however the nature of this has yet to be identified.