Conservadorismo e herança institucional de financiamento das companhias abertas do Brasil

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Programa Multi-Institucional e Inter-Regional de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis, 2015.

Empirical validation of CAPM

This paper pretends to show empirical evidence of the CAPM model of Sharpe-Lintner (1964) for Colombia from 2003 to 2010, whose validation is carried out using the method of Black, Jensen and Scholes (1972) but introducing certain methodological econometric type changes associated to the requirements imposed by the used sample -- Specifically, we found no empirical evidence to reject the CAPM for the Colombian economyin the period under analysis

Colombian mutual funds that invest in stocks: Do they create value?

Esta investigación evalúa el desempeño de 73 fondos de inversión colectiva (FIC) colombianos enfocados en acciones de 2005 a 2015 -- Para cuantificar el valor generado por estos fondos en comparación con sus respectivos activos de referencia (“benchmarks”), se calcula el alfa de Jensen mediante dos metodologías de regresión: Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO) y Regresión por Cuantiles -- También se analiza si estos fondos muestran evidencia de “market timing” o no, utilizando dos modelos: efecto cuadrático y variable binaria interactiva -- De igual manera, nuestro estudio propone la creación de una empresa privada en Colombia que provea a los inversores de información precisa sobre las características y desempeño histórico de estos fondos de inversión colectiva, como lo hace Morningstar Inc. en Estados Unidos -- Esto permitiría a los inversores seleccionar los fondos con mejores perspectivas y, como es de esperarse, haría este mercado más eficiente y atractivo para nuevos inversores potenciales

Reporte financiero Burkenroad / Latinoamérica – Colombia / Almacenes Éxito S.A.

En la fecha de estudio, Colombia presentó grandes alternativas de inversión gracias al comportamiento positivo de sus indicadores económicos; sin embargo, el mercado accionario se ha visto afectado por el comportamiento a la baja de los precios del petróleo, lo que ha hecho que varios inversionistas castiguen en alto grado el mercado enfocado a dicho sector; no obstante, después de realizar el análisis de la valoración de la acción del Grupo Éxito se observa que está subvalorada, por lo cual se prevé un incremento en el precio muy positivo, lo que generará un crecimiento el dividendo proyectado; lo anterior se debe, sobre todo, a la estrategia de crecimiento de la compañía en Latinoamérica, la cual se continúa consolidando después de la adquisición en Brasil y Argentina en el año 2015 -- Aunque el panorama económico para los países en los que tiene operación no es muy positivo, se espera que el resultado de la incursión de la organización en dichos países sea positivo, a partir de las estrategias como lo son: implementar el beneficio cruzado entre los países, crear sinergias y continuar con el posicionamiento de la marca propia, siendo los pilares fundamentales para lograr de manera exitosa los resultados esperados por la compañía

Information Content of Bank Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Europe

This thesis examines the short-term impact of credit rating announcements on daily stock returns of 41 European banks indexed in STOXX Europe 600 Banks. The time period of this study is 2002–2015 and the ratings represent long-term issuer ratings provided by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Bank ratings are significant for a bank’s operation costs so it is interesting to investigate how investors react to changes in creditworthiness. The study objective is achieved by conducting an event study. The event study is extended with a cross-sectional linear regression to investigate other potential determinants surrounding rating changes. The research hypotheses and the motivation for additional tests are derived from prior research. The main hypotheses are formed to explore whether rating changes have an effect on stock returns, when this possible reaction occurs and whether it is asymmetric between upgrades and downgrades. The findings provide evidence that rating announcements have an impact on stock returns in the context of European banks. The results also support the existence of an asymmetry in capital market reaction to rating upgrades and downgrades. The rating downgrades are associated with statistically significant negative abnormal returns on the event day although the reaction is rather modest. No statistically significant reaction is found associated with the rating upgrades on the event day. These results hold true with both rating changes and rating watches. No anticipation is observed in the case of rating changes but there is a statistically significant cumulative negative (positive) price reaction occurring before the event day for negative (positive) watch announcements. The regression provides evidence that the stock price reaction is stronger for rating downgrades occurring within below investment grade class compared with investment grade class. This is intuitive as investors are more concerned about their investments in lower-rated companies. Besides, the price reaction of larger banks is more mitigated compared with smaller banks in the case of rating downgrades. The reason for this may be that larger banks are usually more widely followed by the public. However, the study results may also provide evidence of the existence of the so-called “too big to fail” subsidy that dampens the negative returns of larger banks.

Diseño de una estrategia de inversión para acciones del mercado bursátil Dow Jones

En este trabajo se desarrolla una estrategia de inversión para acciones del índice bursátil Dow Jones, que permite obtener una rentabilidad superior a la del índice en un período de tiempo de cinco años -- Se comienza analizando cada compañía de manera individual, mediante una valoración por flujos de caja libre descontados -- Luego se analizan sus indicadores financieros trimestrales y se calculan diversas valoraciones para cada compañía utilizando múltiplos financieros y bursátiles -- Finalmente, se establece una estrategia con 11 factores que pueden ser combinados entre sí, luego de una ponderación individual, con la idea de obtener rentabilidades superiores a la del índice -- Se simula la estrategia desde el año 2007 hasta la fecha, para un período de tiempo de nueve años, y se obtienen rentabilidades superiores al 10% EA, en contraste con la rentabilidad entregada por el índice del 3,15% EA -- La relación beneficio/riesgo del portafolio es igualmente superior cuando se evidencia que su coeficiente de Sharpe, de 0,65, es superior al del índice, de 0,18, lo que contradice la hipótesis de los mercados eficientes -- La estrategia está diseñada de manera modular, lo que permite la futura inclusión de otras compañías, con la idea de aumentar su robustez

SVR-GARCH com misturas de kernels gaussianos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanisms: New Frontiers For Familiar Tools

Demands for mechanisms to pay for adaptation to climate risks have multiplied rapidly as concern has shifted from greenhouse gas mitigation alone to also coping with the now-inevitable impacts. A number of viable approaches to how to pay for those adjustments to roads, drainage systems, lifeline utilities and other basic infrastructure are emerging, though untested at the scale required across the nation, which already has a trillion-dollar deferred maintenance and replacement problem. There are growing efforts to find new ways to harness private financial resources via new market arrangements to meet needs that clearly outstrip public resources alone, as well as to utilize and combine public resources more effectively. To date, mechanisms are often seen through a specific lens of scale, time, and method, for example national versus local and public versus market-based means. The purpose here is to integrate a number of those perspectives and also to highlight the following in particular. Current experience with seemingly more pedestrian needs like stormwater management funding is in fact a learning step towards new approaches for broader adaptation needs, using re-purposed but existing fiscal tools. The resources raised from new large-scale market approaches for using catastrophe- and resiliency-bond-derived funds will have their use embodied and operationalized in many separate local and state projects. The invention and packaging of innovative projects—the pre-development phase—will be pivotal to better using fiscal resources of many types. Those efforts can be greatly aided or hindered by larger national and especially state government policy, regulatory and capital market arrangements. Understanding the path to integration of effort across these scales deserves much more attention. Examples are given of how federal, state and local roles are each dimensions of that frontier, how existing tools can apply in new ways and how smart project creation plays a role.

Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Rental depreciation and capital expenditure in the UK commercial real estate market, 1993–2009

This paper identifies the long-term rental depreciation rates for UK commercial properties and rates of capital expenditure incurred to offset depreciation over the same period. It starts by reviewing the economic depreciation literature and the rationale for adopting a longitudinal method of measurement, before discussing the data used and results. Data from 1993 to 2009 were sourced from Investment Property Databank and CB Richard Ellis real estate consultants. This is used to compare the change in values of new buildings in different locations with the change in values of individual properties in those locations. The analysis is conducted using observations on 742 assets drawn from all major segments of the commercial real estate market. Overall rental depreciation and capital expenditure rates are similar to those in other recent UK studies. Depreciation rates are 0.8% pa for offices, 0.5% pa for industrial properties and 0.3% pa for standard retail properties. These results hide interesting variations at a segment level, notably in retail where location often dominates value rather than the building. The majority of properties had little (if any) money spent on them over the last 16 years, but those subject to higher rates of expenditure were found to have lower depreciation rates.

A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements

This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modification to the model is found to improve the accuracy of MCRR estimates in both back- and out-of-sample tests. Given that internal risk management models are currently in widespread usage in some parts of the world (most notably the USA), and will soon be permitted for EC banks and investment firms, we believe that our paper should serve as a valuable caution to risk management practitioners who are using, or intend to use this popular class of models.

The effect of default risk on trading book capital requirements for public equities : an irc application for the Brazilian market

Esse é um dos primeiros trabalhos a endereçar o problema de avaliar o efeito do default para fins de alocação de capital no trading book em ações listadas. E, mais especificamente, para o mercado brasileiro. Esse problema surgiu em crises mais recentes e que acabaram fazendo com que os reguladores impusessem uma alocação de capital adicional para essas operações. Por essa razão o comitê de Basiléia introduziu uma nova métrica de risco, conhecida como Incremental Risk Charge. Essa medida de risco é basicamente um VaR de um ano com um intervalo de confiança de 99.9%. O IRC visa medir o efeito do default e das migrações de rating, para instrumentos do trading book. Nessa dissertação, o IRC está focado em ações e como consequência, não leva em consideração o efeito da mudança de rating. Além disso, o modelo utilizado para avaliar o risco de crédito para os emissores de ação foi o Moody’s KMV, que é baseado no modelo de Merton. O modelo foi utilizado para calcular a PD dos casos usados como exemplo nessa dissertação. Após calcular a PD, simulei os retornos por Monte Carlo após utilizar um PCA. Essa abordagem permitiu obter os retornos correlacionados para fazer a simulação de perdas do portfolio. Nesse caso, como estamos lidando com ações, o LGD foi mantido constante e o valor utilizado foi baseado nas especificações de basiléia. Os resultados obtidos para o IRC adaptado foram comparados com um VaR de 252 dias e com um intervalo de confiança de 99.9%. Isso permitiu concluir que o IRC é uma métrica de risco relevante e da mesma escala de uma VaR de 252 dias. Adicionalmente, o IRC adaptado foi capaz de antecipar os eventos de default. Todos os resultados foram baseados em portfolios compostos por ações do índice Bovespa.