Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Tukien tuotannosta irrottamisen vaikutukset viljan, naudanlihan ja sianlihan tarjontaan Suomessa

This research discusses decoupling CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) support and impacts which may occur on grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork in Finland. The study presents the definitions and studies on decoupled agricultural subsidies, the development of supply of grain, beef and pork in Finland and changes in leading factors affecting supply between 1970 and 2005. Decoupling agricultural subsidies means that the linkage between subsidies and production levels is disconnected; subsidies do not affect the amount produced. The hypothesis is that decoupling will decrease the amounts produced in agriculture substantially. In the supply research, the econometric models which represent supply of agricultural products are estimated based on the data of prices and amounts produced. With estimated supply models, the impacts of changes in prices and public policies, can be forecasted according to supply of agricultural products. In this study, three regression models describing combined cultivation areas of rye, wheat, oats and barley, and the supply of beef and pork are estimated. Grain cultivation area and supply of beef are estimated based on data from 1970 to 2005 and supply of pork on data from 1995 to 2005. The dependencies in the model are postulated to be linear. The explanatory variables in the grain model were average return per hectare, agricultural subsidies, grain cultivation area in the previous year and the cost of fertilization. The explanatory variables in the beef model were the total return from markets and subsidies and the amount of beef production in the previous year. In the pork model the explanatory variables were the total return, the price of piglet, investment subsidies, trend of increasing productivity and the dummy variable of the last quarter of the year. The R-squared of model of grain cultivation area was 0,81, the model of beef supply 0,77 and the model of pork supply 0,82. Development of grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork was estimated for 2006 - 2013 with this regression model. In the basic scenario, development of explanatory variables in 2006 - 2013 was postulated to be the same as they used to be in average in 1995 - 2005. After the basic scenario the impacts of decoupling CAP subsidies and domestic subsidies on cultivation area and supply were simulated. According to the results of the decoupling CAP subsidies scenario, grain cultivation area decreases from 1,12 million hectares in 2005 to 1,0 million hectares in 2013 and supply of beef from 88,8 million kilos in 2005 to 67,7 million kilos in 2013. Decoupling domestic and investment subsidies will decrease the supply of pork from 194 million kilos in 2005 to 187 million kilos in 2006. By 2013 the supply of pork grows into 203 million kilos.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

中国粮食生产的区域演进研究

Grain is one of the primary material conditions of the human survival and the grain production concerns the stability and development of the society directly. The regional patterns influence greatly on the grain production and the rational production distribution the regional comparative advantages and promotes grain production. This thesis starts with summarizing of the characteristics of changes and the overall trend of regional pattern of grain production of our country since 1949. Then it carries on network analyses to the factors, which influences the evolvement of regional grain production patterns of our country. And finally it gives some proposals to the grain production distribution in the future. The main content includes: Firstly, Reviewing the regional evolvement of grain production in our country, and analyzing the changes of the regional pattern of grain production of our country on the provincial scale and county scale separately, since 1949, especially since the reform and opening up policy. The main grain production areas are acting an important position in ensuring the national grain security, so this thesis analyses the main matter of the main grain production areas, forecasts the grain production situation in the future, and selects the Northeastern main grain production areas as the typical area to carry on the positive research. Secondly, this thesis analyzes the origin causes from two respects of natural and social economy of the regional evolvement pattern of grain production in China. Thirdly, based on the summarizing to the status of the regional pattern of the grain production, this thesis proposes the precept of the grain production distribution in the future in our country. Therefore, the areas of three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and corn, are confirmed on the basis of the comparative advantages. Finally, this thesis puts forward the security system of guaranteeing the grain production progressing steady in China. According to the above analysis, some conclusions have been achieved as follows: (1) The grain gross production gets on extricating itself from awkward position frequently while fluctuating greatly annually since 1949 in China. (2) Since the reform, its traditional regional pattern of grain production, the most of which was concentrated in the south area, has changed rapidly. China's center of gravity of grain production has shifted from the south to the north, and on the belts of latitude, the grain production has represented a trend of focusing to the middle area in China. (3) The main grain production areas play a very important role in ensuring China's food security. With their relative severe situation of the problems of agriculture, rural area and peasant, China has carried out a series of measures, which aim at improving the food-producing conditions of the main grain production areas, and enhancing the grain yields there. Under this condition, a forecast of the producing amount of the main grain production areas under the nation's self-supplying rate of over 95% shows that the increasing provision production in these areas can meet the demand of the country. (4) The natural and social economic factors influence together on the changes of the grain production regional pattern. Along with the state system transition and progress of agricultural science and technology, the regional pattern of grain production is affected heavier by the agricultural policy and technological elements. (5) The grain production will be concentrated to the middle province in the future, which economic development level being medium-sized; According to crop allocation, although the rice superiority production area located in the South, its comparative advantage index is little in some degree. Meanwhile, the wheat and corn superiority production areas are in the North mainly and its scale superiority and production level advantage are all comparatively obviously.

Rola środków Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej Unii Europejskiej w przekształceniach rolnictwa w województwie wielkopolskim

Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych:Geografii Społeczno-Ekonomicznej i Gospodarki Przestrzennej

Farmers, agriculture and politics in the Irish Free State area, 1919-1936

Given the economic and social importance of agriculture in the early years of the Irish Free State, it is surprising that the development of organisations representing farmers has not received the attention it deserves from historians. While the issues of government agricultural policy and the land question have been extensively studied in the historiography, the autonomous response by farmers to agricultural policies and the detailed study of the farmers’ organisations has simply been ignored in spite of the existence of a range of relevant primary sources. Farmers’ organisations have only received cursory treatment in these studies; they have been presented as passive spectators, responding in a Pavlovian manner to outside events. The existing historiography has only studied farmers’ organisations during periods when they impinged on national politics, epecially during the War of Independence and the Economic War. Therefore chronological gaps exist which has led to much misinterpretation of farmers’ activities. This thesis will redress this imbalance by studying the formation and continuous development of farmers’ organisations within the twenty-six county area and the reaction of farmers to changing government agricultural policies, over the period 1919 to 1936. The period under review entailed many attempts by farmers to form representative organisations and encompassed differing policy regimes. The thesis will open in 1919, when the first national organisation representing farmers, the Irish Farmers’ Union, was formed. In 1922, the union established the Farmers’ Party. By the mid- 1920’s, a number of protectionist agricultural associations had been formed. While the Farmers’ Party was eventually absorbed by Cumann na nGaedheal, local associations of independent farmers occupied the resultant vacuum and contested the 1932 election. These organisations formed the nucleus of a new national organisation; the National Farmers’ and Ratepayers’ League. The agricultural crisis caused by both the Great Depression and the Economic War facilitated the expansion of the league. The league formed a political party, the Centre Party, to contest the 1933 election. While the Centre Party was absorbed by the newly-formed Fine Gael, activists from the former farmer organisations led the campaign against the payment of annuities and rates. Many of them continued this campaign after 1934, when the Fine Gael leadership opposed the violent resistance to the collection of annuities. New farmer organisations were formed to co-ordinate this campaign which continued until 1936, the closing point of the thesis.

Optimisation of the food dairy coop supply chain

In the European Union under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) milk production was restricted by milk quotas since 1984. However, due to recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), milk quotas will be abolished by 2015. Therefore, the European dairy sector will soon face an opportunity, for the first time in a generation, to expand. Numerous studies have shown that milk production in Ireland will increase significantly post quotas (Laepple and Hennessy (2010), Donnellan and Hennessy (2007) and Lips and Reider (2005)). The research in this thesis explored milk transport and dairy product processing in the Irish dairy processing sector in the context of milk quota removal and expansion by 2020. In this study a national milk transport model was developed for the Irish dairy industry, the model was used to examine different efficiency factors in milk transport and to estimate milk transport costs post milk quota abolition. Secondly, the impact of different milk supply profiles on milk transport costs was investigated using the milk transport model. Current processing capacity in Ireland was compared against future supply, it was concluded that additional milk processing capacity would not be sufficient to process the additional milk. Thirdly, the milk transport model was used to identify the least cost locations (based on transport costs) to process the additional milk supply in 2020. Finally, an optimisation model was developed to identify the optimum configuration for the Irish dairy processing sector in 2020 taking cognisance of increasing transport costs and decreasing processing costs.

Biodiversity change in the Irish uplands - the effects of grazing management

As a prominent form of land use across much of upland Europe, extensive livestock grazing may hold the key to the sustainable management of these landscapes. Recent agricultural policy reform, however, has resulted in a decline in upland sheep numbers, prompting concern for the biodiversity value of these areas. This study quantifies the effects of varying levels of grazing management on plant, ground beetle and breeding bird diversity and assemblage in the uplands and lowlands of hill sheep farms in County Kerry, Ireland. Farms represent a continuum of light to heavy grazing, measured using a series of field indicators across several habitats, such as the internationally important blanket bog, home to the ground beetle, Carabus clatratus. Linear mixed effects modelling and non-metric multidimensional scaling are employed to disentangle the most influential management and environmental factors. Grazing state may be determined by the presence of Molinia caerulea or Nardus stricta, and variables such as % traditional ewes, % vegetation litter and % scrub prove valuable indicators of diversity. Measures of ecosystem functioning, e.g. plant biomass (nutrient cycling) and % vegetation cover (erosion rates) are influenced by plant diversity, which is influenced by grazing management. Levels of the ecosystem service, soil organic carbon, vary with ground beetle abundance and diversity, potentially influencing carbon sequestration and thereby climate change. The majority of species from all three taxa are found in the lowlands, with the exception of birds such as meadow pipit and skylark. The scale of measurement should be determined by the size and mobility of the species in question. The challenge is to manage these high nature value landscapes using agri-environment schemes which enhance biodiversity by maintaining structural heterogeneity across a range of scales, altitudes and habitats whilst integrating the decisions of people living and working in these marginal areas.

Annotation of Case C-56/91, Hellenic Republic v Commission, ECR 1993 I-3433

Common Agricultural Policy - Clearance of EAGGF accounts - 1988 financial year

Medium-term prospects for portuguese agriculture under health check Proposals: a quantitative analysis with the CAPRI modelling system

The challenges of Common Agricultural Policy are driven by internal and external factors, such as the budgetary constraints, the budget reform, the globalization and the world financial crisis. According to this work results, CAP will continue its evolution from a sectorial to a territorial approach, with a slow re-balance of its two pillars. The Portuguese agriculture will slowly adjust itself to the disappearance of prices and markets policy and the reinforcement of rural development policy. As in the past, agriculture will accommodate the reform effects and adjust to a new framework without sudden brakes or disclosers.

A política agrícola comum (PAC) e o comércio internacional - estudo econométrico do efeito da PAC sobre as exportações agrícolas portuguesas para a União Europeia (1975-2012)

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização Orientadora: Professora Doutora Maria Clara Ribeiro Coorientadora: Mestre Maria Luísa Verdelho Alves

Insertion socioprofessionnelle des sortants de la formation agricole non formelle sur le marché de l’emploi au Burkina Faso et importance accordée à la production céréalière : cas des sortants du centre de promotion rurale de Goundi

L'étude combine les méthodes qualitative et qualitative à travers l’utilisation du questionnaire et du canevas d’entrevue. Elle s’appuie sur un cadre conceptuel élaboré à partir de revue de littérature et de concepts clefs tels que : le capital social, le capital humain, l’identité personnelle, l’identité professionnelle et la socialisation, Les résultats déterminent le profil d’un céréalier indiquant son attachement aux valeurs professionnelles liées au transfert de ses connaissances, à la modernisation de l’exploitation, à la recherche de l’amélioration du rendement et à l’utilisation d’outils modernes.

Von den Markenteilungen bis zum Emscher Landschaftspark: Freiraumverluste und Freiraumschutz im Ruhrgebiet

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Erfolge und Misserfolge der Freiraumpolitik im Ruhrgebiet untersucht. Ausgangspunkte sind der Freiraumschwund, der über einen Zeitraum von fast 200 Jahren dokumentiert wird, sowie die Gegenbewegungen, die sich für den Freiraumschutz einsetzen. Nach der Vorstellung einer Freiraumtypologie werden diese Entwicklungen in detaillierten historischen Abrissen für jeden Freiraumtyp dargestellt, woraus sich eine eigene Ruhrgebietsgeschichte - aus der Perspektive der Freiflächen und ihrer Nutzer - ergibt. Folgerichtig beginnt die vorliegende Arbeit nicht mit Kohle und Eisen, sondern mit der Land- und Forstwirtschaft. Anhand historischer Quellen wird die gängige Am-Anfang-war-die-Heide-These widerlegt, denn das Ruhrgebiet war waldreich und ein produktiver Agrarraum. Landwirtschaftliche Flächen- und Waldverluste sind die Basis der Siedlungstätigkeit. Ohne die Gemeinheitsteilungen im 19. Jahrhundert wären die Stadterweiterungen und Industrieansiedlungen im Ruhrgebiet nicht möglich gewesen. Die - in Grundzügen im Ersten Weltkrieg entwickelte - Agrarpolitik mit der Förderung von Produktivitätssteigerungen und Hofaufgaben erleichterte den weiteren Entzug von Agrarflächen, und genauso wirkt heute die Liberalisierung der Agrarmärkte. Alternative Ansätze (z.B. Direktvermarktung) konnten diesen Trend noch nicht aufhalten. Auch das Baumschutzgesetz von 1922 konnte die nationalsozialistischen Kahlschläge, die Waldverluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg und durch den Wiederaufbau nicht verhindern. Erst seit der Deindustrialisierung, der Aufforstung von Halden und der Umweltbewegung nehmen Wälder wieder zu. Demgegenüber treten Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts völlig neue Freiraumtypen auf. Die bürgerschaftliche Kleingartenbewegung wurde dank ihrer Bedeutung für die Ernährung in den Städten seit dem Ersten Weltkrieg vom Staat stark unterstützt, von den Nationalsozialisten gleichgeschaltet, konnte aber in den 1950er Jahren ihren bürgerschaftlichen Charakter und ihre Stärke wieder zurückgewinnen. Auch wenn Kleingärten als bauliche Reserveflächen missbraucht werden, geschieht dies nicht mehr ohne Ersatzland. Im Unterschied hierzu wurde die Stadtparkbewegung kommunalisiert. Sodann entstanden Volksparks mit Sportanlagen, ästhetisch ausgerichtete Gartenschauen, die breit gefächerten Revierparks der 1970er Jahre und neue Parktypen im Emscher Landschaftspark. 1920 wird der Siedlungsverband Ruhrkohlenbezirk gegründet, der mit den Verbandsgrünflächen ein eigenes Instrument zum Freiraumschutz und die Kompetenz zur Fluchtlinien- bzw. Bebauungsplanung erhielt. Inzwischen darf der Verband, vor einigen Jahren in den Regionalverband Ruhr umgewandelt, zu kommunalen Planungen nur noch Stellungnahmen abgeben. Schon früh versuchte der Verband, industrielles Ödland zu begrünen. Nach den Bahndammbegrünungen vor dem Zweiten Weltkrieg hat er seit den 1950er Jahren Halden aufgeforstet, bis in den 1990er Jahren der Aufbau des Emscher Landschaftsparks begann. Zechen- und Industriebrachen werden in neue Parks, Halden und Mülldeponien in Landmarken und Freizeitlandschaften verwandelt. Zu fragen ist, was aus diesen Geschichten für die Freiraumpolitik folgt. Zwei gegensätzliche Thesen werden diskutiert: die Tragedy of the Commons, die im Gemeineigentum die Ursache ökologischer Probleme sieht, während der Common-Property-Ansatz gerade in gemeinschaftlichen Nutzungen einen Ansatz für Problemlösungen sieht. Dabei liegt eine Besonderheit von Freiräumen in ihrem hohen Öffentlichkeitsgrad, d.h. dass sie von vielen Menschen genutzt werden und gleichzeitig mehrere, z.B. produktive, ökologische, politische oder berufliche Funktionen erfüllen. Untersucht wird, inwieweit erfolgreich gesicherte Freiflächen Merkmale von stabilen Common-Property-Institutionen tragen, d.h. welche Funktionen die Freiräume erfüllen, wie ihre Nutzung geregelt ist und vor allem welchen Einfluss die Nutzer auf Entscheidungen haben. Thesenhaft lässt sich zusammenfassen, dass ein Teil der Freiräume sein Wachstum einer derzeit unverzichtbaren Funktion verdankt, nämlich der Camouflage von Müll und Altlasten, die eine bauliche Nutzung ausschließen. Andere Freiräume verdanken ihren Bestand ihren vielfältigen Nutzungen, zur Erholung, durch Denkmäler, für Veranstaltungen, aber auch der Wertsteigerung für umliegende Wohngebiete. Ein kleiner Teil der Freiräume hat tatsächlich einen Common-Property-Charakter: Kleingartenanlagen, die von bürgerschaftlichen Gruppen gegründeten Parks sowie die Flächen, die durch Bürgerinitiativen o.ä. gegen eine bauliche Umnutzung verteidigt werden. Grund genug, um die Idee eines Netzwerks von Parkvereinen aufzugreifen, die sich von bürgerschaftlicher Seite aus für Freiräume einsetzen können.

How do domestic policies affect the integration of Ethiopian fertiliser markets with world markets?

Frequent shifts in policy on fertiliser markets have occurred in Ethiopia with the aim of facilitating both physical and economic access of farmers to fertiliser. The last shift was the introduction of a monopoly on each stage of the supply chain in 2008. Furthermore, government control of prices and margins as well as stockholding programmes are also present on the markets. This paper evaluates the effect of these policies on the integration of domestic with world markets of fertiliser, using cointegration methods. Time series data of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea prices on world, import and retail markets between 1971 and 2012 are used. The findings show high transmission of price signals from world markets to import prices for both DAP and urea. However, between import and retail prices there is no evidence of cointegration for urea, while for DAP full price transmission is concluded. In the retail market, domestic transaction costs associated with storing large volumes of fertiliser act as a buffer between import and retail prices, especially for urea. Therefore, economic benefits could be achieved by reducing the size of stocks and revising the demand estimation process.

Efectos sobre el sector lácteo en Colombia de la desgravación simultanea de aranceles a los productos del sector, negociada en el tratado de libre comercio con la Unión Europea

Con la firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLC) entre los países que conforman la Unión Europea (UE) y Colombia, se abre un camino complejo y dinámico de flujos en comercio exterior que, sin duda, traerá beneficios y desventajas para la actividad productora de leche cruda en Colombia, a raíz de la forma como se hicieron las negociaciones del acuerdo. Partiendo de esta premisa, el presente trabajo de grado, hace un análisis cualitativo de los efectos previsibles que la implementación del TLC de la referencia tendrá sobre el sector lácteo en Colombia