Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship of high energy expenditure and variation in dietary intake with reporting accuracy on 7 day food records and diet histories in a group of healthy adult volunteers

Objectives: To assess the accuracy of reporting from both a diet history and food record and identify some of the characteristics of more accurate reporters in a group of healthy adult volunteers for an energy balance study. Design: Prospective measurements in free-living people. Setting: Wollongong, Australia. Subjects: Fifteen healthy volunteers (seven male, eight female; aged 22 -59 y; body mass index (BMI) 19 - 33 kg/m(2)) from the local community in the city of Wollongong, Australia. Interventions: Measurement of energy intake via diet history interview and 7 day food records, total energy expenditure by the doubly labelled water technique over 14 days, physical activity by questionnaire, and body fat by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Increased misreporting of energy intake was associated with increased energy expenditure (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001, diet history; r(s)=0.79, P=0.0005, food records) but was not associated with age, sex, BMI or body fat. Range in number of recorded dinner foods correlated positively with energy expenditure (r(s)=0.63, P=0.01) and degree of misreporting (r(s)=0.71, P=0.003, diet history; r(s)=0.63, P=0.01, food records). Variation in energy intake at dinner and over the whole day identified by the food records correlated positively with energy expenditure (r=0.58, P = 0.02) and misreporting on the diet history (r=0.62, P=0.01). Conclusions: Subjects who are highly active or who have variable dietary and exercise behaviour may be less accurate in reporting dietary intake. Our findings indicate that it may be necessary to screen for these characteristics in studies where accuracy of reporting at an individual level is critical. Sponsorship: The study was supported in part by Australian Research Council funds made available through the University of Wollongong.

Ethephon promotion of crop abscission for unshaken and mechanically shaken macadamia

Promotion of fruit abscission in macadamia, Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae), has potential to reduce costs associated with prolonged harvesting of late-abscising cultivars. Effects of ethephon [(2-chloroethyl) phosphonic acid] on fruit removal force and crop abscission were monitored at 3 stages of the harvest season on both unshaken and mechanically shaken trees of the late-abscising macadamia cultivar A16. Ethephon application, tree shaking, or a combination of the 2 methods, accelerated crop removal from the tree at all stages during harvest. Early harvest before natural abscission resulted in little or no difference in nut-in-shell and kernel weight, kernel recovery and kernel oil content. Delaying ethephon application or tree shaking until commencement of natural abscission resulted in greater crop removal. Fruit removal force declined naturally towards 1 kgf at this stage, and was further reduced by ethephon application. The most effective approach for harvest acceleration was to reduce fruit removal force, before tree shaking, by spraying trees with ethephon.

Establishment of Nilaparvata Iugens Stl in rice crop nurseries: a possible source of outbreaks

We tested the hypothesis that early-planted seedbeds of rioe are mere heavily infested with brown planthopper (BPH) than later seedbeds, and that transplanted plants with lBPH are a source of subsequent population increase and possible outbreaks. The experiments were conducted at CARDI and Takeo province in wet season 2000 and early wet 2 season 200 I. BPH at O. 25. 50, 100, 200 1m were infested onto plants with low and high fertilizer treatments. Rice seeds of varieties moderately and highly susceptible to BPH were sown 3 weeks early, 2 weeks early, at the normal time, and later than normal (5 weeks) and treated with low and high fertilizer rates. At Takeo, the 3< weeks early seedbeds were infested by BPH migration, and both varieties with high fertilizer caught more immigrant insects and subsequently had damaging outbreaks of BPH in the third generation. At CARDl, no seedbeds were infested with immigrant BPH. Seedbeds in areas with continuous cropping of rice have a high risk of BPH attack, Seedlings infested with 200, 100, and 50 BPI[/m2 resulted in death of the plant. Plants with 100 and 200 BPH/m'! were kj[Jed sooner. With 25 BPIVm2 plants were not kllled, but subsequent population increase caused yi eld reduction. Yield loss was high ill higlh fertilizer treated plants. Key words , ,

Pea mania: deranged behaviour in cattle grazing a pea crop (Pisum sativum var arvense)

Hypersensitivity to external stimuli, progressing in some animals to manic behaviour, occurred in a cattle herd that grazed a crop of field peas (Pisum sativum var arvense) in the pre-flowering stage. Haematological and biochemical analyses eliminated hypomagnesaemia and ketosis as diagnoses. Other than two steers euthanased due to injuries sustained during manic episodes, all affected animals survived, recovering over 3 days when moved to alternative pasture. No necropsies were conducted. No microbial pathogens or endophytes were found on or in the plants. A previously reported incident in Victoria in 1987 in cattle grazing peas appeared to be of a similar nature. Environmental factors leading to these incidents were not clearly identified.

Using crop simulation to generate genotype by environment interaction effects for sorghum in water-limited environments

Multi-environment trials (METs) used to evaluate breeding lines vary in the number of years that they sample. We used a cropping systems model to simulate the target population of environments (TPE) for 6 locations over 108 years for 54 'near-isolines' of sorghum in north-eastern Australia. For a single reference genotype, each of 547 trials was clustered into 1 of 3 'drought environment types' (DETs) based on a seasonal water stress index. Within sequential METs of 2 years duration, the frequencies of these drought patterns often differed substantially from those derived for the entire TPE. This was reflected in variation in the mean yield of the reference genotype. For the TPE and for 2-year METs, restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate components of genotypic and genotype by environment variance. These also varied substantially, although not in direct correlation with frequency of occurrence of different DETs over a 2-year period. Combined analysis over different numbers of seasons demonstrated the expected improvement in the correlation between MET estimates of genotype performance and the overall genotype averages as the number of seasons in the MET was increased.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.