Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Latent Stick-Breaking Processes.

We develop a model for stochastic processes with random marginal distributions. Our model relies on a stick-breaking construction for the marginal distribution of the process, and introduces dependence across locations by using a latent Gaussian copula model as the mechanism for selecting the atoms. The resulting latent stick-breaking process (LaSBP) induces a random partition of the index space, with points closer in space having a higher probability of being in the same cluster. We develop an efficient and straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for computation and discuss applications in financial econometrics and ecology. This article has supplementary material online.

Are the native giant tortoises from the Seychelles really extinct? A genetic perspective based on mtDNA and microsatellite data.

The extinction of the giant tortoises of the Seychelles Archipelago has long been suspected but is not beyond doubt. A recent morphological study of the giant tortoises of the western Indian Ocean concluded that specimens of two native Seychelles species survive in captivity today alongside giant tortoises of Aldabra, which are numerous in zoos as well as in the wild. This claim has been controversial because some of the morphological characters used to identify these species, several measures of carapace morphology, are reputed to be quite sensitive to captive conditions. Nonetheless, the potential survival of giant tortoise species previously thought extinct presents an exciting scenario for conservation. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellites to examine the validity of the rediscovered species of Seychelles giant tortoises. Our results indicate that the morphotypes suspected to represent Seychelles species do not show levels of variation and genetic structuring consistent with long periods of reproductive isolation. We found no variation in the mitochondrial control region among 55 individuals examined and no genetic structuring in eight microsatellite loci, pointing to the survival of just a single lineage of Indian Ocean tortoises.

Costa Rica's payment for environmental services program: intention, implementation, and impact.

We evaluated the intention, implementation, and impact of Costa Rica's program of payments for environmental services (PSA), which was established in the late 1990s. Payments are given to private landowners who own land in forest areas in recognition of the ecosystem services their land provides. To characterize the distribution of PSA in Costa Rica, we combined remote sensing with geographic information system databases and then used econometrics to explore the impacts of payments on deforestation. Payments were distributed broadly across ecological and socioeconomic gradients, but the 1997-2000 deforestation rate was not significantly lower in areas that received payments. Other successful Costa Rican conservation policies, including those prior to the PSA program, may explain the current reduction in deforestation rates. The PSA program is a major advance in the global institutionalization of ecosystem investments because few, if any, other countries have such a conservation history and because much can be learned from Costa Rica's experiences.

What the brain stem tells the frontal cortex. II. Role of the SC-MD-FEF pathway in corollary discharge.

One way we keep track of our movements is by monitoring corollary discharges or internal copies of movement commands. This study tested a hypothesis that the pathway from superior colliculus (SC) to mediodorsal thalamus (MD) to frontal eye field (FEF) carries a corollary discharge about saccades made into the contralateral visual field. We inactivated the MD relay node with muscimol in monkeys and measured corollary discharge deficits using a double-step task: two sequential saccades were made to the locations of briefly flashed targets. To make second saccades correctly, monkeys had to internally monitor their first saccades; therefore deficits in the corollary discharge representation of first saccades should disrupt second saccades. We found, first, that monkeys seemed to misjudge the amplitudes of their first saccades; this was revealed by systematic shifts in second saccade end points. Thus corollary discharge accuracy was impaired. Second, monkeys were less able to detect trial-by-trial variations in their first saccades; this was revealed by reduced compensatory changes in second saccade angles. Thus corollary discharge precision also was impaired. Both deficits occurred only when first saccades went into the contralateral visual field. Single-saccade generation was unaffected. Additional deficits occurred in reaction time and overall performance, but these were bilateral. We conclude that the SC-MD-FEF pathway conveys a corollary discharge used for coordinating sequential saccades and possibly for stabilizing vision across saccades. This pathway is the first elucidated in what may be a multilevel chain of corollary discharge circuits extending from the extraocular motoneurons up into cerebral cortex.

SMERED: A Bayesian Approach to Graphical Record Linkage and De-duplication

We propose a novel unsupervised approach for linking records across arbitrarily many files, while simultaneously detecting duplicate records within files. Our key innovation is to represent the pattern of links between records as a {\em bipartite} graph, in which records are directly linked to latent true individuals, and only indirectly linked to other records. This flexible new representation of the linkage structure naturally allows us to estimate the attributes of the unique observable people in the population, calculate $k$-way posterior probabilities of matches across records, and propagate the uncertainty of record linkage into later analyses. Our linkage structure lends itself to an efficient, linear-time, hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which overcomes many obstacles encountered by previously proposed methods of record linkage, despite the high dimensional parameter space. We assess our results on real and simulated data.

Grammar acquisition and processing instruction: Secondary and cumulative effects

Research on Processing Instruction has so far investigated the primary effects of Processing Instruction. In this book, the results of a series of experimental studies investigating possible secondary and cumulative effects of Processing Instruction on the acquisition of French, Italian and English as a second language will be presented. The results of the three experiments have demonstrated that Processing Instruction not only provides learners the direct or primary benefit of learning to process and produce the morphological form on which they received instruction, but also a secondary benefit in that they transferred that training to processing and producing another morphological form on which they had received no instruction.