Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Democracy, Crime and Justice. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences

As a growing number of nations embark on a path to democracy, criminologists have become increasingly interested and engaged in the challenges, concerns, and questions connecting democracy with both crime and criminal justice. Rising levels of violence and street crime, white collar crime and corruption both in countries where democracy is securely in place and where it is struggling, have fuelled a deepening skepticism as to the capacity of democracy to deliver on its promise of security and justice for all citizens. What role does crime and criminal justice play in the future of democracy and for democratic political development on a global level? The editors of this special volume of The Annals realized the importance of collecting research from a broad spectrum of countries and covering a range of problems that affect citizens, politicians, and criminal justice officials. The articles here represent a solid balance between mature democracies like the U.S. and U.K. as well as emerging democracies around the globe – specifically in Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. They are based on large and small cross-national samples, regional comparisons, and case studies. Each contribution addresses a seminal question for the future of democratic political development across the globe. What is the role of criminal justice in the process of building democracy and instilling confidence in its institutions? Is there a role for unions in democratizing police forces? What is the impact of widespread disenfranchisement of felons on democratic citizenship and the life of democratic institutions? Under what circumstances do mature democracies adopt punitive sentencing regimes? Addressing sensitive topics such as relations between police and the Muslim communities of Western Europe in the wake of terrorist attacks, this volume also sheds light on the effects of terrorism on mature democracies under increasing pressure to provide security for their citizens. By taking a broad vantage point, this collection of research delves into complex topics such as the relationship between the process of democratization and violent crime waves; the impact of rising crime rates on newly established as well as secure democracies; how crime may endanger the transition to democracy; and how existing practices of criminal justice in mature democracies affect their core values and institutions. The collection of these insightful articles not only begins to fill a gap in criminological research but also addresses issues of critical interest to political scientists as well as other social and behavioral scientists and scholars. Taking a fresh approach to the intersection of crime, criminal justice, and democracy, this volume of The Annals is a must-read for criminologists and political scientists and provides a solid foundation for further interdisciplinary research.

Use of concept maps in reforming teaching Family and Consumer Sciences in Kuwait

This paper addresses the professional development of Kuwaiti teachers in the use of concept maps to teach Family and Consumer Science. A key aim of the study was to evaluate the degree to which the use of concept maps would influence the way Kuwaiti teachers approach and teach Family and Consumer Studies (FCS) subjects and the degree to which concept maps empower students to critically identify and express their knowledge of the subject being taught. A case study methodology was adopted to follow the implementation of lessons using concept maps by four teachers of middle years. An analysis of the data revealed the positive impact that student-centred teaching tools can have on the reformation of traditional teaching environments. For all teachers, the primary strengths of using concept maps were the ability to generate student interest, to motivate student participation and to enhance student understanding of content. Although a case study design may limit the generalisation and comparative value of the study, the findings of this study remain important to the planning of future professional development programs and the use of concept maps within Kuwait’s FCS curriculum area.

Teaching and learning family and consumer sciences through K-W-L charts

While much of the control and many of the activities found in today’s classrooms have been placed in the hands of the learners and learning has become inquiry-based, there remains a need for teachers to use teaching tools that would facilitate this student-centered teaching process. This article identifies the K-W-L Chart as one such tool and follows a case study of four Kuwaiti ‘Family and Consumer Sciences’ teaching / learning events to evaluate their ability to enhance the learning outcomes of eight students. The research was designed from a qualitative, multi-tiered design approach and was assessed through a constant comparative method of data analysis of interview responses, classroom observations and worksheet-assessments. The results showed that the use of K-W-L Charts influenced the teachers and learners toward a more inquiry-based approach and facilitated a more student-centered and collaborative learning environment, raising the level of interest and the amount of personal input given by the students.

Embedding graphic organisers in the teaching and learning of family and consumer sciences (home economics) in Kuwait

Educational reforms currently being enacted in Kuwaiti Family and Consumer Sciences (FCS) in response to contemporary demands for increased student-centred teaching and learning are challenging for FCS teachers due to their limited experience with student-centred learning tools such as Graphic Organisers (GOs). To adopt these reforms, Kuwaiti teachers require a better understanding of and competency in promoting cognitive learning processes that will maximise student-centred learning approaches. This study followed the experiences of four Grade 6 FCS Kuwaiti teachers as they undertook a Professional Development (PD) program specifically designed to advance their understanding of the use of GOs and then as they implemented what they had learned in their Grade 6 FCS classroom. The PD program developed for this study was informed by Nasseh.s competency PD model as well as Piaget and Ausubel.s cognitive theories. This model enabled an assessment and evaluation of the development of the teachers. competencies as an outcome of the PD program in terms of the adoption of GOs, in particular, and their capacity to use GOs to engage students in personalised, in-depth, learning through critical thinking and understanding. The research revealed that the PD program was influential in reforming the teachers. learning, understanding of and competency in, cognitive and visual theories of learning, so that they facilitated student-centred teaching and learning processes that enabled students to adopt and adapt GOs in constructivist learning. The implementation of five GOs - Flow Chart, Concept Maps, K-W-L Chart, Fishbone Diagram and Venn Diagram - as learning tools in classrooms was investigated to find if changes in pedagogical approach for supporting conceptual learning through cognitive information processing would reduce the cognitive work load of students and produce better learning approaches. The study as evidenced by the participant teachers. responses and classroom observations, showed a marked increase in student interest, participation, critical thought, problem solving skills, as a result of using GOs, compared to using traditional teaching and learning methods. A theoretical model was developed from the study based on the premise that teachers. knowledge of the subject, pedagogy and student learning precede the implementation of student-centred learning reform, that it plays an important role in the implementation of student-centred learning and that it brings about a change in teaching practice. The model affirmed that observed change in teaching-practice included aspects of teachers. beliefs, as well as confidence and effect on workplace and on student learning, including engagement, understanding, critical thinking and problem solving. The model assumed that change in teaching practice is inseparable from teachers. lifelong PD needs related to knowledge, understanding, skills and competency. These findings produced a set of preliminary guidelines for establishing student-centred constructivist strategies in Kuwaiti education while retaining Kuwait.s cultural uniqueness.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Near infrared spectroscopy as a rapid non-invasive tool for agricultural and industrial process management with special reference to avocado and sandalwood industries

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can play a vital role as a cost effective, rapid, non-invasive, reproducible diagnostic tool for many environmental management, agricultural and industrial waste water monitoring applications. In this paper we highlight the ability of NIRS technology to be used as a diagnostic tool in agricultural and environmental applications through the successful assessment of Fourier Transform NIRS to predict α santalol in sandalwood chip samples, and maturity of ‘Hass’ avocado fruit based on dry matter content. Presented at the Third International Conference on Challenges in Environmental Science & Engineering, CESE-2010. 26 September – 1 October 2010, The Sebel, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.

Tracking the evolution of waste recycling research using overlay maps of science

Tracking the evolution of research in waste recycling science (WRS) can be valuable for environmental agencies, as well as for recycling businesses. Maps of science are visual, easily readable representations of the cognitive structure of a branch of science, a particular area of research or the global spectrum of scientific production. They are generally built upon evidence collected from reliable sources of information, such as patent and scientific publication databases. This study uses the methodology developed by Rafols et al. (2010) to make a “double overlay map” of WRS upon a basemap reflecting the cognitive structure of all journal-published science, for the years 2005 and 2010. The analysis has taken into account the cognitive areas where WRS articles are published and the areas from where it takes its intellectual nourishing, paying special attention to the growing trends of the key areas. Interpretation of results lead to the conclusion that extraction of energy from waste will probably be an important research topic in the future, along with developments in general chemistry and chemical engineering oriented to the recovery of valuable materials from waste. Agricultural and material sciences, together with the combined economics, politics and geography field, are areas with which WRS shows a relevant and ever increasing cognitive relationship.

International sources of fisheries information to enhance fish production, poverty alleviation and food security in Nigeria and developing Nigerian Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Database

The paper viewed the decline in information provision in Nigeria to poor library development, which could be attributed to poor funding. The consequence is that current journal and books are not available in nigerian fisheries libraries. Information which can be regarded as the first factor of production on which other factors like land, labour and capital depend, can only be provided at the right time when libraries are better founded. For now if there must be increase in fish production, poverty alleviation and food security in Nigeria, our fisheries scientists and policy makers will have to rely on international sources of information using the advantage of internet connectivity. Some of such sources discussed in this paper are ASFA, AGORA, FAO DOAJ, FISHBASE, IAMSLIC, INASP, INASP-PERI, INASP-AJOL, ODINAFRICA, SIFAR, WAS, and ABASFR. However, reliance on international sources must not be at the total neglect of harnessing nigerian fisheries information. For the Nigerian Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Database being developed by NIFFR to attain an international status like those enumerated above, scientists and publishers are requested to take the pain of depositing copies of their publications with NIFFR for inclusion in the Database

Synthesis of education programs, scholarship, loan, and internship opportunities available to assist in increasing the numbers of minorities working in fisheries and marine sciences

This report is divided into six sections, the first of which provides information on documents that emphasize the need for education/training of minorities in the sciences including marine science. Also provided is material students can use to find out about careers in the sciences, some universities that offer marine science education, and curricula that should be considered. The second section deals with existing programs designed to train pre-college students and prepare them either for further education or potential employment in the sciences. The next four sections deal with existing programs in the marine sciences for college-level students, scholarships and scholarship programs, examples of loan programs, and internships and internship programs.

Annual Report of the East African Agricultural and Fisheries Research Council, 1961

In June, 1961, discussions were held in London to consider the future of the East Africa High Commission Services. It was agreed that the functions of the East Africa High Commission, with the exception of Defence, should be transfered to the East African Common Services Organization, which was subsequently established on 9th December, 1961, on the achievement of independence by Tanganyika. The Common Services Organization is controlled by an Authority, consisting of the principal elected Minister in each of the East African territories, which is responsible for the overall policy and direction of the Organization. The Authority is assisted by four Ministerial Committees, of which one is responsible for the Social and Research Services of the Organization

X-ray simulations for imaging applications in the agricultural and food industry

R. Zwiggelaar, C.R. Bull, and M.J. Mooney, 'X-ray simulations for imaging applications in the agricultural and food industry', Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research 63(2), 161-170 (1996)

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997-2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997-2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 PgC year-1 with significant interannual variability during 1997-2001 (2.8 Pg Cyear-1 in 1998 and 1.6 PgC year-1 in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002-2007 were rela-tively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year-1) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg Cyear-1) and 2009 (1.5 PgC year-1) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002-2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001-2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 PgC year-1. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series. © 2010 Author(s).