A integra����o da ind��stria de energia el��trica na América do Sul: an��lise dos modelos t��cnicos e de regulamenta����o.

Os recursos energ��ticos naturais n��o est��o distribu��dos uniformemente pelo globo terrestre, e s��o raros os pa��ses que os t��m na quantidade e na qualidade que necessitam para atender as suas necessidades. Ante a essa realidade, o com��rcio de energ��ticos tem sido a forma principal de acesso dos pa��ses que n��o os disp��em em rela����o as suas necessidades. Esse com��rcio, que muitas vezes �� regido por tratados ou acordos firmados entre pa��ses ou blocos econ��micos regionais, diversificou-se, traspassou fronteiras e, atualmente, tornou-se um item significativo nas pautas de exporta����es de v��rios pa��ses. A evolu����o desse com��rcio tem a favor a alternativa de integra����o por meio de interconex��es estrat��gicas de redes e da constitui����o de mercados comuns, que viabilizam a explora����o do potencial de complementariedade energ��tica de forma mais racional. Diante desse contexto, esta disserta����o apresenta um estudo explorat��rio que avalia o estado da arte da integra����o energ��tica sul-americana e faz an��lises dos modelos t��cnicos, das regulamenta����es, das regula����es regionais e multilaterais estabelecidas pelos blocos econ��micos sul-americanos e pela Organiza����o Mundial do Com��rcio. De forma complementar, o estudo verifica e apresenta os fatores que podem comprometer o avan��o e a institui����o de um futuro mercado comum de energia no continente, conclui pela viabilidade do prosseguimento de a����es em prol da amplia����o da integra����o da ind��stria de energia el��trica na América do Sul e tece recomenda����es. Os resultados e as recomenda����es deste trabalho oferecem um embasamento procedimental para a gest��o e a atua����o institucional dos envolvidos no processo de integra����o energ��tica da ind��stria de energia el��trica da regi��o sul americana.

Estudo do balan��o de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

C��lculo das incertezas clim��ticas sobre América do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferi����o atrav��s das redes neurais artificiais

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)