Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Meta-analysis of 28,141 individuals identifies common variants within five new loci that influence uric acid concentrations

Elevated serum uric acid levels cause gout and are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. To investigate the polygenetic basis of serum uric acid levels, we conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association scans from 14 studies totalling 28,141 participants of European descent, resulting in identification of 954 SNPs distributed across nine loci that exceeded the threshold of genome-wide significance, five of which are novel. Overall, the common variants associated with serum uric acid levels fall in the following nine regions: SLC2A9 (p = 5.2x10(-201)), ABCG2 (p = 3.1x10(-26)), SLC17A1 (p = 3.0x10(-14)), SLC22A11 (p = 6.7x10(-14)), SLC22A12 (p = 2.0x10(-9)), SLC16A9 (p = 1.1x10(-8)), GCKR (p = 1.4x10(-9)), LRRC16A (p = 8.5x10(-9)), and near PDZK1 (p = 2.7x10(-9)). Identified variants were analyzed for gender differences. We found that the minor allele for rs734553 in SLC2A9 has greater influence in lowering uric acid levels in women and the minor allele of rs2231142 in ABCG2 elevates uric acid levels more strongly in men compared to women. To further characterize the identified variants, we analyzed their association with a panel of metabolites. rs12356193 within SLC16A9 was associated with DL-carnitine (p = 4.0x10(-26)) and propionyl-L-carnitine (p = 5.0x10(-8)) concentrations, which in turn were associated with serum UA levels (p = 1.4x10(-57) and p = 8.1x10(-54), respectively), forming a triangle between SNP, metabolites, and UA levels. Taken together, these associations highlight additional pathways that are important in the regulation of serum uric acid levels and point toward novel potential targets for pharmacological intervention to prevent or treat hyperuricemia. In addition, these findings strongly support the hypothesis that transport proteins are key in regulating serum uric acid levels.

Fencing artificial waterpoints failed to influence density and distribution of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus)

Provision of artificial waterpoints in Australian rangelands has resulted in an increase in the range and density of kangaroos. At high densities, kangaroos can inhibit vegetation regeneration, particularly in some protected areas where harvesting is prohibited. Fencing off waterpoints has been proposed to limit these impacts. Our aim was to determine whether fencing off waterpoints during a drought (when kangaroos would be especially water-limited) would influence the density and distribution of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus). Two waterpoints were fenced within the first 6 months of the 27-month study and a further two waterpoints were kept unfenced as controls in Idalia National Park, western Queensland. We estimated kangaroo densities around waterpoints from walked line-transect counts, and their grazing distribution from dung-pellet counts. Fencing off waterpoints failed to influence either the density or distribution up to 4 km from the waterpoints. Our results indicate that food availability, rather than the location of waterpoints, determines kangaroo distribution. Few areas in the rangelands are beyond kangaroos' convenient reach from permanent waterpoints. Therefore, fencing off waterpoints without explicitly considering the spatial context in relation to other available water sources will fail to achieve vegetation regeneration.

The Distribution of Henipaviruses in Southeast Asia and Australasia: Is Wallace's Line a Barrier to Nipah Virus?

Nipah virus (NiV) (Genus Henipavirus) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans and has been found in bats of the genus Pteropus. Whilst NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV-infection has been found in pteropid bats in some of Australia's closest neighbours. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of henipaviruses in fruit bat (Family Pteropodidae) populations to the north of Australia. In particular we tested the hypothesis that Nipah virus is restricted to west of Wallace's Line. Fruit bats from Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia were tested for the presence of antibodies to Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus, and tested for the presence of HeV, NiV or henipavirus RNA by PCR. Evidence was found for the presence of Nipah virus in both Pteropus vampyrus and Rousettus amplexicaudatus populations from East Timor. Serology and PCR also suggested the presence of a henipavirus that was neither HeV nor NiV in Pteropus alecto and Acerodon celebensis. The results demonstrate the presence of NiV in the fruit bat populations on the eastern side of Wallace's Line and within 500 km of Australia. They indicate the presence of non-NiV, non-HeV henipaviruses in fruit bat populations of Sulawesi and Sumba and possibly in Papua New Guinea. It appears that NiV is present where P. vampyrus occurs, such as in the fruit bat populations of Timor, but where this bat species is absent other henipaviruses may be present, as on Sulawesi and Sumba. Evidence was obtained for the presence henipaviruses in the non-Pteropid species R. amplexicaudatus and in A. celebensis. The findings of this work fill some gaps in knowledge in geographical and species distribution of henipaviruses in Australasia which will contribute to planning of risk management and surveillance activities.

Lens shape and refractive index distribution in type 1 diabetes

Purpose: To compare lens dimensions and refractive index distributions in type 1 diabetes and age-matched control groups. Methods: There were 17 participants with type 1 diabetes, consisting of two subgroups (7 young [23 ± 4 years] and 10 older [54 ± 4 years] participants), with 23 controls (13 young, 24 ± 4 years; 10 older, 55 ± 4 years). For each participant, one eye was tested with relaxed accommodation. A 3T clinical magnetic resonance imaging scanner was used to image the eye, employing a multiple spin echo (MSE) sequence to determine lens dimensions and refractive index profiles along the equatorial and axial directions. Results: The diabetes group had significantly smaller lens equatorial diameters and larger lens axial thicknesses than the control group (diameter mean ± 95% confidence interval [CI]: diabetes group 8.65 ± 0.26 mm, control group 9.42 ± 0.18 mm; axial thickness: diabetes group 4.33 ± 0.30 mm, control group 3.80 ± 0.14 mm). These differences were also significant within each age group. The older group had significantly greater axial thickness than the young group (older group 4.35 ± 0.26 mm, young group 3.70 ± 0.25 mm). Center refractive indices of diabetes and control groups were not significantly different. There were some statistically significant differences between the refractive index fitting parameters of young and older groups, but not between diabetes and control groups of the same age. Conclusions: Smaller lens diameters occurred in the diabetes groups than in the age-matched control groups. Differences in refractive index distribution between persons with and without diabetes are too small to have important effects on instruments measuring axial thickness.

Strong resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae): its characterisation, a rapid assay for diagnosis and its distribution in Australia

BACKGROUND: The recent development of very high resistance to phosphine in rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), seriously threatens stored-grain biosecurity. The aim was to characterise this resistance, to develop a rapid bioassay for its diagnosis to support pest management and to document the distribution of resistance in Australia in 20072011. RESULTS: Bioassays of purified laboratory reference strains and field-collected samples revealed three phenotypes: susceptible, weakly resistant and strongly resistant. With resistance factors of > 1000 x , resistance to phosphine expressed by the strong resistance phenotype was higher than reported for any stored-product insect species. The new time-to-knockdown assay rapidly and accurately diagnosed each resistance phenotype within 6 h. Although less frequent in western Australia, weak resistance was detected throughout all grain production regions. Strong resistance occurred predominantly in central storages in eastern Australia. CONCLUSION: Resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle is expressed through two identifiable phenotypes: weak and strong. Strong resistance requires urgent changes to current fumigation dosages. The development of a rapid assay for diagnosis of resistance enables the provision of same-day advice to expedite resistance management decisions. (c) 2012 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Group portrait of the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee; Shanghai Portraits; Groups

Photograph contained within portfolio including title page and signatures

Resting sites, edge effects and dispersion of a polyphagous Bactrocera fruit fly within crops of different architecture

The spot or strip application of poisoned protein bait is a lure-and-kill technique used for the management of fruit flies. Knowledge of where flies occur in the crop environment is an important part of maximizing the efficacy of this tool. Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous pest of horticulture for which very little is known about its distribution within crops. With particular reference to edge effects, we monitored the abundance of B. tryoni in two crops of different architecture; strawberry and apple. In strawberries, we found more flies on the crop edge early in the fruiting season, which lessened gradually and eventually disappeared as the season progressed. In apple orchards, no such edge effect was observed and flies were found equally throughout the orchard. We postulated these differences may be due to differences in crop height (high vs. short) and/or crop canopy architecture (opened and branched in apple, dense and closed in strawberry). In a field cage trial, we tested these predictions using artificial plants of different height and canopy condition. Height and canopy structure type had no significant effects on fly oviposition and protein feeding, but the ‘apple’ type canopy significantly influenced resting. We thus postulate that there was an edge effect in strawberry because the crop was not providing resting sites and flies were doing so in vegetation around the field margins. The finding that B. tryoni shows different resting site preferences based on plant architecture offers the potential for strategic manipulation of the fly through specific border or inter-row plantings.

Influence of dingoes on sheep distribution in Australia

Objective To describe the influence of the dingo (Canis lupus dingo) on the past, present and future distributions of sheep in Australia. Design The role of the dingo in the rise and fall of sheep numbers is reviewed, revised data are provided on the present distribution and density of sheep and dingoes, and historical patterns of sheep distribution are used to explore the future of rangeland sheep grazing. Results Dingoes are a critical causal factor in the distribution of sheep at the national, regional and local levels. Dingo predation contributed substantially to the historical contraction of the sheep industry to its present-day distribution, which is almost exclusively confined to areas within fenced dingo exclusion zones. Dingo populations and/or their influence are now present and increasing in all sheep production zones of Australia, inclusive of areas that were once dingo free'. Conclusions Rangeland production of wool and sheep meat is predicted to disappear within 30-40 years if the present rate of contraction of the industry continues unabated. Understanding the influence of dingoes on sheep production may help refine disease response strategies and help predict the future distribution of sheep and their diseases.

Resting sites, edge effects and dispersion of a polyphagous Bactrocera fruit fly within crops of different architecture

The spot or strip application of poisoned protein bait is a lure-and-kill technique used for the management of fruit flies. Knowledge of where flies occur in the crop environment is an important part of maximizing the efficacy of this tool. Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous pest of horticulture for which very little is known about its distribution within crops. With particular reference to edge effects, we monitored the abundance of B. tryoni in two crops of different architecture; strawberry and apple. In strawberries, we found more flies on the crop edge early in the fruiting season, which lessened gradually and eventually disappeared as the season progressed. In apple orchards, no such edge effect was observed and flies were found equally throughout the orchard. We postulated these differences may be due to differences in crop height (high vs. short) and/or crop canopy architecture (opened and branched in apple, dense and closed in strawberry). In a field cage trial, we tested these predictions using artificial plants of different height and canopy condition. Height and canopy structure type had no significant effects on fly oviposition and protein feeding, but the 'apple' type canopy significantly influenced resting. We thus postulate that there was an edge effect in strawberry because the crop was not providing resting sites and flies were doing so in vegetation around the field margins. The finding that B. tryoni shows different resting site preferences based on plant architecture offers the potential for strategic manipulation of the fly through specific border or inter-row plantings. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Composition operators, Aleksandrov measures and value distribution of analytic maps in the unit disc

A composition operator is a linear operator that precomposes any given function with another function, which is held fixed and called the symbol of the composition operator. This dissertation studies such operators and questions related to their theory in the case when the functions to be composed are analytic in the unit disc of the complex plane. Thus the subject of the dissertation lies at the intersection of analytic function theory and operator theory. The work contains three research articles. The first article is concerned with the value distribution of analytic functions. In the literature there are two different conditions which characterize when a composition operator is compact on the Hardy spaces of the unit disc. One condition is in terms of the classical Nevanlinna counting function, defined inside the disc, and the other condition involves a family of certain measures called the Aleksandrov (or Clark) measures and supported on the boundary of the disc. The article explains the connection between these two approaches from a function-theoretic point of view. It is shown that the Aleksandrov measures can be interpreted as kinds of boundary limits of the Nevanlinna counting function as one approaches the boundary from within the disc. The other two articles investigate the compactness properties of the difference of two composition operators, which is beneficial for understanding the structure of the set of all composition operators. The second article considers this question on the Hardy and related spaces of the disc, and employs Aleksandrov measures as its main tool. The results obtained generalize those existing for the case of a single composition operator. However, there are some peculiarities which do not occur in the theory of a single operator. The third article studies the compactness of the difference operator on the Bloch and Lipschitz spaces, improving and extending results given in the previous literature. Moreover, in this connection one obtains a general result which characterizes the compactness and weak compactness of the difference of two weighted composition operators on certain weighted Hardy-type spaces.

Social organization of household finance: Understanding artful financial systems in the home

In this paper we discuss results of a field study focused on understanding the ways money and financial issues are handled within family settings. Families develop ‘systems’ or methods through which they coordinate and manage their everyday financial activities. Through an analysis of our fieldwork data collected from fifteen families, we provide several examples of such systems, highlighting their qualities and illustrating how such systems come to support the handling of financial activities in the home. Our results show that these systems are developed with a careful consideration of familial values, relationships and routines; and incorporate the use of physical and digital tools. Consequently, we suggest that design should consider the use and non-use of technology when supporting household financial management, taking into account the richness of families’ existing organically formed practices surrounding financial systems. Finally, our findings point to the fact that financial management in the domestic setting is socially organized and is closely connected to supporting everyday household activities.

Spatial patterning of the distribution of Ca-2+ in Dictyostelium discoideum

We have shown previously that the Ca2+-specific fluorescent dyes chlortetracycline (CTC) and indo-1/AM can be used to distinguish between prestalk and prespore cells in Dictyostelium discoideum at a very early stage. In the present study, pre- and post-aggregative amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum were labelled with CTC or indo-1 and their fluorescence monitored after being drawn into a fine glass capillary. The cells rapidly form two zones of Ca2+-CTC or Ca2+-indo-1 fluorescence. Anterior (air side) cells display a high level of fluorescence; the level drops in the middle portion of the capillary and rises again to a lesser extent in the posteriormost cells (oil side). When bounded by air on both sides, the cells display high fluorescence at both ends. When oil is present at both ends of the capillary, there is little fluorescence except for small regions at the ends. These outcomes are evident within a couple of minutes of the start of the experiment and the fluorescence pattern intensifies over the course of time. By using the indicator neutral red, as well as with CTC and indo-1, we show that a band displaying strong fluorescence moves away from the anterior end before stabilizing at the anterior-posterior boundary. We discuss our findings in relation to the role of Ca2+ in cell-type differentiation in Dictyostelium discoideum.

Effects of turbidity on feeding and distribution of fish

In aquatic systems, the ability of both the predator and prey to detect each other may be impaired by turbidity. This could lead to significant changes in the trophic interactions in the food web of lakes. Most fish use their vision for predation and the location of prey can be highly influenced by light level and clarity of the water environment. Turbidity is an optical property of water that causes light to be scattered and absorbed by particles and molecules. Turbidity is highly variable in lakes, due to seasonal changes in suspended sediments, algal blooms and wind-driven suspension of sediments especially in shallow waters. There is evidence that human activity has increased erosion leading to increased turbidity in aquatic systems. Turbidity could also play a significant role in distribution of fish. Turbidity could act as a cover for small fish and reduce predation risk. Diel horizontal migration by fish is common in shallow lakes and is considered as consequences of either optimal foraging behaviour for food or as a trade-off between foraging and predator avoidance. In turbid lakes, diel horizontal migration patterns could differ since turbidity can act as a refuge itself and affect the predator-prey interactions. Laboratory experiments were conducted with perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and white bream (Abramis björkna (L.)) to clarify the effects of turbidity on their feeding. Additionally to clarify the effects of turbidity on predator preying on different types of prey, pikeperch larvae (Sander lucioperca (L.)), Daphnia pulex (Leydig), Sida crystallina (O.F. Müller), and Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) were used as prey in different experiments. To clarify the role of turbidity in distribution and diel horizontal migration of perch, roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)) and white bream, field studies were conducted in shallow turbid lakes. A clear and a turbid shallow lake were compared to investigate distribution of perch and roach in these two lakes in a 15-year study period. Feeding efficiency of perch and white bream was not significantly affected with increasing clay turbidity up to 50 NTU. The perch experiments with pikeperch larvae suggested that clay turbidity could act as a refuge especially at turbidity levels higher than 50 NTU. Perch experiments with different prey types suggested that pikeperch larvae probably use turbidity as a refuge better compared to Daphnia. Increase in turbidity probably has stronger affect on perch predating on plant-attached prey. The main findings of the thesis show that turbidity can play a significant role in distribution of fish. Perch and roach could use turbidity as refuge when macrophytes disappear while small perch may also use high turbidity as refuge when macrophytes are present. Floating-leaved macrophytes are probably good refuges for small fish in clay-turbid lakes and provide a certain level of turbidity and not too complex structure for refuge. The results give light to the predator-prey interactions in turbid environments. Turbidity of water should be taken in to account when studying the diel horizontal migrations and distribution of fish in shallow lakes.

A flexible tool for integrated planning of active distribution networks

This paper presents a flexible and integrated planning tool for active distribution network to maximise the benefits of having high level s of renewables, customer engagement, and new technology implementations. The tool has two main processing parts: “optimisation” and “forecast”. The “optimization” part is an automated and integrated planning framework to optimize the net present value (NPV) of investment strategy for electric distribution network augmentation over large areas and long planning horizons (e.g. 5 to 20 years) based on a modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO). The “forecast” is a flexible agent-based framework to produce load duration curves (LDCs) of load forecasts for different levels of customer engagement, energy storage controls, and electric vehicles (EVs). In addition, “forecast” connects the existing databases of utility to the proposed tool as well as outputs the load profiles and network plan in Google Earth. This integrated tool enables different divisions within a utility to analyze their programs and options in a single platform using comprehensive information.