Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Critical discontinuous phase transition in the threshold contact process

We analyze a threshold contact process on a square lattice in which particles are created on empty sites with at least two neighboring particles and are annihilated spontaneously. We show by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the process undergoes a discontinuous phase transition at a definite value of the annihilation parameter, in accordance with the Gibbs phase rule, and that the discontinuous transition exhibits critical behavior. The simulations were performed by using boundary conditions in which the sites of the border of the lattice are permanently occupied by particles.

Near threshold vibrational excitation of molecules by positron impact: A projection operator approach

We report vibrational excitation (v(i) = 0 -> v(f) = 1) cross-sections for positron scattering by H(2) and model calculations for the (v(i) = 0 -> v(f) = 1) excitation of the C-C symmetric stretch mode of C(2)H(2). The Feshbach projection operator formalism was employed to vibrationally resolve the fixed-nuclei phase shifts obtained with the Schwinger multichannel method. The near threshold behavior of H(2) and C(2)H(2) significantly differ in the sense that no low lying singularity (either virtual or bound state) was found for the former, while a e(+)-acetylene virtual state was found at the equilibrium geometry (this virtual state becomes a bound state upon stretching the molecule). For C(2)H(2), we also performed model calculations comparing excitation cross-sections arising from virtual (-i kappa(0)) and bound (+i kappa(0)) states symmetrically located around the origin of the complex momentum plane (i.e. having the same kappa(0)). The virtual state is seen to significantly couple to vibrations, and similar cross-sections were obtained for shallow bound and virtual states. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental evidence and model explanation for cell population characteristics modification when applying sequential photodynamic therapy

We present experimental evidence of the existence of cell variability in terms of threshold light dose for Hep G2 (liver cancer cells) cultured. Using a theoretical model to describe the effects caused by successive photodynamic therapy (PDT) sessions, and based on the consequences of a partial response we introduce the threshold dose distribution concept within a tumor. The experimental model consists in a stack of flasks, and simulates subsequent layers of a tissue exposed to PDT application. The result indicates that cells from the same culture could respond in different ways to similar PDT induced-damages. Moreover, the consequence is a partial killing of the cells submitted to PDT, and the death fraction decreased at each in vitro PDT session. To demonstrate the occurrence of cell population modification as a response to PDT, we constructed a simple theoretical model and assumed that the threshold dose distribution for a cell population of a tumor is represented by a modified Gaussian distribution.

Culture-area relation in Axelrod`s model for culture dissemination

Axelrod`s model for culture dissemination offers a nontrivial answer to the question of why there is cultural diversity given that people`s beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other`s as they interact repeatedly. The answer depends on the two control parameters of the model, namely, the number F of cultural features that characterize each agent, and the number q of traits that each feature can take on, as well as on the size A of the territory or, equivalently, on the number of interacting agents. Here, we investigate the dependence of the number C of distinct coexisting cultures on the area A in Axelrod`s model, the culture-area relationship, through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We find a non-monotonous culture-area relation, for which the number of cultures decreases when the area grows beyond a certain size, provided that q is smaller than a threshold value q (c) = q (c) (F) and F a parts per thousand yen 3. In the limit of infinite area, this threshold value signals the onset of a discontinuous transition between a globalized regime marked by a uniform culture (C = 1), and a completely polarized regime where all C = q (F) possible cultures coexist. Otherwise, the culture-area relation exhibits the typical behavior of the species-area relation, i.e., a monotonically increasing curve the slope of which is steep at first and steadily levels off at some maximum diversity value.

Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation

The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.

Hidden sector effects on double Higgs production near threshold at the LHC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The reaction (p)over-barp -> (Lambda)over-bar(c)(-)Lambda(+)(c) close to threshold

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Carprofen and buprenorphine prevent hyperalgesia in a model of inflammatory pain in cats

A model of nociceptive threshold determination was developed for evaluation of NSAID analgesia in cats. In a crossover study, eight cats received carprofen (4 mg/kg), buprenorphine (0.01 mg/kg) or saline (0.3 ml) subcutaneously before intradermal kaolin injection on the antebrachium to induce mild inflammation. Pressure thresholds were measured at the injected site using blunt-ended pins advanced by manual inflation of a bladder within a bracelet. Bladder pressure was recorded as threshold (PT) at the behavioural end point. Baseline PT were recorded before kaolin injection (time 0). PT was measured at 2-10 h intervals for 52 h. PT below the lower 95% confidence interval (CI) of baseline values indicated hyperalgesia. After saline, hyperalgesia was detected from 2-6 h, 22-26 h, and at 30 and 36 h. After carprofen, PT remained within the 95% CI. After buprenorphine, PT remained within the 95% CI except at 2 h. Carprofen and to some extent buprenorphine, prevented inflammatory hyperalgesia. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy localization in the Peyrard-Bishop DNA model

We study energy localization on the oscillator chain proposed by Peyrard and Bishop to model DNA. We search numerically for conditions with initial energy in a small subgroup of consecutive oscillators of a finite chain and such that the oscillation amplitude is small outside this subgroup on a long time scale. We use a localization criterion based on the information entropy and verify numerically that such localized excitations exist when the nonlinear dynamics of the subgroup oscillates with a frequency inside the reactive band of the linear chain. We predict a mimium value for the Morse parameter (mu>2.25) (the only parameter of our normalized model), in agreement with the numerical calculations (an estimate for the biological value is mu=6.3). For supercritical masses, we use canonical perturbation theory to expand the frequencies of the subgroup and we calculate an energy threshold in agreement with the numerical calculations.

Ghost poles in the nucleon propagator in the linear sigma model approach and its role in pi N low-energy theorems

Complex mass poles, or ghost poles, are present in the Hartree-Fock solution of the Schwinger-Dyson equation for the nucleon propagator in renormalizable models with Yukawa-type meson-nucleon couplings, as shown many years ago by Brown, Puff and Wilets (BPW), These ghosts violate basic theorems of quantum field theory and their origin is related to the ultraviolet behavior of the model interactions, Recently, Krein et.al, proved that the ghosts disappear when vertex corrections are included in a self-consistent way, softening the interaction sufficiently in the ultraviolet region. In previous studies of pi N scattering using ''dressed'' nucleon propagator and bare vertices, did by Nutt and Wilets in the 70's (NW), it was found that if these poles are explicitly included, the value of the isospin-even amplitude A((+)) is satisfied within 20% at threshold. The absence of a theoretical explanation for the ghosts and the lack of chiral symmetry in these previous studies led us to re-investigate the subject using the approach of the linear sigma-model and study the interplay of low-energy theorems for pi N scattering and ghost poles. For bare interaction vertices we find that ghosts are present in this model as well and that the A((+)) value is badly described, As a first approach to remove these complex poles, we dress the vertices with phenomenological form factors and a reasonable agreement with experiment is achieved, In order to fix the two cutoff parameters, we use the A((+)) value for the chiral limit (m(pi) --> 0) and the experimental value of the isoscalar scattering length, Finally, we test our model by calculating the phase shifts for the S waves and we find a good agreement at threshold. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Inflation and the variability of relative prices in the Caribbean: evidence from panel threshold models

Includes bibliography

DN interaction from the Jülich meson-exchange model

The DN interaction is studied in close analogy to the meson-exchange K̄N potential of the Jülich group using SU(4) symmetry constraints. The model generates the Λ c(2595) resonance dynamically as a DN quasi-bound state. Results for DN scattering lengths and cross sections are presented and compared with predictions based on the Weinberg-Tomozawa term. Some features of the Λ c(2595) resonance are also discussed emphasizing the role of the near-by πΣ c threshold. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

Continuous measurement of cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO 2) for assessment of cardiovascular status during hemorrhagic shock in a swine model

Background: Early trauma care is dependent on subjective assessments and sporadic vital sign assessments. We hypothesized that near-infrared spectroscopy-measured cerebral oxygenation (regional oxygen saturation [rSO 2]) would provide a tool to detect cardiovascular compromise during active hemorrhage. We compared rSO 2 with invasively measured mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2), mean arterial pressure (MAP), cardiac output, heart rate, and calculated pulse pressure. Methods: Six propofol-anesthetized instrumented swine were subjected to a fixed-rate hemorrhage until cardiovascular collapse. rSO 2 was monitored with noninvasively measured cerebral oximetry; SvO2 was measured with a fiber optic pulmonary arterial catheter. As an assessment of the time responsiveness of each variable, we recorded minutes from start of the hemorrhage for each variable achieving a 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% change compared with baseline. Results: Mean time to cardiovascular collapse was 35 minutes ± 11 minutes (54 ± 17% total blood volume). Cerebral rSO 2 began a steady decline at an average MAP of 78 mm Hg ± 17 mm Hg, well above the expected autoregulatory threshold of cerebral blood flow. The 5%, 10%, and 15% decreases in rSO 2 during hemorrhage occurred at a similar times to SvO2, but rSO 2 lagged 6 minutes behind the equivalent percentage decreases in MAP. There was a higher correlation between rSO 2 versus MAP (R =0.72) than SvO2 versus MAP (R =0.55). Conclusions: Near-infrared spectroscopy- measured rSO 2 provided reproducible decreases during hemorrhage that were similar in time course to invasively measured cardiac output and SvO2 but delayed 5 to 9 minutes compared with MAP and pulse pressure. rSO 2 may provide an earlier warning of worsening hemorrhagic shock for prompt interventions in patients with trauma when continuous arterial BP measurements are unavailable. © 2012 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Peripheral kappa and delta opioid receptors are involved in the antinociceptive effect of crotalphine in a rat model of cancer pain

Cancer pain is an important clinical problem and may not respond satisfactorily to the current analgesic therapy. We have characterized a novel and potent analgesic peptide, crotalphine, from the venom of the South American rattlesnake Crotalus durissus terrificus. In the present work, the antinociceptive effect of crotalphine was evaluated in a rat model of cancer pain induced by intraplantar injection of Walker 256 carcinoma cells. Intraplantar injection of tumor cells caused the development of hyperalgesia and allodynia, detected on day 5 after tumor cell inoculation. Crotalphine (6 μg/kg), administered p.o., blocked both phenomena. The antinociceptive effect was detected 1 h after treatment and lasted for up to 48 h. Intraplantar injection of nor-binaltorphimine (50 g/paw), a selective antagonist of κ-opioid receptors, antagonized the antinociceptive effect of the peptide, whereas N,N-diallyl-Tyr-Aib-Phe-Leu (ICI 174,864, 10 μg/paw), a selective antagonist of δ-opioid receptors, partially reversed this effect. On the other hand, D-Phe-Cys-Tyr-D-Trp-Orn-Thr-Pen-Thr amide (CTOP, 20 g/paw), an antagonist of μ-opioid receptors, did not modify crotalphine-induced antinociception. These data indicate that crotalphine induces a potent and long lasting opioid-mediated antinociception in cancer pain. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.