Stochastic stability and the evolution of coordination in spatially structured populations.

Animals can often coordinate their actions to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. However, this can result in a social dilemma when uncertainty about the behavior of partners creates multiple fitness peaks. Strategies that minimize risk ("risk dominant") instead of maximizing reward ("payoff dominant") are favored in economic models when individuals learn behaviors that increase their payoffs. Specifically, such strategies are shown to be "stochastically stable" (a refinement of evolutionary stability). Here, we extend the notion of stochastic stability to biological models of continuous phenotypes at a mutation-selection-drift balance. This allows us to make a unique prediction for long-term evolution in games with multiple equilibria. We show how genetic relatedness due to limited dispersal and scaled to account for local competition can crucially affect the stochastically-stable outcome of coordination games. We find that positive relatedness (weak local competition) increases the chance the payoff dominant strategy is stochastically stable, even when it is not risk dominant. Conversely, negative relatedness (strong local competition) increases the chance that strategies evolve that are neither payoff nor risk dominant. Extending our results to large multiplayer coordination games we find that negative relatedness can create competition so extreme that the game effectively changes to a hawk-dove game and a stochastically stable polymorphism between the alternative strategies evolves. These results demonstrate the usefulness of stochastic stability in characterizing long-term evolution of continuous phenotypes: the outcomes of multiplayer games can be reduced to the generic equilibria of two-player games and the effect of spatial structure can be analyzed readily.

Is there an advantage to be gained from adding digital image cytometry of brush cytology to a standard biopsy protocol in patients with Barrett's esophagus?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The current gold standard in Barrett's esophagus monitoring consists of four-quadrant biopsies every 1-2 cm in accordance with the Seattle protocol. Adding brush cytology processed by digital image cytometry (DICM) may further increase the detection of patients with Barrett's esophagus who are at risk of neoplasia. The aim of the present study was to assess the additional diagnostic value and accuracy of DICM when added to the standard histological analysis in a cross-sectional multicenter study of patients with Barrett's esophagus in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred sixty-four patients with Barrett's esophagus underwent 239 endoscopies with biopsy and brush cytology. DICM was carried out on 239 cytology specimens. Measures of the test accuracy of DICM (relative risk, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios) were obtained by dichotomizing the histopathology results (high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma vs. all others) and DICM results (aneuploidy/intermediate pattern vs. diploidy). RESULTS: DICM revealed diploidy in 83% of 239 endoscopies, an intermediate pattern in 8.8%, and aneuploidy in 8.4%. An intermediate DICM result carried a relative risk (RR) of 12 and aneuploidy a RR of 27 for high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. Adding DICM to the standard biopsy protocol, a pathological cytometry result (aneuploid or intermediate) was found in 25 of 239 endoscopies (11%; 18 patients) with low-risk histology (no high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma). During follow-up of 14 of these 18 patients, histological deterioration was seen in 3 (21%). CONCLUSION: DICM from brush cytology may add important information to a standard biopsy protocol by identifying a subgroup of BE-patients with high-risk cellular abnormalities.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Les machines : leur histoire, leur description, leurs usages / par Émile With,...

Collection : Bibliothèque de l'enseignement technique

Les machines : leur histoire, leur description, leurs usages. Tome 2 / par Émile With,...

Collection : Bibliothèque de l'enseignement technique

Evaluation of adding a second marker to overcome Staphylococcus aureus spa typing homoplasies.

The utility of sequencing a second highly variable locus in addition to the spa gene (e.g., double-locus sequence typing [DLST]) was investigated to overcome limitations of a Staphylococcus aureus single-locus typing method. Although adding a second locus seemed to increase discriminatory power, it was not sufficient to definitively infer evolutionary relationships within a single multilocus sequence type (ST-5).

Nouveau manuel complet de typographie : historique, composition, règles orthographiques, imposition, travaux de ville, journaux, tableaux, algèbre, langues étrangères, musique et plainchant, machines, papier, stéréotypie, illustration / par Émile Leclerc,... ; préface de M. Paul Bluysen,...

Collection : Manuels Roret

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Stochastic dominance and absolute risk aversion

In this paper we proose the infimum of the Arrow-Pratt index of absoluterisk aversion as a measure of global risk aversion of a utility function.We then show that, for any given arbitrary pair of distributions, thereexists a threshold level of global risk aversion such that all increasingconcave utility functions with at least as much global risk aversion wouldrank the two distributions in the same way. Furthermore, this thresholdlevel is sharp in the sense that, for any lower level of global riskaversion, we can find two utility functions in this class yielding oppositepreference relations for the two distributions.

The achievable region approach to the optimal control of stochastic systems

The achievable region approach seeks solutions to stochastic optimisation problems by: (i) characterising the space of all possible performances(the achievable region) of the system of interest, and (ii) optimisingthe overall system-wide performance objective over this space. This isradically different from conventional formulations based on dynamicprogramming. The approach is explained with reference to a simpletwo-class queueing system. Powerful new methodologies due to the authorsand co-workers are deployed to analyse a general multiclass queueingsystem with parallel servers and then to develop an approach to optimalload distribution across a network of interconnected stations. Finally,the approach is used for the first time to analyse a class of intensitycontrol problems.