The doomsday vault: Seed banks, food security, and climate change

"It could easily provide the back-drop for a James Bond movie. Deep inside a mountain near the North Pole, down a fortified tunnel, and behind airlocked doors in a vault frozen to -18 degrees Celsius, scientists are squirreling away millions of seed samples. The samples constitute the very foundation of agriculture, the biological diversity needed so the world's major food crops can adapt to the next pest or disease, or to climate change. It's little wonder that the Svalbard Global Seed Vault has captured the public's imagination more than almost any agricultural topic in recent years. Popular press reports about the ‘Doomsday Vault,’ however, typically mask the complexity of the endeavor and, if anything, underestimate its practical utility." Cary Fowler This chapter considers the use of seed banks to address concerns about intellectual property, climate change and food security. It has a number of themes. First of all, it is interested in the use of ‘Big Science’ projects to address pressing global scientific concerns and Millennium Development Goals. Second, it highlights the increasing use of banks as a means of managing both property and intellectual property across a wide range of fields of agriculture and biotechnology. Third, it considers the linkage of intellectual property, access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. There are a variety of positions in this debate. Some see requirements in respect of access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as an inconvenient burden for science and commerce. Others defend access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as meaningful and productive. Those inclined to somewhat more conspiratorial views suggest that access to genetic resources and benefit sharing are a ruse to facilitate biopiracy. This chapter has a number of components. Section I focuses upon the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) network – often raised as a model for Climate Innovation Centres. Section II considers the Svalbard Global Seed Vault – the so-called Doomsday Vault. After a consideration of the World Summit on Food Security in 2009, it is concluded in this chapter that any future international agreement on climate change needs to address intellectual property, plant genetic resources and food security.

Is there a link between poverty and food security?

This paper addresses the gap in economic theory underlying the multidimensional concept of food security and observed data by deriving a composite food security index using the latent class model. The link between poverty and food security is then examined using the new food security index and the robustness of the link is compared with two unidimensional measures often used in the literature. Using Vietnam as a case study, it was found that a weak link exists for the rural but not for the urban composite food security index. The unidimensional measures on the other hand show a strong link in both the rural and urban regions. The results on the link are also different and mixed when two poverty types given by persistent and transient poverty are considered. These findings have important policy implications for a targeted approach to addressing food security.

Information accountability and health big data analytics: A consent-based model

With the ever increasing amount of eHealth data available from various eHealth systems and sources, Health Big Data Analytics promises enticing benefits such as enabling the discovery of new treatment options and improved decision making. However, concerns over the privacy of information have hindered the aggregation of this information. To address these concerns, we propose the use of Information Accountability protocols to provide patients with the ability to decide how and when their data can be shared and aggregated for use in big data research. In this paper, we discuss the issues surrounding Health Big Data Analytics and propose a consent-based model to address privacy concerns to aid in achieving the promised benefits of Big Data in eHealth.

On the nature of power flow equations in security analysis

The power system network is assumed to be in steady-state even during low frequency transients. However, depending on generator dynamics, and toad and control characteristics, the system model and the nature of power flow equations can vary The nature of power flow equations describing the system during a contingency is investigated in detail. It is shown that under some mild assumptions on load-voltage characteristics, the power flow equations can be decoupled in an exact manner. When the generator dynamics are considered, the solutions for the load voltages are exact if load nodes are not directly connected to each other

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

The university and the knowledge network: A new educational model for 21st century learning and employability

The higher education sector is under ongoing pressure to demonstrate quality and efficacy of educational provision, including graduate outcomes. Preparing students as far as possible for the world of professional work has become one of the central tasks of contemporary universities. This challenging task continues to receive significant attention by policy makers and scholars, in the broader contexts of widespread labour market uncertainty and massification of the higher education system (Tomlinson, 2012). In contrast to the previous era of the university, in which ongoing professional employment was virtually guaranteed to university-qualified individuals, contemporary graduates must now be proactive and flexible. They must adapt to a job market that may not accept them immediately, and has continually shifting requirements (Clarke, 2008). The saying goes that rather than seeking security in employment, graduates must now “seek security in employability”. However, as I will argue in this chapter, the current curricular and pedagogic approaches universities adopt, and indeed the core structural characteristics of university-based education, militate against the development of the capabilities that graduates require now and into the future.

Formal network behaviour analysis using model checking

In this research we modelled computer network devices to ensure their communication behaviours meet various network standards. By modelling devices as finite-state machines and examining their properties in a range of configurations, we discovered a flaw in a common network protocol and produced a technique to improve organisations' network security against data theft.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Actuarial report 2011: Social security schemes administered by Kela 2010-2060

Projections concerning the long-term outlook of the social security schemes administered by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela) are made regularly by the Institution’s Actuarial Section. The report at hand was compiled with the help of an aggregate model devised by the Actuarial Section. In the model, various universal factors influencing benefit trends are consolidated and the interactions between individual benefits are taken into account. The demographic forecasts underlying the report have also been made by the Actuarial Section. Estimates of income and administrative costs have been made in cooperation with the Financial Planning Section.

On the Decidability of Model-Checking Information Flow Properties

Current standard security practices do not provide substantial assurance about information flow security: the end-to-end behavior of a computing system. Noninterference is the basic semantical condition used to account for information flow security. In the literature, there are many definitions of noninterference: Non-inference, Separability and so on. Mantel presented a framework of Basic Security Predicates (BSPs) for characterizing the definitions of noninterference in the literature. Model-checking these BSPs for finite state systems was shown to be decidable in [8]. In this paper, we show that verifying these BSPs for the more expressive system model of pushdown systems is undecidable. We also give an example of a simple security property which is undecidable even for finite-state systems: the property is a weak form of non-inference called WNI, which is not expressible in Mantel’s BSP framework.

A trust model for routing in MANETs: a cognitive agents based approach

Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) is one of the successful wireless network paradigms which offers unrestricted mobility without depending on any underlying infrastructure. MANETs have become an exciting and im- portant technology in recent years because of the rapid proliferation of variety of wireless devices, and increased use of ad hoc networks in various applications. Like any other networks, MANETs are also prone to variety of attacks majorly in routing side, most of the proposed secured routing solutions based on cryptography and authentication methods have greater overhead, which results in latency problems and resource crunch problems, especially in energy side. The successful working of these mechanisms also depends on secured key management involving a trusted third authority, which is generally difficult to implement in MANET environ-ment due to volatile topology. Designing a secured routing algorithm for MANETs which incorporates the notion of trust without maintaining any trusted third entity is an interesting research problem in recent years. This paper propose a new trust model based on cognitive reasoning,which associates the notion of trust with all the member nodes of MANETs using a novel Behaviors-Observations- Beliefs(BOB) model. These trust values are used for detec- tion and prevention of malicious and dishonest nodes while routing the data. The proposed trust model works with the DTM-DSR protocol, which involves computation of direct trust between any two nodes using cognitive knowledge. We have taken care of trust fading over time, rewards, and penalties while computing the trustworthiness of a node and also route. A simulator is developed for testing the proposed algorithm, the results of experiments shows incorporation of cognitive reasoning for computation of trust in routing effectively detects intrusions in MANET environment, and generates more reliable routes for secured routing of data.

State estimation in power systems using linear model infinity norm-based trust region approach

State estimation is one of the most important functions in an energy control centre. An computationally efficient state estimator which is free from numerical instability/ill-conditioning is essential for security assessment of electric power grid. Whereas approaches to successfully overcome the numerical ill-conditioning issues have been proposed, an efficient algorithm for addressing the convergence issues in the presence of topological errors is yet to be evolved. Trust region (TR) methods have been successfully employed to overcome the divergence problem to certain extent. In this study, case studies are presented where the conventional algorithms including the existing TR methods would fail to converge. A linearised model-based TR method for successfully overcoming the convergence issues is proposed. On the computational front, unlike the existing TR methods for state estimation which employ quadratic models, the proposed linear model-based estimator is computationally efficient because the model minimiser can be computed in a single step. The model minimiser at each step is computed by minimising the linearised model in the presence of TR and measurement mismatch constraints. The infinity norm is used to define the geometry of the TR. Measurement mismatch constraints are employed to improve the accuracy. The proposed algorithm is compared with the quadratic model-based TR algorithm with case studies on the IEEE 30-bus system, 205-bus and 514-bus equivalent systems of part of Indian grid.

Model-checking bisimulation-based information flow properties for infinite state sstems

Bisimulation-based information flow properties were introduced by Focardi and Gorrieri [1] as a way of specifying security properties for transition system models. These properties were shown to be decidable for finite-state systems. In this paper, we study the problem of verifying these properties for some well-known classes of infinite state systems. We show that all the properties are undecidable for each of these classes of systems.

Self-organized public key management in MANETs with enhanced security and without certificate-chains

In the self-organized public key management approaches, public key verification is achieved through verification routes constituted by the transitive trust relationships among the network principals. Most of the existing approaches do not distinguish among different available verification routes. Moreover, to ensure stronger security, it is important to choose an appropriate metric to evaluate the strength of a route. Besides, all of the existing self-organized approaches use certificate-chains for achieving authentication, which are highly resource consuming. In this paper, we present a self-organized certificate-less on-demand public key management (CLPKM) protocol, which aims at providing the strongest verification routes for authentication purposes. It restricts the compromise probability for a verification route by restricting its length. Besides, we evaluate the strength of a verification route using its end-to-end trust value. The other important aspect of the protocol is that it uses a MAC function instead of RSA certificates to perform public key verifications. By doing this, the protocol saves considerable computation power, bandwidth and storage space. We have used an extended strand space model to analyze the correctness of the protocol. The analytical, simulation, and the testbed implementation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed protocol. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.