Posterior Simulation in the Generalized Linear Model with Semiparmetric Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models with semiparametric random effects are useful in a wide variety of Bayesian applications. When the random effects arise from a mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP) model, normal base measures and Gibbs sampling procedures based on the Pólya urn scheme are often used to simulate posterior draws. These algorithms are applicable in the conjugate case when (for a normal base measure) the likelihood is normal. In the non-conjugate case, the algorithms proposed by MacEachern and Müller (1998) and Neal (2000) are often applied to generate posterior samples. Some common problems associated with simulation algorithms for non-conjugate MDP models include convergence and mixing difficulties. This paper proposes an algorithm based on the Pólya urn scheme that extends the Gibbs sampling algorithms to non-conjugate models with normal base measures and exponential family likelihoods. The algorithm proceeds by making Laplace approximations to the likelihood function, thereby reducing the procedure to that of conjugate normal MDP models. To ensure the validity of the stationary distribution in the non-conjugate case, the proposals are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis-Hastings step. In the special case where the data are normally distributed, the algorithm is identical to the Gibbs sampler.

Better Memory and Neural Efficiency in Young Apolipoprotein E 4 Carriers

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) epsilon4 allele is the major genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease, but an APOE effect on memory performance and memory-related neurophysiology in young, healthy subjects is unknown. We found an association of APOE epsilon4 with better episodic memory compared with APOE epsilon2 and epsilon3 in 340 young, healthy persons. Neuroimaging was performed in a subset of 34 memory-matched individuals to study genetic effects on memory-related brain activity independently of differential performance. E4 carriers decreased brain activity over 3 learning runs, whereas epsilon2 and epsilon3 carriers increased activity. This smaller neural investment of epsilon4 carriers into learning reappeared during retrieval: epsilon4 carriers exhibited reduced retrieval-related activity with equal retrieval performance. APOE isoforms had no differential effects on cognitive measures other than memory, brain volumes, and brain activity related to working memory. We suggest that APOE epsilon4 is associated with good episodic memory and an economic use of memory-related neural resources in young, healthy humans.

Effects of Ownership on Hospital Efficiency in Germany

The objective of our study was to evaluate the efficiency of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals in Germany. First, bootstrapped data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency of a panel (n = 1,046) of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals between 2002 and 2006. This was followed by a second-step truncated linear regression model with bootstrapped DEA efficiency scores as dependent variable. The results show that public hospitals performed significantly better than their private for-profit and non-profit counterparts. In addition, we found a significant positive association between hospital size and efficiency, and that competitive pressure had a significant negative impact on hospital efficiency.

Single-dose piracetam effects on global complexity measures of human spontaneous multichannel EEG

Global complexity of 47-channel resting electroencephalogram (EEG) of healthy young volunteers was studied after intake of a single dose of a nootropic drug (piracetam, Nootropil® UCB Pharma) in 12 healthy volunteers. Four treatment levels were used: 2.4, 4.8, 9.6 g piracetam and placebo. Brain electric activity was assessed through Global Dimensional Complexity and Global Omega-Complexity as quantitative measures of the complexity of the trajectory of multichannel EEG in state space. After oral ingestion (1–1.5 h), both measures showed significant decreases from placebo to 2.4 g piracetam. In addition, Global Dimensional Complexity showed a significant return to placebo values at 9.6 g piracetam. The results indicate that a single dose of piracetam dose-dependently affects the spontaneous EEG in normal volunteers, showing effects at the lowest treatment level. The decreased EEG complexity is interpreted as increased cooperativity of brain functional processes.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Introduction Current empirical findings indicate that the efficiency of decision making (both for experts and near-experts) in simple situations is reduced under increased stress (Wilson, 2008). Explaining the phenomenon, the Attentional Control Theory (ACT, Eysenck et al., 2007) postulates an impairment of attentional processes resulting in a less efficient processing of visual information. From a practitioner’s perspective, it would be highly relevant to know whether this phenomenon can also be found in complex sport situations like in the game of football. Consequently, in the present study, decision making of football players was examined under regular vs. increased anxiety conditions. Methods 22 participants (11 experts and 11 near-experts) viewed 24 complex football situations (counterbalanced) in two anxiety conditions from the perspective of the last defender. They had to decide as fast and accurate as possible on the next action of the player in possession (options: shot on goal, dribble or pass to a designated team member) for equal numbers of trials in a near and far distance condition (based on the position of the player in possession). Anxiety was manipulated via a competitive environment, false feedback as well as ego threats. Decision time and accuracy, gaze behaviour (e.g., fixation duration on different locations) as well as state anxiety and mental effort were used as dependent variables and analysed with 2 (expertise) x 2 (distance) x 2 (anxiety) ANOVAs with repeated measures on the last two factors. Besides expertise differences, it was hypothesised that, based on ACT, increased anxiety reduces performance efficiency and impairs gaze behaviour. Results and Discussion Anxiety was manipulated successfully, indicated by higher ratings of state anxiety, F(1, 20) = 13.13, p < .01, ηp2 = .40. Besides expertise differences in decision making – experts responded faster, F(1, 20) = 11.32, p < .01, ηp2 = .36, and more accurate, F(1,20) = 23.93, p < .01, ηp2 = .55, than near-experts – decision time, F(1, 20) = 9.29, p < .01, ηp2 = .32, and mental effort, F(1, 20) = 7.33, p = .01, ηp2 = .27, increased for both groups in the high anxiety condition. This result confirms the ACT assumption that processing efficiency is reduced when being anxious. Replicating earlier findings, a significant expertise by distance interaction could be observed, F(1, 18) = 18.53, p < .01, ηp2 = .51), with experts fixating longer on the player in possession or the ball in the near distance and longer on other opponents, teammates and free space in the far distance condition. This shows that experts are able to adjust their gaze behaviour to affordances of displayed playing patterns. Additionally, a three way interaction was found, F(1, 18) = 7.37 p = .01, ηp2 = .29, revealing that experts utilised a reduced number of fixations in the far distance condition when being anxious indicating a reduced ability to pick up visual information. Since especially the visual search behaviour of experts was impaired, the ACT prediction that particularly top-down processes are affected by anxiety could be confirmed. Taken together, the results show that sports performance is negatively influenced by anxiety since longer response times, higher mental effort and inefficient visual search behaviour were observed. From a practitioner’s perspective, this finding might suggest preferring (implicit) perceptual cognitive training; however, this recommendation needs to be empirically supported in intervention studies. References: Eysenck, M. W., Derakshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7, 336-353. Wilson, M. (2008). From processing efficiency to attentional control: A mechanistic account of the anxiety-performance relationship. Int. Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 1, 184-201.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Based on the Attentional Control Theory (ACT; Eysenck et al., 2007), performance efficiency is decreased in high-anxiety situations because worrying thoughts compete for attentional resources. A repeated-measures design (high/low state anxiety and high/low perceptual task demands) was used to test ACT explanations. Complex football situations were displayed to expert and non-expert football players in a decision making task in a controlled laboratory setting. Ratings of state anxiety and pupil diameter measures were used to check anxiety manipulations. Dependent variables were verbal response time and accuracy, mental effort ratings and visual search behavior (e.g., visual search rate). Results confirmed that an anxiety increase, indicated by higher state-anxiety ratings and larger pupil diameters, reduced processing efficiency for both groups (higher response times and mental effort ratings). Moreover, high task demands reduced the ability to shift attention between different locations for the expert group in the high anxiety condition only. Since particularly experts, who were expected to use more top-down strategies to guide visual attention under high perceptual task demands, showed less attentional shifts in the high compared to the low anxiety condition, as predicted by ACT, anxiety seems to impair the shifting function by interrupting the balance between top-down and bottom-up processes.

Combined effect of soil bund with biological soil and water conservation measures in the northwestern Ethiopian highlands

Excessive runoff and soil erosion in the upper Blue Nile Basin poses a threat that has attracted the attention of the Ethiopian government because of the serious on-site effects in addition to downstream effects, such as the siltation of water harvesting structures and reservoirs. The objective of the study was to evaluate and recommend effective biophysical soil and water conservation measure(s) in the Debre Mewi watershed, about 30 km south of the Lake Tana. Six conservation measures were evaluated for their effects on runoff, soil loss, and forage yield using runoff plots. There was a significant difference between treatments for both runoff and soil loss. The four-year average annual soil loss in the different plots ranged from 26 to 71 t ha−1, and total runoff ranged from 180 to 302 mm, while annual rainfall varied between 854 mm in 2008 and 1247 mm in 2011. Soil bund combined with elephant grass had the lowest runoff and soil loss as compared to the other treatments, whereas the untreated control plot had the highest for both parameters. As an additional benefit, 2.8 and 0.7 t ha−1 year−1 of dried forage was obtained from elephant and local grasses, respectively. Furthermore, it was found that soil bund combined with Tephrosia increased soil organic matter by 13% compared to the control plot. Soil bund efficiency was significantly enhanced by combining them with biological measures and improved farmers’ perception of soil and water conservation measures.

The effects of anti-infective preventive measures on the occurrence of biologic implant complications and implant loss: a systematic review.

PURPOSE To systematically appraise whether anti-infective protocols are effective in preventing biologic implant complications and implant loss after a mean observation period ≥ 10 years after loading. MATERIALS AND METHODS An electronic search of Medline via PubMed and Embase via Ovid databases complemented by manual search was conducted up to October 31, 2012. Studies were included provided that they were published in English, German, French, or Italian, and conducted on ≥ 20 partially and fully edentulous patients with dental implants and regular (≥ 1×/year) supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) over a mean observation period ≥ 10 years. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Authors were contacted if required. Collected data were reported by descriptive methods. RESULTS The initial electronic search resulted in the identification of 994 titles from Medline via PubMed and 531 titles from Embase via Ovid databases, respectively. After elimination of duplicate titles and exclusion of 60 full-text articles, 143 articles were analyzed, resulting in 15 studies eligible for qualitative analysis. The implant survival rate ranged from 85.7% to 99.2% after a mean observation period ≥ 10 years. One comparative study assessed the effects of regular SPT on the occurrence of biologic complications and implant loss. Overall, regular diagnosis and implementation of anti-infective therapeutic protocols were effective in the management of biological complications and prevention of implant loss. Residual probing depths at the end of active periodontal therapy and development of reinfection during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) represented a significant risk for the onset of peri-implantitis and implant loss. Comparative studies indicated that implant survival and success rates were lower in periodontally compromised vs noncompromised patients. CONCLUSIONS In order to achieve high long-term survival and success rates of dental implants and their restorations, enrollment in regular SPT including anti-infective preventive measures should be implemented. Therapy of peri-implant mucositis should be considered as a preventive measure for the onset of peri-implantitis. Completion of active periodontal therapy should precede implant placement in periodontally compromised patients.

The Potential Effects of Social Interactions on Reproductive Efficiency of Stallions

The reproductive efficiency of stabled domestic stallions is often lower than what could be expected from observations in feral herds. In the wild, stallions typically live with mares in harem bands, with other stallions in bachelor bands, or occasionally in mixed-sex transitional bands. We, therefore, argue that permanent contact with mares may increase reproductive efficiency of stallions suffering from low libido and/or fertility. We also provide a summary of our present knowledge of natural conditions, management, and husbandry of domestic stallions, and of intra- and intersexual behavioral interactions in horses.

Effects of light and elevated pCO2 on the growth and photochemical efficiency of Acropora cervicornis

The effects of light and elevated pCO2 on the growth and photochemical efficiency of the critically endangered staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, were examined experimentally. Corals were subjected to high and low treatments of CO2 and light in a fully crossed design and monitored using 3D scanning and buoyant weight methodologies. Calcification rates, linear extension, as well as colony surface area and volume of A. cervicornis were highly dependent on light intensity. At pCO2 levels projected to occur by the end of the century from ocean acidification (OA), A. cervicornis exhibited depressed calcification, but no change in linear extension. Photochemical efficiency (F v /F m ) was higher at low light, but unaffected by CO2. Amelioration of OA-depressed calcification under high-light treatments was not observed, and we suggest that the high-light intensity necessary to reach saturation of photosynthesis and calcification in A. cervicornis may limit the effectiveness of this potentially protective mechanism in this species. High CO2 causes depressed skeletal density, but not linear extension, illustrating that the measurement of extension by itself is inadequate to detect CO2 impacts. The skeletal integrity of A. cervicornis will be impaired by OA, which may further reduce the resilience of the already diminished populations of this endangered species.

Agglomeration Economies in Japan: Technical Efficiency, Growth and Unemployment

This paper examines if the effects of agglomeration economies get manifested in technical efficiency and generate faster economic growth and higher (lower) levels of employment (unemployment). Using the prefecture level data for each of the two-digit groups of industries in Japan, the paper estimates region-specific technical efficiency index based on the stochastic frontier production function framework. The results of the factor analysis show that in most of the industry-groups (with a few exceptions) efficiency has a positive association with external scale variable(s). Though the relationship is not seen to be very strong, it would be equally erroneous to ignore the effect of agglomeration economies on efficiency. In the case of some of the light goods industries the agglomeration effect is relatively stronger. Further, economic growth varies positively with external scale variable(s) and unemployment rate tends to fall with respect to growth and concentration. All this tends to suggest that measures against industrial concentration may be counter-productive, particularly in the context of globalisation when countries are in dire need of raising productivity.

Using floating car data to analyse the effects of ITS measures and eco-driving

The road transportation sector is responsible for around 25% of total man-made CO2 emissions worldwide. Considerable efforts are therefore underway to reduce these emissions using several approaches, including improved vehicle technologies, traffic management and changing driving behaviour. Detailed traffic and emissions models are used extensively to assess the potential effects of these measures. However, if the input and calibration data are not sufficiently detailed there is an inherent risk that the results may be inaccurate. This article presents the use of Floating Car Data to derive useful speed and acceleration values in the process of traffic model calibration as a means of ensuring more accurate results when simulating the effects of particular measures. The data acquired includes instantaneous GPS coordinates to track and select the itineraries, and speed and engine performance extracted directly from the on-board diagnostics system. Once the data is processed, the variations in several calibration parameters can be analyzed by comparing the base case model with the measure application scenarios. Depending on the measure, the results show changes of up to 6.4% in maximum speed values, and reductions of nearly 15% in acceleration and braking levels, especially when eco-driving is applied.

The environmental and economic effects of innovative measures in urban parcels delivery

The main scope of this research is to identify and evaluate solutions to redesign the parcels delivery logistic process to achieve higher level of quality, lower operational costs, energy consumptions and air pollution. The study is starting from the analysis of the delivery process managed by a leader company operating in Rome. Main delivery flows, personnel and fleet management costs, quality performances and environmental impacts are investigated. The results of this analysis are benchmarked with other European situations. On the basis of the feedback of this analysis, a set of operational measures, potentially able tackle the objectives, are identified and assessed by means of a simulative approach. The assessment is based on environmental and economic indicators allowing the comparison between new and reference scenarios from the viewpoints of the key players: operator, customer and Society. Moreover, the operational measures are combined into alternative packages by looking for the sets capable to maximize the benefits for the key players. The methodology, tested on Rome case study, is general and flexible enough to be extended to parcels delivery problem in different urban contexts, as well as to similar urban distribution problems (e.g. press, food, security, school)