573 resultados para predictability
Resumo:
CoMFA and CoMSIA analysis were utilized in this investigation to define the important interacting regions in paclitaxel/tubulin binding site and to develop selective paclitaxel-like active compounds. The starting geometry of paclitaxel analogs was taken from the crystal structure of docetaxel. A total of 28 derivatives of paclitaxel were divided into two groups—a training set comprising of 19 compounds and a test set comprising of nine compounds. They were constructed and geometrically optimized using SYBYL v6.6. CoMFA studies provided a good predictability (q2 = 0.699, r2 = 0.991, PC = 6, S.E.E. = 0.343 and F = 185.910). They showed the steric and electrostatic properties as the major interacting forces whilst the lipophilic property contribution was a minor factor for recognition forces of the binding site. These results were in agreement with the experimental data of the binding activities of these compounds. Five fields in CoMSIA analysis (steric, electrostatic, hydrophobic, hydrogen-bond acceptor and donor properties) were considered contributors in the ligand–receptor interactions. The results obtained from the CoMSIA studies were: q2 = 0.535, r2 = 0.983, PC = 5, S.E.E. = 0.452 and F = 127.884. The data obtained from both CoMFA and CoMSIA studies were interpreted with respect to the paclitaxel/tubulin binding site. This intuitively suggested where the most significant anchoring points for binding affinity are located. This information could be used for the development of new compounds having paclitaxel-like activity with new chemical entities to overcome the existing pharmaceutical barriers and the economical problem associated with the synthesis of the paclitaxel analogs. These will boost the wide use of this useful class of compounds, i.e. in brain tumors as the most of the present active compounds have poor blood–brain barrier crossing ratios and also, various tubulin isotypes has shown resistance to taxanes and other antimitotic agents.
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Abstract: Over the years bioelectrical impedance assay (BIA) has gained popularity in the assessment of body composition. However, equations for the prediction of whole body composition use whole body BIA. This study attempts to evaluate the usefulness of segmental BIA in the assessment of whole body composition. A cross sectional descriptive study was conducted at the Professorial Paediatric Unit of Lady Ridgeway Hospital, Colombo, involving 259 (M/F:144/115) 5 to 15 year old healthy children. The height, weight, total and segmental BIA were measured and impedance indices and specific resistivity for the whole body and segments were calculated. Segmental BIA indices showed a significant association with whole body composition measures assessed by total body water (TBW) using the isotope dilution method (D2O). Impedance index was better related to TBW and fat free mass (FFM), while specific resistivity was better related to the fat mass of the body. Regression equations with different combinations of variables showed high predictability of whole body composition. Results of this study showed that segmental BIA can be used as an alternative approach to predict the whole body composition in Sri Lankan children.
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The construction industry is a knowledge-based industry where various actors with diverse expertise create unique information within different phases of a project. The industry has been criticized by researchers and practitioners as being unable to apply newly created knowledge effectively to innovate. The fragmented nature of the construction industry reduces the opportunity of project participants to learn from each other and absorb knowledge. Building Information Modelling (BIM), referring to digital representations of constructed facilities, is a promising technological advance that has been proposed to assist in the sharing of knowledge and creation of linkages between firms. Previous studies have mainly focused on the technical attributes of BIM and there is little evidence on its capability to enhance learning in construction firms. This conceptual paper identifies six ‘functional attributes’ of BIM that act as triggers to stimulate learning: (1) comprehensibility; (2) predictability; (3) accuracy; (4) transparency; (5) mutual understanding and; (6) integration.
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Interest in the area of collaborative Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in a Multi-Agent System is growing to compliment the strengths and weaknesses of the human-machine relationship. To achieve effective management of multiple heterogeneous UAVs, the status model of the agents must be communicated to each other. This paper presents the effects on operator Cognitive Workload (CW), Situation Awareness (SA), trust and performance by increasing the autonomy capability transparency through text-based communication of the UAVs to the human agents. The results revealed a reduction in CW, increase in SA, increase in the Competence, Predictability and Reliability dimensions of trust, and the operator performance.
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Japan is in the midst of massive law reform. Mired in ongoing recession since the early 1990s, Japan has been implementing a new regulatory blueprint to kickstart a sluggish economy through structural change. A key element to this reform process is a rethink of corporate governance and its stakeholder relations. With a patchwork of legislative initiatives in areas as diverse as corporate law, finance, labour relations, consumer protection, public administration and civil justice, this new model is beginning to take shape. But to what extent does this model represent a break from the past? Some commentators are breathlessly predicting the "Americanisation" of Japanese law. They see the triumph of Western-style capitalism - the "End of History", to borrow the words of Francis Fukuyama - with its emphasis on market-based, arms-length transactions. Others are more cautious, advancing the view that there new reforms are merely "creative twists" on what is a uniquely (although slowly evolving) strand of Japanese capitalism. This paper takes issue with both interpretations. It argues that the new reforms merely follow Japan's long tradition of 'adopting and adapting' foreign models to suit domestic purposes. They are neither the wholesale importation of "Anglo-Saxon" regulatory principles nor a thin veneer over a 'uniquely unique' form of Confucian cultural capitalism. Rather, they represent a specific and largely political solution (conservative reformism) to a current economic problem (recession). The larger themes of this paper are 'change' and 'continuity'. 'Change' suggests evolution to something identifiable; 'continuity' suggests adhering to an existing state of affairs. Although notionally opposites, 'change' and 'continuity' have something in common - they both suggest some form of predictability and coherence in regulatory reform. Our paper, by contrast, submits that Japanese corporate governance reform or, indeed, law reform more generally in Japan, is context-specific, multi-layered (with different dimensions not necessarily pulling all in the same direction for example, in relations with key outside suppliers), and therefore more random or 'chaotic'.
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We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.
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We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.
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There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.
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National anniversaries such as independence days demand precise coordination in order to make citizens change their routines to forego work and spend the day at rest or at festivities that provide social focus and spectacle. The complex social construction of national days is taken for granted and operates as a given in the news media, which are the main agents responsible for coordinating these planned disruptions of normal routines. This study examines the language used in the news to construct the rather unnatural idea of national days and to align people in observing them. The data for the study consist of news stories about the Fourth of July in the New York Times, sampled over 150 years and are supplemented by material from other sources and other countries. The study is multidimensional, applying concepts from pragmatics (speech acts, politeness, information structure), systemic functional linguistics (the interpersonal metafunction and the Appraisal framework) and cognitive linguistics (frames, metaphor) as well as journalism and communications to arrive at an interdisciplinary understanding of how resources for meaning are used by writers and readers of the news stories. The analysis shows that on national anniversaries, nations tend to be metaphorized as persons having birthdays, to whom politeness should be shown. The face of the nation is to be respected in the sense of identifying the nation's interests as one's own (positive face) and speaking of citizen responsibilities rather than rights (negative face). Resources are available for both positive and negative evaluations of events and participants and the newspaper deftly changes footings (Goffman 1981) to demonstrate the required politeness while also heteroglossically allowing for a certain amount of disattention and even protest - within limits, for state holidays are almost never construed as Bakhtinian festivals, as they tend to reaffirm the hierarchy rather than invert it. Celebrations are evaluated mainly for impressiveness, and for the essentially contested quality of appropriateness, which covers norms of predictability, size, audience response, aesthetics, and explicit reference to the past. Events may also be negatively evaluated as dull ("banal") or inauthentic ("hoopla"). Audiences are evaluated chiefly in terms of their enthusiasm, or production of appropriate displays for emotional response, for national days are supposed to be occasions of flooding-out of nationalistic feeling. By making these evaluations, the newspaper reinforces its powerful position as an independent critic, while at the same time playing an active role in the construction and reproduction of emotional order embodied in "the nation's birthday." As an occasion for mobilization and demonstrations of power, national days may be seen to stand to war in the relation of play to fighting (Bateson 1955). Evidence from the newspaper's coverage of recent conflicts is adduced to support this analysis. In the course of the investigation, methods are developed for analyzing large collections of newspaper content, particularly topical soft news and feature materials that have hitherto been considered less influential and worthy of study than so-called hard news. In his work on evaluation in newspaper stories, White (1998) proposed that the classic hard news story is focused on an event that threatens the social order, but news of holidays and celebrations in general does not fit this pattern, in fact its central event is a reproduction of the social order. Thus in the system of news values (Galtung and Ruge 1965), national holiday news draws on "ground" news values such as continuity and predictability rather than "figure" news values such as negativity and surprise. It is argued that this ground helps form a necessary space for hard news to be seen as important, similar to the way in which the information structure of language is seen to rely on the regular alternation of given and new information (Chafe 1994).
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Targeting between-species effects for improvement in synthetic hybrid populations derived from outcrossing parental tree species may be one way to increase the efficacy and predictability of hybrid breeding. We present a comparative analysis of the quantitative trait loci (QTL) which resolved between from within-species effects for adventitious rooting in two populations of hybrids between Pinus elliottii and P. caribaea, an outbred F1 (n=287) and an inbred-like F2 family (n=357). Most small to moderate effect QTL (each explaining 2-5% of phenotypic variation, PV) were congruent (3 out of 4 QTL in each family) and therefore considered within-species effects as they segregated in both families. A single large effect QTL (40% PV) was detected uniquely in the F2 family and assumed to be due to a between-species effect, resulting from a genetic locus with contrasting alleles in each parental species. Oligogenic as opposed to polygenic architecture was supported in both families (60% and 20% PV explained by 4 QTL in the F 2 and F1 respectively). The importance of adventitious rooting for adaptation to survive water-logged environments was thought in part to explain oligogenic architecture of what is believed to be a complex trait controlled by many hundreds of genes.
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This Article analyzes the recognition and enforcement of cross-border insolvency judgments from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia to determine whether the UNCITRAL Model Law’s goal of modified universalism is currently being practiced, and subjects the Model Law to analysis through the lens of international relations theories to elaborate a way forward. We posit that courts could use the express language of the Model Law text to confer recognition and enforcement of foreign insolvency judgments. The adoption of our proposal will reduce costs, maximize recovery for creditors, and ensure predictability for all parties.
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Genotypic variability in root system architecture has been associated with root angle of seedlings and water extraction patterns of mature plants in a range of crops. The potential inclusion of root angle as a selection criterion in a sorghum breeding program requires (1) availability of an efficient screening method, (2) presence of genotypic variation with high heritability, and (3) an association with water extraction pattern. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility for inclusion of nodal root angle as a selection criterion in sorghum breeding programs. A high-throughput phenotypic screen for nodal root angle in young sorghum plants has recently been developed and has been used successfully to identify significant variation in nodal root angle across a diverse range of inbred lines and a mapping population. In both cases, heritabilities for nodal root angle were high. No association between nodal root angle and plant size was detected. This implies that parental inbred lines could potentially be used to asses nodal root angle of their hybrids, although such predictability is compromised by significant interactions. To study effects of nodal root angle on water extraction patterns of mature plants, four inbred lines with contrasting nodal root angle at seedling stage were grown until at least anthesis in large rhizotrons. A consistent trend was observed that nodal root angle may affect the spatial distribution of root mass of mature plants and hence their ability to extract soil water, although genotypic differences were not significant. The potential implications of this for specific adaptation to drought stress are discussed. Results suggest that nodal root angle of young plants can be a useful selection criterion for specific drought adaptation, and could potentially be used in molecular breeding programs if QTLs for root angle can be identified. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.
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- Background Expressed emotion (EE) captures the affective quality of the relationship between family caregivers and their care recipients and is known to increase the risk of poor health outcomes for caregiving dyads. Little is known about expressed emotion in the context of caregiving for persons with dementia, especially in non-Western cultures. The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a psychometrically sound self-reporting measure for EE. Its use in the examination of caregiving for patients with dementia has not yet been explored. - Objectives This study was performed to examine the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the FAS (FAS-C) in Chinese caregivers of relatives with dementia, and its validity in predicting severe depressive symptoms among the caregivers. - Methods The FAS was translated into Chinese using Brislin's model. Two expert panels evaluated the semantic equivalence and content validity of this Chinese version (FAS-C), respectively. A total of 123 Chinese primary caregivers of relatives with dementia were recruited from three elderly community care centers in Hong Kong. The FAS-C was administered with the Chinese versions of the 5-item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI) and the Revised Memory and Behavioral Problem Checklist (RMBPC). - Results The FAS-C had excellent semantic equivalence with the original version and a content validity index of 0.92. Exploratory factor analysis identified a three-factor structure for the FAS-C (hostile acts, criticism and distancing). Cronbach's alpha of the FAS-C was 0.92. Pearson's correlation indicated that there were significant associations between a higher score on the FAS-C and greater caregiver burden (r = 0.66, p < 0.001), poorer mental health of the caregivers (r = −0.65, p < 0.001) and a higher level of dementia-related symptoms (frequency of symptoms: r = 0.45, p < 0.001; symptom disturbance: r = 0.51, p < 0.001), which serves to suggest its construct validity. For detecting severe depressive symptoms of the family caregivers, the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) curve had an area under curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.69–0.87, p < 0.0001). The optimal cut-off score was >47 with a sensitivity of 0.720 (95% CI = 0.506–0.879) and specificity of 0.742 (95% CI = 0.643–0.826). - Conclusions The FAS-C is a reliable and valid measure to assess the affective quality of the relationship between Chinese caregivers and their relatives with dementia. It also has acceptable predictability in identifying family caregivers with severe depressive symptoms.
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The cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2) is one of the major metabolizing enzymes. The muscle relaxant tizanidine is a selective substrate of CYP1A2, and the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) rofecoxib was thought to modestly in-hibit it. Cases suggesting an interaction between tizanidine and rofecoxib had been reported, but the mechanism was unknown. Also other NSAIDs are often used in combination with muscle relaxants. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of rofecoxib, several other NSAIDs and female sex steroids on CYP1A2 ac-tivity in vitro and in vivo, and to evaluate the predictability of in vivo inhibition based on in vitro data. In vitro, the effect of several NSAIDs, female sex steroids and model inhibitors on CYP1A2 activity was studied in human liver microsomes, without and with preincubation. In placebo controlled, cross-over studies healthy volunteers ingested a single dose of tizanidine after a pretreament with the inhibitor (rofecoxib, tolfenamic acid or celecoxib) or placebo. Plasma (and urine) concentrations of tizanidine and its metabolites were measured, and the pharmacodynamic effects were recorded. A caffeine test was also performed. In vitro, fluvoxamine, tolfenamic acid, mefenamic acid and rofecoxib potently in-hibited CYP1A2. Ethinylestradiol, celecoxib, desogestrel and zolmitriptan were moderate, and etodolac, ciprofloxacin, etoricoxib and gestodene were weak inhibi-tors of CYP1A2. At 100 µM, other tested NSAIDs and steroids inhibited CYP1A2 less than 35%. Rofecoxib was found to be a mechanism-based inhibitor of CYP1A2. In vivo, rofecoxib greatly increased the plasma concentrations (over ten-fold) and the pharmacodynamic effects of tizanidine. Also the metabolism of caf-feine was impaired by rofecoxib. Despite the relatively strong in vitro CYP1A2 inhibitory effects, tolfenamic acid and celecoxib did not have a significant effect on tizanidine and caffeine concentrations in humans. Competitive inhibition model and the free plasma concentration of the inhibitor predicted well the effect of fluvoxam-ine and the lack of effect of tolfenamic acid and celecoxib on tizanidine concentra-tions in humans, and mechanism-based inhibition model explained the effects of rofecoxib. However, the effects of ciprofloxacin and oral contraceptives were un-derestimated from the in vitro data. Rofecoxib is a potent mechanism-based inhibitor of CYP1A2 in vitro and in vivo. This mechanism may be involved in the adverse cardiovascular effects of rofecoxib. Tolfenamic acid and celecoxib seem to be safe in combination with tizanidine, but mefenamic acid might have some effect on tizanidine concentrations in vivo. Con-sidering the mechanism of inhibition, and using the free plasma concentration of the inhibitor, many but not all CYP1A2 interactions can be predicted from in vitro data.