Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Differences in the perception of interest representation: a comparision of Brasília and Brussels lobbying activity

The research topic of this paper is focused on the analysis of how trade associations perceive lobbying in Brussels and in Brasília. The analysis will be centered on business associations located in Brasília and Brussels as the two core centers of decision-making and as an attraction for the lobbying practice. The underlying principles behind the comparison between Brussels and Brasilia are two. Firstof all because the European Union and Brazil have maintained diplomatic relations since 1960. Through these relations they have built up close historical, cultural, economic and political ties. Their bilateral political relations culminated in 2007 with the establishment of a Strategic Partnership (EEAS website,n.d.). Over the years, Brazil has become a key interlocutor for the EU and it is the most important market for the EU in Latin America (European Commission, 2007). Taking into account the relations between EU and Brazil, this research could contribute to the reciprocal knowledge about the perception of lobby in the respective systems and the importance of the non-market strategy when conducting business. Second both EU and Brazilian systems have a multi-level governance structure: 28 Member States in the EU and 26 Member States in Brazil; in both systems there are three main institutions targeted by lobbying practice. The objective is to compare how differences in the institutional environments affect the perception and practice of lobbying, where institutions are defined as ‘‘regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning to social behavior’’ (Peng et al., 2009). Brussels, the self-proclaimed "Capital of Europe”, is the headquarters of the European Union and has one of the highest concentrations of political power in the world. Four of the seven Institutions of the European Union are based in Brussels: the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council and the European Commission (EU website, n.d.). As the power of the EU institutions has grown, Brussels has become a magnet for lobbyists, with the latest estimates ranging from between 15,000 and 30,000 professionals representing companies, industry sectors, farmers, civil society groups, unions etc. (Burson Marsteller, 2013). Brasília is the capital of Brazil and the seat of government of the Federal District and the three branches of the federal government of Brazilian legislative, executive and judiciary. The 4 city also hosts 124 foreign embassies. The presence of the formal representations of companies and trade associations in Brasília is very limited, but the governmental interests remain there and the professionals dealing with government affairs commute there. In the European Union, Brussels has established a Transparency Register that allows the interactions between the European institutions and citizen’s associations, NGOs, businesses, trade and professional organizations, trade unions and think tanks. The register provides citizens with a direct and single access to information about who is engaged in This process is important for the quality of democracy, and for its capacity to deliver adequate policies, matching activities aimed at influencing the EU decision-making process, which interests are being pursued and what level of resources are invested in these activities (Celgene, n.d). It offers a single code of conduct, binding all organizations and self-employed individuals who accept to “play by the rules” in full respect of ethical principles (EC website, n.d). A complaints and sanctions mechanism ensures the enforcement of the rules and addresses suspected breaches of the code. In Brazil, there is no specific legislation regulating lobbying. The National Congress is currently discussing dozens of bills that address regulation of lobbying and the action of interest groups (De Aragão, 2012), but none of them has been enacted for the moment. This work will focus on class lobbying (Oliveira, 2004), which refers to the performance of the federation of national labour or industrial unions, like CNI (National Industry Confederation) in Brazil and the European Banking Federation (EBF) in Brussels. Their performance aims to influence the Executive and Legislative branches in order to defend the interests of their affiliates. When representing unions and federations, class entities cover a wide range of different and, more often than not, conflicting interests. That is why they are limited to defending the consensual and majority interest of their affiliates (Oliveira, 2004). The basic assumption of this work is that institutions matter (Peng et al, 2009) and that the trade associations and their affiliates, when doing business, have to take into account the institutional and regulatory framework where they do business.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

Parameterized fast decoupled power flow methods for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems. Part I. Mathematical modeling

The conventional Newton and fast decoupled power flow (FDPF) methods have been considered inadequate to obtain the maximum loading point of power systems due to ill-conditioning problems at and near this critical point. It is well known that the PV and Q-theta decoupling assumptions of the fast decoupled power flow formulation no longer hold in the vicinity of the critical point. Moreover, the Jacobian matrix of the Newton method becomes singular at this point. However, the maximum loading point can be efficiently computed through parameterization techniques of continuation methods. In this paper it is shown that by using either theta or V as a parameter, the new fast decoupled power flow versions (XB and BX) become adequate for the computation of the maximum loading point only with a few small modifications. The possible use of reactive power injection in a selected PV bus (Q(PV)) as continuation parameter (mu) for the computation of the maximum loading point is also shown. A trivial secant predictor, the modified zero-order polynomial which uses the current solution and a fixed increment in the parameter (V, theta, or mu) as an estimate for the next solution, is used in predictor step. These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57 and 118 buses) are presented and discussed in the companion paper. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged. In addition, it is shown that parameters can be switched during the tracing process in order to efficiently determine all the PV curve points with few iterations. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameterized fast decoupled power flow methods for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems. Part II. Performance evaluation

The parameterized fast decoupled power flow (PFDPF), versions XB and BX, using either theta or V as a parameter have been proposed by the authors in Part I of this paper. The use of reactive power injection of a selected PVbus (Q(PV)) as the continuation parameter for the computation of the maximum loading point (MLP) was also investigated. In this paper, the proposed versions obtained only with small modifications of the conventional one are used for the computation of the MLP of IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57 and 118 buses). These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained with the new approaches are presented and discussed. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional FDPF method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged. In addition, it is shown that these versions can be switched during the tracing process in order to efficiently determine all the PV curve points with few iterations. A trivial secant predictor, the modified zero-order polynomial, which uses the current solution and a fixed increment in the parameter (V, theta, or mu) as an estimate for the next solution, is used for the predictor step. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiscale Fractal Descriptors and Polynomial Classifier for Partial Pixels Identification in Regions of Interest of Mammographic Images

Computer systems are used to support breast cancer diagnosis, with decisions taken from measurements carried out in regions of interest (ROIs). We show that support decisions obtained from square or rectangular ROIs can to include background regions with different behavior of healthy or diseased tissues. In this study, the background regions were identified as Partial Pixels (PP), obtained with a multilevel method of segmentation based on maximum entropy. The behaviors of healthy, diseased and partial tissues were quantified by fractal dimension and multiscale lacunarity, calculated through signatures of textures. The separability of groups was achieved using a polynomial classifier. The polynomials have powerful approximation properties as classifiers to treat characteristics linearly separable or not. This proposed method allowed quantifying the ROIs investigated and demonstrated that different behaviors are obtained, with distinctions of 90% for images obtained in the Cranio-caudal (CC) and Mediolateral Oblique (MLO) views.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Strangeness data with light projectiles from a hydrodynamical point of view

The usual particle emission scenario used in hydrodynamics presupposes that particles instantaneously stop interacting (freeze-out) once they reach some three-dimensional surface. Another formalism has recently been developed where particle emission occurs continuously during the whole expansion of thermalized matter. Here we compare both mechanisms in a simplified hydrodynamical framework and show that they lead to a drastically different interpretation of data.

Strangeness data with heavy projectiles from a hydrodynamical point of view

We compare the results obtained by using the continuous emission model with data from Ph-Ph collisions. We determine the initial conditions necessary to reproduce the strange particle ratios (experiment WA97) and with the obtained results, we study the dependence on particle mass of the inverse slope parameter T. Some particle spectra are also shown.

Error function approximations of interest in electrochemistry.

The error function is present in several equations describing eletrode processes. But, only approximations of this function are used. In this work, these and other approximations are studied and evaluated according to precision.

Initial Development of Bovine Placentation (Bos indicus) from the Point of View of the Allantois and Amnion

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solid mass falling into the reservoirs shallow water equations validity from the engineering point of view

Water waves generated by a solid mass is a complex phenomenon discussed in this paper by numerical and experimental approaches. A model based on shallow water equations with shocks (Saint Venant) has developed. It can reproduce the amplitude and the energy of the wave quite well, but because it consistently generates a hydraulic jump, it is able to reproduce the profile, in the case of high relative thickness of slide, but in the case of small relative thickness it is unable to reproduce the amplitude of the wave. As the momentum conservation is not verified during the phase of wave creation, a second technique based on discharge transfer coefficient α, is introduced at the zone of impact. Numerical tests have been performed and validated this technique from the experimental results of the wave's height obtained in a flume.

Elevation of boiling point of coffee extract

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)