Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem. The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning, and; 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.

The challenge of integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk management : lessons from bushfire and flood inquiries in an Australian context

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency, duration and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job: Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT. It should be noted from the outset that the purpose of this research project is not to criticise the actions of emergency service workers and volunteers who do an incredible job under extreme circumstances, often risking their own lives in the process. The aim is simply to offer emergency management agencies the opportunity to step back and rethink their overall approach to the challenge they face in the light of the impacts of climate change.

The development of a kinematic model to quantify in-shoe foot motion

A multi-segment foot model was used to develop an accurate and reliable kinematic model to describe in-shoe foot kinematics during gait.

Buzz in motion pictures : what is buzz and how can marketing create it?

In the movie industry, the extraordinarily successful theatrical performance of certain films is largely attributed to buzz. Despite longstanding commentary about the role of buzz in successful movie marketing and the belief that it accelerates new product diffusion, limited scholarly evidence exists to support these assertions. This is primarily due to the lack of conceptual distinction of buzz from word-of-mouth, which is often used as the main basis for conceptualising buzz. However, word-of-mouth does not fully explain the buzz surrounding films such as 'Gone With The Wind', 'The Dark Knight' and 'Avatar'. Informed by valuable insights from key experts who have launched some of the most successful movies in box office history, as well as a range of moviegoers, this thesis developed a deeper understanding of what buzz is and how it is created. This thesis concludes that buzz is not the same as word-of-mouth.

The molecular bases of training adaptation

Skeletal muscle is a malleable tissue capable of altering the type and amount of protein in response to disruptions to cellular homeostasis. The process of exercise-induced adaptation in skeletal muscle involves a multitude of signalling mechanisms initiating replication of specific DNA genetic sequences, enabling subsequent translation of the genetic message and ultimately generating a series of amino acids that form new proteins. The functional consequences of these adaptations are determined by training volume, intensity and frequency, and the half-life of the protein. Moreover, many features of the training adaptation are specific to the type of stimulus, such as the mode of exercise. Prolonged endurance training elicits a variety of metabolic and morphological changes, including mitochondrial biogenesis, fast-to-slow fibre-type transformation and substrate metabolism. In contrast, heavy resistance exercise stimulates synthesis of contractile proteins responsible for muscle hypertrophy and increases in maximal contractile force output. Concomitant with the vastly different functional outcomes induced by these diverse exercise modes, the genetic and molecular mechanisms of adaptation are distinct. With recent advances in technology, it is now possible to study the effects of various training interventions on a variety of signalling proteins and early-response genes in skeletal muscle. Although it cannot presently be claimed that such scientific endeavours have influenced the training practices of elite athletes, these new and exciting technologies have provided insight into how current training techniques result in specific muscular adaptations, and may ultimately provide clues for future and novel training methodologies. Greater knowledge of the mechanisms and interaction of exercise-induced adaptive pathways in skeletal muscle is important for our understanding of the aetiology of disease, maintenance of metabolic and functional capacity with aging, and training for athletic performance. This article highlights the effects of exercise on molecular and genetic mechanisms of training adaptation in skeletal muscle.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

The effect of organ motion of radiotherapy plans

Organ motion as a result of respiration is an important field of research for medical physics. Knowledge of magnitude and direction of this motion is necessary to allow for more accurate radiotherapy treatment planning. This will result in higher doses to the tumour whilst sparing healthy tissue. This project involved human trials, where the radiation therapy patient's kidneys were CT scanned under three different conditions; whilst free breathing (FB), breath-hold at normal tidal inspiration (BHIN), and breath-hold at normal tidal expiration (BHEX). The magnitude of motion was measured by recording the outline of the kidney from a Beam's Eye View (BEV). The centre of mass of this 2D shape was calculated for each set using "ImageJ" software and the magnitude of movement determined from the change in the centroid's coordinates between the BHIN and BHEX scans. The movement ranged from, for the left and right kidneys, 4-46mm and 2-44mm in the superior/inferior (axial) plane, 1-21mm and 2- 16mm in the anterior/posterior (coronal) plane, and 0-6mm and 0-8mm in the lateral/medial (sagittal) plane. From exhale to inhale, the kidneys tended to move inferiorly, anteriorly and laterally. A standard radiotherapy plan, designed to treat the para-aortics with opposed lateral fields was performed on the free breathing (planning) CT set. The field size and arrangement was set up using the same parameters for each subject. The prescription was to deliver 45 Gray in 25 fractions. This field arrangement and prescription was then copied over to the breath hold CT sets, and the dosimetric differences were compared using Dose Volume Histograms (DVH). The point of comparison for the three sets was recorded as the percentage volume of kidney receiving less than or equal to 10 Gray. The QUASAR respiratory motion phantom was used with the range of motion determined from the human study. The phantom was imaged, planned and treated with a linear accelerator with dose determined by film. The effect of the motion was measured by the change in the penumbra of the film and compared to the penumbra from the treatment planning system.

Public policy, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

Rethinking emergency management and climate adaptation policies

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job – Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT.

Made by motion, Series one

“Made by Motion” is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generating experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN - Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In this first series the visual investigation focused on manipulating the movement date at the instance of capture, capture been the recording of three-dimensional movement as ‘seen’ by the hardware and ‘understood’ through the calibration of software. By repositioning the capture hardware on the body we can effectively change how the same sequence of movements is ‘seen’ by the motion capture system thus generating a different visual result from effetely identical movement. The outcomes from the experiments clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of using motion capture hardware as a creative tool to manipulate the perception of the capture subject, in this case been a sequence of dance movements. The creative work exhibited is a cross-section of the experiments conducted in practice with the first animated work (Movement A - Control) using the motion capture hardware in its default ‘normal’ configuration. Following this is the lower body moved to the upper body (Lb-Ub), right arm moved onto the left arm (Ra-La), right leg moved onto the left leg (Rl-Ll) and finally the left leg moved onto a object that is then held in the left hand (Ll-Pf (Lh)).

Experimental arts practice incorporating motion capture

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. Made by Motion is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generate experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN – Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In my presentation I will be displaying and discussing a selected creative works from the project along with the process and considerations behind the work.

Effect of text type on near work-induced contrast adaptation in myopic and emmetropic young adults

Purpose Contrast adaptation has been speculated to be an error signal for emmetropization. Myopic children exhibit higher contrast adaptation than emmetropic children. This study aimed to determine whether contrast adaptation varies with the type of text viewed by emmetropic and myopic young adults. Methods Baseline contrast sensitivity was determined in 25 emmetropic and 25 spectacle-corrected myopic young adults for 0.5, 1.2, 2.7, 4.4, and 6.2 cycles per degree (cpd) horizontal sine wave gratings. The adults spent periods looking at a 6.2 cpd high-contrast horizontal grating and reading lines of English and Chinese text (these texts comprised 1.2 cpd row and 6 cpd stroke frequencies). The effects of these near tasks on contrast sensitivity were determined, with decreases in sensitivity indicating contrast adaptation. Results Contrast adaptation was affected by the near task (F2,672 = 43.0; P < 0.001). Adaptation was greater for the grating task (0.13 ± 0.17 log unit, averaged across all frequencies) than reading tasks, but there was no significant difference between the two reading tasks (English 0.05 ± 0.13 log unit versus Chinese 0.04 ± 0.13 log unit). The myopic group showed significantly greater adaptation (by 0.04, 0.04, and 0.05 log units for English, Chinese, and grating tasks, respectively) than the emmetropic group (F1,48 = 5.0; P = 0.03). Conclusions In young adults, reading Chinese text induced similar contrast adaptation as reading English text. Myopes exhibited greater contrast adaptation than emmetropes. Contrast adaptation, independent of text type, might be associated with myopia development.

Lattice-free descriptions of collective motion with crowding and adhesion

Cell-to-cell adhesion is an important aspect of malignant spreading that is often observed in images from the experimental cell biology literature. Since cell-to-cell adhesion plays an important role in controlling the movement of individual malignant cells, it is likely that cell-to-cell adhesion also influences the spatial spreading of populations of such cells. Therefore, it is important for us to develop biologically realistic simulation tools that can mimic the key features of such collective spreading processes to improve our understanding of how cell-to-cell adhesion influences the spreading of cell populations. Previous models of collective cell spreading with adhesion have used lattice-based random walk frameworks which may lead to unrealistic results, since the agents in the random walk simulations always move across an artificial underlying lattice structure. This is particularly problematic in high-density regions where it is clear that agents in the random walk align along the underlying lattice, whereas no such regular alignment is ever observed experimentally. To address these limitations, we present a lattice-free model of collective cell migration that explicitly incorporates crowding and adhesion. We derive a partial differential equation description of the discrete process and show that averaged simulation results compare very well with numerical solutions of the partial differential equation.

Cyclic mechanical strain guides capillary-like morphology in vitro

Introduction Stretching of tissue stimulates angiogenesis but increased motion at a fracture site hinders revascularisation. In vitro studies have indicated that mechanical stimuli promote angiogenic responses in endothelial cells, but can either inhibit or enhance responses when applied directly to angiogenesis assays. We anticipated that cyclic tension applied during endothelial network assembly would increase vascular structure formation up to a certain threshold. Methods Fibroblast/HUVEC co-cultures were subjected to cyclic equibiaxial strain (1 Hz; 6 h/day; 7 days) using the FlexerCell FX-4000T system and limiting rings for simultaneous application of multiple strain magnitudes (0–13%). Cells were labelled using anti-PECAM-1, and image analysis provided measures of endothelial network length and numbers of junctions. Results Cyclic stretching had no significant effect on the total length of endothelial networks (P > 0.2) but resulted in a strain-dependent decrease in branching and localised alignments of endothelial structures, which were in turn aligned with the supporting fibroblastic construct. Conclusion The organisation of endothelial networks under cyclic strain is dominated by structural adaptation to the supporting construct. It may be that, in fracture healing, the formation and integrity of the granulation tissue and callus is ultimately critical in revascularisation and its failure under severe strain conditions.