The Validation of a Two-Dimensional Transient Catalyst Model for Direct Injection Two-Stroke Applications

This paper describes the detailed validation of a computer model designed to simulate the transient light-off in a two-stroke oxidation catalyst. A plug flow reactor is employed to provide measurements of temperature and gas concentration at various radial and axial locations inside the catalyst. These measurements are recorded at discrete intervals during a transient light-off in which the inlet temperature is increased from ambient to 300oC at rates of up to 6oC/sec. The catalyst formulation used in the flow reactor, and its associated test procedures, are then simulated by the computer and a comparison made between experimental readings and model predictions. The design of the computer model to which this validation exercise relates is described in detail in a separate technical paper. The first section of the paper investigates the warm-up characteristics of the substrate and examines the validity of the heat transfer predictions between the wall and the gas in the absence of chemical reactions. The predictions from a typical single-component CO transient light-off test are discussed in the second section and are compared with experimental data. In particular the effect of the temperature ramp on the light-off curve and reaction zone development is examined. An analysis of the C3H6 conversion is given in the third section while the final section examines the accuracy of the light-off curves which are produced when both CO and C3H6 are present in the feed gas. The analysis shows that the heat and mass transfer calculations provided reliable predictions of the warm-up behaviour and post light-off gas concentration profiles. The self-inhibition and cross-inhibition terms in the global rate expressions were also found to be reasonably reliable although the surface reaction rates required calibration with experimental data.

Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

New radiocarbon calibration curves, IntCal04 and Marine04, have been constructed and internationally ratified to replace the terrestrial and marine components of IntCal98. The new calibration data sets extend an additional 2000 yr, from 0–26 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), and provide much higher resolution, greater precision, and more detailed structure than IntCal98. For the Marine04 curve, dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples, converted with a box diffusion model to marine mixed-layer ages, cover the period from 0–10.5 cal kyr BP. Beyond 10.5 cal kyr BP, high-resolution marine data become available from foraminifera in varved sediments and U/Th-dated corals. The marine records are corrected with site-specific 14C reservoir age information to provide a single global marine mixed-layer calibration from 10.5–26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed here. The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are presented in detail in a companion paper by Reimer et al. (this issue).

Calibration of assessment instruments – classification in mathematics at the Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano

Item Response Theory, IRT, is a valuable methodology for analyzing the quality of the instruments utilized in assessment of academic achievement. This article presents an implementation of the mentioned theory, particularly of the Rasch model, in order to calibrate items and the instrument used in the classification test for the Basic Mathematics subject at Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano. 509 responses chains of students, obtained in the june 2011 application, were analyzed with a set of 45 items, through eight case studies that are showing progressive steps of calibration. Criteria of validity of items and of whole instrument were defined and utilized, to select groups of responses chains and items that were finally used in the determination of parameters which then allowed the classification of assessed students by the test.

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the (super 14) C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0 - 50,000 years cal BP

The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the ¹⁴C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0-12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org.

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.

Selection and Treatment of Data for Radiocarbon Calibration: An Update to the International Calibration (IntCal) Criteria

High-quality data from appropriate archives are needed for the continuing improvement of radiocarbon calibration curves. We discuss here the basic assumptions behind 14C dating that necessitate calibration and the relative strengths and weaknesses of archives from which calibration data are obtained. We also highlight the procedures, problems and uncertainties involved in determining atmospheric and surface ocean 14C/12C in these archives, including a discussion of the various methods used to derive an independent absolute timescale and uncertainty. The types of data required for the current IntCal database and calibration curve model are tabulated with examples.

Asynchrony between the Greenland ice core chronology and the radiocarbon calibration curve? Evidence from Irish bogs

A significant cold event, deduced from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modeling of the event suggests that higher northern latitudes would have also experienced considerable decreases in precipitation and that Ireland would have witnessed one of the greatest depressions. However, no well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. Here we present independent evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveal synchronicity in germination across the region, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dating. The inner-rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8500-7500 cal. BP fall within a 25-yr window. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted as drier conditions in the region and provides the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. The dating uncertainties associated with the Irish pine record and the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) do not allow for any overlap between the two. Our results indicate that the discrepancy could be an artifact of dating inaccuracy, and support a similar claim by Lohne et al. (2013) for the Younger Dryas boundaries. If real, this asynchrony will most likely have affected interpretations of previous proxy alignments.

IntCal13 and Marine13 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves 0-50,000 Years Cal BP

The IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon calibration curves have been revised utilizing newly available and updated data sets from C measurements on tree rings, plant macrofossils, speleothems, corals, and foraminifera. The calibration curves were derived from the data using the random walk model (RWM) used to generate IntCal09 and Marine09, which has been revised to account for additional uncertainties and error structures. The new curves were ratified at the 21st International Radiocarbon conference in July 2012 and are available as Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org. The database can be accessed at http://intcal.qub.ac.uk/intcal13/.

A field and reactive transport model study of arsenic in a basaltic rock aquifer

The use of geothermal energy as a source for electricity and district heating has increased over recent decades. Dissolved As can be an important constituent of the geothermal fluids brought to the Earth's surface. Here the field application of laboratory measured adsorption coefficients of aqueous As species on basaltic glass surfaces is discussed. The mobility of As species in the basaltic aquifer in the Nesjavellir geothermal system, Iceland was modelled by the one-dimensional (1D) reactive transport model PHREEQC ver. 2, constrained by a long time series of field measurements with the chemical composition of geothermal effluent fluids, pH, Eh and, occasionally, Fe- and As-dissolved species measurements. Di-, tri- and tetrathioarsenic species (As(OH)S22-, AsS₃H^2-, AsS33- and As(SH)4-) were the dominant form of dissolved As in geothermal waters exiting the power plant (2.556μM total As) but converted to some extent to arsenite (H₃AsO₃) and arsenate HAsO42- oxyanions coinciding with rapid oxidation of S2- to S2O32- and finally to SO42- during surface runoff before feeding into a basaltic lava field with a total As concentration of 0.882μM following dilution with other surface waters. A continuous 25-a data set monitoring groundwater chemistry along a cross section of warm springs on the Lake Thingvallavatn shoreline allowed calibration of the 1D model. Furthermore, a series of ground water wells located in the basaltic lava field, provided access along the line of flow of the geothermal effluent waters towards the lake. The conservative ion Cl^- moved through the basaltic lava field (4100m) in less than10a but As was retarded considerably due to surface reactions and has entered a groundwater well 850m down the flow path as arsenate in accordance to the prediction of the 1D model. The 1D model predicted a complete breakthrough of arsenate in the year 2100. In a reduced system arsenite should be retained for about 1ka. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Validation of a 3D damage model for predicting the response of composite structures under crushing loads

A 3D intralaminar continuum damage mechanics based material model, combining damage mode interaction and material nonlinearity, was developed to predict the damage response of composite structures undergoing crush loading. This model captures the structural response without the need for calibration of experimentally determined material parameters. When used in the design of energy absorbing composite structures, it can reduce the dependence on physical testing. This paper validates this model against experimental data obtained from the literature and in-house testing. Results show that the model can predict the force response of the crushed composite structures with good accuracy. The simulated energy absorption in each test case was within 12% of the experimental value. Post-crush deformation and the damage morphologies, such as ply splitting, splaying and breakage, were also accurately reproduced. This study establishes the capability of this damage model for predicting the responses of composite structures under crushing loads.

Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal)

Ria deAveiro is a very complex shallow water coastal lagoon located on the northwest of Portugal. Important issues would be left unanswered without a good understanding of hydrodynamic and transport processes occurring in the lagoon. Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon are presented. The calibration of the hydrodynamic model was performed adjusting the bottom friction coefficient, through the comparison between measured and predicted time series of sea surface elevation for 22 stations. Harmonic analysis was performed in order to evaluate the model's accuracy. To validate the hydrodynamic model measured and predicted SSE values were compared for 11 stations, as well as main flow direction velocities for 10 stations. The salt and heat transport models were calibrated comparing measured and predicted time series of salinity and water temperature for 7 stations, and the RMS of the difference between the series was determined. These models were validated comparing the model results with an independent field data set. The hydrodynamic and the salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro were successfully calibrated and validated. They reproduce accurately the barotropic flows and can therefore adequately represent the salt and heat transport and the heat transfer processes occurring in Ria deAveiro.

Hydrodynamic model intercomparison for the patos lagoon (Brazil)

An intercomparison study is carried out between two models with different formulations and spatial discretizations in order to overcome the limitations posed by the standard calibration and validation procedures and improve confidence in the hydrodynamic results for the Patos Lagoon. Numerical simulations were carried out applying the TELEMAC and MOHID models, based on the same boundary conditions and identical calibration coefficients so differences in calculated flow conditions result from the formulations and parameterizations of each model. Results from both models are compared with measurements from three stations inside the lagoon. Preliminary results indicate that both models compare well with the measurements and with each other. These results increase the confidence on hydrodynamic results for the Patos Lagoon and provide the first step towards water quality studies for the area.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression