Perfil dos professores participantes da 2ª edição do curso de LIBRAS a distância: uma propsota de formação continuada no contexto educacional inclusivo

This research presents an analysis of the profile of participants in the second edition of the Extension Course “Libras by distance: a proposal for continuing education of teachers in inclusive educational settings”, funded by the Program for Continuing Education of Teachers in Special Education, the SEESP / MEC and the support of the UAB, whose goal was to promote a theoretical-practical-discourse on the importance of Libras in deaf education. The course was developed by the School of Philosophy and Science of UNESP / Marília, in distance mode. practicing teachers in public schools, linked to 19 Departments and / or Directors of Education in several regions of Brazil took the course. The information was collected from the questionnaire responses of the diagnostic evaluation performed in the pre-registration course. In general, the information was about place of residence, marital status, family constitution, educational training and professional experience in special education. We performed quantitative analysis and descriptive statistics on the data. The information presented refers to a summary of results for the total sample investigated. With the release of the profile of participants we expect to contribute towards the organization of new extension courses in the area of deafness, in distance mode, aimed at the in-service training of teachers with a view to Inclusive Education.

Caracterização in vitro de técnica biomagnética empregando magnetômetros 3D para avaliar tempo de trânsito esofagiano

The biomagnetic techniques use different magnetic field detectors to measure parameters of the human physiology. Those techniques present the advantage of being noninvasive and radiation free. Among them we can show up the Superconducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID), the Current Alternate Biosusceptometry (ACB) and, more recently, the employment of anisotropic magnetoresistive sensors. Those magnetic sensors have a low cost and good sensitivity to measure different physiological parameters using magnetic markers. The biomagnetic techniques have being used successfully through study on the characteristics of the gastrointestinal tract. Recent research, the magnetoresistors were used to evaluate the transit time and localization of magnetic sources in different parts of the gastrointestinal tract. The objective of this work is the characterization, with in vitro tests, of a biomagnetic instrumentation using two 3-axis magnetoresistors arranged in a gradiometric coplanar setup to evaluate esophageal transit time, analyze and compare the results of experimental signals and the magnetic theory, as well as evaluate the instrumentation gain with use of tri-axial sensor front to the mono-axial sensor. The instrumentation is composed by two three-axis sensing magnetometers, precision power supply and amplifier electronic circuits. The sensors fixed in a coplanar setup were separate by distance of 18 cm. The sensitivity tests had been carried through using a cylindrical magnet (ø = 4 mm and h = 4 mm) of neodymium-iron-boron (grid 35). The tests were done moving the permanent magnet on the sensors parallel axis, simulating the food transit in... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Produtividade da forragem de milho e Capim-marandu integrados em sistema agrossilvipastoril com eucalipto

Pós-graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Animal - FEIS

A educação a distância e a formação continuada de professores de matemática: contribuições de um contexto formativo para a base de conhecimento docente

Pós-graduação em Educação - FCT

Diagnóstico de conflitos em áreas de preservação permanente na bacia do Rio Capivara - Botucatu (SP)

The permanent preservation areas (PPA) established by Brazilian law are there to protect the natural environment. With the expansion of space occupied by man and development of economic activities in these areas were engaged in conflicts characterized PPA, where the use is other than the natural vegetation. According to these paradigms work aims to raise these conflict areas in the River Basin Capivara, Botucatu (SP) with the help of GIS Ilwis 3.4, topographic maps of IBGE and satellite images CBERS 2B. The map was generated from PPA in the GIS by distance calculation in relation to drainage, springs and break line on Cuesta de Botucatu. The classes of land use and natural vegetation were determined by interpretation of satellite images and field visits to check their veracity. With the cutting of the map of land use and natural vegetation in relation to PPA unit it was determined that the total 44,63% PPA is in conflict occupied by pasture, forest plantation, orange, annual crops, farms and irrigated rice project in lowland. This diagnostic characterizes the degradation of the environment and highlights the need to harmonize the economic and urban development with the preservation of the environment to ensure sustainability of the region.

Genome-Wide Analysis in Brazilian Xavante Indians Reveals Low Degree of Admixture

Characterization of population genetic variation and structure can be used as tools for research in human genetics and population isolates are of great interest. The aim of the present study was to characterize the genetic structure of Xavante Indians and compare it with other populations. The Xavante, an indigenous population living in Brazilian Central Plateau, is one of the largest native groups in Brazil. A subset of 53 unrelated subjects was selected from the initial sample of 300 Xavante Indians. Using 86,197 markers, Xavante were compared with all populations of HapMap Phase III and HGDP-CEPH projects and with a Southeast Brazilian population sample to establish its population structure. Principal Components Analysis showed that the Xavante Indians are concentrated in the Amerindian axis near other populations of known Amerindian ancestry such as Karitiana, Pima, Surui and Maya and a low degree of genetic admixture was observed. This is consistent with the historical records of bottlenecks experience and cultural isolation. By calculating pair-wise F-st statistics we characterized the genetic differentiation between Xavante Indians and representative populations of the HapMap and from HGDP-CEPH project. We found that the genetic differentiation between Xavante Indians and populations of Ameridian, Asian, European, and African ancestry increased progressively. Our results indicate that the Xavante is a population that remained genetically isolated over the past decades and can offer advantages for genome-wide mapping studies of inherited disorders.

Predator-prey interactions: jaguar predation on caiman in a floodplain forest

Advances in the understanding of ecological factors determining predatorprey interactions have provided a strong theoretical background on diet preferences of predators. We examined patterns of jaguar predation on caiman in southern Pantanal, Brazil. We investigated factors affecting predation rates and vulnerability of caiman to predation by jaguars. We recorded 114 caiman mortality incidents. Predation accounted for 62.3% (n = 71) of all caiman found dead, while other causes of mortality (nonpredation) accounted for 37.7% (n = 43). We found that jaguars prey on a broad size range of caiman body and caiman predation was influenced by distance to forests. During dry seasons, 70% (n = 49) of deaths were due to predation, while 30% (n = 21) were due to nonpredation causes. However, we found no significant relationship between annual and monthly killings of caiman and rainfall totals by year and month (r = 0.130, r = -0.316). The annual flooding regime may be a more important factor influencing prey selection by jaguars. Although neotropical crocodilians are relatively well studied, their interactions with jaguars have been mostly ignored and should be prioritized in future studies.

Molecular markers for the assessment of genetic variability in threatened plant species

La variabilità genetica è un importante strumento per lo studio e la conservazione della biodiversità in specie rare e minacciate di estinzione. Durante il mio dottorato mi sono quindi occupata di mettere a punto diverse metodologie molecolari al fine di valutare la diversità genetica in due specie rare della flora italiana che presentano problematiche diverse e specifiche. I marcatori arbitrari RAPD e i marcatori semi-arbitrari ISSR sono stati utilizzati per valutare la diversità genetica in Quercus crenata Lam. e per confermare l’ipotesi della sua origine ibridogena dalle due specie presunte parentali Quercus cerris L. e Quercus suber L., essendo Q. crenata presente in Italia settentrionale dove Q. suber è attualmente assente. I marcatori SSR o microsatelliti sono invece stati messi a punto su una specie a rischio di estinzione, endemica dell’Appennino Tosco-Emiliano, Primula apennina Widmer, applicando una metodologia specifica, basata sulla costruzione di una libreria genomica arricchita per l’isolamento di primer specifici. I marcatori RAPD e ISSR, utilizzati su un totale di 85 campioni, hanno mostrato alti livelli di diversità molecolare entro le specie studiate, eccetto per Q. suber le cui popolazioni rappresentano il margine orientale di distribuzione della specie, per questo più sottoposte ad impoverimento genetico. Oltre alla cluster analysis (UPGMA) e alla Analisi delle Componenti Principali effettuate per entrambi i marcatori, che confermano l’ipotesi dell’origine ibrida degli individui di Q. crenata diffusi in Italia Settentrionale, sono stati calcolati l’indice di ibridità basato sul maximum likelihood, che dimostra una introgressione asimmetrica di Q. crenata verso il parentale caratterizzato da superiorità demografica (Q. cerris) e il test di Mantel. Quest’ultimo ha permesso di confrontare i due marcatori RAPD e ISSR utilizzati ottenendo una bassa correlazione, a conferma del fatto che, amplificando tratti differenti del DNA nucleare, i dati non sono sovrapponibili, sebbene forniscano risultati analoghi. Per l’isolamento di loci microsatelliti ipervariabili ho utilizzato il protocolllo FIASCO (Fast isolation by AFLP of sequences containing repeats- Zane et al. 2002) che permette di costruire una libreria genomica arricchita partendo dal DNA estratto da P. apennina. Tale procedura ha previsto la digestione del DNA genomico per la produzione di una miscela di frammenti di DNA. Tramite ibridazione con opportune sonde sono stati isolati i frammenti contenenti i microsatelliti. Sequenziando i cloni ricombinanti, ho ottenuto sequenze contenenti repeats sulle cui regioni fiancheggianti sono stati costruiti 15 coppie di primer che potranno, in seguito, essere utilizzate per definire la quota di riproduzione clonale in P. apennina e per valutare la diversità genetica delle popolazioni che coprono l’areale di distribuzione della specie. Data la loro natura altamente variabile e la loro abbondanza nel DNA, gli SSR saranno, come i marcatori RAPD e gli ISSR, ugualmente validi per lo studio della variabilità genetica e per l’analisi di problematiche specifiche legate alle specie rare.

Verhaltensphysiologische Analyse der visuellen Wahrnehmung räumlicher Tiefe beim Goldfisch

Die Frage, wie es zur visuellen Wahrnehmung räumlicher Tiefe kommt, wenn das Retinabild nur zweidimensional ist, gehört zu den grundlegenden Proble-men der Hirnforschung. Für Tiere, die sich aktiv in ihrer Umgebung bewegen, herrscht ein großer Selektionsdruck Entfernungen und Größen richtig einzu-schätzen. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, herauszufinden, ob und wie gut Goldfische Objekte allein aufgrund des Abstandes unterscheiden können und woraus sie Information über den Abstand gewinnen. Hierzu wurde ein Ver-suchsaufbau mit homogen weißem Hintergrund entworfen, in dem die Akkom-modation als Entfernungsinformationen verwendet werden kann, weniger je-doch die Bewegungsparallaxe. Die Goldfische lernten durch operante Konditio-nierung einen Stimulus (schwarze Kreisscheibe) in einem bestimmten Abstand zu wählen, während ein anderer, gleichgroßer Stimulus so entfernt wie möglich präsentiert wurde. Der Abstand zwischen den Stimuli wurde dann verringert, bis die Goldfische keine sichere Wahl für den Dressurstimulus mehr treffen konnten. Die Unterscheidungsleistung der Goldfische wurde mit zunehmendem Abstand des Dressurstimulus immer geringer. Eine Wiederholung der Versuche mit unscharfen Stimu¬lus¬kon¬turen brachte keine Verschlechterung in der Unter-scheidung, was Akkommodation wenig wahrscheinlich macht. Um die Größen-konstanz beim Goldfisch zu testen, wurden die Durchmesser der unterschiedlich entfernten Stimuli so angepasst, dass sie für den Goldfisch die gleiche Retina-bildgröße hatten. Unter diesen Bedingungen waren die Goldfische nicht in der Lage verschieden entfernte Stimuli zu unterscheiden und somit Größenkonstanz zu leisten. Es fand demnach keine echte Entfernungsbestimmung oder Tiefen-wahrneh¬mung statt. Die Unterscheidung der verschieden entfernten Stimuli erfolgte allein durch deren Abbildungsgröße auf der Retina. Dass die Goldfische bei diesem Experiment nicht akkommodieren, wurde durch Infrarot-Photoretinoskopie gezeigt. Somit lässt sich Akkommodation für die Entfer-nungsbestimmung in diesen Versuchen ausschließen. Für diese Leistung und die Größenkonstanz ist vermutlich die Bewegungsparallaxe entscheidend.

Structural model of the CopA copper ATPase of Enterococcus hirae based on chemical cross-linking

The CopA copper ATPase of Enterococcus hirae belongs to the family of heavy metal pumping CPx-type ATPases and shares 43% sequence similarity with the human Menkes and Wilson copper ATPases. Due to a lack of suitable protein crystals, only partial three-dimensional structures have so far been obtained for this family of ion pumps. We present a structural model of CopA derived by combining topological information obtained by intramolecular cross-linking with molecular modeling. Purified CopA was cross-linked with different bivalent reagents, followed by tryptic digestion and identification of cross-linked peptides by mass spectrometry. The structural proximity of tryptic fragments provided information about the structural arrangement of the hydrophilic protein domains, which was integrated into a three-dimensional model of CopA. Comparative modeling of CopA was guided by the sequence similarity to the calcium ATPase of the sarcoplasmic reticulum, Serca1, for which detailed structures are available. In addition, known partial structures of CPx-ATPase homologous to CopA were used as modeling templates. A docking approach was used to predict the orientation of the heavy metal binding domain of CopA relative to the core structure, which was verified by distance constraints derived from cross-links. The overall structural model of CopA resembles the Serca1 structure, but reveals distinctive features of CPx-type ATPases. A prominent feature is the positioning of the heavy metal binding domain. It features an orientation of the Cu binding ligands which is appropriate for the interaction with Cu-loaded metallochaperones in solution. Moreover, a novel model of the architecture of the intramembranous Cu binding sites could be derived.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Introduction Current empirical findings indicate that the efficiency of decision making (both for experts and near-experts) in simple situations is reduced under increased stress (Wilson, 2008). Explaining the phenomenon, the Attentional Control Theory (ACT, Eysenck et al., 2007) postulates an impairment of attentional processes resulting in a less efficient processing of visual information. From a practitioner’s perspective, it would be highly relevant to know whether this phenomenon can also be found in complex sport situations like in the game of football. Consequently, in the present study, decision making of football players was examined under regular vs. increased anxiety conditions. Methods 22 participants (11 experts and 11 near-experts) viewed 24 complex football situations (counterbalanced) in two anxiety conditions from the perspective of the last defender. They had to decide as fast and accurate as possible on the next action of the player in possession (options: shot on goal, dribble or pass to a designated team member) for equal numbers of trials in a near and far distance condition (based on the position of the player in possession). Anxiety was manipulated via a competitive environment, false feedback as well as ego threats. Decision time and accuracy, gaze behaviour (e.g., fixation duration on different locations) as well as state anxiety and mental effort were used as dependent variables and analysed with 2 (expertise) x 2 (distance) x 2 (anxiety) ANOVAs with repeated measures on the last two factors. Besides expertise differences, it was hypothesised that, based on ACT, increased anxiety reduces performance efficiency and impairs gaze behaviour. Results and Discussion Anxiety was manipulated successfully, indicated by higher ratings of state anxiety, F(1, 20) = 13.13, p < .01, ηp2 = .40. Besides expertise differences in decision making – experts responded faster, F(1, 20) = 11.32, p < .01, ηp2 = .36, and more accurate, F(1,20) = 23.93, p < .01, ηp2 = .55, than near-experts – decision time, F(1, 20) = 9.29, p < .01, ηp2 = .32, and mental effort, F(1, 20) = 7.33, p = .01, ηp2 = .27, increased for both groups in the high anxiety condition. This result confirms the ACT assumption that processing efficiency is reduced when being anxious. Replicating earlier findings, a significant expertise by distance interaction could be observed, F(1, 18) = 18.53, p < .01, ηp2 = .51), with experts fixating longer on the player in possession or the ball in the near distance and longer on other opponents, teammates and free space in the far distance condition. This shows that experts are able to adjust their gaze behaviour to affordances of displayed playing patterns. Additionally, a three way interaction was found, F(1, 18) = 7.37 p = .01, ηp2 = .29, revealing that experts utilised a reduced number of fixations in the far distance condition when being anxious indicating a reduced ability to pick up visual information. Since especially the visual search behaviour of experts was impaired, the ACT prediction that particularly top-down processes are affected by anxiety could be confirmed. Taken together, the results show that sports performance is negatively influenced by anxiety since longer response times, higher mental effort and inefficient visual search behaviour were observed. From a practitioner’s perspective, this finding might suggest preferring (implicit) perceptual cognitive training; however, this recommendation needs to be empirically supported in intervention studies. References: Eysenck, M. W., Derakshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7, 336-353. Wilson, M. (2008). From processing efficiency to attentional control: A mechanistic account of the anxiety-performance relationship. Int. Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 1, 184-201.

Regional facial asymmetries in unilateral orofacial clefts

OBJECTIVES Assess facial asymmetry in subjects with unilateral cleft lip (UCL), unilateral cleft lip and alveolus (UCLA), and unilateral cleft lip, alveolus, and palate (UCLP), and to evaluate which area of the face is most asymmetrical. METHODS Standardized three-dimensional facial images of 58 patients (9 UCL, 21 UCLA, and 28 UCLP; age range: 8.6-12.3 years) and 121 controls (age range 9-12 years) were mirrored and distance maps were created. Absolute mean asymmetry values were calculated for the whole face, cheek, nose, lips, and chin. One-way analysis of variance, Kruskal-Wallis, and t-test were used to assess the differences between clefts and controls for the whole face and separate areas. RESULTS Clefts and controls differ significantly for the whole face as well as in all areas. Asymmetry is distributed differently over the face for all groups. In UCLA, the nose was significantly more asymmetric compared with chin and cheek (P = 0.038 and 0.024, respectively). For UCL, significant differences in asymmetry between nose and chin and chin and cheek were present (P = 0.038 and 0.046, respectively). In the control group, the chin was the most asymmetric area compared to lip and nose (P = 0.002 and P = 0.001, respectively) followed by the nose (P = 0.004). In UCLP, the nose, followed by the lips, was the most asymmetric area compared to chin, cheek (P < 0.001 and P = 0.016, respectively). LIMITATIONS Despite division into regional areas, the method may still exclude or underrate smaller local areas in the face, which are better visualized in a facial colour coded distance map than quantified by distance numbers. The UCL subsample is small. CONCLUSION Each type of cleft has its own distinct asymmetry pattern. Children with unilateral clefts show more facial asymmetry than children without clefts.

A dual-band priority assignment algorithm for dynamic QoS resource management

Future high-quality consumer electronics will contain a number of applications running in a highly dynamic environment, and their execution will need to be efficiently arbitrated by the underlying platform software. The multimedia applications that currently execute in such similar contexts face frequent run-time variations in their resource demands, originated by the greedy nature of the multimedia processing itself. Changes in resource demands are triggered by numerous reasons (e.g. a switch in the input media compression format). Such situations require real-time adaptation mechanisms to adjust the system operation to the new requirements, and this must be done seamlessly to satisfy the user experience. One solution for efficiently managing application execution is to apply quality of service resource management techniques, based on assigning and enforcing resource contracts to applications. Most resource management solutions provide temporal isolation by enforcing resource assignments and avoiding any resource overruns. However, this has a clear limitation over the cost-effective resource usage. This paper presents a simple priority assignment scheme based on uniform priority bands to allow that greedy multimedia tasks incur in safe overruns that increase resource usage and do not threaten the timely execution of non-overrunning tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed priority assignment scheme in combination with a resource accounting mechanism preserves timely multimedia execution and delivery, achieves a higher cost-effective processor usage, and guarantees the execution isolation of non-overrunning tasks.

Evaluación de las Consecuencias de la Nueva Regulación de la OMI sobre Combustibles Marinos

El 10 de octubre de 2008 la Organización Marítima Internacional (OMI) firmó una modificación al Anexo VI del convenio MARPOL 73/78, por la que estableció una reducción progresiva de las emisiones de óxidos de azufre (SOx) procedentes de los buques, una reducción adicional de las emisiones de óxidos de nitrógeno (NOx), así como límites en las emisiones de dióxido de Carbono (CO2) procedentes de los motores marinos y causantes de problemas medioambientales como la lluvia ácida y efecto invernadero. Centrándonos en los límites sobre las emisiones de azufre, a partir del 1 de enero de 2015 esta normativa obliga a todos los buques que naveguen por zonas controladas, llamadas Emission Control Area (ECA), a consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,1%. A partir del 1 de enero del año 2020, o bien del año 2025, si la OMI decide retrasar su inicio, los buques deberán consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,5%. De igual forma que antes, el contenido deberá ser rebajado al 0,1%S, si navegan por el interior de zonas ECA. Por su parte, la Unión Europea ha ido más allá que la OMI, adelantando al año 2020 la aplicación de los límites más estrictos de la ley MARPOL sobre las aguas de su zona económica exclusiva. Para ello, el 21 de noviembre de 2013 firmó la Directiva 2012 / 33 / EU como adenda a la Directiva de 1999. Tengamos presente que la finalidad de estas nuevas leyes es la mejora de la salud pública y el medioambiente, produciendo beneficios sociales, en forma de reducción de enfermedades, sobre todo de tipo respiratorio, a la vez que se reduce la lluvia ácida y sus nefastas consecuencias. La primera pregunta que surge es ¿cuál es el combustible actual de los buques y cuál será el que tengan que consumir para cumplir con esta Regulación? Pues bien, los grandes buques de navegación internacional consumen hoy en día fuel oil con un nivel de azufre de 3,5%. ¿Existen fueles con un nivel de azufre de 0,5%S? Como hemos concluido en el capítulo 4, para las empresas petroleras, la producción de fuel oil como combustible marino es tratada como un subproducto en su cesta de productos refinados por cada barril de Brent, ya que la demanda de fuel respecto a otros productos está bajando y además, el margen de beneficio que obtienen por la venta de otros productos petrolíferos es mayor que con el fuel. Así, podemos decir que las empresas petroleras no están interesadas en invertir en sus refinerías para producir estos fueles con menor contenido de azufre. Es más, en el caso de que alguna compañía decidiese invertir en producir un fuel de 0,5%S, su precio debería ser muy similar al del gasóleo para poder recuperar las inversiones empleadas. Por lo tanto, el único combustible que actualmente cumple con los nuevos niveles impuestos por la OMI es el gasóleo, con un precio que durante el año 2014 estuvo a una media de 307 USD/ton más alto que el actual fuel oil. Este mayor precio de compra de combustible impactará directamente sobre el coste del trasporte marítimo. La entrada en vigor de las anteriores normativas está suponiendo un reto para todo el sector marítimo. Ante esta realidad, se plantean diferentes alternativas con diferentes implicaciones técnicas, operativas y financieras. En la actualidad, son tres las alternativas con mayor aceptación en el sector. La primera alternativa consiste en “no hacer nada” y simplemente cambiar el tipo de combustible de los grandes buques de fuel oil a gasóleo. Las segunda alternativa es la instalación de un equipo scrubber, que permitiría continuar con el consumo de fuel oil, limpiando sus gases de combustión antes de salir a la atmósfera. Y, por último, la tercera alternativa consiste en el uso de Gas Natural Licuado (GNL) como combustible, con un precio inferior al del gasóleo. Sin embargo, aún existen importantes incertidumbres sobre la evolución futura de precios, operación y mantenimiento de las nuevas tecnologías, inversiones necesarias, disponibilidad de infraestructura portuaria e incluso el desarrollo futuro de la propia normativa internacional. Estas dudas hacen que ninguna de estas tres alternativas sea unánime en el sector. En esta tesis, tras exponer en el capítulo 3 la regulación aplicable al sector, hemos investigado sus consecuencias. Para ello, hemos examinado en el capítulo 4 si existen en la actualidad combustibles marinos que cumplan con los nuevos límites de azufre o en su defecto, cuál sería el precio de los nuevos combustibles. Partimos en el capítulo 5 de la hipótesis de que todos los buques cambian su consumo de fuel oil a gasóleo para cumplir con dicha normativa, calculamos el incremento de demanda de gasóleo que se produciría y analizamos las consecuencias que este hecho tendría sobre la producción de gasóleos en el Mediterráneo. Adicionalmente, calculamos el impacto económico que dicho incremento de coste producirá sobre sector exterior de España. Para ello, empleamos como base de datos el sistema de control de tráfico marítimo Authomatic Identification System (AIS) para luego analizar los datos de todos los buques que han hecho escala en algún puerto español, para así calcular el extra coste anual por el consumo de gasóleo que sufrirá el transporte marítimo para mover todas las importaciones y exportaciones de España. Por último, en el capítulo 6, examinamos y comparamos las otras dos alternativas al consumo de gasóleo -scrubbers y propulsión con GNL como combustible- y, finalmente, analizamos en el capítulo 7, la viabilidad de las inversiones en estas dos tecnologías para cumplir con la regulación. En el capítulo 5 explicamos los numerosos métodos que existen para calcular la demanda de combustible de un buque. La metodología seguida para su cálculo será del tipo bottom-up, que está basada en la agregación de la actividad y las características de cada tipo de buque. El resultado está basado en la potencia instalada de cada buque, porcentaje de carga del motor y su consumo específico. Para ello, analizamos el número de buques que navegan por el Mediterráneo a lo largo de un año mediante el sistema AIS, realizando “fotos” del tráfico marítimo en el Mediterráneo y reportando todos los buques en navegación en días aleatorios a lo largo de todo el año 2014. Por último, y con los datos anteriores, calculamos la demanda potencial de gasóleo en el Mediterráneo. Si no se hace nada y los buques comienzan a consumir gasóleo como combustible principal, en vez del actual fuel oil para cumplir con la regulación, la demanda de gasoil en el Mediterráneo aumentará en 12,12 MTA (Millones de Toneladas Anuales) a partir del año 2020. Esto supone alrededor de 3.720 millones de dólares anuales por el incremento del gasto de combustible tomando como referencia el precio medio de los combustibles marinos durante el año 2014. El anterior incremento de demanda en el Mediterráneo supondría el 43% del total de la demanda de gasóleos en España en el año 2013, incluyendo gasóleos de automoción, biodiesel y gasóleos marinos y el 3,2% del consumo europeo de destilados medios durante el año 2014. ¿Podrá la oferta del mercado europeo asumir este incremento de demanda de gasóleos? Europa siempre ha sido excedentaria en gasolina y deficitaria en destilados medios. En el año 2009, Europa tuvo que importar 4,8 MTA de Norte América y 22,1 MTA de Asia. Por lo que, este aumento de demanda sobre la ya limitada capacidad de refino de destilados medios en Europa incrementará las importaciones y producirá también aumentos en los precios, sobre todo del mercado del gasóleo. El sector sobre el que más impactará el incremento de demanda de gasóleo será el de los cruceros que navegan por el Mediterráneo, pues consumirán un 30,4% de la demanda de combustible de toda flota mundial de cruceros, lo que supone un aumento en su gasto de combustible de 386 millones de USD anuales. En el caso de los RoRos, consumirían un 23,6% de la demanda de la flota mundial de este tipo de buque, con un aumento anual de 171 millones de USD sobre su gasto de combustible anterior. El mayor incremento de coste lo sufrirán los portacontenedores, con 1.168 millones de USD anuales sobre su gasto actual. Sin embargo, su consumo en el Mediterráneo representa sólo el 5,3% del consumo mundial de combustible de este tipo de buques. Estos números plantean la incertidumbre de si semejante aumento de gasto en buques RoRo hará que el transporte marítimo de corta distancia en general pierda competitividad sobre otros medios de transporte alternativos en determinadas rutas. De manera que, parte del volumen de mercancías que actualmente transportan los buques se podría trasladar a la carretera, con los inconvenientes medioambientales y operativos, que esto produciría. En el caso particular de España, el extra coste por el consumo de gasóleo de todos los buques con escala en algún puerto español en el año 2013 se cifra en 1.717 millones de EUR anuales, según demostramos en la última parte del capítulo 5. Para realizar este cálculo hemos analizado con el sistema AIS a todos los buques que han tenido escala en algún puerto español y los hemos clasificado por distancia navegada, tipo de buque y potencia. Este encarecimiento del transporte marítimo será trasladado al sector exterior español, lo cual producirá un aumento del coste de las importaciones y exportaciones por mar en un país muy expuesto, pues el 75,61% del total de las importaciones y el 53,64% del total de las exportaciones se han hecho por vía marítima. Las tres industrias que se verán más afectadas son aquellas cuyo valor de mercancía es inferior respecto a su coste de transporte. Para ellas los aumentos del coste sobre el total del valor de cada mercancía serán de un 2,94% para la madera y corcho, un 2,14% para los productos minerales y un 1,93% para las manufacturas de piedra, cemento, cerámica y vidrio. Las mercancías que entren o salgan por los dos archipiélagos españoles de Canarias y Baleares serán las que se verán más impactadas por el extra coste del transporte marítimo, ya que son los puertos más alejados de otros puertos principales y, por tanto, con más distancia de navegación. Sin embargo, esta no es la única alternativa al cumplimiento de la nueva regulación. De la lectura del capítulo 6 concluimos que las tecnologías de equipos scrubbers y de propulsión con GNL permitirán al buque consumir combustibles más baratos al gasoil, a cambio de una inversión en estas tecnologías. ¿Serán los ahorros producidos por estas nuevas tecnologías suficientes para justificar su inversión? Para contestar la anterior pregunta, en el capítulo 7 hemos comparado las tres alternativas y hemos calculado tanto los costes de inversión como los gastos operativos correspondientes a equipos scrubbers o propulsión con GNL para una selección de 53 categorías de buques. La inversión en equipos scrubbers es más conveniente para buques grandes, con navegación no regular. Sin embargo, para buques de tamaño menor y navegación regular por puertos con buena infraestructura de suministro de GNL, la inversión en una propulsión con GNL como combustible será la más adecuada. En el caso de un tiempo de navegación del 100% dentro de zonas ECA y bajo el escenario de precios visto durante el año 2014, los proyectos con mejor plazo de recuperación de la inversión en equipos scrubbers son para los cruceros de gran tamaño (100.000 tons. GT), para los que se recupera la inversión en 0,62 años, los grandes portacontenedores de más de 8.000 TEUs con 0,64 años de recuperación y entre 5.000-8.000 TEUs con 0,71 años de recuperación y, por último, los grandes petroleros de más de 200.000 tons. de peso muerto donde tenemos un plazo de recuperación de 0,82 años. La inversión en scrubbers para buques pequeños, por el contrario, tarda más tiempo en recuperarse llegando a más de 5 años en petroleros y quimiqueros de menos de 5.000 toneladas de peso muerto. En el caso de una posible inversión en propulsión con GNL, las categorías de buques donde la inversión en GNL es más favorable y recuperable en menor tiempo son las más pequeñas, como ferris, cruceros o RoRos. Tomamos ahora el caso particular de un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 toneladas de peso muerto ya construido y nos planteamos la viabilidad de la inversión en la instalación de un equipo scrubber o bien, el cambio a una propulsión por GNL a partir del año 2015. Se comprueba que las dos variables que más impactan sobre la conveniencia de la inversión son el tiempo de navegación del buque dentro de zonas de emisiones controladas (ECA) y el escenario futuro de precios del MGO, HSFO y GNL. Para realizar este análisis hemos estudiado cada inversión, calculando una batería de condiciones de mérito como el payback, TIR, VAN y la evolución de la tesorería del inversor. Posteriormente, hemos calculado las condiciones de contorno mínimas de este buque en concreto para asegurar una inversión no sólo aceptable, sino además conveniente para el naviero inversor. En el entorno de precios del 2014 -con un diferencial entre fuel y gasóleo de 264,35 USD/ton- si el buque pasa más de un 56% de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) en el equipo scrubber que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor tomado como coste de oportunidad. Para el caso de inversión en GNL, en el entorno de precios del año 2014 -con un diferencial entre GNL y gasóleo de 353,8 USD/ton FOE- si el buque pasa más de un 64,8 % de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor del coste de oportunidad. Para un tiempo en zona ECA estimado de un 60%, la rentabilidad de la inversión (TIR) en scrubbers para los inversores será igual o superior al 9,6%, el coste de oportunidad requerido por el inversor, para valores del diferencial de precio entre los dos combustibles alternativos, gasóleo (MGO) y fuel oil (HSFO) a partir de 244,73 USD/ton. En el caso de una inversión en propulsión GNL se requeriría un diferencial de precio entre MGO y GNL de 382,3 USD/ton FOE o superior. Así, para un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 DWT, la inversión en una reconversión para instalar un equipo scrubber es más conveniente que la de GNL, pues alcanza rentabilidades de la inversión (TIR) para inversores del 12,77%, frente a un 6,81% en el caso de invertir en GNL. Para ambos cálculos se ha tomado un buque que navegue un 60% de su tiempo por zona ECA y un escenario de precios medios del año 2014 para el combustible. Po otro lado, las inversiones en estas tecnologías a partir del año 2025 para nuevas construcciones son en ambos casos convenientes. El naviero deberá prestar especial atención aquí a las características propias de su buque y tipo de navegación, así como a la infraestructura de suministros y vertidos en los puertos donde vaya a operar usualmente. Si bien, no se ha estudiado en profundidad en esta tesis, no olvidemos que el sector marítimo debe cumplir además con las otras dos limitaciones que la regulación de la OMI establece sobre las emisiones de óxidos de Nitrógeno (NOx) y Carbono (CO2) y que sin duda, requerirán adicionales inversiones en diversos equipos. De manera que, si bien las consecuencias del consumo de gasóleo como alternativa al cumplimiento de la Regulación MARPOL son ciertamente preocupantes, existen alternativas al uso del gasóleo, con un aumento sobre el coste del transporte marítimo menor y manteniendo los beneficios sociales que pretende dicha ley. En efecto, como hemos demostrado, las opciones que se plantean como más rentables desde el punto de vista financiero son el consumo de GNL en los buques pequeños y de línea regular (cruceros, ferries, RoRos), y la instalación de scrubbers para el resto de buques de grandes dimensiones. Pero, por desgracia, estas inversiones no llegan a hacerse realidad por el elevado grado de incertidumbre asociado a estos dos mercados, que aumenta el riesgo empresarial, tanto de navieros como de suministradores de estas nuevas tecnologías. Observamos así una gran reticencia del sector privado a decidirse por estas dos alternativas. Este elevado nivel de riesgo sólo puede reducirse fomentando el esfuerzo conjunto del sector público y privado para superar estas barreras de entrada del mercado de scrubbers y GNL, que lograrían reducir las externalidades medioambientales de las emisiones sin restar competitividad al transporte marítimo. Creemos así, que los mismos organismos que aprobaron dicha ley deben ayudar al sector naviero a afrontar las inversiones en dichas tecnologías, así como a impulsar su investigación y promover la creación de una infraestructura portuaria adaptada a suministros de GNL y a descargas de vertidos procedentes de los equipos scrubber. Deberían además, prestar especial atención sobre las ayudas al sector de corta distancia para evitar que pierda competitividad frente a otros medios de transporte por el cumplimiento de esta normativa. Actualmente existen varios programas europeos de incentivos, como TEN-T o Marco Polo, pero no los consideramos suficientes. Por otro lado, la Organización Marítima Internacional debe confirmar cuanto antes si retrasa o no al 2025 la nueva bajada del nivel de azufre en combustibles. De esta manera, se eliminaría la gran incertidumbre temporal que actualmente tienen tanto navieros, como empresas petroleras y puertos para iniciar sus futuras inversiones y poder estudiar la viabilidad de cada alternativa de forma individual. ABSTRACT On 10 October 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) signed an amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL 73/78 convention establishing a gradual reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships, and an additional reduction in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from marine engines which cause environmental problems such as acid rain and the greenhouse effect. According to this regulation, from 1 January 2015, ships travelling in an Emission Control Area (ECA) must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.1%. From 1 January 2020, or alternatively from 2025 if the IMO should decide to delay its introduction, all ships must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.5%. As before, this content will be 0.1%S for voyages within ECAs. Meanwhile, the European Union has gone further than the IMO, and will apply the strictest limits of the MARPOL directives in the waters of its exclusive economic zone from 2020. To this end, Directive 2012/33/EU was issued on 21 November 2013 as an addendum to the 1999 Directive. These laws are intended to improve public health and the environment, benefiting society by reducing disease, particularly respiratory problems. The first question which arises is: what fuel do ships currently use, and what fuel will they have to use to comply with the Convention? Today, large international shipping vessels consume fuel oil with a sulphur level of 3.5%. Do fuel oils exist with a sulphur level of 0.5%S? As we conclude in Chapter 4, oil companies regard marine fuel oil as a by-product of refining Brent to produce their basket of products, as the demand for fuel oil is declining in comparison to other products, and the profit margin on the sale of other petroleum products is higher. Thus, oil companies are not interested in investing in their refineries to produce low-sulphur fuel oils, and if a company should decide to invest in producing a 0.5%S fuel oil, its price would have to be very similar to that of marine gas oil in order to recoup the investment. Therefore, the only fuel which presently complies with the new levels required by the IMO is marine gas oil, which was priced on average 307 USD/tonne higher than current fuel oils during 2014. This higher purchasing price for fuel will have a direct impact on the cost of maritime transport. The entry into force of the above directive presents a challenge for the entire maritime sector. There are various alternative approaches to this situation, with different technical, operational and financial implications. At present three options are the most widespread in the sector. The first option consists of “doing nothing” and simply switching from fuel oil to marine gas oil in large ships. The second option is installing a scrubber system, which would enable ships to continue consuming fuel oil, cleaning the combustion gases before they are released to the atmosphere. And finally, the third option is using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is priced lower than marine gas oil, as a fuel. However, there is still significant uncertainty on future variations in prices, the operation and maintenance of the new technologies, the investments required, the availability of port infrastructure and even future developments in the international regulations themselves. These uncertainties mean that none of these three alternatives has been unanimously accepted by the sector. In this Thesis, after discussing all the regulations applicable to the sector in Chapter 3, we investigate their consequences. In Chapter 4 we examine whether there are currently any marine fuels on the market which meet the new sulphur limits, and if not, how much new fuels would cost. In Chapter 5, based on the hypothesis that all ships will switch from fuel oil to marine gas oil to comply with the regulations, we calculate the increase in demand for marine gas oil this would lead to, and analyse the consequences this would have on marine gas oil production in the Mediterranean. We also calculate the economic impact such a cost increase would have on Spain's external sector. To do this, we also use the Automatic Identification System (AIS) system to analyse the data of every ship stopping in any Spanish port, in order to calculate the extra cost of using marine gas oil in maritime transport for all Spain's imports and exports. Finally, in Chapter 6, we examine and compare the other two alternatives to marine gas oil, scrubbers and LNG, and in Chapter 7 we analyse the viability of investing in these two technologies in order to comply with the regulations. In Chapter 5 we explain the many existing methods for calculating a ship's fuel consumption. We use a bottom-up calculation method, based on aggregating the activity and characteristics of each type of vessel. The result is based on the installed engine power of each ship, the engine load percentage and its specific consumption. To do this, we analyse the number of ships travelling in the Mediterranean in the course of one year, using the AIS, a marine traffic monitoring system, to take “snapshots” of marine traffic in the Mediterranean and report all ships at sea on random days throughout 2014. Finally, with the above data, we calculate the potential demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean. If nothing else is done and ships begin to use marine gas oil instead of fuel oil in order to comply with the regulation, the demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean will increase by 12.12 MTA (Millions Tonnes per Annum) from 2020. This means an increase of around 3.72 billion dollars a year in fuel costs, taking as reference the average price of marine fuels in 2014. Such an increase in demand in the Mediterranean would be equivalent to 43% of the total demand for diesel in Spain in 2013, including automotive diesel fuels, biodiesel and marine gas oils, and 3.2% of European consumption of middle distillates in 2014. Would the European market be able to supply enough to meet this greater demand for diesel? Europe has always had a surplus of gasoline and a deficit of middle distillates. In 2009, Europe had to import 4.8 MTA from North America and 22.1 MTA from Asia. Therefore, this increased demand on Europe's already limited capacity for refining middle distillates would lead to increased imports and higher prices, especially in the diesel market. The sector which would suffer the greatest impact of increased demand for marine gas oil would be Mediterranean cruise ships, which represent 30.4% of the fuel demand of the entire world cruise fleet, meaning their fuel costs would rise by 386 million USD per year. ROROs in the Mediterranean, which represent 23.6% of the demand of the world fleet of this type of ship, would see their fuel costs increase by 171 million USD a year. The greatest cost increase would be among container ships, with an increase on current costs of 1.168 billion USD per year. However, their consumption in the Mediterranean represents only 5.3% of worldwide fuel consumption by container ships. These figures raise the question of whether a cost increase of this size for RORO ships would lead to short-distance marine transport in general becoming less competitive compared to other transport options on certain routes. For example, some of the goods that ships now carry could switch to road transport, with the undesirable effects on the environment and on operations that this would produce. In the particular case of Spain, the extra cost of switching to marine gas oil in all ships stopping at any Spanish port in 2013 would be 1.717 billion EUR per year, as we demonstrate in the last part of Chapter 5. For this calculation, we used the AIS system to analyse all ships which stopped at any Spanish port, classifying them by distance travelled, type of ship and engine power. This rising cost of marine transport would be passed on to the Spanish external sector, increasing the cost of imports and exports by sea in a country which relies heavily on maritime transport, which accounts for 75.61% of Spain's total imports and 53.64% of its total exports. The three industries which would be worst affected are those with goods of lower value relative to transport costs. The increased costs over the total value of each good would be 2.94% for wood and cork, 2.14% for mineral products and 1.93% for manufactured stone, cement, ceramic and glass products. Goods entering via the two Spanish archipelagos, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, would suffer the greatest impact from the extra cost of marine transport, as these ports are further away from other major ports and thus the distance travelled is greater. However, this is not the only option for compliance with the new regulations. From our readings in Chapter 6 we conclude that scrubbers and LNG propulsion would enable ships to use cheaper fuels than marine gas oil, in exchange for investing in these technologies. Would the savings gained by these new technologies be enough to justify the investment? To answer this question, in Chapter 7 we compare the three alternatives and calculate both the cost of investment and the operating costs associated with scrubbers or LNG propulsion for a selection of 53 categories of ships. Investing in scrubbers is more advisable for large ships with no fixed runs. However, for smaller ships with regular runs to ports with good LNG supply infrastructure, investing in LNG propulsion would be the best choice. In the case of total transit time within an ECA and the pricing scenario seen in 2014, the best payback periods on investments in scrubbers are for large cruise ships (100,000 gross tonnage), which would recoup their investment in 0.62 years; large container ships, with a 0.64 year payback period for those over 8,000 TEUs and 0.71 years for the 5,000-8,000 TEU category; and finally, large oil tankers over 200,000 deadweight tonnage, which would recoup their investment in 0.82 years. However, investing in scrubbers would have a longer payback period for smaller ships, up to 5 years or more for oil tankers and chemical tankers under 5,000 deadweight tonnage. In the case of LNG propulsion, a possible investment is more favourable and the payback period is shorter for smaller ship classes, such as ferries, cruise ships and ROROs. We now take the case of a ship transporting clean products, already built, with a deadweight tonnage of 38,500, and consider the viability of investing in installing a scrubber or changing to LNG propulsion, starting in 2015. The two variables with the greatest impact on the advisability of the investment are how long the ship is at sea within emission control areas (ECA) and the future price scenario of MGO, HSFO and LNG. For this analysis, we studied each investment, calculating a battery of merit conditions such as the payback period, IRR, NPV and variations in the investors' liquid assets. We then calculated the minimum boundary conditions to ensure the investment was not only acceptable but advisable for the investor shipowner. Thus, for the average price differential of 264.35 USD/tonne between HSFO and MGO during 2014, investors' return on investment (IRR) in scrubbers would be the same as the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, for values of over 56% ship transit time in ECAs. For the case of investing in LNG and the average price differential between MGO and LNG of 353.8 USD/tonne FOE in 2014, the ship must spend 64.8% of its time in ECAs for the investment to be advisable. For an estimated 60% of time in an ECA, the internal rate of return (IRR) for investors equals the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, based on a price difference of 244.73 USD/tonne between the two alternative fuels, marine gas oil (MGO) and fuel oil (HSFO). An investment in LNG propulsion would require a price differential between MGO and LNG of 382.3 USD/tonne FOE. Thus, for a 38,500 DWT ship carrying clean products, investing in retrofitting to install a scrubber is more advisable than converting to LNG, with an internal rate of return (IRR) for investors of 12.77%, compared to 6.81% for investing in LNG. Both calculations were based on a ship which spends 60% of its time at sea in an ECA and a scenario of average 2014 prices. However, for newly-built ships, investments in either of these technologies from 2025 would be advisable. Here, the shipowner must pay particular attention to the specific characteristics of their ship, the type of operation, and the infrastructure for supplying fuel and handling discharges in the ports where it will usually operate. Thus, while the consequences of switching to marine gas oil in order to comply with the MARPOL regulations are certainly alarming, there are alternatives to marine gas oil, with smaller increases in the costs of maritime transport, while maintaining the benefits to society this law is intended to provide. Indeed, as we have demonstrated, the options which appear most favourable from a financial viewpoint are conversion to LNG for small ships and regular runs (cruise ships, ferries, ROROs), and installing scrubbers for large ships. Unfortunately, however, these investments are not being made, due to the high uncertainty associated with these two markets, which increases business risk, both for shipowners and for the providers of these new technologies. This means we are seeing considerable reluctance regarding these two options among the private sector. This high level of risk can be lowered only by encouraging joint efforts by the public and private sectors to overcome these barriers to entry into the market for scrubbers and LNG, which could reduce the environmental externalities of emissions without affecting the competitiveness of marine transport. Our opinion is that the same bodies which approved this law must help the shipping industry invest in these technologies, drive research on them, and promote the creation of a port infrastructure which is adapted to supply LNG and handle the discharges from scrubber systems. At present there are several European incentive programmes, such as TEN-T and Marco Polo, but we do not consider these to be sufficient. For its part, the International Maritime Organization should confirm as soon as possible whether the new lower sulphur levels in fuels will be postponed until 2025. This would eliminate the great uncertainty among shipowners, oil companies and ports regarding the timeline for beginning their future investments and for studying their viability.

The optimal measure of allelic association

Allelic association between pairs of loci is derived in terms of the association probability ρ as a function of recombination θ, effective population size N, linear systematic pressure v, and time t, predicting both ρrt, the decrease of association from founders and ρct, the increase by genetic drift, with ρt = ρrt + ρct. These results conform to the Malecot equation, with time replaced by distance on the genetic map, or on the physical map if recombination in the region is uniform. Earlier evidence suggested that ρ is less sensitive to variations in marker allele frequencies than alternative metrics for which there is no probability theory. This robustness is confirmed for six alternatives in eight samples. In none of these 48 tests was the residual variance as small as for ρ. Overall, efficiency was less than 80% for all alternatives, and less than 30% for two of them. Efficiency of alternatives did not increase when information was estimated simultaneously. The swept radius within which substantial values of ρ are conserved lies between 385 and 893 kb, but deviation of parameters between measures is enormously significant. The large effort now being devoted to allelic association has little value unless the ρ metric with the strongest theoretical basis and least sensitivity to marker allele frequencies is used for mapping of marker association and localization of disease loci.