Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Broadening the perspective on the airborne transmission of respiratory infection

Airborne bioaerosols are becoming increasingly recognized as a potential route of transmission for the spread of bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Role of enhanced vector transmission of a new West Nile virus strain in an outbreak of equine disease in Australia in 2011

Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.

Wolbachia reduces the transmission potential of Dengue-infected Aedes aegypti

BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses (DENV) are the causative agents of dengue, the world's most prevalent arthropod-borne disease with around 40% of the world's population at risk of infection annually. Wolbachia pipientis, an obligate intracellular bacterium, is being developed as a biocontrol strategy against dengue because it limits replication of the virus in the mosquito. The Wolbachia strain wMel, which has been introduced into the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, has been shown to invade and spread to near fixation in field releases. Standard measures of Wolbachia's efficacy for blocking virus replication focus on the detection and quantification of virus in mosquito tissues. Examining the saliva provides a more accurate measure of transmission potential and can reveal the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), that is, the time it takes virus to arrive in the saliva following the consumption of DENV viremic blood. EIP is a key determinant of a mosquito's ability to transmit DENVs, as the earlier the virus appears in the saliva the more opportunities the mosquito will have to infect humans on subsequent bites. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a non-destructive assay to repeatedly quantify DENV in saliva from wMel-infected and Wolbachia-free wild-type control mosquitoes following the consumption of a DENV-infected blood meal. We show that wMel lengthens the EIP, reduces the frequency at which the virus is expectorated and decreases the dengue copy number in mosquito saliva as compared to wild-type mosquitoes. These observations can at least be partially explained by an overall reduction in saliva produced by wMel mosquitoes. More generally, we found that the concentration of DENV in a blood meal is a determinant of the length of EIP, saliva virus titer and mosquito survival. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The saliva-based traits reported here offer more disease-relevant measures of Wolbachia's effects on the vector and the virus. The lengthening of EIP highlights another means, in addition to the reduction of infection frequencies and DENV titers in mosquitoes, by which Wolbachia should operate to reduce DENV transmission in the field.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised volatility as explanatory variables, significant volatility and news spillovers are found to occur on the same trading day between Japan, Europe, and the United States. All markets exhibit significant degrees of asymmetry in terms of the transmission of volatility associated with good and bad news. There are also strong links between diffusive volatilities in all three markets, whereas jumpactivity is only importantwithin the equitymarkets. The results of this paper deepen our understanding of how news and volatility are propagated through global financial markets.

A High-Resolution Transmission of the Precipitation Process in a Electron Microscopy Study Dilute Ti-N Alloy

The precipitation processes in dilute nitrogen alloys of titanium have been examined in detail by conventional transmission electron microscopy (CTEM) and high-resolution electron microscopy (HREM). The alloy Ti-2 at. pct N on quenching from its high-temperature beta phase field has been found to undergo early stages of decomposition. The supersaturated solid solution (alpha''-hcp) on decomposition gives rise to an intimately mixed, irresolvable product microstructure. The associated strong tweed contrast presents difficulties in understanding the characteristic features of the process. Therefore, HREM has been carried out with a view to getting a clear picture of the decomposition process. Studies on the quenched samples of the alloy suggest the formation of solute-rich zones of a few atom layers thick, randomly distributed throughout the matrix. On aging, these zones grow to a size beyond which the precipitate/matrix interfaces appear to become incoherent and the alpha' (tetragonal) product phase is seen distinctly. The structural details, the crystallography of the precipitation process, and the sequence of precipitation reaction in the system are illustrated.

Complex crystallization dynamics in amorphous germanium observed with dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Crystallization of amorphous germanium (a-Ge) by laser or electron beam heating is a remarkably complex process that involves several distinct modes of crystal growth and the development of intricate microstructural patterns on the nanosecond to ten microsecond time scales. Here we use dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM) to study the fast, complex crystallization dynamics with 10 nm spatial and 15 ns temporal resolution. We have obtained time-resolved real-space images of nanosecond laser-induced crystallization in a-Ge with unprecedentedly high spatial resolution. Direct visualization of the crystallization front allows for time-resolved snapshots of the initiation and roughening of the dendrites on submicrosecond time scales. This growth is followed by a rapid transition to a ledgelike growth mechanism that produces a layered microstructure on a time scale of several microseconds. This study provides insights into the mechanisms governing this complex crystallization process and is a dramatic demonstration of the power of DTEM for studying time-dependent material processes far from equilibrium.

In situ investigation of explosive crystallization in a-Ge: Experimental determination of the interface response function using dynamic transmission electron microscopy

The crystallization of amorphous semiconductors is a strongly exothermic process. Once initiated the release of latent heat can be sufficient to drive a self-sustaining crystallization front through the material in a manner that has been described as explosive. Here, we perform a quantitative in situ study of explosive crystallization in amorphous germanium using dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Direct observations of the speed of the explosive crystallization front as it evolves along a laser-imprinted temperature gradient are used to experimentally determine the complete interface response function (i.e., the temperature-dependent front propagation speed) for this process, which reaches a peak of 16 m/s. Fitting to the Frenkel-Wilson kinetic law demonstrates that the diffusivity of the material locally/immediately in advance of the explosive crystallization front is inconsistent with those of a liquid phase. This result suggests a modification to the liquid-mediated mechanism commonly used to describe this process that replaces the phase change at the leading amorphous-liquid interface with a change in bonding character (from covalent to metallic) occurring in the hot amorphous material.

Canine-human transmission of Gastrospirillum hominis

We report electron microscopic evidence of transmission from a pet dog to a 12-year-girl of Gastrospirillum hominis which caused gastric disease in both that was eradicable with treatment. © 1994.

In situ transmission electron microscopy study of deformation of an aluminum alloy tribolayer

Nanoscale deformation in the tribolayer of an Al–Mg alloy is studied using an in situ mechanical probe in a transmission electron microscope. The sample is strained locally at room temperature and the deformation is observed in real time. It is observed that when the tungsten probe comes into contact with the tribolayer, the material exhibits further hardening followed by material removal.