Improved Process Monitoring Using Nonlinear Principal Component Models

This paper presents two new approaches for use in complete process monitoring. The firstconcerns the identification of nonlinear principal component models. This involves the application of linear
principal component analysis (PCA), prior to the identification of a modified autoassociative neural network (AAN) as the required nonlinear PCA (NLPCA) model. The benefits are that (i) the number of the reduced set of linear principal components (PCs) is smaller than the number of recorded process variables, and (ii) the set of PCs is better conditioned as redundant information is removed. The result is a new set of input data for a modified neural representation, referred to as a T2T network. The T2T NLPCA model is then used for complete process monitoring, involving fault detection, identification and isolation. The second approach introduces a new variable reconstruction algorithm, developed from the T2T NLPCA model. Variable reconstruction can enhance the findings of the contribution charts still widely used in industry by reconstructing the outputs from faulty sensors to produce more accurate fault isolation. These ideas are illustrated using recorded industrial data relating to developing cracks in an industrial glass melter process. A comparison of linear and nonlinear models, together with the combined use of contribution charts and variable reconstruction, is presented.

A comprehensive comparison between generalized incidence calculus and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.

Dealing with uncertainty problems in intelligent systems has attracted a lot of attention in the AI community. Quite a few techniques have been proposed. Among them, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence (DS theory) has been widely appreciated. In DS theory, Dempster's combination rule plays a major role. However, it has been pointed out that the application domains of the rule are rather limited and the application of the theory sometimes gives unexpected results. We have previously explored the problem with Dempster's combination rule and proposed an alternative combination mechanism in generalized incidence calculus. In this paper we give a comprehensive comparison between generalized incidence calculus and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. We first prove that these two theories have the same ability in representing evidence and combining DS-independent evidence. We then show that the new approach can deal with some dependent situations while Dempster's combination rule cannot. Various examples in the paper show the ways of using generalized incidence calculus in expert systems.

Modeling and reasoning with qualitative comparative clinical knowledge

The number of clinical trials reports is increasing rapidly due to a large number of clinical trials being conducted; it, therefore, raises an urgent need to utilize the clinical knowledge contained in the clinical trials reports. In this paper, we focus on the qualitative knowledge instead of quantitative knowledge. More precisely, we aim to model and reason with the qualitative comparison (QC for short) relations which consider qualitatively how strongly one drug/therapy is preferred to another in a clinical point of view. To this end, first, we formalize the QC relations, introduce the notions of QC language, QC base, and QC profile; second, we propose a set of induction rules for the QC relations and provide grading interpretations for the QC bases and show how to determine whether a QC base is consistent. Furthermore, when a QC base is inconsistent, we analyze how to measure inconsistencies among QC bases, and we propose different approaches to merging multiple QC bases. Finally, a case study on lowering intraocular pressure is conducted to illustrate our approaches.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

Algorithms for Hidden Markov Models With Imprecisely Specified Parameters

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used models for sequential data. As with other probabilistic graphical models, they require the specification of precise probability values, which can be too restrictive for some domains, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. We present a generalized version of HMMs, whose quantification can be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. Our models have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. Efficient inference algorithms are developed to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations. Experiments with real data show that the use of imprecise probabilities leads to more reliable inferences without compromising efficiency.

A Characteristic Function Approach to Inconsistency Measures for Knowledge Bases.

Knowledge is an important component in many intelligent systems.
Since items of knowledge in a knowledge base can be conflicting, especially if
there are multiple sources contributing to the knowledge in this base, significant
research efforts have been made on developing inconsistency measures for
knowledge bases and on developing merging approaches. Most of these efforts
start with flat knowledge bases. However, in many real-world applications, items
of knowledge are not perceived with equal importance, rather, weights (which
can be used to indicate the importance or priority) are associated with items of
knowledge. Therefore, measuring the inconsistency of a knowledge base with
weighted formulae as well as their merging is an important but difficult task. In
this paper, we derive a numerical characteristic function from each knowledge
base with weighted formulae, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.
Using these functions, we are able to measure the inconsistency of the knowledge
base in a convenient and rational way, and are able to merge multiple knowledge
bases with weighted formulae, even if knowledge in these bases may be
inconsistent. Furthermore, by examining whether multiple knowledge bases are
dependent or independent, they can be combined in different ways using their
characteristic functions, which cannot be handled (or at least have never been
considered) in classic knowledge based merging approaches in the literature.

Artificial neural network model to predict compositional viscosity over a broad range of temperatures

The objective of this study is to provide an alternative model approach, i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) model, to predict the compositional viscosity of binary mixtures of room temperature ionic liquids (in short as ILs) [C _n-mim] [NTf ₂] with n=4, 6, 8, 10 in methanol and ethanol over the entire range of molar fraction at a broad range of temperatures from T=293.0328.0K. The results show that the proposed ANN model provides alternative way to predict compositional viscosity successfully with highly improved accuracy and also show its potential to be extensively utilized to predict compositional viscosity over a wide range of temperatures and more complex viscosity compositions, i.e., more complex intermolecular interactions between components in which it would be hard or impossible to establish the analytical model. © 2010 IEEE.

Context-dependent Combination of Sensor Information in Dempster-Shafer Theory for BDI

There has been much interest in the belief–desire–intention (BDI) agent-based model for developing scalable intelligent systems, e.g. using the AgentSpeak framework. However, reasoning from sensor information in these large-scale systems remains a significant challenge. For example, agents may be faced with information from heterogeneous sources which is uncertain and incomplete, while the sources themselves may be unreliable or conflicting. In order to derive meaningful conclusions, it is important that such information be correctly modelled and combined. In this paper, we choose to model uncertain sensor information in Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory. Unfortunately, as in other uncertainty theories, simple combination strategies in DS theory are often too restrictive (losing valuable information) or too permissive (resulting in ignorance). For this reason, we investigate how a context-dependent strategy originally defined for possibility theory can be adapted to DS theory. In particular, we use the notion of largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSes) to characterise the context for when to use Dempster’s original rule of combination and for when to resort to an alternative. To guide this process, we identify existing measures of similarity and conflict for finding LPMCSes along with quality of information heuristics to ensure that LPMCSes are formed around high-quality information. We then propose an intelligent sensor model for integrating this information into the AgentSpeak framework which is responsible for applying evidence propagation to construct compatible information, for performing context-dependent combination and for deriving beliefs for revising an agent’s belief base. Finally, we present a power grid scenario inspired by a real-world case study to demonstrate our work.

Kinect and Episodic Reasoning for Human Action Recognition

This paper presents a method for rational behaviour recognition that combines vision-based pose estimation with knowledge modeling and reasoning. The proposed method consists of two stages. First, RGB-D images are used in the estimation of the body postures. Then, estimated actions are evaluated to verify that they make sense. This method requires rational behaviour to be exhibited. To comply with this requirement, this work proposes a rational RGB-D dataset with two types of sequences, some for training and some for testing. Preliminary results show the addition of knowledge modeling and reasoning leads to a significant increase of recognition accuracy when compared to a system based only on computer vision.