A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

Pooled analysis of recent studies on magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia

BACKGROUND: Previous pooled analyses have reported an association between magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia. We present a pooled analysis based on primary data from studies on residential magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia published after 2000. METHODS: Seven studies with a total of 10 865 cases and 12 853 controls were included. The main analysis focused on 24-h magnetic field measurements or calculated fields in residences. RESULTS: In the combined results, risk increased with increase in exposure, but the estimates were imprecise. The odds ratios for exposure categories of 0.1-0.2 mu T, 0.2-0.3 mu T and >= 0.3 mu T, compared with <0.1 mu T, were 1.07 (95% Cl 0.81-1.41), 1.16 (0.69-1.93) and 1.44 (0.88-2.36), respectively. Without the most influential study from Brazil, the odds ratios increased somewhat. An increasing trend was also suggested by a nonparametric analysis conducted using a generalised additive model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are in line with previous pooled analyses showing an association between magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia. Overall, the association is weaker in the most recently conducted studies, but these studies are small and lack methodological improvements needed to resolve the apparent association. We conclude that recent studies on magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia do not alter the previous assessment that magnetic fields are possibly carcinogenic. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 1128-1135. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605838 www.bjcancer.com (c) 2010 Cancer Research UK

DYNAMIC AND STEADY-SHEAR RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF XANTHAN AND GUAR GUMS DISPERSED IN YELLOW PASSION FRUIT PULP (Passiflora edulis f. flavicarpa)

Yellow passion fruit pulp is unstable, presenting phase separation that can be avoided by the addition of hydrocolloids. For this purpose, xanthan and guar gum [0.3, 0.7 and 1.0% (w/w)] were added to yellow passion fruit pulp and the changes in the dynamic and steady-shear rheological behavior evaluated. Xanthan dispersions showed a more pronounced pseudoplasticity and the presence of yield stress, which was not observed in the guar gum dispersions. Cross model fitting to flow curves showed that the xanthan suspensions also had higher zero shear viscosity than the guar suspensions, and, for both gums, an increase in temperature led to lower values for this parameter. The gums showed different behavior as a function of temperature in the range of 5-35 degrees C. The activation energy of the apparent viscosity was dependent on the shear rate and gum concentration for guar, whereas for xanthan these values only varied with the concentration. The mechanical spectra were well described by the generalized Maxwell model and the xanthan dispersions showed a more elastic character than the guar dispersions, with higher values for the relaxation time. Xanthan was characterized as a weak gel, while guar presented a concentrated solution behavior. The simultaneous evaluation of temperature and concentration showed a stronger influence of the polysaccharide concentration on the apparent viscosity and the G` and G `` moduli than the variation in temperature.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

Transformed symmetric models

For the first time, we introduce a class of transformed symmetric models to extend the Box and Cox models to more general symmetric models. The new class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions with a possible non-linear structure for the mean and enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several data types. The proposed methods offer more flexible alternatives to Box-Cox or other existing procedures. We derive a very simple iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood, whereas a direct unconditional maximization would be more difficult. We give simple formulae to estimate the parameter that indexes the transformation of the response variable and the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We discuss inference on the model parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a real dataset.

Novel Statistical Methods in Quantitative Genetics : Modeling Genetic Variance for Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping and Genomic Evaluation

This thesis develops and evaluates statistical methods for different types of genetic analyses, including quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, genome-wide association study (GWAS), and genomic evaluation. The main contribution of the thesis is to provide novel insights in modeling genetic variance, especially via random effects models. In variance component QTL analysis, a full likelihood model accounting for uncertainty in the identity-by-descent (IBD) matrix was developed. It was found to be able to correctly adjust the bias in genetic variance component estimation and gain power in QTL mapping in terms of precision.  Double hierarchical generalized linear models, and a non-iterative simplified version, were implemented and applied to fit data of an entire genome. These whole genome models were shown to have good performance in both QTL mapping and genomic prediction. A re-analysis of a publicly available GWAS data set identified significant loci in Arabidopsis that control phenotypic variance instead of mean, which validated the idea of variance-controlling genes.  The works in the thesis are accompanied by R packages available online, including a general statistical tool for fitting random effects models (hglm), an efficient generalized ridge regression for high-dimensional data (bigRR), a double-layer mixed model for genomic data analysis (iQTL), a stochastic IBD matrix calculator (MCIBD), a computational interface for QTL mapping (qtl.outbred), and a GWAS analysis tool for mapping variance-controlling loci (vGWAS).

Genetic heterogeneity of within-family variance of body weight in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

BACKGROUND: Canalization is defined as the stability of a genotype against minor variations in both environment and genetics. Genetic variation in degree of canalization causes heterogeneity of within-family variance. The aims of this study are twofold: (1) quantify genetic heterogeneity of (within-family) residual variance in Atlantic salmon and (2) test whether the observed heterogeneity of (within-family) residual variance can be explained by simple scaling effects. RESULTS: Analysis of body weight in Atlantic salmon using a double hierarchical generalized linear model (DHGLM) revealed substantial heterogeneity of within-family variance. The 95% prediction interval for within-family variance ranged from ~0.4 to 1.2 kg2, implying that the within-family variance of the most extreme high families is expected to be approximately three times larger than the extreme low families. For cross-sectional data, DHGLM with an animal mean sub-model resulted in severe bias, while a corresponding sire-dam model was appropriate. Heterogeneity of variance was not sensitive to Box-Cox transformations of phenotypes, which implies that heterogeneity of variance exists beyond what would be expected from simple scaling effects. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial heterogeneity of within-family variance was found for body weight in Atlantic salmon. A tendency towards higher variance with higher means (scaling effects) was observed, but heterogeneity of within-family variance existed beyond what could be explained by simple scaling effects. For cross-sectional data, using the animal mean sub-model in the DHGLM resulted in biased estimates of variance components, which differed substantially both from a standard linear mean animal model and a sire-dam DHGLM model. Although genetic differences in canalization were observed, selection for increased canalization is difficult, because there is limited individual information for the variance sub-model, especially when based on cross-sectional data. Furthermore, potential macro-environmental changes (diet, climatic region, etc.) may make genetic heterogeneity of variance a less stable trait over time and space.

Custos de provisão de cestas de bens públicos

Há décadas os economistas se preocupam com o problema de calcular o Custo Marginal do Financiamento Público (MCF, em inglês). Um dos maiores sucessos nessa área é o modelo de provisão de bem público com taxação distorciva de Wildasin (1984). Nós generalizamos o modelo de Wildasin para incluir uma cesta de bens públicos, ao invés de um único bem. Em seguida realizamos várias estimativas do MCF para o Brasil, algumas inclusive sem a hipótese de independência entre o nível de bem público e a oferta de trabalho, usual na literatura. Os resultados mostram que o Custo Marginal do Financiamento Público no Brasil é relativamente pequeno, entre outras causas devido à pequena sensibilidade da oferta de trabalho ao gasto governamental

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Human growth, biological maturation, motor performance and contextual factors in Madeira children

The central aims of this study were: (1) to construct age- and gender-specific percentiles for motor coordination (MC), (2) to analyze the change, stability, and prediction of MC, (3) to investigate the relationship between motor performance and body fatness, and (4) to evaluate the relationships between skeletal maturation and fundamental motor skills (FMS) and MC. The data collected was from the ‘Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study’ and from the ‘Madeira Child Growth Study’. In these studies, MC, FMS, skeletal age, growth characteristics, motor performance, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and geographical area were assessed/measured. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, mixed between-within subjects ANOVA, multilevel models, and hierarchical regression (blocks) were some of the statistical procedures used in the analyses. Scores on walking backwards and moving sideways improved with age. It was also found that boys performed better than girls on moving sideways. Normal-weight children outperformed obese peers in almost all gross MC tests. Inter-age correlations were calculated to be between 0.15 and 0.60. Age was associated with a better performance in catching, scramble, speed run, standing long jump, balance, and tennis ball throwing. Body mass index was positively associated with scramble and speed run, and negatively related to the standing long jump. Physical activity was negatively associated with scramble. Semi-urban children displayed better catching skills relative to their urban peers. The standardized residual of skeletal age on chronological age (SAsr) and its interaction with stature and/or body mass accounted for the maximum of 7.0% of variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se. SAsr alone accounted for a maximum of 9.0% variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se and interactions between SAsr and body size. This study demonstrates the need to promote FMS, MC, motor performance, and physical activity in children.

Análise das relações da curva de crescimento e eficiência produtiva de vacas da raça Holandesa

O objetivo neste trabalho foi analisar as relações entre parâmetros da curva de crescimento (peso à maturidade e taxa de maturação) e medidas da eficiência produtiva de 333 vacas da raça Holandesa nascidas de 1992 a 2002. Dados de idade ao primeiro parto, produção de leite e duração da primeira lactação, primeiro intervalo de partos e produção de leite por dia de intervalo de partos foram analisados por meio de um modelo linear generalizado com o efeito fixo de grupo contemporâneo (ano-estação de nascimento), os efeitos aleatórios de pai da vaca e erro e os efeitos lineares e quadráticos do peso à maturidade e da taxa de maturação. Nas análises de longevidade e de duração da vida útil, incluiu-se o efeito fixo de motivo de descarte da vaca. Houve efeitos linear e quadrático da taxa de maturação sobre a maioria das características, exceto o primeiro intervalo de partos e a produção de leite por dia de intervalo de partos. As estimativas das taxas de maturação ótimas variaram de 0,0896 a 0,1187 kg/kg de peso vivo/mês. O peso à maturidade influenciou a longevidade de forma linear e quadrática. A combinação ótima foi de 701 kg de peso à maturidade e 0,0934 kg/kg de peso vivo/mês de taxa de maturação. O peso à maturidade correlacionou-se de forma desfavorável com a duração da primeira lactação (-0,11). Coeficientes de correlação significativos foram obtidos entre taxa de maturação e idade ao primeiro parto (-0,22), produção de leite na primeira lactação (0,18), duração da primeira lactação (0,18) e longevidade (0,14), o que confirma a hipótese de que vacas com taxas de maturação mais rápidas apresentam maior eficiência produtiva.

Abiotic modulators of Podocnemis unifilis (Testudines: Podocnemididae) abundances in the Peruvian Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Late administration of a specific COX-2 inhibitor does not treat and/or prevent progression of gastric tumors in rats submitted to duodenogastric reflux procedure

PURPOSE:To assess whether late introduction of a specific COX-2 inhibitor (Meloxicam) can treat and/or prevent the progression of tumors in the stomach of rats submitted to duodenogastric reflux. METHODS: Seventy five male Wistar rats, weighing 150 grams, were submitted to the induction of duodenogastric reflux through the pylorus. At 36 weeks of follow-up were established three experimental groups: DGR36 sacrificed immediately, DGR54 and DGR54MLX both sacrificed at 54th week of follow-up . The animals of the latter group were fed with a rat chow premixed with Meloxicam (2.0 mg/ kg feed; 0.3 mg / kg bw / day) and the other two with standard rat chow. The lesions found in the pyloric mucosa and gastrojejunal anastomosis were analyzed macroscopically and histologically. For statistical analysis was adjusted a generalized linear model assuming a binomial distribution with LOGIT link function. RESULTS: No significant differences were found when comparing the incidences of benign tumor lesions (Adenomatous Hyperplasia), p=0.4915, or malignant (Mucinous Adenocarcinoma), p=0.2731, among groups. CONCLUSION: Late introduction of specific COX-2 inhibitor (Meloxicam) did not treat and was not able to prevent the progression of tumoral lesions induced by duodenogastric reflux in the rat stomachs.

Efeitos da poluição atmosférica na saúde infantil em São José dos Campos, SP

OBJETIVO: Dentre os efeitos da poluição ambiental na saúde da criança, destaca-se o aumento de internações por pneumonias. O objetivo do estudo foi estimar a associação dessas internações com o aumento dos poluentes atmosféricos. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo ecológico de séries temporais, realizado na cidade de São José dos Campos, SP, nos anos de 2000 e 2001. Foram utilizados dados diários sobre o número de internações por pneumonia, dados diários de poluentes (SO2, O3 e PM10) e de temperatura e umidade do clima. Foram estimadas as correlações entre as variáveis de interesse pelo coeficiente de Pearson. Para estimar a associação entre as internações por pneumonia e a poluição atmosférica, utilizaram-se modelos aditivos generalizados de regressão de Poisson. Foram estimados os acréscimos das internações por pneumonia para o intervalo interquartil para cada um dos poluentes estudados, com um intervalo de confiança de 95% RESULTADOS: Os três poluentes apresentaram efeitos defasados nas internações por pneumonia, iniciada três a quatro dias após a exposição e decaindo rapidamente. Na estimativa de efeito acumulado de oito dias observou-se ao longo desse período que para aumentos de 24,7 µg/m³ na concentração média de PM10 houve um acréscimo de 9,8% nas internações. CONCLUSÕES: O estudo confirma que o potencial deletério dos poluentes do ar sobre a saúde pode ser detectado, também, em cidades de médio porte. A magnitude do efeito foi semelhante ao observado na cidade de São Paulo. Além disso, mostra a elevada susceptibilidade das crianças aos efeitos adversos advindos da exposição aos contaminantes atmosféricos.

Virasoro constraints and flavor-topology duality in QCD

We derive Virasoro constraints for the zero momentum part of the QCD-like partition functions in the sector of topological charge v. The constraints depend on the topological charge only through the combination N-f +betav/2 where the value of the Dyson index beta is determined by the reality type of the fermions. This duality between flavor and topology is inherited by the small-mass expansion of the partition function and all spectral sum rules of inverse powers of the eigenvalues of the Dirac operator. For the special case beta =2 but arbitrary topological charge the Virasoro constraints are solved uniquely by a generalized Kontsevich model with the potential V(X) = 1/X.