State Space Analysis of Forest Fires

This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual information to reveal potential relationships in the data. Second, we adopt the state space portrait to characterize the system’s behavior. Third, we compare the annual state space curves and we apply clustering and visualization tools to unveil long-range patterns. We use forest fire data for Portugal, covering the years 1980–2003. The territory is divided into two regions (North and South), characterized by different climates and vegetation. The adopted methodology represents a new viewpoint in the context of forest fires, shedding light on a complex phenomenon that needs to be better understood in order to mitigate its devastating consequences, at both economical and environmental levels.

Clinical Outcome and Morphologic Analysis after Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Using the Excluder Endograft

OBJECTIVE: Long-term follow-up after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is very scarce, and doubt remains regarding the durability of these procedures. We designed a retrospective cohort study to assess long-term clinical outcome and morphologic changes in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) treated by EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis (W. L. Gore and Associates, Flagstaff, Ariz). METHODS: From 2000 to 2007, 179 patients underwent EVAR in a tertiary institution. Clinical data were retrieved from a prospective database. All patients treated with the Excluder endoprosthesis were included. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans were retrospectively analyzed preoperatively, at 30 days, and at the last follow-up using dedicated tridimensional reconstruction software. For patients with complications, all remaining CTAs were also analyzed. The primary end point was clinical success. Secondary end points were freedom from reintervention, sac growth, types I and III endoleak, migration, conversion to open repair, and AAA-related death or rupture. Neck dilatation, renal function, and overall survival were also analyzed. RESULTS: Included were 144 patients (88.2% men; mean age, 71.6 years). Aneurysms were ruptured in 4.9%. American Society of Anesthesiologists classification was III/IV in 61.8%. No patients were lost during a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range, 3.1-6.4; maximum, 11.2 years). Two patients died of medical complications ≤ 30 days after EVAR. The estimated primary clinical success rates at 5 and 10 years were 63.5% and 41.1%, and secondary clinical success rates were 78.3% and 58.3%, respectively. Sac growth was observed in 37 of 142 patients (26.1%). Cox regression showed type I endoleak during follow-up (hazard ratio, 3.74; P = .008), original design model (hazard ratio, 3.85; P = .001), and preoperative neck diameter (1.27 per mm increase, P = .006) were determinants of sac growth. Secondary interventions were required in 32 patients (22.5%). The estimated 10-year rate of AAA-related death or rupture was 2.1%. Overall life expectancy after AAA repair was 6.8 years. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis provides a safe and lasting treatment for AAA, despite the need for maintained surveillance and secondary interventions. At up to 11 years, the risk of AAA-related death or postimplantation rupture is remarkably low. The incidences of postimplantation sac growth and secondary intervention were greatly reduced after the introduction of the low-permeability design in 2004.

Safety function analysis in an industrial production process

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Geospatial data harmonization from regional level to european level: a usa case in forest fire data

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

The impact of banks dimension on profitability, sustainability and efficiency: An analysis for the Iberian financial system

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of seismic vulnerability assessment parameters for portuguese vernacular constructions with nonlinear numerical analysis

Considering that vernacular architecture may bear important lessons on hazard mitigation and that well-constructed examples showing traditional seismic resistant features can present far less vulnerability than expected, this study aims at understanding the resisting mechanisms and seismic behavior of vernacular buildings through detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analysis. This paper focuses specifically on a type of vernacular rammed earth constructions found in the Portuguese region of Alentejo. Several rammed earth constructions found in the region were selected and studied in terms of dimensions, architectural layout, structural solutions, construction materials and detailing and, as a result, a reference model was built, which intends to be a simplified representative example of these constructions, gathering the most common characteristics. Different parameters that may affect the seismic response of this type of vernacular constructions have been identified and a numerical parametric study was defined aiming at evaluating and quantifying their influence in the seismic behavior of this type of vernacular buildings. This paper is part of an ongoing research which includes the development of a simplified methodology for assessing the seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings, based on vulnerability index evaluation methods.

A new empirical system for rock slope stability analysis in exploitation stage

An empirical system was developed to obtain a quality index for rock slopes in road infrastructures, named Slope Quality Index (SQI), and it was applied to a set of real slopes.The SQI is supported in nine factors affecting slope stability that contemplate the evaluation of different parameters. Consequently, each factor is classified by the degree of importance and influence by assigned weights. These weights were established through a statistical analysis of replies to a survey that was distributed to several experienced professionals in the field. The proposed SQI varies between1 and 5, corresponding to slopes in very good and very bad condition state, respectively. Besides the advantage linked to a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of slopes, theSQI also allows identifying the most critical factors on the slope stability, which is a fundamental issue for an efficient management of the slope network in the road infrastructure, namely in the planning of conservation and maintenance operations.

Molecular variation at a candidate gene implicated in the regulation of fire ant social behavior

The fire ant Solenopsis invicta and its close relatives display an important social polymorphism involving differences in colony queen number. Colonies are headed by either a single reproductive queen (monogyne form) or multiple queens (polygyne form). This variation in social organization is associated with variation at the gene Gp-9, with monogyne colonies harboring only B-like allelic variants and polygyne colonies always containing b-like variants as well. We describe naturally occurring variation at Gp-9 in fire ants based on 185 full-length sequences, 136 of which were obtained from S. invicta collected over much of its native range. While there is little overall differentiation between most of the numerous alleles observed, a surprising amount is found in the coding regions of the gene, with such substitutions usually causing amino acid replacements. This elevated coding-region variation may result from a lack of negative selection acting to constrain amino acid replacements over much of the protein, different mutation rates or biases in coding and non-coding sequences, negative selection acting with greater strength on non-coding than coding regions, and/or positive selection acting on the protein. Formal selection analyses provide evidence that the latter force played an important role in the basal b-like lineages coincident with the emergence of polygyny. While our data set reveals considerable paraphyly and polyphyly of S. invicta sequences with respect to those of other fire ant species, the b-like alleles of the socially polymorphic species are monophyletic. An expanded analysis of colonies containing alleles of this clade confirmed the invariant link between their presence and expression of polygyny. Finally, our discovery of several unique alleles bearing various combinations of b-like and B-like codons allows us to conclude that no single b-like residue is completely predictive of polygyne behavior and, thus, potentially causally involved in its expression. Rather, all three typical b-like residues appear to be necessary.

Superior outcome of women with stage I/II cutaneous melanoma: pooled analysis of four European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase III trials.

PURPOSE: Several studies observed a female advantage in the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma, for which behavioral factors or an underlying biologic mechanism might be responsible. Using complete and reliable follow-up data from four phase III trials of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Melanoma Group, we explored the female advantage across multiple end points and in relation to other important prognostic indicators. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with localized melanoma were included in EORTC adjuvant treatment trials 18832, 18871, 18952, and 18961 and randomly assigned during the period of 1984 to 2005. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for women compared with men, adjusted for age, Breslow thickness, body site, ulceration, performed lymph node dissection, and treatment. RESULTS: A total of 2,672 patients with stage I/II melanoma were included. Women had a highly consistent and independent advantage in overall survival (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.83), disease-specific survival (adjusted HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.88), time to lymph node metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.96), and time to distant metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.81). Subgroup analysis showed that the female advantage was consistent across all prognostic subgroups (with the possible exception of head and neck melanomas) and in pre- and postmenopausal age groups. CONCLUSION: Women have a consistent and independent relative advantage in all aspects of the progression of localized melanoma of approximately 30%, most likely caused by an underlying biologic sex difference.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma of adults: meta-analysis of individual data

BACKGROUND: Individually, randomised trials have not shown conclusively whether adjuvant chemotherapy benefits adult patients with localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma.METHODS: A quantitative meta-analysis of updated data from individual patients from all available randomised trials was carried out to assess whether adjuvant chemotherapy improves overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and local and distant recurrence-free intervals (RFI) and whether chemotherapy is differentially effective in patients defined by age, sex, disease status at randomisation, disease site, histology, grade, tumour size, extent of resection, and use of radiotherapy.FINDINGS: 1568 patients from 14 trials of doxorubicin-based adjuvant chemotherapy were included (median follow-up 9.4 years). Hazard ratios of 0.73 (95% CI 0.56-0.94, p = 0.016) for local RFI, 0.70 (0.57-0.85, p = 0.0003) for distant RFI, and 0.75 (0.64-0.87, p = 0.0001) for overall recurrence-free survival, correspond to absolute benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy of 6% (95% CI 1-10), 10% (5-15), and 10% (5-15), respectively, at 10 years. For overall survival the hazard ratio of 0.89 (0.76-1.03) was not significant (p = 0.12), but represents an absolute benefit of 4% (1-9) at 10 years. These results were not affected by prespecified changes in the groups of patients analysed. There was no consistent evidence that the relative effect of adjuvant chemotherapy differed for any subgroup of patients for any endpoint. However, the best evidence of an effect of adjuvant chemotherapy for survival was seen in patients with sarcomas of the extremities.INTERPRETATION: The meta-analysis provides evidence that adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy significantly improves the time to local and distant recurrence and overall recurrence-free survival. There is a trend towards improved overall survival.

VeriStrat(®) has a prognostic value for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line: Pooled analysis of SAKK19/05 and NTR528.

BACKGROUND: VeriStrat(®) is a serum proteomic test used to determine whether patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have already received chemotherapy are likely to have good or poor outcomes from treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib. The main objective of our retrospective study was to evaluate the role of VS as a marker of overall survival (OS) in patients treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were pooled from two phase II trials (SAKK19/05 and NTR528). For survival analyses, a log-rank test was used to determine if there was a statistically significant difference between groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of any separation was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 117 patients were analyzed. VeriStrat classified patients into two groups which had a statistically significant difference in duration of OS (p=0.0027, HR=0.480, 95% confidence interval: 0.294-0.784). CONCLUSION: VeriStrat has a prognostic role in patients with advanced, nonsquamous NSCLC treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. Further work is needed to study the predictive role of VeriStrat for erlotinib and bevacizumab in chemotherapy-untreated patients.

Interventions to achieve long-term weight loss in obese older people: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose: the prevalence of obesity is rapidly increasing in older adults. Information is required about what interventions are effective in reducing obesity and influencing health outcomes in this age group. Design: systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources: thirteen databases were searched, earliest date 1966 to December 2008, including Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Cochrane database and EMBASE. Study selection: we included studies with participants�۪ mean age 60 years and mean body mass index 30 kg/m2, with outcomes at a minimum of 1 year. Data were independently extracted by two reviewers and differences resolved by consensus. Data extraction: nine eligible trials were included. Study interventions targeted diet, physical activity and mixed approaches. Populations included patients with coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus and osteoarthritis. Results: meta-analysis (seven studies) demonstrated a modest but significant weight loss of 3.0 kg [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1���0.9] at 1 year. Total cholesterol (four studies) did not show a significant change: ���0.36 mmol/l (95% CI ���0.75 to 0.04). There was no significant change in high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein or triglycerides. In one study, recurrence of hypertension or cardiovascular events was significantly reduced (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.50���0.85). Six-minute walk test did not significantly change in one study. Health-related quality of life significantly improved in one study but did not improve in a second study. Conclusions: although modest weight reductions were observed, there is a lack of high-quality evidence to support the efficacy of weight loss programmes in older people. ��Keywords: obesity, older, weight loss, meta-analysis, elderly, systematic review

Temporal patterns of fire sequences observed in Canton of Ticino (southern Switzerland)

Temporal dynamical analysis in fire sequences recorded from 1969 to 2008 in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) was carried out by using the Allan Factor statistics. The obtained results show the presence of daily periodicities, superimposed to two time-scaling regimes. The daily cycle vanishes for sequences of higher altitude fires, for which a single scaling behaviour is observed.