A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Substituting home care for hospitalization:The role of a quick response service for the elderly

The purpose of the present study was to examine the role of a rapid access home-based service as a means for the elderly to avoid admission to an acute-care hospital. The setting for the study included emergency departments in three acute care hospitals and a home care program in a mid-size Canadian city. Multiple sources of information were obtained to evaluate the service. Hospital emergency department records and home care records were reviewed. Patients who participated in the service (n=96) and physicians and nurses (n =119) who had involvement with the service were surveyed appraising the service in terms of relevance, access, quality and coordination. Study results revealed that elderly women with multiple health problems who lived alone were the most frequent users of the service. The majority of the patients admitted to the service presented with problems of a functional nature that were the result of a fall or mobility problems. The results indicated that the service did avert hospital admissions and facilitated a process by which patients could avoid the intermediate step of hospitalization before placed in a higher level of care or returning to previous levels of functioning. Economic analysis indicated that the value of the service stemmed from the benefits to patients and caregivers rather than from cost savings offered to acute care hospitals.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms

Rationale, aims and objectives: This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. 

Methods: Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. 

Results: Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). 

Conclusions: Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized.

Le suicide comme langage de l'oppression. Ethnographie d'un service d'urgences psychiatriques

Ce travail s'intéresse à la problématique du suicide à partir de l'émergence en Suisse, vers la fin des années '90, de la prévention du suicide comme préoccupation sociale et politique. Au début, ce sont les milieux associatifs qui ont soulevé à cette question en percevant le suicide comme le reflet d'une souffrance d'origine sociale. Par la suite, la prévention du suicide est progressivement devenue une problématique de santé publique appréhendée essentiellement sous le registre médical comme étant le symptôme d'une pathologie psychiatrique. Après une première partie consacrée aux processus sociopolitiques et aux transformations morales touchant le suicide et sa prévention, ce travail approfondit, au travers d'un terrain ethnographique, la prise en charge des personnes présentant des problématiques suicidaires au sein d'un service d'urgences psychiatriques.Malgré une approche se voulant biopsychosociale, l'analyse des discours et des pratiques soignantes montre que la dimension sociale est largement négligée, conduisant à une médicalisation de situations de détresse qui sont principalement de nature sociale. En effet, parmi la population qui fréquente le service, on observe une surreprésentation de personnes issues des classes sociales défavorisées présentant souvent des trajectoires biographiques particulièrement difficiles. Au fil des entretiens avec les patients émerge une analyse voyant la souffrance psychique et la prise en charge psychiatrique comme étant aujourd'hui une manière d'obtenir une reconnaissance sociale et symbolique. Les problématiques suicidaires peuvent ainsi être interprétées comme une forme d'expression, un langage au travers duquel s'exprime la position sociale défavorisée.En adoptant une posture militante construite à partir de la réalité ethnographique, les problématiques suicidaires sont analysées comme l'expression d'une condition d'oppression liée à un cadre social et économique de plus en plus contraignant, à des rapports de pouvoir inégaux ainsi qu'à une lecture individualisante, médicalisante et pathologisante des problèmes sociaux.The present thesis discusses suicide prevention in Switzerland, which emerged as a social and political issue at the end of the '90s. At first, this question was taken up by associations considering suicide as a reflection of social suffering. Thereafter, suicide prevention gradually became a public health matter conceived with a medical approach as a symptom of a psychiatric disease. The first part of this work analyzes the sociopolitical process and moral transformations concerning suicide and its prevention. The second part is based on an ethnographic fieldwork conducted in a psychiatric emergency unit that attends people who have tried to attempt their life or consider doing it. Through the analysis of discourses and practices of the medical staff, this research shows that the social aspect of suicide is widely neglected, leading to a medicalization of social problems. In fact, amongst patients attending the emergency unit, there is an over-­-representation of people from disadvantaged classes having very difficult life stories. Interviews with patients also revealed that psychic suffering and psychiatric treatment is nowadays a way to get social and symbolical recognition. Suicidal problems can be understood as a language expressing a disadvantaged social position. By adopting a militant position constructed from the ethnographic reality, suicide is analyzed as the expression of an oppressed condition related to a more and more restricted social and economic situation, to unequal power relations as well as to an individualistic, medical and pathological interpretation of social problems.

L’annonce d’un décès au service des urgences : une étude qualitative

Nous cherchions à explorer les compétences que les intervenants du service des urgences (SU), des médecins et des infirmières travaillant en équipe dans des rôles complémentaires, ont développées dans la divulgation d‘un décès, pour éclairer l‘apprentissage de cette compétence de « Communicateur ». Nous avons utilisé des entrevues semi-dirigées et un échantillonnage non probabiliste de 8 intervenants. Nous avons analysé les entrevues à l‘aide de méthodes qualitatives reconnues. Le nombre total de présences de nos intervenants à une divulgation est estimé supérieur à 2000. Notre analyse a démontré qu‘ils utilisent une structure de divulgation uniforme. Néanmoins, ils repoussaient l‘utilisation d‘un protocole, parce que jugé trop rigide. La flexibilité et l‘empathie se sont révélées des qualités essentielles pour les intervenants. Nous représentons la visite de la famille comme un épisode de désorganisation/dysfonction qui se résorbe partiellement durant le séjour au SU. Nous proposons un modèle pédagogique qui est basé sur nos résultats.

A Multiagent System for Coordinating Ambulances for Emergency Medical Services

To coordinate ambulances for emergency medical services, a multiagent system uses an auction mechanism based on trust. Results of tests using real data show that this system can efficiently assign ambulances to patients, thereby reducing transportation time. Emergency transportation on specialized vehicles is needed when a person's health is in risk of irreparable damage. A patient can't benefit from sophisticated medical treatments and technologies if she or he isn't placed in a proper healthcare center with the appropriate medical team. For example, strokes are neurological emergencies involving a limited amount of time in which treatment measures are effective

A police state? The Nyasaland emergency and colonial intelligence.

The Nyasaland Emergency in 1959 proved a decisive turning point in the history of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, which from 1953 to 1963 brought together the territories of Northern Rhodesia (Zambia), Southern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi) under a settler-dominated federal government. The British and Nyasaland governments defended the emergency by claiming to have gathered intelligence which showed that the Nyasaland African Congress was preparing a campaign of sabotage and murder. The Devlin Commission, appointed to investigate the emergency, dismissed the evidence of a ‘murder plot’, criticised the Nyasaland government's handling of the Emergency and, notoriously, described Nyasaland as a ‘police state’. This article has two principal aims. First, using the recently declassified papers of the Intelligence and Security Department (ISD) of the Colonial Office, it seeks to provide the first detailed account of what the British government knew of the intelligence relating to the ‘murder plot’ and how they assessed it, prior to the outbreak of the emergency. It demonstrates that officials in the ISD and members of the Security Service adopted a far more cautious attitude towards the intelligence than did Conservative ministers, and had greater qualms about allowing it into the public domain to justify government policy. Second, the article examines the implications of Devlin's use of the phrase ‘police state’ for Nyasaland and for the late colonial state in general. It contrasts Devlin's use of the term with that of security experts in the ISD, who routinely applied it to policing systems that diverged from their own preferred model. Hence, whereas Devlin compared policing in Nyasaland unfavourably with that in Southern Rhodesia, implying, ironically, that Nyasaland was ‘under-policed’ (because there were fewer police per head of population in Nyasaland than in Southern Rhodesia), the ISD regarded the intensive system of policing operated by the British South Africa Police in Southern Rhodesia as characteristic of a ‘police state’. The article suggests that the frequent use of the term ‘police state’ was indicative of broader anxieties about what Britain's legacy would be for the post-independence African state.

The 193 call center, a meaningful public service!

This article is the first part of an on-going ergonomic work analysis with the emergency services call center set up by the Fire Department of the Military Police of Sao Paulo. The final objective of the research is to identify the prescribed task, the real work executed and strategies used by workers to meet the demands of the job. Starting by identifying the tasks and activities developed, this article analyzes the work of the emergency services call center which is of vital importance to the organizational structure, since it is the start point for the process that results in fulfilling the corporation's mission.

Accessibility and demand at an Emergency Care Unit: the user's perspective

AIM: To analyze the search for Emergency Care (EC) in the Western Health District of Ribeirão Preto (São Paulo), in order to identify the reasons why users turn to these services in situations that are not characterized as urgencies and emergencies. METHODS: A qualitative and descriptive study was undertaken. A guiding script was applied to 23 EC users, addressing questions related to health service accessibility and welcoming, problem solving, reason to visit the EC and care comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The subjects reported that, at the Primary Health Care services, receiving care and scheduling consultations took a long time and that the opening hours of these services coincide with their work hours. At the EC service, access to technologies and medicines was easier. CONCLUSION: Primary health care services have been unable to turn into the entry door to the health system, being replaced by emergency services, putting a significant strain on these services' capacity.

Do we need new personalized emergency telehealth solutions? A survey of 100 emergency department patients and a first report of the swiss limmex emergency wristwatch: an original study

Development of new personal mobile and wireless devices for healthcare has become essential due to our aging population characterized by constant rise in chronic diseases that consequently require a complex treatment and close monitoring. Personal telehealth devices allow patients to adequately receive their appropriate treatment, followup with their doctors, and report any emergency without the need of the presence of any caregivers with them thus increasing their quality of life in a cost-effective fashion. This paper includes a brief overview of personal telehealth systems, a survey of 100 consecutive ED patients aged >65 years, and introduces "Limmex" a new GSM based technology packaged in a wristwatch. Limmex can by a push of a button initiate multiple emergency call and establish mobile communication between the patient and a preselected person, institution, or a search and rescue service. To the best of our knowledge, Limmex is the first of its kind worldwide.

Homeless access to dental health care: Creation of a dental service model

This project involved developing a model for planning a dental emergency treatment center that could function as an embedded component of a shelter for the homeless population. The dental services provided by such a clinic should include treatment for tooth pain, dental caries or cavities, chipped or broken teeth, broken partials, abscessed teeth, emergency cleanings, periodontal disease or gum disease and fillings. These are the dental services that are most often sought by homeless people in hospital emergency rooms.^ The underlying assumption for this project was that the oral health needs of the homeless community can most effectively be addressed by implementing small dental clinics in existing facilities that provide shelter and other services for this population. The model described in this project identifies oral health care services that would be provided by the clinic, facility (physical plant) requirements and associated infrastructure to operate an embedded dental clinic, methods for obtaining funding, strategies of recruiting dental professionals to staff the facility, and methods to assess the outcomes of the embedded clinic strategy. As an example, this project describes a strategy for developing such an embedded clinic at San Antonio Metropolitan Ministries SAMM shelter based on recommendations from community health care leaders, managers of homeless shelters, members of the homeless community and dental professionals^

Family Reunification among Two Groups of Runaway Adolescents Utilizing Emergency Shelters

Limited research has addressed reunification of runaway youths with their families following an emergency shelter stay; however, recent studies have shown that those who reunify with their families following a shelter stay have more positive outcomes than those relocated to other residences. This study evaluated differences between two samples of runaway youth utilizing youth emergency shelters in New York (n = 155) and Texas (n = 195) and identified factors associated with reunification among these two groups of adolescents. Less than half (43.7%) of the youths were reunited with their families. Among New York runaway youths, those who had lived primarily with someone other than a parent before shelter admission, were physically abused, or neglected were less likely to return home. Among youths admitted to emergency shelter services in Texas, those with longer shelter stays, living primarily with someone other than a parent before shelter admission, or being pregnant or a parent were less likely to reunify. This study provides valuable information concerning family reunification following shelter service use; however, additional research is needed to delineate youth, family, and shelter system factors that distinguish successful from unsuccessful reunification over an extended period of time.

Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.

SERVICE NEEDS FORECASTING: An Approach for the Motor Industry Using Analogies with Medical ER Management Models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, motor makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper ratify a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER