957 resultados para discrete choice theory


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Den här uppsatsen behandlar det fria skolvalet ur ett mångfalds- och segregationsperspektiv där yrkesverksamma högstadielärare har intervjuats angående hur de upplever att det fria skolvalet påverkar den svenska skolan ur ett segregations- och mångfaldsperspektiv. Studien har varit kvalitativ och har använt sig av intervjuer som empirisk insamlingsmetod. Empirin har presenterats för att sedan analyseras med hjälp av två analysverktyg: Rational Choice Theory och Strukturalism. Lärarna upplevde det fria skolvalet som en påverkansfaktor utifrån både ett segregations- och mångfaldsperspektiv, där det fria skolvalet inte enbart har varit negativt.

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From the end of the 80s, the Brazilian higher education experience strong growth, coming from the private sector, which would intensify further in the late 90th Higher education has become a lucrative business. With a drop in the number of students entering and strong competition, the number of idle places in private institutions of higher education reached 49.5% in 2004. That same year, by Measure, was the University for All Program (PROUNI) program, to include high school students from public higher education, offering scholarships to those students in private HEIs. In exchange, the IES gain tax exemption. The objective of this research is to investigate the game of interest occurred in the formulation of this program and identify the model and the political game and has led to the creation of PROUNI, analyzing the process occurred since the wording of a bill, the issue of Measure Law and that the legitimacy PROUNI, with the most important changes made initial model. Since the first draft of the Law to the final Act, the PROUNI was disfigured in its main points, as the percentage of stock for paying students, the process of selection of stock and bond of the IES program. Throughout the process of creating the program, it is quite clear the performance of the institutions representing the private higher education. As reference for the analysis was based on Rational Choice Theory of Political Science. The basic argument of the methods based on rational choice is the maximization of the benefit will be the main motivation of individuals, but they can give that your goals can be achieved more effectively through institutional action and thereby discover that their conduct is shaped by institutions. Thus, individuals rationally choose to get to a certain extent constrained to join in certain institutions, whether voluntarily or not. The PROUNI was submitted by government and public policy covered by the mystical aura of the discourse of social justice and economic development, as in higher education includes a stratum of people who would not have access to the university, due to restrictions in the supply network public higher education. However, the greatest benefit from the program are the private HEIs, which through a difficult time in a scenario marked by high competition and idleness of nearly half of the vacancies offered. The PROUNI became a program that prioritizes access and not the residence of the student to higher education. More serious than a supporting program for students Fellows is a program supporting the institutions of private education

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Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.

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This paper aims to conceptualise trafficking in human beings (THB) as an organised crime by drawing on the rational choice theory. Utilising crime scripting principles, it proposes trafficking schematics to capture and visualise THB in its entirety. Stemming from its transnational nature and varying conceptualisations, combatting THB faces challenges, such as the lack of harmonisation of policy instruments and differing stakeholder agendas. To mitigate these challenges, this paper proposes trafficking schematics. Their core lies in the modelling of THB constituent elements, including stages and their sequence, key actors and relationships, and financial modus operandi. Trafficking schematics may therefore contribute to addressing THB in a holistic, dynamic and integrated way, by enriching stakeholders’ understanding of the phenomenon and facilitating collaboration to address it. The paper contributes to theory and practice by drawing up a model of the procedural, human, logistical and environmental elements of THB that may be viewed as an instrument of public value creation.

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Four Ss were run in a visual span of apprehension experiment to determine whether second choices made following incorrect first responses are at the chance level, as implied by various high threshold models proposed for this situation. The relationships between response biases on first and second choices, and between first choice biases on trials with two or three possible responses, were also examined in terms of Luce's (1959) choice theory. The results were: (a) second choice performance in this task appears to be determined by response bias alone, i.e., second choices were at the chance level; (b)first and second choice response biases were not related according to Luce's choice axiom; and (c) the choice axiom predicted with reasonable accuracy the relationships between first choice response biases corresponding to trials with different numbers of possible response alternatives. © 1967 Psychonomic Society, Inc.

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Este artículo de investigación científica y tecnológica estudia la percepción de seguridad en el uso de puentes peatonales, empleando un enfoque sustentado en dos campos principales: el microeconómico y el psicológico. El trabajo hace la estimación simultánea de un modelo híbrido de elección y variables latentes con datos de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas, encontrando mejor ajuste que un modelo mixto de referencia, lo que indica que la percepción de seguridad determina el comportamiento de los peatones cuando se enfrentan a la decisión de usar o no un puente peatonal. Se encontró que el sexo, la edad y el nivel de estudios son atributos que inciden en la percepción de seguridad. El modelo calibrado sugiere varias estrategias para aumentar el uso de puentes peatonales que son discutidas, encontrando que el uso de barreras ocasiona una pérdida de utilidad, en los peatones, que debería ser estudiada como extensión del presente trabajo.

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This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

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From the end of the 80s, the Brazilian higher education experience strong growth, coming from the private sector, which would intensify further in the late 90th Higher education has become a lucrative business. With a drop in the number of students entering and strong competition, the number of idle places in private institutions of higher education reached 49.5% in 2004. That same year, by Measure, was the University for All Program (PROUNI) program, to include high school students from public higher education, offering scholarships to those students in private HEIs. In exchange, the IES gain tax exemption. The objective of this research is to investigate the game of interest occurred in the formulation of this program and identify the model and the political game and has led to the creation of PROUNI, analyzing the process occurred since the wording of a bill, the issue of Measure Law and that the legitimacy PROUNI, with the most important changes made initial model. Since the first draft of the Law to the final Act, the PROUNI was disfigured in its main points, as the percentage of stock for paying students, the process of selection of stock and bond of the IES program. Throughout the process of creating the program, it is quite clear the performance of the institutions representing the private higher education. As reference for the analysis was based on Rational Choice Theory of Political Science. The basic argument of the methods based on rational choice is the maximization of the benefit will be the main motivation of individuals, but they can give that your goals can be achieved more effectively through institutional action and thereby discover that their conduct is shaped by institutions. Thus, individuals rationally choose to get to a certain extent constrained to join in certain institutions, whether voluntarily or not. The PROUNI was submitted by government and public policy covered by the mystical aura of the discourse of social justice and economic development, as in higher education includes a stratum of people who would not have access to the university, due to restrictions in the supply network public higher education. However, the greatest benefit from the program are the private HEIs, which through a difficult time in a scenario marked by high competition and idleness of nearly half of the vacancies offered. The PROUNI became a program that prioritizes access and not the residence of the student to higher education. More serious than a supporting program for students Fellows is a program supporting the institutions of private education

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This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.

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Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

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Hasta hace casi una década, la guerra contra el terrorismo fue una lucha solitaria de los Estados. Actualmente y debido a las implicaciones globales de este fenómeno, las acciones contra este flagelo han adquirido connotación internacional. Gran parte de los países miembros de las Naciones Unidas han acogido esta guerra –contra un enemigo común, pero indefinido- como un compromiso político en favor de la paz y seguridad internacional. La producción constante de instrumentos internacionales que condenan el terrorismo y que exigen tomar medidas para combatirlo, demuestran que esa intención política originaria se ha decantado en el ordenamiento internacional como una obligación autónoma, de carácter consuetudinario; que hace que actualmente no haya país en el mundo que pueda excusarse de combatir al terrorismo (interno o transnacional) independientemente de las justificaciones que se puedan aludir para el no cumplimiento.

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Los estudios de las prácticas sociales se han abordado desde diversas perspectivas. Algunas se enfocan principalmente en el rol de las instituciones, estructuras o de las ideologías para la comprensión de las prácticas sociales; mientras que otras, de manera opuesta, se han enfocado en el estudio de las acciones de los individuos. La presente investigación se afilia a esta segunda perspectiva del estudio social y a partir de la misma estudia un fenómeno social particular, el cual es, el fenómeno de la conversión religiosa. A partir del estudio de las acciones de los individuos y, principalmente, de las argumentaciones y justificaciones que dan de la misma, el presente documento busca dar cuenta de los motivos que fundamentan e impulsan la conversión y el cambio radical dentro del sistema de creencias del Individuo.

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This dissertation focuses on how the design of the EU asylum allocation system, the system that allocates the EU’s asylum duties to its member states, relates to the development of asylum crises. The current EU asylum allocation system, the Dublin system, has in the literature frequently been blamed as an important factor that contributed to the events that occurred during the 2015/2016 EU Asylum Crisis. In the first part of this dissertation, I use a Law & Economics methodology based on rational choice theory to study how the Dublin system creates behavioural incentives for both asylum seekers and member states and how this relates to the events during the 2015/2016 EU Asylum Crisis. In the second part, I analyse how behavioural incentives for asylum seekers and member states would change if the EU would replace the Dublin system with a so-called (tradable) quota system. By comparing the outcomes of the first and the second part of the dissertation I make some normative recommendations on desirable features for an EU asylum allocation system that provides better incentives for asylum seekers and member states.

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A theory of network-entrepreneurs or "spin-off system" is presented in this paper for the creation of firms based on the community’s social governance. It is argued that firm’s capacity for accumulation depends on the presence of employees belonging to the same social/ethnic group with expectations of "inheriting" the firm and becoming entrepreneurs once they have been selected for their merits and loyalty towards their patrons. Such accumulation is possible because of the credibility of the patrons’ promises of supporting newcomers due to high social cohesion and specific social norms prevailing in the community. This theory is exemplified through the case of the Barcelonnettes, a group of immigrants from the Alps in the South of France (Provence) who came to Mexico in the XIX Century.