Returns to vocational education in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the recovering from the financial crisis: Equity returns of the banking sector

This paper analyses, through a dynamic panel data model, the impact of the Financial and the European Debt crisis on the equity returns of the banking system. The model is also extended to specifically investigate the impact on countries who received rescue packages. The sample under analysis considers eleven countries from January 2006 to June 2013. The main conclusion is that there was in fact a structural change in banks’ excess returns due to the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis, when stock markets were still recovering from the Financial Crisis of 2008.

Empirical evidences on voluntary delisting phenomenon

The paper studies what drives firms to voluntary delist from capital markets and what differs in firms’ behavior and fundamentals between public-to-private transactions and M&A deals with listed corporations. Moreover, I study the relationship between ownership percentage in controlling shareholders’ hands and cumulative returns around the delisting public announcement. I perform my tests both for the Italian and the US markets and I compare the findings to better understand how the phenomenon works in these different institutional environments. Consistent with my expectations, I find that the likelihood of delisting is mainly related to size, underperformance and undervaluation, while shareholders are more rewarded when their companies are involved in PTP transactions than in M&As with public firms.

Abnormal spontaneous interleukin 8 receptor expression: a brief report of two cases

Interleukin 8 (CXCL8) is an autocrine chemokine specific for the chemoattraction and activation of granulocytes, NKT cells and T lymphocytes. Patients with tuberculosis and latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection were assessed for the spontaneous expression of CXCR1 (CD128) and CXCR2 on lymphocytes and monocytes. Compared with ex vivo profiles, increased spontaneous CXCR2 expression and normal CXCR1 expression were found on lymphocytes in two out of 59 individuals. Monocytes showed normal ex vivo profiles for both receptors. After stimulation with purified protein derivative, the in vitro levels of CXCL8 were below the median levels of all patients with prior tuberculosis. Spontaneous CXCR2 modulation did not cause notable variation in the in vitro levels of CXCL8.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Testing for tail breaks in currency returns

In this work project we study the tail properties of currency returns and analyze whether changes in the tail indices of these series have occurred over time as a consequence of turbulent periods. Our analysis is based on the methods introduced by Quintos, Fan and Phillips (2001), Candelon and Straetmans (2006, 2013), and their extensions. Specifically, considering a sample of daily data from December 31, 1993 to February 13, 2015 we apply the recursive test in calendar time (forward test) and in reverse calendar time (backward test) and indeed detect falls and rises in the tail indices, signifying increases and decreases in the probability of extreme events.

Bias in returns to tenure when firm wages and employment comove: A quantitative assessment and solution

It is well known that, unless worker-firm match quality is controlled for, returns to firm tenure (RTT) estimated directly via reduced form wage (Mincer) equations will be biased. In this paper we show that even if match quality is properly controlled for there is a further pervasive source of bias, namely the co-movement of firm employment and firm wages. In a simple mechanical model where human capital is absent and separation is exogenous we show that positively covarying shocks (either aggregate or firm level) to firms employment and wages cause downward bias in OLS regression estimates of RTT. We show that the long established procedures for dealing with "traditional" RTT bias do not circumvent the additional problem we have identified. We argue that if a reduced form estimation of RTT is undertaken, firm-year fixed effects must be added in order to eliminate this bias. Estimates from two large panel datasets from Portugal and Germany show that the bias is empirically important. Adding firm-year fixed effects to the regression increases estimates of RTT in the two respective countries by between 3.5% and 4.5% of wages at 20 years of tenure over 80% (50%) of the estimated RTT level itself. The results extend to tenure correlates used in macroeconomics such as the minimum unemployment rate since joining the firm. Adding firm-year fixed effects changes estimates of these effects also.

ABNORMAL SPERMATHECAE NUMBERS IN PERUVIAN SANDFLIES (DIPTERA: PSYSCHODIDAE)

We report and illustrate two abnormal spermatheca numbers found in Peruvian sandflies, a supernumerary spermatheca in Lutzomyia cernerai and the absence of one spermatheca in L. amazonensis.

Abnormal interactions between context, memory structure, and mood in schizophrenia: an ERP investigation

This study used event-related potentials to examine interactions between mood, sentence context, and semantic memory structure in schizophrenia. Seventeen male chronic schizophrenia and 15 healthy control subjects read sentence pairs after positive, negative, or neutral mood induction. Sentences ended with expected words (EW), within-category violations (WCV), or between-category violations (BCV). Across all moods, patients showed sensitivity to context indexed by reduced N400 to EW relative to both WCV and BCV. However, they did not show sensitivity to the semantic memory structure. N400 abnormalities were particularly enhanced under a negative mood in schizophrenia. These findings suggest abnormal interactions between mood, context processing, and connections within semantic memory in schizophrenia, and a specific role of negative mood in modulating semantic processes in this disease.

Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: evidence from emerging markets

We test the predictive ability of the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labour income, cay, for both future equity and housing risk premia in emerging market economies. Using quarterly data for 31 markets, our country-level evidence shows that forecasting power of cay vis-à-vis stock returns is high for Brazil, China, Colombia, Israel, Korea, Latvia and Malaysia. As for housing returns, the empirical evidence suggests that financial and housing assets are perceived as complements in the case of Chile, Russia, South Africa and Thailand, and as substitutes in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan. Using a panel econometric framework, we find that the cross-country heterogeneity observed in asset return predictability does not accrue to regional location, but can be attributed to differences in the degree of equity market development and in the level of income.

Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns in the French stock market

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Lower NPAS3 expression during the later stages of abnormal lung development in rat congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Purpose Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is characterized by a developmental defect in the diaphragm, pulmonary hypoplasia and pulmonary hypertension. NPAS3 is a PAS domain transcription factor regulating Drosophila tracheogenesis. NPAS3 null mice develop pulmonary hypoplasia in utero and die after birth due to respiratory failure. We aimed to evaluate NPAS3 expres- sion during normal and abnormal lung development due to CDH. Methods CDH was induced by administering 100 mg/ml nitrofen to time-pregnant dams on embryonic day (E) 9 of gestation. Lungs were isolated on E15, E18 and E21 and NPAS3 localization was determined by immunohisto- chemistry and quantified using Western blotting. Results We found that only E21 hypoplastic CDH lungs have reduced expression of NPAS3 in the terminal sac- cules. Western blotting confirmed the down-regulation of NPAS3 protein in the nitrofen-induced hypoplastic lungs. Conclusions We demonstrate for the first time that ni- trofen-induced hypoplastic CDH lungs have reduced NPAS3 expression in the terminal saccules during the later stages of abnormal lung development. Our findings suggest that NPAS3 is associated with pulmonary hypoplasia in CDH.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"