Asset pricing when risk sharing is limited by default: a theoretical framework

We study the asset pricing implications of an endowment economy when agents can default on contracts that would leave them otherwise worse off. We specialize and extend the environment studied by Kocherlakota (1995) and Kehoe and Levine (1993) to make it comparable to standard studies of asset pricillg. We completely charactize efficient allocations for several special cases. We illtroduce a competitive equilibrium with complete markets alld with elldogellous solvency constraints. These solvellcy constraints are such as to prevent default -at the cost of reduced risk sharing. We show a version of the classical welfare theorems for this equilibrium definition. We characterize the pricing kernel, alld compare it with the one for economies without participation constraints : interest rates are lower and risk premia can be bigger depending on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Quantitative examples show that for reasonable parameter values the relevant marginal rates of substitution fali within the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds.

Asset float and speculative bubbles

We model the relationship between ftoat (the tradeable shares of an asset) and stock price bubbles. Investors trade a stock that initiaUy has a limited ftoat because of insider lock-up restrictions but the tradeable shares of which increase over time as these restrictions expire. A speculative bubble arises because investors, with heterogeneous beliefs due to overconfidence and facing short-sales constraints, anticipate the option to reseU the stock to buyers with even higher valuations. With limited risk absorption capacity, this resale option depends on ftoat as investors anticipate the change in asset supply over time and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Our model yields implications consistent with the behavior of internet stock prices during the late nineties, such as the bubble, share turnover and volatility decreasing with ftoat and stock prices tending to drop on the lock-up expiration date though it is known to aU in advance.

Temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs under asset market segmentation

This paper analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. Differently than previous papers, however, here we assume that only a fraction of households participates in asset market transactions. With this asset market segmentation assumption, the effects of temporary programs on welfare may change drastically. Households with access to the bonds market are able to protect themselves better from the changes in the inflation rate – although at the cost of a distortion in their consumption path. As a consequence, they may decrease their inflation tax burden – which would increase for the other group of households. By the other side, when these agents that lack the access to the asset markets are credit constrained, they may welcome the program, since the government Is temporally reducing the inflation tax they have to pay. The temporary program could end up benefiting both groups, what could help to understand their popularity.

Optimal provision of implicit and explicit incentives in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of the fiow of funds as an implicit incetive provided by investors to portfolio managers in a two-period relationship. We show that the fiow of funds is a powerful incentive in an asset management contract. We build a binomial moral hazard model to explain the main trade-ofIs in the relationship between fiow, fees and performance. The main assumption is that efIort depend" on the combination of implicit and explicit incentives while the probability distrioutioll function of returns depends on efIort. In the case of full commitment, the investor's relevant trade-ofI is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce efIort in the first período The more concerned the investor is with today's payoff. the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the following periods. That is. in the second period, the investor penalizes observed low returns by withdrawing resources from non-performing portfolio managers. Besides, he pays performance fee when the observed excess return is positive. When commitment is not a plausible hypothesis, we consider that the investor also learns some symmetríc and imperfect information about the ability of the manager to generate positive excess returno In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as efIort choices exerted by the portfolio manager. We show that implicit incentives can explain the fiow-performance relationship and, conversely, endogenous expected return determines incentives provision and define their optimal leveIs. We provide a numerical solution in Matlab that characterize these results.

Revamping asset quality to maximize income in office markets

We use a unique dataset of c. 2200 commercial towers located in the city of Sao Paulo from 2005:Q3 to 2014:Q3 to study the relationship between asset quality and potential income in different niches of the office market. Our evidence suggests a rent premium in the market for larger office space (corporate) and that building quality is more relevant in this segment. We hypothesize such difference is due to larger competition and commoditization in the market for smaller office space (office) as income in this segment tends to be insensible to different levels of asset quality when we control for spatial variation. We also find that rent premiums associated with building class are monotonically increasing, but not strictly positive across certain quality thresholds. Thus, landlords and developers should take into consideration the market niche and acceptable target building class levels when designing their investment plans in order to maximize income .

Options listing and the volatility of the underlying asset: a study on the derivative market function

Os mercados de derivativos são vistos com muita desconfiança por inúmeras pessoas. O trabalho analisa o efeito da introdução de opções sobre ações no mercado brasileiro buscando identificar uma outra justificativa para a existência destes mercados: a alteração no nível de risco dos ativos objetos destas opções. A evidência empírica encontrada neste mercado está de acordo com os resultados obtidos em outros mercados - a introdução de opções é benéfica para o investidor posto que reduz a volatilidade do ativo objeto. Existe também uma tênue indicação de que a volatilidade se torna mais estocástica com a introdução das opções.

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts

Natal como destino turístico : um estudo das imagens (re)veladas pela mídia, pelos turistas e suas implicações educacionais e culturais

This thesis is a result of a research on Natal/RN as a tourist destination. We understand that cities are chosen as tourist destinations beyond its cartographic localization, from other dimensions of meanings that, in its set, constitute images. These images are, probably, very different of the images constructed by native and resident populations, who possess relations of identity with the place. The knowledge of the meanings that others attribute to this city as tourist destination, bring us near to the symbolic bonds established by individuals or social groups on the act of their choices, as well as bring us near to the interaction process city-tourists where the expectations are confirmed or not. The images divulgated by the media also participate of the complex formation of the tourist image that is being constructed and available for the different public, in different social contexts. The tourism constitutes a symbolic asset of the modern society, being considered by the studious, as one of the most expressive phenomena of the modernity, for involving each year displacement and the interaction of thousand of people of different cultures in the entire world. All this people s mobilization points to practical social related to personal motivations, to the entailed desired to the idea to travel and to exceed borders. It is already consensus that tourism is a phenomenon of economic growth, generating jobs, income, professional, qualification, bringing improvements for the host cities. Since 1995, in Brazil, the tourism as a sector of the economy, passed to be considered one of the national priorities, and in this perspective, the national politics of the tourism invested in infrastructure of Brazilian cities with high tourist potential, objecting to increase the flows of Brazilian and foreign tourists. Owing to this fact, the country still invests in programs of tourist marketing, mainly divulging the images of the natural beauties of Brazil abroad. And for Brazilians, the campaigns appeal to rescue the feeling to be Brazilian, associating the idea to travel and know its country. Natal city possesses an excellent positioning in the tourist marketing, being predominantly divulgated in national and international level, for its naturalistic singularity, where the images of its natural enchantments as warm water beaches, white dunes, warm weather, constant breeze and an always blue sky are shown as the favorite scene on this city. From what was viewed above that the choice of a tourist destination articulates from a determined imaginary of a place, already constructed or in process of construction, we consider the knowledge of this imaginary a basic learning for the population of the city and especially, for educators, in the formation of professionals in this area and for tourism managers, elaborators of public politics. Based on this estimative, we developed this research that had as a general objective to identify the images that illustrate Natal city as a tourist destination - our objective of study, particularly the meanings and senses attributed by the tourist marketing (hotel s folders) and by the tourists that visited the city during this study. The discussions and reflections that had guided this research had been given from the theoretical link between imaginary and social representation, also considering some interfaces between the fields of communication and symbol. From the studied authors, Baczko (1985) clarifies that the study of social imaginary is directed for the mechanisms and structures of the social life, especially for the intervention accomplishes and efficient of the representations and symbols in the practical collectives, as well as in its direction and orientation . Following this same thought, Moscovici (1978) says that the social representation are produced in communicational and symbolic contexts, and these representations once that already constituted circulate socially as almost tangible entities. Based on this fundament and on the analyze of Barthes (1990), particularly in the approach given to the reading of photographic image, we could observe on hotel s folders that each page evidences senses and meanings of functionality of internal and external spaces, pointing to the way of leisure offered by the keepers of city which is the hotels. About, the leisure that they offer, it is directed to young public, giving meaning to the young myth of personalized leisure tourism on children, young and adults images. The image about security that hotels offer and the singular image of Natal city as a paradise place, provide an idealization of pleasure through the sun, dunes, and beaches and also due to the hospitability of the natives who are assigned as educated . For the tourist that participated on this research, Natal city is tied only by the imaginary of leisure and nature which constitute the emotional link of the relation media-city-tourist. And with such force and fullness of directions the city discloses without tensions and contradictions as a place protected by a mythical and sacred aura. The study also demonstrates us that the potiguar culture remains (almost) forgotten, due to the silenced in this imaginary. In this perspective, we highlight that this culture silence is very close related to the disvalue of education in its general meaning. We defend that the imaginary apprehended constitutes a new reading and a new looking and understanding the tourist reality that comes historically consolidating in this city. In this direction, we glimpse that this study and its future dismemberments can collaborate with the process of rescue the cultural values of the potiguar people, in the way that the meaning of tourist may be redefined, and the tourist image of the city can be also disclosed for its identities particularities of its culture

Asset accumulation by the middle class and the poor in Latin America: political economy and governance dimensions

Includes bibliography

Asset productivity at container terminals in Latin America and the Caribbean: 2005-2013

This issue of the FAL Bulletin shows productivity trends at container terminals in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period from 2005 to 2013, comparing them to the trend of earlier years (2000 to 2004). One of the conclusions of the study is that most terminals in the region have improved their quay productivity in recent years, although there are large differences between the three container terminal size categories analysed. However, the author identifies a number of challenges still to be met at the region’s ports.

Aspectos da cultura rural tradicional na Reforma Agrária: estudo nos assentamentos de Presidente Venceslau, SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Asset management of wastewater networks

Asset Management (AM) is a set of procedures operable at the strategic-tacticaloperational level, for the management of the physical asset’s performance, associated risks and costs within its whole life-cycle. AM combines the engineering, managerial and informatics points of view. In addition to internal drivers, AM is driven by the demands of customers (social pull) and regulators (environmental mandates and economic considerations). AM can follow either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Considering rehabilitation planning at the bottom-up level, the main issue would be to rehabilitate the right pipe at the right time with the right technique. Finding the right pipe may be possible and practicable, but determining the timeliness of the rehabilitation and the choice of the techniques adopted to rehabilitate is a bit abstruse. It is a truism that rehabilitating an asset too early is unwise, just as doing it late may have entailed extra expenses en route, in addition to the cost of the exercise of rehabilitation per se. One is confronted with a typical ‘Hamlet-isque dilemma’ – ‘to repair or not to repair’; or put in another way, ‘to replace or not to replace’. The decision in this case is governed by three factors, not necessarily interrelated – quality of customer service, costs and budget in the life cycle of the asset in question. The goal of replacement planning is to find the juncture in the asset’s life cycle where the cost of replacement is balanced by the rising maintenance costs and the declining level of service. System maintenance aims at improving performance and maintaining the asset in good working condition for as long as possible. Effective planning is used to target maintenance activities to meet these goals and minimize costly exigencies. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a process-model for asset replacement planning. The aim of the model is to determine the optimal pipe replacement year by comparing, temporally, the annual operating and maintenance costs of the existing asset and the annuity of the investment in a new equivalent pipe, at the best market price. It is proposed that risk cost provide an appropriate framework to decide the balance between investment for replacing or operational expenditures for maintaining an asset. The model describes a practical approach to estimate when an asset should be replaced. A comprehensive list of criteria to be considered is outlined, the main criteria being a visà- vis between maintenance and replacement expenditures. The costs to maintain the assets should be described by a cost function related to the asset type, the risks to the safety of people and property owing to declining condition of asset, and the predicted frequency of failures. The cost functions reflect the condition of the existing asset at the time the decision to maintain or replace is taken: age, level of deterioration, risk of failure. The process model is applied in the wastewater network of Oslo, the capital city of Norway, and uses available real-world information to forecast life-cycle costs of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and support infrastructure management decisions. The case study provides an insight into the various definitions of ‘asset lifetime’ – service life, economic life and physical life. The results recommend that one common value for lifetime should not be applied to the all the pipelines in the stock for investment planning in the long-term period; rather it would be wiser to define different values for different cohorts of pipelines to reduce the uncertainties associated with generalisations for simplification. It is envisaged that more criteria the municipality is able to include, to estimate maintenance costs for the existing assets, the more precise will the estimation of the expected service life be. The ability to include social costs enables to compute the asset life, not only based on its physical characterisation, but also on the sensitivity of network areas to social impact of failures. The type of economic analysis is very sensitive to model parameters that are difficult to determine accurately. The main value of this approach is the effort to demonstrate that it is possible to include, in decision-making, factors as the cost of the risk associated with a decline in level of performance, the level of this deterioration and the asset’s depreciation rate, without looking at age as the sole criterion for making decisions regarding replacements.

Le scelte di investimento dei fondi pensioni italiani: un’analisi degli asset immobiliari

Il lavoro persegue l’obiettivo generale di indagare sulle scelte di investimento dei fondi pensione italiani. Per giungere al suddetto obiettivo il lavoro si articola in quattro capitoli principali corredati da premessa e conclusioni. Il primo capitolo si preoccupa di analizzare in quale modo le scelte operate dal legislatore italiano abbiano influenzato e influenzino le politiche di investimento dei fondi pensione. E’ indubbio, infatti, che l’intervento del legislatore abbia un forte ascendente sull’operatività dei fondi e possa limitarne o, viceversa, agevolarne l’attività. Alla luce di queste considerazioni, il secondo capitolo mira ad analizzare nel concreto l’influenza delle scelte operate dal legislatore sullo sviluppo del mercato dei fondi pensione italiani. In sostanza, l’obiettivo è quello di fornire informazioni circa il mercato italiano dei fondi pensione sviluppatosi in conseguenza alla normativa testé presentata. Il successivo capitolo, il terzo, propone un’analisi della letteratura che, nel contesto nazionale ed internazionale, ha analizzato la tematica dei fondi pensione. Più nel dettaglio, si propone una disamina dei riferimenti letterari che, affrontando il problema della gestione finanziaria dei fondi pensione, trattano delle politiche e delle scelte di investimento operate da questi. Il quarto capitolo riguarda un’analisi empirica mirata ad analizzare le politiche di investimento dei fondi pensione, in particolare quelle relative agli investimenti alternativi e soprattutto, tra questi, quelli immobiliari. L’obiettivo generale perseguito è quello di analizzare la composizione del patrimonio dei fondi appartenenti al campione considerato e ricavarne indicazioni circa le scelte manageriali operate dai fondi, nonché trarre indicazioni circa lo spazio riservato e/o riservabile alle asset class alternative, soprattutto a quelle di tipo immobiliare. Si evidenzia, infatti, che la verifica presentata riguarda prevalentemente gli investimenti immobiliari che rappresentano nella realtà italiana l’alternative class maggiormente diffusa. L’analisi si concentra, anche se in modo inferiore e con un approccio quasi esclusivamente qualitativo, su altre asset class alternative (hedge fund e private equity). Si precisa, inoltre, che la volontà di focalizzare la verifica sugli alternative investment limita l’analisi ai soli fondi pensione preesistenti che, ad oggi, rappresentano l’unica categoria alla quale è consentito effettuare investimenti di tipo alternativo. A differenza dei fondi di nuova generazione, tali fondi, infatti, non sono sottoposti a limitazioni nell’attività di investimento e, almeno in linea teorica, essi possono optare senza alcuna restrizione per l’asset allocation ritenuta più appropriata Tre sono le domande di ricerca a cui l’analisi proposta mira a dare risposta: Quale è la dimensione e la composizione del portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? Quale è la dimensione e la tipologia di investimento immobiliare all’interno del portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? Esiste uno “spazio” ulteriore per gli investimenti immobiliari e/o per altri alternative investment nel portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? L’analisi è condotta su un campione di dieci fondi preesistenti, che rappresenta il 60% dell’universo di riferimento (dei 29 fondi pensione preesistenti che investono in immobiliare) e la metodologia utilizzata è quella della case study. Le dieci case study, una per ogni fondo preesistente analizzato, sono condotte e presentate secondo uno schema quanto più standard e si basano su varie tipologie di informazioni reperite da tre differenti fonti. 2 La prima fonte informativa utilizzata è rappresentata dai bilanci o rendiconti annuali dei fondi analizzati. A questi si aggiungono i risultati di un’intervista svolta nei mesi di gennaio e febbraio 2008, ai direttori generali o ai direttori dell’area investimento dei fondi. Le interviste aggiungono informazioni prevalentemente di tipo qualitativo, in grado di descrivere le scelte manageriali operate dai fondi in tema di politica di investimento. Infine, laddove presente, sono state reperite informazioni anche dai siti internet che in taluni casi i fondi possiedono. Dalle case study condotte è possibile estrapolare una serie di risultati, che consentono di dare risposta alle tre domande di ricerca poste in precedenza. Relativamente alla prima domanda, è stato possibile stabilire che il portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti analizzati cresce nel tempo. Esso si compone per almeno un terzo di titoli di debito, prevalentemente titoli di stato, e per un altro terzo di investimenti immobiliari di vario tipo. Il restante terzo è composto da altre asset class, prevalentemente investimenti in quote di OICR. Per quanto riguarda la politica d’investimento, si rileva che mediamente essa è caratterizzata da un’alta avversione al rischio e pochissimi sono i casi in cui i fondi prevedono linee di investimento aggressive. Relativamente alla seconda domanda, si osserva che la dimensione dell’asset class immobiliare all’interno del portafoglio raggiunge una quota decrescente nell’arco di tempo considerato, seppur rilevante. Al suo interno prevalgono nettamente gli investimenti diretti in immobili. Seguono le partecipazioni in società immobiliari. L’analisi ha permesso, poi, di approfondire il tema degli investimenti immobiliari consentendo di trarre indicazioni circa le loro caratteristiche. Infine, relativamente all’ultima domanda di ricerca, i dati ottenuti, soprattutto per mezzo delle interviste, permettono di stabilire che, almeno con riferimento al campione analizzato, l’investimento immobiliare perde quota e in parte interesse. Questo risulta vero soprattutto relativamente agli investimenti immobiliari di tipo diretto. I fondi con patrimoni immobiliari rilevanti, infatti, sono per la totalità nel mezzo di processi di dismissione degli asset, mirati, non tanto all’eliminazione dell’asset class, ma piuttosto ad una riduzione della stessa, conformemente anche a quanto richiesto dalle recenti normative. Le interviste hanno messo in luce, tuttavia, che a fronte di un’esigenza generale di contentere la quota investita, l’asset immobiliare è considerato positivamente soprattutto in termini di opportunità di diversificazione di portafoglio e buoni rendimenti nel lungo periodo. I fondi appaiono interessati in modo particolare a diversificare il portafoglio immobiliare, dismettendo parte degli asset detenuti direttamente e aumentando al contrario le altre tipologie di investimento immobiliare, soprattutto quote di OICR immobiliari. Altrettanto positivi i giudizi relativi alle altre asset class alternative. Pur restando ancora limitato il totale delle risorse destinate, tali investimenti sono percepiti come una buona opportunità di diversificazione del portafoglio. In generale, si è rilevato che, anche laddove l’investimento non è presente o è molto ridotto, nel breve periodo è intenzione del management aumentare la quota impiegata.