Pertussis: A significant cause of prolonged acute cough in previously vaccinated school-aged children

No abstract available: Commentary on:
Wang KFry NKCampbell Het al. Whooping cough in school age children presenting with persistent cough in UK. BMJ 2014;348:g3668

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: Results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Testing the cause of the Sphagnum austinii (Sull. ex Aust.) decline: Multiproxy evidence from a raised bog in Northern Ireland

We use a multiproxy palaeoecological dataset from Dead Island bog in Northern Ireland to examine the cause of the Sphagnum austinii (Sphagnum imbricatum) decline. The disappearance of this species from the peat record occurred just after the ‘AD 860’ tephra layer and is coeval with a rapid increase in bog surface wetness and increased mineral dust and charcoal abundance. Although it is difficult to identify one specific cause of the decline, the evidence for increased soil-derived dust is apparent and is supported by regional tephra-dated pollen diagrams that reveal extensive landscape changes due to agricultural intensification in early Medieval Ireland. As the decline of S. austinii occurred much later (~ AD 1860) in Fallahogy bog (~ 1.2 km away), we suggest that the decline of S. austinii at Dead Island was caused by a combination of fire and the deposition of soil-derived dust. We suggest that future studies should consider the use of multiple cores from each site to examine the within-site variability of the decline of S. austinii.

Ellerman Bombs with Jets: Cause and Effect

Ellerman Bombs (EBs) are thought to arise as a result of photospheric magnetic reconnection. We use data from the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope(SST), to study EB events on the solar disk and at the limb. Both datasets show that EBs are connected to the foot-points of forming chromospheric jets. The limb observations show that a bright structure in the H$\alpha$ blue wing connects to the EB initially fuelling it,leading to the ejection of material upwards. The material moves along a loop structure where a newly formed jet is subsequently observed in the red wing of H$\alpha$. In the disk dataset, an EB initiates a jet which propagates away from the apparent reconnection site within the EB flame.The EB then splits into two, with associated brightenings in the inter-granular lanes (IGLs). Micro-jets are then observed, extending to500 km with a lifetime of a few minutes. Observed velocities of themicro-jets are approximately 5-10 km s$^{-1}$, while their chromospheric counterparts range from 50-80 km s$^{-1}$. MURaM simulations of quiet Sun reconnection show that micro-jets with similar properties to that of the observations follow the line of reconnection in the photosphere,with associated H$\alpha$ brightening at the location of increased temperature.

All-Cause Mortality up to and After Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Events in European Middle-Aged Men The PRIME Study

Background and Purpose-The aim was to investigate prospectively the all-cause mortality risk up to and after coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events in European middle-aged men.

Methods-The study population comprised 10 424 men 50 to 59 years of age recruited between 1991 and 1994 in France (N=7855) and Northern Ireland (N=2747) within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction. Incident CHD and stroke events and deaths from all causes were prospectively registered during the 10-year follow-up. In Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis, CHD and stroke events during follow-up were used as time-dependent covariates.

Results-A total of 769 CHD and 132 stroke events were adjudicated, and 569 deaths up to and 66 after CHD or stroke occurred during follow-up. After adjustment for study country and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.18-2.12) after CHD and 3.13 (95% confidence interval 1.98-4.92) after stroke.

Conclusions-These findings support continuous efforts to promote both primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Neural dysfunction following respiratory viral infection as a cause of chronic cough hypersensitivity

Respiratory viral infections are a common cause of acute coughing, an irritating symptom for the patient and an important mechanism of transmission for the virus. Although poorly described, the inflammatory consequences of infection likely induce coughing by chemical (inflammatory mediator) or mechanical (mucous) activation of the cough-evoking sensory nerves that innervate the airway wall. For some individuals, acute cough can evolve into a chronic condition, in which cough and aberrant airway sensations long outlast the initial viral infection. This suggests that some viruses have the capacity to induce persistent plasticity in the neural pathways mediating cough. In this brief review we present the clinical evidence of acute and chronic neural dysfunction following viral respiratory tract infections and explore possible mechanisms by which the nervous system may undergo activation, sensitization and plasticity.

Short-chain fatty acids cause an IL-8 response in cystic fibrosis airways via increased GPR41

RATIONALE: Anaerobic bacteria are present in large numbers in the airways of people with cystic fibrosis (PWCF). In the gut, anaerobes produce short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) that modulate immune/inflammatory processes.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the capacity of anaerobes to contribute to CF airway pathogenesis via SCFAs.

METHODS: Samples from 109 PWCF were processed using anaerobic microbiological culture with bacteria present identified by 16S RNA sequencing. SCFAs levels in anaerobe supernatants and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were determined by gas chromatography. The mRNA and/or protein expression of SCFAs receptors, GPR41 and GPR43, in CF and non-CF bronchial brushings, and 16HBE14o- and CFBE41o- cells were evaluated using RT-PCR, western blot, laser scanning cytometry and confocal microscopy. SCFAs-induced IL-8 secretion was monitored by ELISA.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Fifty seven of 109 (52.3%) PWCF were anaerobe-positive. Prevalence increased with age, from 33.3% to 57.7% in PWCF under (n=24) and over 6 years (n=85). All evaluated anaerobes produced millimolar concentrations of SCFAs, including acetic, propionic and butyric acid. SCFAs levels were higher in BAL samples from adults than children. GPR41 levels were elevated in; CFBE41o- versus 16HBE14o- cells; CF versus non-CF bronchial brushings; 16HBE14o- cells after treatment with CFTR inhibitor CFTR(inh)-172, CF BAL, or inducers of endoplasmic reticulum stress. SCFAs induced a dose-dependent and pertussis toxin-sensitive IL-8 response in bronchial epithelial cells with a higher production of IL-8 in CFBE41o- than 16HBE14o- cells.

CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates that SCFAs contribute to excessive production of IL-8 in CF airways colonized with anaerobes via upregulated GPR41.

Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.