920 resultados para causal inference


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Considerando a redução ou eliminação do uso de substâncias sintéticas que preconizam os sistemas sustentáveis de produção de frutas, este trabalho teve como objetivo a busca de novas alternativas para a quebra de dormência e o controle de doenças em videiras. Estacas de videira contendo uma gema foram pulverizadas com os seguintes tratamentos: 1) testemunha; 2) OV (óleo vegetal) 1%; 3) extrato de alho (EA) 3%; 4) EA 3% + OV 1%. Posteriormente, as estacas foram mantidas em câmara de crescimento (25±2.5ºC) por 56 dias. O único tratamento que estimulou a brotação das estacas de videira cv. Isabel Precoce foi o EA 3% + OV 1%, que atingiu 35% de brotação, diferindo estatisticamente dos tratamentos- testemunha (12,5%), OV 1% (17,5%) e EA 3% (15,0%). Provavelmente, o estádio de endodormência profunda das gemas, após apenas 90 horas de frio ( < 7,0ºC), impediu melhores resultados dos tratamentos para quebra de dormência. Três experimentos, foram conduzidos in vitro, com diferentes doses de extrato de alho, com o objetivo de avaliar o controle do fungo Elsinoe ampelina. Em todos os experimentos, houve efeito quadrático no crescimento micelial, sem ter havido diferenças entre os tratamentos com extrato de alho, evidenciando o seu efeito fungicida, mesmo na dose mais baixa de EA (0,0615%).

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A queda prematura dos frutos cítricos (QPFC), causada por Colletotrichum acutatum, dados os grandes prejuízos que têm causado aos produtores, constitui-se numa doença de grande importância econômica. O controle da doença é feito predominantemente mediante uso de fungicidas, que eleva o custo de produção e afeta negativamente o meio ambiente. Diante disso, este trabalho teve por objetivo buscar um método alternativo de controle da QPFC, mediante o uso de agentes de biocontrole ou de biofertilizantes. Diferentes concentrações de biofertilizantes (originários de duas fontes distintas e denominados de Bio1 e Bio 2); três isolados de Bacillus subtilis (ACB-69; 72 e 77) e três isolados de Trichoderma spp. (ACB-14; 37 e 39) foram testados, isoladamente ou em combinação, sob condições de laboratório, quanto à capacidade inibitória da germinação de conídios de C. acutatum. Estudaram-se, ainda, a produção de metabólitos termoestáveis por B. subtilis e o efeito sobre a germinação do patógeno. Quinze isolados de B. subtilis foram testados quanto à capacidade de prevenir a infecção por C. acutatum em flores destacadas de lima- ácida 'Tahiti' e, no campo, foram instalados dois experimentos, visando a testar ACBs e biofertilizantes no controle da doença. Verificou-se que o isolado ACB-72 (B. subtilis) e ACB-37 (T. pseudokoningii) foram os que mais inibiram a germinação do patógeno. Quanto à produção de metabólitos termoestáveis, ACB-69 e 77 foram os mais eficientes em produzir substâncias antifúngicas, e em quantidades suficientes para inibirem a germinação do patógeno. A mistura dos quatro isolados de Bacillus (ACBs: 69; 72; 77 e AP3) foi o que apresentou maior porcentagem de inibição (73%). Os biofertilizantes (Bio1 e Bio2), em concentrações acima de 10% e, quando em associação com isolados de Trichoderma spp., promoveram maiores inibições na germinação de C. acutatum. Em testes com flores destacadas, verificou-se que, onde foram aplicados os ACBs 69; 76; 74 e 77, as porcentagens de pétalas sem sintomas de infecção por C. acutatum foram de 83; 92; 92 e 97%, respectivamente. Mediante avaliações a campo, verificou-se a potencialidade de B. subtilis e de biofertilizantes em controlar a doença.

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O mal-do-Panamá é uma doença que causa grandes prejuízos à bananicultura no Brasil, uma vez que as principais cultivares em uso são suscetíveis ao Fusarium. Este trabalho teve como objetivos avaliar características agronômicas e resistência ao mal-do-Panamá de híbridos tetraploides de bananeira. O experimento foi conduzido no campo experimental da Embrapa Mandioca e Fruticultura Tropical, em delineamento casualizado, com 14 tratamentos e 10 repetições, nos anos de 2000 e 2001. Foram avaliados 14 tetraploides (FHIA-03, PV03-44, PC42-01, PV42-53, PV42-68, PV42-81, PV42-85, PV42-129, PV42-142, PV42-143, SH3640, ST12-31, ST42-08 e YB42-21) e a cultivar Maçã, usada como testemunha. Avaliaram-se as características altura da planta (m) e diâmetro do pseudocaule (cm) a 30 cm do solo, peso da massa do cacho (kg), penca (kg) e fruto (g), número de pencas por cacho, de frutos por penca e de dias do florescimento à colheita, e a incidência do mal-do-Panamá. As médias dos genótipos foram agrupadas pelo teste de Scott e Knott, a 5% de probabilidade. Observa-se uma ampla variação genética nos caracteres avaliados. Os genótipos FHIA 03, ST12-31, SH3640, PV42-142, PV42-53 e PV42-68apresentam boas características agronômicas e resistência ao mal-do-Panamá.

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A new, quantitative, inference model for environmental reconstruction (transfer function), based for the first time on the simultaneous analysis of multigroup species, has been developed. Quantitative reconstructions based on palaeoecological transfer functions provide a powerful tool for addressing questions of environmental change in a wide range of environments, from oceans to mountain lakes, and over a range of timescales, from decades to millions of years. Much progress has been made in the development of inferences based on multiple proxies but usually these have been considered separately, and the different numeric reconstructions compared and reconciled post-hoc. This paper presents a new method to combine information from multiple biological groups at the reconstruction stage. The aim of the multigroup work was to test the potential of the new approach to making improved inferences of past environmental change by improving upon current reconstruction methodologies. The taxonomic groups analysed include diatoms, chironomids and chrysophyte cysts. We test the new methodology using two cold-environment training-sets, namely mountain lakes from the Pyrenees and the Alps. The use of multiple groups, as opposed to single groupings, was only found to increase the reconstruction skill slightly, as measured by the root mean square error of prediction (leave-one-out cross-validation), in the case of alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon and altitude (a surrogate for air-temperature), but not for pH or dissolved CO2. Reasons why the improvement was less than might have been anticipated are discussed. These can include the different life-forms, environmental responses and reaction times of the groups under study.

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Abstract Purpose: Several well-known managerial accounting performance measurement models rely on causal assumptions. Whilst users of the models express satisfaction and link them with improved organizational performance, academic research, of the realworld applications, shows few reliable statistical associations. This paper provides a discussion on the"problematic" of causality in a performance measurement setting. Design/methodology/approach: This is a conceptual study based on an analysis and synthesis of the literature from managerial accounting, organizational theory, strategic management and social scientific causal modelling. Findings: The analysis indicates that dynamic, complex and uncertain environments may challenge any reliance upon valid causal models. Due to cognitive limitations and judgmental biases, managers may fail to trace correct cause-and-effect understanding of the value creation in their organizations. However, even lacking this validity, causal models can support strategic learning and perform as organizational guides if they are able to mobilize managerial action. Research limitations/implications: Future research should highlight the characteristics necessary for elaboration of convincing and appealing causal models and the social process of their construction. Practical implications: Managers of organizations using causal models should be clear on the purposes of their particular models and their limitations. In particular, difficulties are observed in specifying detailed cause and effect relations and their potential for communicating and directing attention. They should therefore construct their models to suit the particular purpose envisaged. Originality/value: This paper provides an interdisciplinary and holistic view on the issue of causality in managerial accounting models.

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[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

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OBJECTIVES: To investigate, using a Mendelian randomisation approach, whether heavier smoking is associated with a range of regional adiposity phenotypes, in particular those related to abdominal adiposity. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730 in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, of the associations of smoking heaviness with a range of adiposity phenotypes. PARTICIPANTS: 148 731 current, former and never-smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 29 studies in the consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Waist and hip circumferences, and waist-hip ratio. RESULTS: The data included up to 66 809 never-smokers, 43 009 former smokers and 38 913 current daily cigarette smokers. Among current smokers, for each extra minor allele, the geometric mean was lower for waist circumference by -0.40% (95% CI -0.57% to -0.22%), with effects on hip circumference, waist-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) being -0.31% (95% CI -0.42% to -0.19), -0.08% (-0.19% to 0.03%) and -0.74% (-0.96% to -0.51%), respectively. In contrast, among never-smokers, these effects were higher by 0.23% (0.09% to 0.36%), 0.17% (0.08% to 0.26%), 0.07% (-0.01% to 0.15%) and 0.35% (0.18% to 0.52%), respectively. When adjusting the three central adiposity measures for BMI, the effects among current smokers changed direction and were higher by 0.14% (0.05% to 0.22%) for waist circumference, 0.02% (-0.05% to 0.08%) for hip circumference and 0.10% (0.02% to 0.19%) for waist-hip ratio, for each extra minor allele. CONCLUSIONS: For a given BMI, a gene variant associated with increased cigarette consumption was associated with increased waist circumference. Smoking in an effort to control weight may lead to accumulation of central adiposity.

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Because natural selection is likely to act on multiple genes underlying a given phenotypic trait, we study here the potential effect of ongoing and past selection on the genetic diversity of human biological pathways. We first show that genes included in gene sets are generally under stronger selective constraints than other genes and that their evolutionary response is correlated. We then introduce a new procedure to detect selection at the pathway level based on a decomposition of the classical McDonald-Kreitman test extended to multiple genes. This new test, called 2DNS, detects outlier gene sets and takes into account past demographic effects and evolutionary constraints specific to gene sets. Selective forces acting on gene sets can be easily identified by a mere visual inspection of the position of the gene sets relative to their two-dimensional null distribution. We thus find several outlier gene sets that show signals of positive, balancing, or purifying selection but also others showing an ancient relaxation of selective constraints. The principle of the 2DNS test can also be applied to other genomic contrasts. For instance, the comparison of patterns of polymorphisms private to African and non-African populations reveals that most pathways show a higher proportion of nonsynonymous mutations in non-Africans than in Africans, potentially due to different demographic histories and selective pressures.

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RESUMO Na pós-colheita do abacaxizeiro, a podridão-negra é considerada como um dos principais problemas na comercialização dos frutos. A doença é causada pelo fungoChalara paradoxa (De Seynes) Sacc.. Apesar da importância deste patógeno para a cultura, são poucas as informações relacionadas ao estudo do mesmo, com base em características fisiológicas in vitro. Assim, o objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o crescimento micelial, a esporulação e a germinação de C. paradoxa, em diferentes condições de cultivo. A partir de placas contendo colônias puras do isolado de C. paradoxa, foram retirados individualmente discos para inoculação em diferentes meios. A incubação das placas foi feita em três diferentes regimes de luminosidade e em três diferentes temperaturas. Para o crescimento micelial, esporulação e germinação, as melhores condições de cultivo in vitro de C. paradoxa foram os meios aveia (OA) e batata (PDA) em alternância luminosa a 25°C, os meios batata (PDA) e abacaxi (PJA) no escuro contínuo, na mesma temperatura.

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There is little consensus regarding how verticality (social power, dominance, and status) is related to accurate interpersonal perception. The relation could be either positive or negative, and there could be many causal processes at play. The present article discusses the theoretical possibilities and presents a meta-analysis of this question. In studies using a standard test of interpersonal accuracy, higher socioeconomic status (SES) predicted higher accuracy defined as accurate inference about the meanings of cues; also, higher experimentally manipulated vertical position predicted higher accuracy defined as accurate recall of others' words. In addition, although personality dominance did not predict accurate inference overall, the type of personality dominance did, such that empathic/responsible dominance had a positive relation and egoistic/aggressive dominance had a negative relation to accuracy. In studies involving live interaction, higher experimentally manipulated vertical position produced lower accuracy defined as accurate inference about cues; however, methodological problems place this result in doubt.

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Understanding the basis on which recruiters form hirability impressions for a job applicant is a key issue in organizational psychology and can be addressed as a social computing problem. We approach the problem from a face-to-face, nonverbal perspective where behavioral feature extraction and inference are automated. This paper presents a computational framework for the automatic prediction of hirability. To this end, we collected an audio-visual dataset of real job interviews where candidates were applying for a marketing job. We automatically extracted audio and visual behavioral cues related to both the applicant and the interviewer. We then evaluated several regression methods for the prediction of hirability scores and showed the feasibility of conducting such a task, with ridge regression explaining 36.2% of the variance. Feature groups were analyzed, and two main groups of behavioral cues were predictive of hirability: applicant audio features and interviewer visual cues, showing the predictive validity of cues related not only to the applicant, but also to the interviewer. As a last step, we analyzed the predictive validity of psychometric questionnaires often used in the personnel selection process, and found that these questionnaires were unable to predict hirability, suggesting that hirability impressions were formed based on the interaction during the interview rather than on questionnaire data.

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El present estudi té com a finalitat estudiar què és el reposicionament i quins són els factors que l’envolten. Pretén establir quines són les principals causes que condueixen a reposicionar una marca, així com també analitzar si el reposicionament és equivalent que quan va sorgir, o si pel contrari ha evolucionat, i com ho ha fet. Amb aquest estudi intentarem esbrinar com es reposicionen les marques en l’actualitat.

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This paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression-based inequality decomposition (Fields, 2003) to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita. In contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions, which were based on identity relationships (Duro and Padilla, 2006), this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship. Thus, it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables. In short, the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence, sectoral composition, demographic factors and climate. The analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993–2007. The results show the important (though decreasing) share of the contribution of demographic factors, as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition.

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Standard indirect Inference (II) estimators take a given finite-dimensional statistic, Z_{n} , and then estimate the parameters by matching the sample statistic with the model-implied population moment. We here propose a novel estimation method that utilizes all available information contained in the distribution of Z_{n} , not just its first moment. This is done by computing the likelihood of Z_{n}, and then estimating the parameters by either maximizing the likelihood or computing the posterior mean for a given prior of the parameters. These are referred to as the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) and Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimators, respectively. We show that the IL estimators are first-order equivalent to the corresponding moment-based II estimator that employs the optimal weighting matrix. However, due to higher-order features of Z_{n} , the IL estimators are higher order efficient relative to the standard II estimator. The likelihood of Z_{n} will in general be unknown and so simulated versions of IL estimators are developed. Monte Carlo results for a structural auction model and a DSGE model show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.