904 resultados para calibration of rainfall-runoff models
Resumo:
Recently it has been shown that the fidelity of the ground state of a quantum many-body system can be used todetect its quantum critical points (QCPs). If g denotes the parameter in the Hamiltonian with respect to which the fidelity is computed, we find that for one-dimensional models with large but finite size, the fidelity susceptibility chi(F) can detect a QCP provided that the correlation length exponent satisfies nu < 2. We then show that chi(F) can be used to locate a QCP even if nu >= 2 if we introduce boundary conditions labeled by a twist angle N theta, where N is the system size. If the QCP lies at g = 0, we find that if N is kept constant, chi(F) has a scaling form given by chi(F) similar to theta(-2/nu) f (g/theta(1/nu)) if theta << 2 pi/N. We illustrate this both in a tight-binding model of fermions with a spatially varying chemical potential with amplitude h and period 2q in which nu = q, and in a XY spin-1/2 chain in which nu = 2. Finally we show that when q is very large, the model has two additional QCPs at h = +/- 2 which cannot be detected by studying the energy spectrum but are clearly detected by chi(F). The peak value and width of chi(F) seem to scale as nontrivial powers of q at these QCPs. We argue that these QCPs mark a transition between extended and localized states at the Fermi energy. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevB.86.245424
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Using continuous and near-real time measurements of the mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosols near the surface, for a period of 1 year (from January to December 2006) from a network of eight observatories spread over different environments of India, a space-time synthesis is generated. The strong seasonal variations observed, with a winter high and summer low, are attributed to the combined effects of changes in synoptic air mass types, modulated strongly by the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. Spatial distribution shows much higher BC concentration over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) than the peninsular Indian stations. These were examined against the simulations using two chemical transport models, GOCART (Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) and CHIMERE for the first time over Indian region. Both the model simulations significantly deviated from the measurements at all the stations; more so during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons and over mega cities. However, the CHIMERE model simulations show better agreement compared with the measurements. Notwithstanding this, both the models captured the temporal variations; at seasonal and subseasonal timescales and the natural variabilities (intra-seasonal oscillations) fairly well, especially at the off-equatorial stations. It is hypothesized that an improvement in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization scheme for tropical environment might lead to better results with GOCART.
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Etched Fiber Bragg Grating (EFBG) sensors are attractive from the point of the inherently high multiplexing ability of fiber based sensors. However, the strong dependence of the sensitivity of EFBG sensors on the fiber diameter requires robust methods for calibration when used for distributed sensing in a large array format. Using experimental data and numerical modelling, we show that knowledge of the wavelength shift during the etch process is necessary for high-fidelity calibration of EFBG arrays. However as this approach requires the monitoring of every element of the sensor array during etching, we also proposed and demonstrated a calibration scheme using data from bulk refractometry measurements conducted post-fabrication without needing any information about the etching process. Although this approach is not as precise as the first one, it may be more practical as there is no requirement to monitor each element of the sensor array. We were able to calibrate the response of the sensors to within 3% with the approach using information acquired during etching and to within 5% using the post-fabrication bulk refractometry approach in spite of the sensitivities of the array element differing by more than a factor of 4. These two approaches present a tradeoff between accuracy and practicality.
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Seasonal rainfall patterns in Bangalore, India, have been reconstructed using stable isotopic ratios in the growth bands of Giant African Land Snail shells. The present study was conducted at Bangalore, India which receives rain during the summer months. The oxygen isotopic record in the rainwater samples collected during different months covering the period of the summer monsoon of the year 2008 is compared with the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands deposited simultaneously. The chronology of the shell growth band is independently established assuming the growth rate observed in a chamber experiment maintaining similar relative humidity and temperature conditions. A consistent pattern observed in the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands and rainwater is demonstrated and provides a novel approach for precipitation reconstruction at seasonal and weekly time scales. This approach of using isotopic ratios in the gastropod growth bands for rainfall can serve as a substitute for filling gaps in rainfall data and for cases where no rain records are available. In addition, they can be used to determine the frequencies and magnitudes of dry spells from the past records. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The effects of the initial height on the temporal persistence probability of steady-state height fluctuations in up-down symmetric linear models of surface growth are investigated. We study the (1 + 1)-dimensional Family model and the (1 + 1)-and (2 + 1)-dimensional larger curvature (LC) model. Both the Family and LC models have up-down symmetry, so the positive and negative persistence probabilities in the steady state, averaged over all values of the initial height h(0), are equal to each other. However, these two probabilities are not equal if one considers a fixed nonzero value of h(0). Plots of the positive persistence probability for negative initial height versus time exhibit power-law behavior if the magnitude of the initial height is larger than the interface width at saturation. By symmetry, the negative persistence probability for positive initial height also exhibits the same behavior. The persistence exponent that describes this power-law decay decreases as the magnitude of the initial height is increased. The dependence of the persistence probability on the initial height, the system size, and the discrete sampling time is found to exhibit scaling behavior.
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Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.
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For space applications, the weight of the liquid level sensors are of major concern as they affect the payload fraction and hence the cost. An attempt is made to design and test a light weight High Temperature Superconductor (HTS) wire based liquid level sensor for Liquid Oxygen (LOX) tank used in the cryostage of the spacecraft. The total resistance value measured of the HTS wire is inversely proportional to the liquid level. A HTS wire (SF12100) of 12mm width and 2.76m length without copper stabilizer has been used in the level sensor. The developed HTS wire based LOX level sensor is calibrated against a discrete diode array type level sensor. Liquid Nitrogen (LN2) and LOX has been used as cryogenic fluid for the calibration purpose. The automatic data logging for the system has been done using LabVIEW11. The net weight of the developed sensor is less than 1 kg.
Resumo:
The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.
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Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Resumo:
Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.
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The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This paper intends to provide an overview of the rich legacy of models and theories that have emerged in the last fifty years of the relatively young discipline of design research, and identifies some of the major areas of further research. It addresses the following questions: What are the major theories and models of design? How are design theory and model defined, and what is their purpose? What are the criteria they must satisfy to be considered a design theory or model? How should a theory or model of design be evaluated or validated? What are the major directions for further research?
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With the finite volume method, a 2D numerical model for seepage in unsaturated soil has been established to study the rainfall infiltration in the fractured slope.The result shows that more rain may infiltrate into the slope due to existing fracture and then the pore pressure rises correspondingly. Very probably, it is one of the crucial factors accounting for slope failure. Furthermore a preliminary study has been conducted to investigate the influence of various fracture and rainfall factors such as the depth, width and location of a crack, surface condition, rainfall intensity and duration. Pore pressure and water volumetric content during the transient seepage are carefully examined to reveal the intrinsic mechanism.
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Mechanism of wave-seabed interaction has been extensively studied by coastal geotechnical engineers in recent years. Numerous poro-elastic models have been proposed to investigate the mechanism of wave propagation on a seabed in the past. The existing poro-elastic models include drained model, consolidation model, Coulomb-damping model, and full dynamic model. However, to date, the difference between the existing models is unclear. In this paper, the fully dynamic poro-elastic model for the wave-seabed interaction will be derived first. Then, the existing models will be reduced from the proposed fully dynamic model. Based on the numerical comparisons, the applicable range of each model is also clarified for the engineering practice.