Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A NAIRU assessment: an applied case to Colombia’s labor markets

Given the discrepancy over the optimum levels of employment for Colombia, this research targets both, the national and urban, Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for the Colombian markets -- In doing so, there is a strong pertinence in estimating the constant NAIRU through raw and minimally altered data and providing the reader with a complete brief of the theory in which the model is founded -- The introduction of supply shocks is considered to attain improved estimations and a more reliable assessment of the NAIRU to those that have previously been attempted -- The backbone of the analysis is conducted through the relationship established by the Phillips curve from 2001 until 2015

Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

Student, school, and country differences in sustained test-taking effort in the 2009 PISA reading assessment

In this article, the change in examinee effort during an assessment, which we will refer to as persistence, is modeled as an effect of item position. A multilevel extension is proposed to analyze hierarchically structured data and decompose the individual differences in persistence. Data from the 2009 Program of International Student Achievement (PISA) reading assessment from N = 467,819 students from 65 countries are analyzed with the proposed model, and the results are compared across countries. A decrease in examinee effort during the PISA reading assessment was found consistently across countries, with individual differences within and between schools. Both the decrease and the individual differences are more pronounced in lower performing countries. Within schools, persistence is slightly negatively correlated with reading ability; but at the school level, this correlation is positive in most countries. The results of our analyses indicate that it is important to model and control examinee effort in low-stakes assessments. (DIPF/Orig.)

Exploring the potential role of allostatic load biomarkers in risk assessment of patients presenting with depressive symptoms

Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

Wildfire Assessment Using FARSITE Fire Modeling: A Case Study in the Chihuahua Desert of Mexico

The Chihuahua desert is one of the most biologically diverse ecosystems in the world, but suffers serious degradation because of changes in fire regimes resulting in large catastrophic fires. My study was conducted in the Sierra La Mojonera (SLM) natural protected area in Mexico. The purpose of this study was to implement the use of FARSITE fire modeling as a fire management tool to develop an integrated fire management plan at SLM. Firebreaks proved to detain 100% of wildfire outbreaks. The rosetophilous scrub experienced the fastest rate of fire spread and lowland creosote bush scrub experienced the slowest rate of fire spread. March experienced the fastest rate of fire spread, while September experienced the slowest rate of fire spread. The results of my study provide a tool for wildfire management through the use geospatial technologies and, in particular, FARSITE fire modeling in SLM and Mexico.

ESL teacher profiles of ICT integration in their classroom practices and assessment activities : a portrait viewed through the lens of some Quebec teachers’ social representations

Abstract : Information and communication technologies (ICTs, henceforth) have become ubiquitous in our society. The plethora of devices competing with the computer, from iPads to the Interactive whiteboard, just to name a few, has provided teachers and students alike with the ability to communicate and access information with unprecedented accessibility and speed. It is only logical that schools reflect these changes given that their purpose is to prepare students for the future. Surprisingly enough, research indicates that ICT integration into teaching activities is still marginal. Many elementary and secondary schoolteachers are not making effective use of ICTs in their teaching activities as well as in their assessment practices. The purpose of the current study is a) to describe Quebec ESL teachers’ profiles of using ICTs in their daily teaching activities; b) to describe teachers’ ICT integration and assessment practices; and c) to describe teachers’ social representations regarding the utility and relevance of ICT use in their daily teaching activities and assessment practices. In order to attain our objectives, we based our theoretical framework, principally, on the social representations (SR, henceforth) theory and we defined most related constructs which were deemed fundamental to the current thesis. We also collected data from 28 ESL elementary and secondary school teachers working in public and private sectors. The interview guide used to that end included a range of items to elicit teachers’ SR in terms of ICT daily use in teaching activities as well as in assessment practices. In addition, we carried out our data analyses from a textual statistics perspective, a particular mode of content analysis, in order to extract the indicators underlying teachers’ representations of the teachers. The findings suggest that although almost all participants use a wide range of ICT tools in their practices, ICT implementation is seemingly not exploited to its fullest potential and, correspondingly, is likely to produce limited effects on students’ learning. Moreover, none of the interviewees claim that they use ICTs in their assessment practices and they still hold to the traditional paper-based assessment (PBA, henceforth) approach of assessing students’ learning. Teachers’ common discourse reveals a gap between the positive standpoint with regards to ICT integration, on the one hand, and the actual uses of instructional technology, on the other. These results are useful for better understanding the way ESL teachers in Quebec currently view their use of ICTs, particularly for evaluation purposes. In fact, they provide a starting place for reconsidering the implementation of ICTs in elementary and secondary schools. They may also be useful to open up avenues for the development of a future research program in this regard.

Cognitive Assessment System (CAS): Psychometric studies with Portuguese children from 7 to 15 years.

The Cognitive Assessment System (CAS) is a new measure of cognitive abilities based on the Planning, Attention, Simultaneous and Successive (PASS) Theory. This theory is derived from research in neuropsychological and cognitive Psychology with particular emphasis on the work of Luria (1973). According to Naglieri (1999) and Naglieri and Das (1997), the PASS cognitive processes are the basic building blocks of human intellectual functioning. Planning processes provide cognitive control, utilization of processes and knowledge, intentionality, and self-regulation to achieve a desired goal; Attention processes provide focused, selective cognitive activity and resistance to distraction; and, Simultaneous and Successive processes are the two forms of operating on information. The PASS theory has had a strong empirical base prior to the publication of the CAS (see Das, Naglieri & Kirby, 1994), and its research foundation remains strong (see Naglieri, 1999; Naglieri & Das, 1997). The four basic psychological processes can be used to (1) gain an understanding of how well a child thinks; (2) discover the child’s strengths and needs, which can then be used for effective differential diagnosis; (3) conduct fair assessment; and (4) select or design appropriate interventions. Compared to the traditional intelligence tests, including IQ tests, the Cognitive Assessment System (CAS) has the great advantage of relying on a modern theory of cognitive functioning, linking theory with practice.

Impact of gentrification processes in rural landscapes: a methodology for landscape assessment towards sustainable rural development

With an increasing demand for rural resources and land, new challenges are approaching affecting and restructuring the European countryside. While creating opportunities for rural living, it has also opened a discussion on rural gentrification risks. The concept of rural gentrification encircles the influx of new residents leading to an economic upgrade of an area making it unaffordable for local inhabitants to stay in. Rural gentrification occurs in areas perceived as attractive. Paradoxically, in-migrants re-shape their surrounding landscape. Rural gentrification may not only cause displacement of people but also landscape values. Thus, this research aims to understand the twofold role of landscape in rural gentrification theory: as a possible driver to attract residents and as a product shaped by its residents. To understand the potential gentrifiers’ decision process, this research has provided a collection of drivers behind in-migration. Moreover, essential indicators of rural gentrification have been collected from previous studies. Yet, the available indicators do not contain measures to understand related landscape changes. To fill this gap, after analysing established landscape assessment methodologies, evaluating the relevance for assessing gentrification, a new Landscape Assessment approach is proposed. This method introduces a novel approach to capture landscape change caused by gentrification through a historical depth. The measures to study gentrification was applied on Gotland, Sweden. The study showed a population stagnating while the number of properties increased, and housing prices raised. These factors are not indicating positive growth but risks of gentrification. Then, the research applied the proposed Landscape Assessment method for areas exposed to gentrification. Results suggest that landscape change takes place on a local scale and could over time endanger key characteristics. The methodology contributes to a discussion on grasping nuances within the rural context. It has also proven useful for indicating accumulative changes, which is necessary in managing landscape values.

Network analysis and machine learning assist drug repurposing and safety assessment in neurological diseases

In recent decades, two prominent trends have influenced the data modeling field, namely network analysis and machine learning. This thesis explores the practical applications of these techniques within the domain of drug research, unveiling their multifaceted potential for advancing our comprehension of complex biological systems. The research undertaken during this PhD program is situated at the intersection of network theory, computational methods, and drug research. Across six projects presented herein, there is a gradual increase in model complexity. These projects traverse a diverse range of topics, with a specific emphasis on drug repurposing and safety in the context of neurological diseases. The aim of these projects is to leverage existing biomedical knowledge to develop innovative approaches that bolster drug research. The investigations have produced practical solutions, not only providing insights into the intricacies of biological systems, but also allowing the creation of valuable tools for their analysis. In short, the achievements are: • A novel computational algorithm to identify adverse events specific to fixed-dose drug combinations. • A web application that tracks the clinical drug research response to SARS-CoV-2. • A Python package for differential gene expression analysis and the identification of key regulatory "switch genes". • The identification of pivotal events causing drug-induced impulse control disorders linked to specific medications. • An automated pipeline for discovering potential drug repurposing opportunities. • The creation of a comprehensive knowledge graph and development of a graph machine learning model for predictions. Collectively, these projects illustrate diverse applications of data science and network-based methodologies, highlighting the profound impact they can have in supporting drug research activities.

Assessment Of The Fixation Of Mandibular Symphysis Fractures Using Conical Cannulated Screws: Mechanical And Photoelastic Tests.

The aim of this study was to use mechanical and photoelastic tests to compare the performance of cannulated screws with other fixation methods in mandibular symphysis fractures. Ten polyurethane mandibles were allocated to each group and fixed as follows: group PRP, 2 perpendicular miniplates; group PLL, 1 miniplate and 1 plate, parallel; and group CS, 2 cannulated screws. Vertical linear loading tests were performed. The differences between mean values were analyzed with the Tukey test. The photoelastic test was carried out using a polariscope. The results revealed differences between the CS and PRP groups at 1, 3, 5, and 10 millimeters of displacement. The photoelastic test confirmed higher stress concentration in all groups close to the mandibular base, whereas the CS group showed it throughout the region assessed. Conical cannulated screws performed well in mechanical and photoelastic tests.

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Assessment Of Interstitial Myocardial Fibrosis And Cardiomyocyte Hypertrophy In Hypertensive Mice Treated With Spironolactone.

Nearly 50% of patients with heart failure (HF) have preserved LV ejection fraction, with interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy as early manifestations of pressure overload. However, methods to assess both tissue characteristics dynamically and noninvasively with therapy are lacking. We measured the effects of mineralocorticoid receptor blockade on tissue phenotypes in LV pressure overload using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). Mice were randomized to l-nitro-ω-methyl ester (l-NAME, 3 mg/mL in water; n=22), or l-NAME with spironolactone (50 mg/kg/day in subcutaneous pellets; n=21). Myocardial extracellular volume (ECV; marker of diffuse interstitial fibrosis) and the intracellular lifetime of water (τic; marker of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy) were determined by CMR T1 imaging at baseline and after 7 weeks of therapy alongside histological assessments. Administration of l-NAME induced hypertensive heart disease in mice, with increases in mean arterial pressure, LV mass, ECV, and τic compared with placebo-treated controls, while LV ejection fraction was preserved (>50%). In comparison, animals receiving both spironolactone and l-NAME (l-NAME+S) showed less concentric remodeling, and a lower myocardial ECV and τic, indicating decreased interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy (ECV: 0.43 ± 0.09 for l-NAME versus 0.25 ± 0.03 for l-NAME+S, P<0.001; τic: 0.42 ± 0.11 for l-NAME groups versus 0.12 ± 0.05 for l-NAME+S group). Mice treated with a combination of l-NAME and spironolactone were similar to placebo-treated controls at 7 weeks. Spironolactone attenuates interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy in hypertensive heart disease. CMR can phenotype myocardial tissue remodeling in pressure-overload, furthering our understanding of HF progression.

The Inadequacy Of The Y-axis Of Growth (sngn) For The Vertical Pattern Assessment In Patients With Sagittal Discrepancies.

The aim of this cephalometric study was to evaluate the influence of the sagittal skeletal pattern on the 'Y-axis of growth' measurement in patients with different malocclusions. Lateral head films from 59 patients (mean age 16y 7m, ranging from 11 to 25 years) were selected after a subjective analysis of 1630 cases. Sample was grouped as follows: Group 1 - class I facial pattern; group 2 - class II facial pattern; and Group 3 - class III facial pattern. Two angular measurements, SNGoGn and SNGn, were taken in order to determine skeletal vertical facial pattern. A logistic regression with errors distributed according to a binomial distribution was used to test the influence of the sagittal relationship (Class I, II, III facial patterns) on vertical diagnostic measurement congruence (SNGoGn and SNGn). RESULTS show that the probability of congruence between the patterns SNGn and SNGoGn was relatively high (70%) for group 1, but for groups II (46%) and III (37%) this congruence was relatively low. The use of SNGn appears to be inappropriate to determine the vertical facial skeletal pattern of patients, due to Gn point shifting throughout sagittal discrepancies. Clinical Significance: Facial pattern determined by SNGn must be considered carefully, especially when severe sagittal discrepancies are present.