Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

A comparison of new and existing mild traumatic brain injury vignettes : recommendations for research into post-concussion syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To review and compare the mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) vignettes used in postconcussion syndrome (PCS) research, and to develop 3 new vignettes. METHOD: The new vignettes were devised using World Health Organization (WHO) mTBI diagnostic criteria [1]. Each vignette depicted a very mild (VM), mild (M), or severe (S) brain injury. Expert review (N = 27) and readability analysis was used to validate the new vignettes and compare them to 5 existing vignettes. RESULTS: The response rate was 44%. The M vignette and existing vignettes were rated as depicting a mTBI; however, the fit-to-criteria of these vignettes differed significantly. The fit-to-criteria of the M vignette was as good as that of 3 existing vignettes and significantly better than 2 other vignettes. As expected, the VM and S vignettes were a poor fit-to-criteria. CONCLUSIONS: These new vignettes will assist PCS researchers to test the limits of important etiology factors by varying the severity of depicted injuries.

Overweight and obesity alters the cumulative transverse strain in the Achilles tendon immediately following exercise

This research evaluated the effect of obesity on the acute cumulative transverse strain of the Achilles tendon in response to exercise. Twenty healthy adult males were categorized into ‘low normal-weight’ (BMI <23 kg m−2) and ‘overweight’ (BMI >27.5 kg m−2) groups based on intermediate cut-off points recommended by the World Health Organization. Longitudinal sonograms of the right Achilles tendon were acquired immediately prior and following weight-bearing ankle exercises. Achilles tendon thickness was measured 20-mm proximal to the calcaneal insertion and transverse tendon strain was calculated as the natural log of the ratio of post- to pre-exercise tendon thickness. The Achilles tendon was thicker in the overweight group both prior to (t18 = −2.91, P = 0.009) and following (t18 = −4.87, P < 0.001) exercise. The acute transverse strain response of the Achilles tendon in the overweight group (−10.7 ± 2.5%), however, was almost half that of the ‘low normal-weight’ (−19.5 ± 7.4%) group (t18 = −3.56, P = 0.004). These findings suggest that obesity is associated with structural changes in tendon that impairs intra-tendinous fluid movement in response to load and provides new insights into the link between tendon pathology and overweight and obesity.

Genetic variation in cytokine-related genes and migraine susceptibility

Migraine is classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as being one of the top 20 most debilitating diseases. According to the neurovascular hypothesis, neuroinflammation may promote the activation and sensitisation of meningeal nociceptors, inducing the persistent throbbing headache characterized in migraine. The tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene cluster, made up of TNFα, lymphotoxin α (LTA), and lymphotoxin β (LTB), has been implicated to influence the intensity and duration of local inflammation. It is thought that sterile inflammation mediated by LTA, LTB, and TNFα contributes to threshold brain excitability, propagation of neuronal hyperexcitability and thus initiation and maintenance of a migraine attack. Previous studies have investigated variants within the TNF gene cluster region in relation to migraine susceptibility, with largely conflicting results. The aim of this study was to expand on previous research and utilize a large case-control cohort and range of variants within the TNF gene cluster to investigate the role of the TNF gene cluster in migraine. Nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected for investigation as follows: rs1800683, rs2229094, rs2009658, rs2071590, rs2239704, rs909253, rs1800630, rs1800629, and rs3093664. No significant association with migraine susceptibility was found for any of the SNPs tested, with further testing according to migraine subtype and gender also showing no association for disease risk. Haplotype analysis showed that none of the tested haplotypes were significantly associated with migraine.

Physical activity patterns among South-Asian adults : a systematic review

Physical activity (PA) has many beneficial physical and mental health effects. Physical inactivity is considered the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality. At present there are no systematic reviews on PA patterns among South Asian adults residing in the region. The present study aims to systematically evaluate studies on PA patterns in South Asian countries. A five-staged comprehensive search of the literature was conducted in Medline, Web of Science and SciVerse Scopus using keywords ‘Exercise’, ‘Walking’, ‘Physical activity’, ‘Inactivity’, ‘Physical Activity Questionnaire’, ‘International Physical Activity Questionnaire’, ‘IPAQ’, ‘Global Physical Activity Questionnaire’ and ‘GPAQ’, combined with individual country names. The search was restricted to English language articles conducted in humans and published before 31st December 2012. To obtain additional data a manual search of the reference lists of articles was performed. Data were also retrieved from the search of relevant web sites and online resources. The total number of hits obtained from the initial search was 1,771. The total number of research articles included in the present review is eleven (India-8, Sri Lanka-2, Pakistan-1). In addition, eleven country reports (Nepal-3, Bangladesh-2, India-2, Sri Lanka-2, Bhutan-1, Maldives-1) of World Health Organization STEPS survey from the South-Asian countries were retrieved online. In the research articles the overall prevalence of inactivity was as follows; India (18.5%-88.4%), Pakistan (60.1%) and Sri Lanka (11.0%-31.8%). STEPS survey reports were available from all countries except Pakistan. Overall in majority of STEPS surveys females were more inactive compared to males. Furthermore, leisure related inactivity was >75% in studies reporting inactivity in this domain and people were more active in transport domain when compared with the other domains. In conclusion, our results show that there is a wide variation in the prevalence of physical inactivity among South-Asian adults within and between countries. Furthermore, physical inactivity in South Asian adults was associated with several socio-demographic characteristics. Majority of South Asian adults were inactive during their leisure time. These Factors need to be considered when planning future interventions and research aimed at improving PA in the region.

Hospitalisation of Indigenous children in the Northern Territory for lower respiratory illness in the first year of life

Objective To describe the epidemiology of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) and bronchiectasis in Northern Territory Indigenous infants hospitalised in the first year of life. Design A historical cohort study constructed from the NT Hospital Discharge Dataset and the NT Imm(u)nisation Register. Participants and setting All NT resident Indigenous infants, born 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004, admitted to NT public hospitals and followed up to 12 months of age. Main outcome measures Incidence of ALRI and bronchiectasis (ICD-10-AM codes) and radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol). Results Data on 9295 infants, 8498 child-years of observation and 15 948 hospitalised episodes of care were analysed. ALRI incidence was 426.7 episodes per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 416.2-437.2). Incidence rates were two times higher (relative risk, 2.12; 95% Cl, 1.98-2.27) for infants in Central Australia compared with those in the Top End. The median age at first admission for an ALRI was 4.6 months (interquartile range, 2.6-7.3). Bronchiolitis accounted for most of the disease burden, with a rate of 227 per 1000 child-years. The incidence of first diagnosis of bronchiectasis was 1.18 per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 0.60-2.16). One or more key comorbidities were present in 1445 of the 3227 (44.8%) episodes of care for ALRI. Conclusions Rates of ALRI and bronchiectasis in NT Indigenous infants are excessive, with early onset, frequent repeat episodes, and a high prevalence of comorbidities. These high rates of disease demand urgent attention.

Identification of radiological alveolar pneumonia in children with high rates of hospitalized respiratory infections : Comparison of WHO-defined and pediatric pulmonologist diagnosis in the clinical context

Background A reliable standardized diagnosis of pneumonia in children has long been difficult to achieve. Clinical and radiological criteria have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), however, their generalizability to different populations is uncertain. We evaluated WHO defined chest radiograph (CXRs) confirmed alveolar pneumonia in the clinical context in Central Australian Aboriginal children, a high risk population, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI). Methods CXRs in children (aged 1-60 months) hospitalized and treated with intravenous antibiotics for ALRI and enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Vitamin A/Zinc supplementation were matched with data collected during a population-based study of WHO-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (WHO-EPC). These CXRs were reread by a pediatric pulmonologist (PP) and classified as pneumonia-PP when alveolar changes were present. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for clinical presentations were compared between WHO-EPC and pneumonia-PP. Results Of the 147 episodes of hospitalized ALRI, WHO-EPC was significantly less commonly diagnosed in 40 (27.2%) compared to pneumonia-PP (difference 20.4%, 95% CI 9.6-31.2, P < 0.001). Clinical signs on admission were poor predictors for both pneumonia-PP and WHO-EPC; the sensitivities of clinical signs ranged from a high of 45% for tachypnea to 5% for fever + tachypnea + chest-indrawing. The PPV range was 40-20%, respectively. Higher PPVs were observed against the pediatric pulmonologist's diagnosis compared to WHO-EPC. Conclusions WHO-EPC underestimates alveolar consolidation in a clinical context. Its use in clinical practice or in research designed to inform clinical management in this population should be avoided. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2012; 47:386-392. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effectiveness of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against radiologically diagnosed pneumonia in indigenous infants in Australia

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in preventing pneumonia, diagnosed radiologically according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, among indigenous infants in the Northern Territory of Australia. Methods We conducted a historical cohort study of consecutive indigenous birth cohorts between 1 April 1998 and 28 February 2005. Children were followed up to 18 months of age. The PCV7 programme commenced on 1 June 2001. All chest X-rays taken within 3 days of any hospitalization were assessed. The primary endpoint was a first episode of WHO-defined pneumonia requiring hospitalization. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare disease incidence. Findings There were 526 pneumonia events among 10 600 children - an incidence of 3.3 per 1000 child-months; 183 episodes (34.8%) occurred before 5 months of age and 247 (47.0%) by 7 months. Of the children studied, 27% had received 3 doses of vaccine by 7 months of age. Hazard ratios for endpoint pneumonia were 1.01 for 1 versus 0 doses; 1.03 for 2 versus 0 doses; and 0.84 for 3 versus 0 doses. Conclusion There was limited evidence that PCV7 reduced the incidence of radiologically confirmed pneumonia among Northern Territory indigenous infants, although there was a non-significant trend towards an effect after receipt of the third dose. These findings might be explained by lack of timely vaccination and/or occurrence of disease at an early age. Additionally, the relative contribution of vaccine-type pneumococcus to severe pneumonia in a setting where multiple other pathogens are prevalent may differ with respect to other settings where vaccine efficacy has been clearly established.

Phase III trial of gemcitabine and carboplatin versus mitomycin, ifosfamide, and cisplatin or mitomycin, vinblastine, and cisplatin in patients with advanced nonsmall cell lung carcinoma

BACKGROUND. The authors compared gemcitabine and carboplatin (GC) with mitomycin, ifosfamide, and cisplatin (MIC) or mitomycin, vinblastine, and cisplatin (MVP) in patients with advanced nonsmall cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). The primary objective was survival. Secondary objectives were time to disease progression, response rates, evaluation of toxicity, disease-related symptoms, World Health Organization performance status (PS), and quality of life (QoL). METHODS. Three hundred seventy-two chemotherapy-naïve patients with International Staging System Stage III/IV NSCLC who were ineligible for curative radiotherapy or surgery were randomized to receive either 4 cycles of gemcitabine (1000 mg/m2 on Days 1, 8, and 15) plus carboplatin (area under the serum concentration-time curve, 5; given on Day 1) every 4 weeks (the GC arm) or MIC/MVP every 3 weeks (the MIC/MVP arm). RESULTS. There was no significant difference in median survival (248 days in the MIC/MVP arm vs. 236 days in the GC arm) or time to progression (225 days in the MIC/MVP arm vs. 218 days in the GC arm) between the 2 treatment arms. The 2-year survival rate was 11.8% in the MIC/MVP arm and 6.9% in the GC arm. The 1-year survival rate was 32.5% in the MIC/MVP arm and 33.2% in the GC arm. In the MIC/MVP arm, 33% of patients responded (4 complete responses [CRs] and 57 partial responses [PRs]) whereas in the GC arm, 30% of patients responded (3 CRs and 54 PRs). Nonhematologic toxicity was comparable for patients with Grade 3-4 symptoms, except there was more alopecia among patients in the MIC/MVP arm. GC appeared to produce more hematologic toxicity and necessitated more transfusions. There was no difference in performance status, disease-related symptoms, of QoL between patients in the two treatment arms. Fewer inpatient stays for complications were required with GC. CONCLUSIONS. The results of the current study failed to demonstrate any difference in efficacy between the newer regimen of GC and the older regimens of MIC and MVP. © 2003 American Cancer Society.

Phase II trial of Oxaliplatin and 5-Fluorouracil/Leucovorin combination in epithelial ovarian carcinoma relapsing within 2 years of platinum-based therapy

Objective To evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of Oxaliplatin and 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU)/Leucovorin (LV) combination in ovarian cancer relapsing within 2 years of prior platinum-based chemotherapy in a phase II trial. Methods Eligible patients had at least one prior platinum-based chemotherapy regimen, elevated CA-125 ≥ 60 IU/l, radiological evidence of disease progression and adequate hepatic, renal and bone marrow function. Patients with raised CA-125 levels alone as marker of disease relapse were not eligible. Oxaliplatin (85 mg/m 2) was given on day 1, and 5-Fluorouracil (370 mg/m 2) and Leucovorin (30 mg) was given on days 1 and 8 of a 14-day cycle. Results Twenty-seven patients were enrolled. The median age was 57 years (range 42-74 years). The median platinum-free interval (PFI) was 5 months (range 0-17 months) with only 30% of patients being platinum sensitive (PFI > 6 months). Six patients (22%) had two prior regimens of chemotherapy. A total of 191 cycles were administered (median 7; range 2-12). All patients were evaluable for toxicity. The following grade 3/4 toxicities were noted: anemia 4%; neutropenia 15%; thrombocytopenia 11%; neurotoxicity 8%; lethargy 4%; diarrhea 4%; hypokalemia 11%; hypomagnesemia 11%. Among 27 enrolled patients, 20 patients were evaluable for response by WHO criteria and 25 patients were evaluable by Rustin's CA-125 criteria. The overall response rate (RR) by WHO criteria was 30% (95% CI: 15- 52) [three complete responses (CRs) and three partial responses (PRs)]. The CA-125 response rate was 56% (95% CI: 37-73). Significantly, a 25% (95% CI: 9-53) radiological and a 50% (95% CI: 28-72) CA-125 response rate were noted in platinum resistant patients (PFI < 6 months). The median response duration was 4 months (range 3-12) and the median overall survival was 10 months. Conclusion Oxaliplatin and 5-Fluorouracil/ Leucovorin combination has a good safety profile and is active in platinum-pretreated advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers

Background In China, as in many developing countries, rapid increases in car ownership and new drivers have been coupled with a large trauma burden. The World Health Organization has identified key risk factors including speeding, drink-driving, helmet and restraint non-use, overloaded vehicles, and fatigued-driving in many rapidly motorising countries, including China. Levels of awareness of these risk factors among road users are not well understood. Although research identifies speeding as the major factor contributing to road crashes in China, there appears to be widespread acceptance of it among the broader community. Purpose To assess self-reported speeding and awareness of crash risk factors among Chinese drivers in Beijing. Methods Car drivers (n=299) were recruited from car washing locations and car parks to complete an anonymous questionnaire. Perceptions of the relative risk of drink-driving, fatigued-driving and speeding, and attitudes towards speeding and self-reported driving speeds were assessed. Results Overall, driving speeds of >10km/hr above posted limits on two road types (60 and 80 km/hour zones) were reported by more than one third of drivers. High-range speeding (i.e., >30 km/hour in a 60 km/hour zone and >40 km/hour in an 80 km/hour zone) was reported by approximately 5% of the sample. Attitudinal measures indicated that approximately three quarters of drivers reported attitudes that were not supportive of speeding. Drink-driving was identified as the most risky behaviour; 18% reported the perception that drink-driving had the same level of danger as speeding and 82% reported it as more dangerous. For fatigued-driving, 1% reported the perception that it was not as dangerous as speeding; 27.4% reported it as the same level and 71.6% perceived it as more dangerous. Conclusion Driving speeds well above posted speed limits were commonly reported by drivers. Speeding was rated as the least dangerous on-road behaviour, compared to drink-driving and fatigued-driving. One third of drivers reported regularly engaging in speeds at least 10km/hr above posted limits, despite speeding being the major reported contributor to crashes. Greater awareness of the risks associated with speeding is needed to help reduce the road trauma burden in China and promote greater speed limit compliance.

Comprehensive Addictive Behaviors and Disorders, Volume 3 : Interventions for Addiction

"Interventions for Addiction examines a wide range of responses to addictive behaviors, including psychosocial treatments, pharmacological treatments, provision of health care to addicted individuals, prevention, and public policy issues. Its focus is on the practical application of information covered in the two previous volumes of the series, Comprehensive Addictive Behaviors and Disorders. Readers will find information on treatments beyond commonly used methods, including Internet-based and faith-based therapies, and criminal justice interventions. The volume features extensive coverage of pharmacotherapies for each of the major drugs of abuse-including disulfiram, buprenorphine, naltrexone, and others-as well as for behavioral addictions. In considering public policy, the book examines legislative efforts, price controls, and limits on advertising, as well as World Health Organization (WHO) efforts. Interventions for Addiction is one of three volumes comprising the 2,500-page series, Comprehensive Addictive Behaviors and Disorders. This series provides the most complete collection of current knowledge on addictive behaviors and disorders to date. In short, it is the definitive reference work on addictions."--publisher website

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Nowhere to hide: informal disease surveillance networks tracing state behaviour

Since the revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, much attention has turned to how states, particularly developing states, will address core capacity requirements attached to the revised IHR. Primarily, how will states strengthen their capacity to identify and verify public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC)? Another important but under-examined aspect of the revised IHR is the empowerment of the World Health Organization (WHO) to act upon non-governmental reports of disease outbreaks. The revised IHR potentially marks a new chapter in the powers of ‘disease intelligence’ and how the WHO may press states to verify an outbreak event. This article seeks to understand whether internet surveillance response programs (ISRPs) are effective in ‘naming and shaming’ states into reporting disease outbreaks.

The duty to report disease outbreaks : of interest or value? Lessons from H5N1

Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003, it has been argued that there has been a substantial revision to the norm dictating the behaviour of states in the event of a disease outbreak. This article examines the evolution of the norm to ‘report and verify’ disease outbreaks and evaluates the extent to which this revised norm has begun to guide state behaviour. Examination of select East Asian countries affected by human infections of the H5N1 (avian influenza) virus strain reveals the need to further understand the mutually constitutive relationship between the value attached to prompt reporting against the capacity to report, and how states manage both in fulfilling their duty to report.