Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Risk assessment in occupational exposure to formaldehyde: differences between anatomy and pathology laboratories and formaldehyde-resins production

Formaldehyde (CH2O), the most simple and reactive of all aldehydes, is colorless, and readily polymerizing gas at normal temperature. The most extensive use is in production of resins and has an important application as a disinfectant and preservative, reason why relevant workplace exposure may also occur in pathology and anatomy laboratories and in mortuaries. A study was carried out in Portugal, in a formaldehyde production resins factory and in 10 pathology and anatomy laboratories. It was applied a risk assessment methodology based on Queensland University proposal that permitted to perform risk assessment for each activity developed in a work station. This methodology was applied in 83 different activities developed in the laboratories and in 18 activities of the factory. Also, Micronucleus Test was performed in lymphocytes from 30 factory workers and 50 laboratories workers.

Comparison of fungal contamination between hospitals and companies food units

A descriptive study was developed to compare air and surfaces fungal contamination in ten hospitals’ food units and two food units from companies. Fifty air samples of 250 litres through impaction method were collected from hospitals’ food units and 41 swab samples from surfaces were also collected, using a 10 by 10 cm square stencil. Regarding the two companies, ten air samples and eight surface samples were collected. Air and surface samples were collected in food storage facilities, kitchen, food plating and canteen. Outdoor air was also collected since this is the place regarded as a reference. Simultaneously, temperature, relative humidity and meal numbers were registered. Concerning air from hospitals’ food units, 32 fungal species were identified, being the two most commonly isolated genera Penicillium sp.

Correlation between HIV and HCV in Brazilian prisoners: evidence for parenteral transmission inside prison

OBJECTIVE: It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates. METHODS: A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment. RESULTS: Prevalence were: HIV -- 16%; HCV -- 34%; and syphilis -- 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49) and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36). Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration. CONCLUSIONS: The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.

The influence of relationship quality and culture in the relations between exporter and distributor : the case of portuguese exports to Angola

The objective of this research is to investigate the role of the relationship quality, cooperation and culture between Portuguese companies and their export market intermediaries in Angola. In particular, we aim to understand the importance that the quality of the relationship has in cooperation and the role of cultures in export activities. An important aspect of this study is precisely the fact that it includes an African country, where, in terms of the literature, there is a strong lack of studies. In terms of methodology we opted for qualitative analysis; we present the results of two case studies of Portuguese exporting companies and one case study of Angolan intermediate. In general, the results are that the business relationships are characterized by trust, commitment, cooperation, culture, similar values, as in the past, Angola belonged to Portugal there is easy communication because both countries share the same. Such factors will influence the trade relations between Portuguese exporters and their Angolan distributors.

OC/EC ratio observations in Europe: Re-thinking the approach for apportionment between primary and secondary organic carbon

This study explores a large set of OC and EC measurements in PM(10) and PM(2.5) aerosol samples, undertaken with a long term constant analytical methodology, to evaluate the capability of the OC/EC minimum ratio to represent the ratio between the OC and EC aerosol components resulting from fossil fuel combustion (OC(ff)/EC(ff)). The data set covers a wide geographical area in Europe, but with a particular focus upon Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, and includes a great variety of sites: urban (background, kerbside and tunnel), industrial, rural and remote. The highest minimum ratios were found in samples from remote and rural sites. Urban background sites have shown spatially and temporally consistent minimum ratios, of around 1.0 for PM(10) and 0.7 for PM(2.5).The consistency of results has suggested that the method could be used as a tool to derive the ratio between OC and EC from fossil fuel combustion and consequently to differentiate OC from primary and secondary sources. To explore this capability, OC and EC measurements were performed in a busy roadway tunnel in central Lisbon. The OC/EC ratio, which reflected the composition of vehicle combustion emissions, was in the range of 03-0.4. Ratios of OC/EC in roadside increment air (roadside minus urban background) in Birmingham, UK also lie within the range 03-0.4. Additional measurements were performed under heavy traffic conditions at two double kerbside sites located in the centre of Lisbon and Madrid. The OC/EC minimum ratios observed at both sites were found to be between those of the tunnel and those of urban background air, suggesting that minimum values commonly obtained for this parameter in open urban atmospheres over-predict the direct emissions of OC(ff) from road transport. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are explored. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison between deterministic and meta-heuristic methods applied to ancillary services dispatch

This paper proposes two meta-heuristics (Genetic Algorithm and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization) for solving a 15 bid-based case of Ancillary Services Dispatch in an Electricity Market. A Linear Programming approach is also included for comparison purposes. A test case based on the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is used to demonstrate that the use of meta-heuristics is suitable for solving this kind of optimization problem. Faster execution times and lower computational resources requirements are the most relevant advantages of the used meta-heuristics when compared with the Linear Programming approach.

Ancillary services market clearing simulation: a comparison between deterministic and heuristic methods

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tool must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Considerações prévias: distinctions between academic and intellectual goals for young children

Lilian Katz refere-se à crescente tendência nos Estados Unidos de introduzir objetivos de caráter “académico” nos programas destinados a crianças pequenas, em alternativa a programas centrados simplesmente no jogo espontâneo. Katz propõe uma terceira alternativa que desenvolva as competências de caráter intelectual nas crianças, de modo a estimular o desenvolvimento das suas mentes e as suas sensibilidades morais e estéticas. Katz propõe a introdução do trabalho de projeto com crianças desde os primeiros anos.

Population structure in high shore littorinids: contrast between riprap and rocky shores

World Congress of Malacology, Ponta Delgada, July 22-28, 2013.

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths

Interactions between physical and psychosocial demands of work associated to low back pain

OBJECTIVE: To examine the interaction between physical and psychosocial demands of work associated to low back pain. METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out in a stratified proportional random sample of 577 plastic industry workers in the metropolitan area of the city of Salvador, Northeast Brazil in 2002. An anonymous standard questionnaire was administered in the workplace by trained interviewers. Physical demands at work were self-rated on a 6-point numeric scale, with anchors at each end of the scale. Factor analysis was carried out on 11 physical demand variables to identify underlying factors. Psychosocial work demands were measured by demand, control and social support questions. Multivariate analysis was performed using the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: The factor analysis identified two physical work demand factors: material handling (factor 1) and repetitiveness (factor 2). The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that factor 1 was positively associated with low back pain (OR=2.35, 95% CI 1.50;3.66). No interaction was found between physical and psychosocial work demands but both were independently associated to low back pain. CONCLUSIONS: The study found independent effects of physical and psychosocial work demands on low back pain prevalence and emphasizes the importance of physical demands especially of material handling involving trunk bending forward and trunk rotation regardless of age, gender, and body fitness.

Do fatigue, physical activity, handgrip strength and quality of life change between pre and post liver transplant?

Analisar: níveis de fadiga, força de preensão, HRQoL, níveis de actividade física. Será que se alteram em doentes PAF após o transplante de fígado? Dado que os níveis de actividade física se encontram abaixo dos valores mínimos recomendados deveria ser encontrada uma estratégia de aumento do tempo dispendido na actividade física leve a moderada idealmente no PRÉ TRANSPLANTE.