Cambios en calidad de vida en Colombia durante 1997-2003: otra aproximación

Este trabajo analiza, estática y dinámicamente, los cambios en las condiciones de vida de los hogares en Colombia entre los años 1997 y 2003. Se propone un indicador alternativo y se contrasta a nivel nacional, regional y de centro poblacional con el Índice de Calidad de Vida (ICV) convencional. El indicador alterno reconoce la importancia que tienen aspectos de salud y el tiempo gastado en desplazamiento. Estas variables adicionales reducen el impacto de los aspectos concernientes al capital físico y distancian aún más las condiciones de las zonas rurales frente a las urbanas. La importancia de profundizar en las políticas de salud en las zonas rurales y en políticas que permitan disminuir el tiempo gastado en desplazamiento para ambas zonas se torna evidente.

Fast northward energy transfer in the Atlantic due to Agulhas rings

The adiabatic transit time of wave energy radiated by an Agulhas ring released in the South Atlantic Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a two-layer ocean model. Of particular interest is the arrival time of baroclinic energy in the northern part of the Atlantic, because it is related to variations in the meridional overturning circulation. The influence of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is also studied, because it allows for the conversion from barotropic to baroclinic wave energy and the generation of topographic waves. Barotropic energy from the ring is present in the northern part of the model basin within 10 days. From that time, the barotropic energy keeps rising to attain a maximum 500 days after initiation. This is independent of the presence or absence of a ridge in the model basin. Without a ridge in the model, the travel time of the baroclinic signal is 1300 days. This time is similar to the transit time of the ring from the eastern to the western coast of the model basin. In the presence of the ridge, the baroclinic signal arrives in the northern part of the model basin after approximately 10 days, which is the same time scale as that of the barotropic signal. It is apparent that the ridge can facilitate the energy conversion from barotropic to baroclinic waves and the slow baroclinic adjustment can be bypassed. The meridional overturning circulation, parameterized in two ways as either a purely barotropic or a purely baroclinic phenomenon, also responds after 1300 days. The ring temporarily increases the overturning strength. Th presence of the ridge does not alter the time scales.

Aircraft observations and model simulations of concentration and particle size distribution in the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland emitted a cloud of ash into the atmosphere during April and May 2010. Over the UK the ash cloud was observed by the FAAM BAe-146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft which was equipped with in-situ probes measuring the concentration of volcanic ash carried by particles of varying sizes. The UK Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud emitted by the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the period 4–18 May 2010. In the NAME simulations the processes controlling the evolution of the concentration and particle size distribution include sedimentation and deposition of particles, horizontal dispersion and vertical wind shear. For travel times between 24 and 72 h, a 1/t relationship describes the evolution of the concentration at the centre of the ash cloud and the particle size distribution remains fairly constant. Although NAME does not represent the effects of microphysical processes, it can capture the observed decrease in concentration with travel time in this period. This suggests that, for this eruption, microphysical processes play a small role in determining the evolution of the distal ash cloud. Quantitative comparison with observations shows that NAME can simulate the observed column-integrated mass if around 4% of the total emitted mass is assumed to be transported as far as the UK by small particles (< 30 μm diameter). NAME can also simulate the observed particle size distribution if a distal particle size distribution that contains a large fraction of < 10 μm diameter particles is used, consistent with the idea that phraetomagmatic volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, emit very fine particles.

Computing journey start times with recurrent traffic conditions

n this study, the authors discuss the effective usage of technology to solve the problem of deciding on journey start times for recurrent traffic conditions. The developed algorithm guides the vehicles to travel on more reliable routes that are not easily prone to congestion or travel delays, ensures that the start time is as late as possible to avoid the traveller waiting too long at their destination and attempts to minimise the travel time. Experiments show that in order to be more certain of reaching their destination on time, a traveller has to leave early and correspondingly arrive early, resulting in a large waiting time. The application developed here asks the user to set this certainty factor as per the task in hand, and computes the best start time and route.

Fast long-range connections in transportation networks

Multidimensional scaling is applied in order to visualize an analogue of the small-world effect implied by edges having different displacement velocities in transportation networks. Our findings are illustrated for two real-world systems, namely the London urban network (streets and underground) and the US highway network enhanced by some of the main US airlines routes. We also show that the travel time in these two networks is drastically changed by attacks targeting the edges with large displacement velocities. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Short Communication: A compelling argument for the gravity p-median model

The p-median model is used to locate P facilities to serve a geographically distributed population. Conventionally, it is assumed that the population always travels to the nearest facility. Drezner and Drezner (2006, 2007) provide three arguments on why this assumption might be incorrect, and they introduce the extended the gravity p-median model to relax the assumption. We favour the gravity p-median model, but we note that in an applied setting, Drezner and Drezner’s arguments are incomplete. In this communication, we point at the existence of a fourth compelling argument for the gravity p-median model.

On administrative borders and accessibility to public services: : The case of hospitals in Sweden.

An administrative border might hinder the optimal allocation of a given set of resources by restricting the flow of goods, services, and people. In this paper we address the question: Do administrative borders lead to poor accessibility to public service such as hospitals? In answering the question, we have examined the case of Sweden and its regional borders. We have used detailed data on the Swedish road network, its hospitals, and its geo-coded population. We have assessed the population’s spatial accessibility to Swedish hospitals by computing the inhabitants’ distance to the nearest hospital. We have also elaborated several scenarios ranging from strongly confining regional borders to no confinements of borders and recomputed the accessibility. Our findings imply that administrative borders are only marginally worsening the accessibility.

An empirical test of the gravity p-median model

A customer is presumed to gravitate to a facility by the distance to it and the attractiveness of it. However regarding the location of the facility, the presumption is that the customer opts for the shortest route to the nearest facility.This paradox was recently solved by the introduction of the gravity p-median model. The model is yet to be implemented and tested empirically. We implemented the model in an empirical problem of locating locksmiths, vehicle inspections, and retail stores ofv ehicle spare-parts, and we compared the solutions with those of the p-median model. We found the gravity p-median model to be of limited use for the problem of locating facilities as it either gives solutions similar to the p-median model, or it gives unstable solutions due to a non-concave objective function.

Distance measure and the p-median problem in rural areas

The p-median model is used to locate P facilities to serve a geographically distributed population. Conventionally, it is assumed that the population patronize the nearest facility and that the distance between the resident and the facility may be measured by the Euclidean distance. Carling, Han, and Håkansson (2012) compared two network distances with the Euclidean in a rural region witha sparse, heterogeneous network and a non-symmetric distribution of thepopulation. For a coarse network and P small, they found, in contrast to the literature, the Euclidean distance to be problematic. In this paper we extend their work by use of a refined network and study systematically the case when P is of varying size (2-100 facilities). We find that the network distance give as gooda solution as the travel-time network. The Euclidean distance gives solutions some 2-7 per cent worse than the network distances, and the solutions deteriorate with increasing P. Our conclusions extend to intra-urban location problems.

Testing the gravity p-median model empirically

Regarding the location of a facility, the presumption in the widely used p-median model is that the customer opts for the shortest route to the nearest facility. However, this assumption is problematic on free markets since the customer is presumed to gravitate to a facility by the distance to and the attractiveness of it. The recently introduced gravity p-median model offers an extension to the p-median model that account for this. The model is therefore potentially interesting, although it has not yet been implemented and tested empirically. In this paper, we have implemented the model in an empirical problem of locating vehicle inspections, locksmiths, and retail stores of vehicle spare-parts for the purpose of investigating its superiority to the p-median model. We found, however, the gravity p-median model to be of limited use for the problem of locating facilities as it either gives solutions similar to the p-median model, or it gives unstable solutions due to a non-concave objective function.

Sistemas inteligentes no transporte público coletivo por ônibus

Desenvolvimentos recentes na tecnologia de informação têm proporcionado grandes avanços no gerenciamento dos sistemas de transportes. No mundo já existem várias tecnologias testadas e em funcionamento que estão auxiliando na tarefa de controle da operação do transporte público por ônibus. Esses sistemas geram informações úteis para o planejamento e operação dos sistemas de transportes. No Brasil, os investimentos em tecnologias avançadas ainda são muito modestos e estão focados em equipamentos que auxiliam no controle da evasão da receita. No entanto, percebe-se um crescente interesse, por parte dos órgão gestores e operadores, em implementar sistemas automatizados para auxiliar na melhoria da qualidade dos sistemas de transportes e como forma de aumentar a produtividade do setor. Esse trabalho traz à discussão os sistemas avançados desenvolvidos para o transporte público coletivo, com o objetivo de definir o perfil da tecnologia avançada que está de acordo com as necessidades dos gestores e operadores brasileiros. Na realização do trabalho foi empregada uma ferramenta de planejamento denominada Desdobramento da Função Qualidade – QFD (Quality Function Deployment), bastante utilizada para direcionar os processos de manufatura e produto, e para hierarquizar os atributos considerados importantes para o gerenciamento do transporte público urbano no Brasil. O resultado do trabalho indica um grande interesse em implantar tecnologia avançada para auxiliar no monitoramento dos tempos de viagem e tempos perdidos durante a operação do transporte público. Essa tecnologia também é tida como capaz de melhorar o desempenho das linhas, através da manutenção da regularidade e pontualidade. Ainda, sistemas inteligentes que propiciam informações precisas aos usuários contribuem para melhorar a imagem do modal ônibus.

Conselhos municipais como canal de participaçãp pública: desafios para populações rurais na Amazônia: um estudo de caso sobre Juruti-PA.

Parte do processo de descentralização iniciado no Brasil no fim da década de 1980, o movimento por uma maior permeabilidade do Estado resultou na definição de Conselhos Gestores de Políticas como peças centrais para as políticas sociais em todo o país. No entanto, a heterogeneidade brasileira de proporções continentais solicita a adequação e o ajuste de políticas públicas e instituições para responderem àsdiversas realidades locais. Este trabalho foi realizado a partir de um estudo de caso exploratório que busca responder sobre o alcance dos Conselhos como arena para discussão, encaminhamento de demandas e solução de problemas da população que habita o espaço considerado “rural” de Juruti, município amazônico repleto de especificidades e desafios comuns à região. Assim, apesar de observarmos a existência de grupos, associações e espaços similares nas comunidades para discutir necessidades e endereçar as demandas por meio da atuação engajada de lideranças locais de diversos perfis, o que se percebe é que muitos desconhecem caminhos já institucionalizados (como os Conselhos Municipais) para encaminhar suas demandas. Com um movimento alheio aos espaços legalmente constituídos, as comunidades perdem a oportunidade de participar mais ativamente da formação de agenda do município, além de ficarem de fora dos mecanismos de controle social e acesso a recursos públicos. A realização de suas demandas se transforma em moeda de troca em vez de direitos reivindicados satisfeitos, se transforma em conquistas que perdem o papel simbólico no fortalecimento organizativo das comunidades.Em uma realidade rural amazônica como Juruti, parece fundamental discutir o chamado “trabalho de base”, o que implica em considerar variáveis de extrema relevância de custo e tempo de deslocamento, além da necessária regionalização dos interesses e demandas. Percebe-se imprescindível também a rediscussão sobre os parâmetros para a definição do “rural” no país, de forma a incluir os diversos Brasis e viabilizar diagnósticos que possibilitem que particularidades como as amazônicas se reflitam em políticas públicas, em modelos de gestão municipal e em espaços participativos adequados, que dialoguem com o local.

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Processamento e interpretação de dados 2D e 3D de GPR :aplicações no imageamento de feições kársticas e estruturas de dissolução no campo de petróleo de Fazenda Belém-CE

In Fazenda Belém oil field (Potiguar Basin, Ceará State, Brazil) occur frequently sinkholes and sudden terrain collapses associated to an unconsolidated sedimentary cap covering the Jandaíra karst. This research was carried out in order to understand the mechanisms of generation of these collapses. The main tool used was Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). This work is developed twofold: one aspect concerns methodology improvements in GPR data processing whilst another aspect concerns the geological study of the Jandaíra karst. This second aspect was strongly supported both by the analysis of outcropping karst structures (in another regions of Potiguar Basin) and by the interpretation of radargrams from the subsurface karst in Fazenda Belém. It was designed and tested an adequate flux to process GPR data which was adapted from an usual flux to process seismic data. The changes were introduced to take into account important differences between GPR and Reflection Seismic methods, in particular: poor coupling between source and ground, mixed phase of the wavelet, low signal-to-noise ratio, monochannel acquisition, and high influence of wave propagation effects, notably dispersion. High frequency components of the GPR pulse suffer more pronounced effects of attenuation than low frequency components resulting in resolution losses in radargrams. In Fazenda Belém, there is a stronger need of an suitable flux to process GPR data because both the presence of a very high level of aerial events and the complexity of the imaged subsurface karst structures. The key point of the processing flux was an improvement in the correction of the attenuation effects on the GPR pulse based on their influence on the amplitude and phase spectra of GPR signals. In low and moderate losses dielectric media the propagated signal suffers significant changes only in its amplitude spectrum; that is, the phase spectrum of the propagated signal remains practically unaltered for the usual travel time ranges. Based on this fact, it is shown using real data that the judicious application of the well known tools of time gain and spectral balancing can efficiently correct the attenuation effects. The proposed approach can be applied in heterogeneous media and it does not require the precise knowledge of the attenuation parameters of the media. As an additional benefit, the judicious application of spectral balancing promotes a partial deconvolution of the data without changing its phase. In other words, the spectral balancing acts in a similar way to a zero phase deconvolution. In GPR data the resolution increase obtained with spectral balancing is greater than those obtained with spike and predictive deconvolutions. The evolution of the Jandaíra karst in Potiguar Basin is associated to at least three events of subaerial exposition of the carbonatic plataform during the Turonian, Santonian, and Campanian. In Fazenda Belém region, during the mid Miocene, the Jandaíra karst was covered by continental siliciclastic sediments. These sediments partially filled the void space associated to the dissolution structures and fractures. Therefore, the development of the karst in this region was attenuated in comparison to other places in Potiguar Basin where this karst is exposed. In Fazenda Belém, the generation of sinkholes and terrain collapses are controlled mainly by: (i) the presence of an unconsolidated sedimentary cap which is thick enough to cover completely the karst but with sediment volume lower than the available space associated to the dissolution structures in the karst; (ii) the existence of important structural of SW-NE and NW-SE alignments which promote a localized increase in the hydraulic connectivity allowing the channeling of underground water, thus facilitating the carbonatic dissolution; and (iii) the existence of a hydraulic barrier to the groundwater flow, associated to the Açu-4 Unity. The terrain collapse mechanisms in Fazenda Belém occur according to the following temporal evolution. The meteoric water infiltrates through the unconsolidated sedimentary cap and promotes its remobilization to the void space associated with the dissolution structures in Jandaíra Formation. This remobilization is initiated at the base of the sedimentary cap where the flow increases its abrasion due to a change from laminar to turbulent flow regime when the underground water flow reaches the open karst structures. The remobilized sediments progressively fill from bottom to top the void karst space. So, the void space is continuously migrated upwards ultimately reaching the surface and causing the sudden observed terrain collapses. This phenomenon is particularly active during the raining season, when the water table that normally is located in the karst may be temporarily located in the unconsolidated sedimentary cap

Estudo sísmico no açude Tucunduba, Senador Sá, CE

The Tucunduba Dam, is west of Fortaleza, Ceará State. The seismic monitoring of the area, with an analogical station and seven digital stations, had beginning on June 11, 1997. The digital stations, operated from June to November 1997. The data collected in the period of digital monitoring was analyzed for determination of hypocenters, focal mechanisms, and shear-wave anisotropy analysis. For determination of hypocenters, it was possible to find an active zone of nearly 1 km in length, with depth between 4.5 and 5.2 km. A 60AZ/88SE fault plane was determined using the least-squares method and hypocenters of a selected set of 16 earthquakes recorded. Focal mechanisms were determined, in the composite fault plane solution, a strike-slip fault, trending nearly E-W, was found. Single fault plane solutions were obteined to some earthquakes presented mean values of 65 (azimuth), and 80 (dip). Shear-wave anisotropy was found in the data. Polarization directions and travel time delays, between S spliting waves, were determined. It was not possible to obtain any conclusion on the cause of the observed anisotropy. It is not clear if there is correlation between seismicity and mapped faults in the area, although the directions obtained starting from the hipocentros and focal mechanism are they are consistent with directions, observed in the area, photo, topographic and fractures directions observed in the area