Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Epävarmuuden vaikutus strategisiin alliansseihin vuosina 2000-2010

Tässä pro gradu –tutkielmassa perehdyttiin globaalin telekommunikaatiosektorin allianssitoimintaan vuosina 2000-2010. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tarkastella kvantitatiivisin menetelmin yrityskohtaisen ja makrotaloudellisen epävarmuuden vaikutusta solmittujen allianssien rakenteeseen, muotoon ja osapuolten maantieteelliseen sijaintiin. Lisäksi oli tarkoitus tutkia, kuinka allianssien vuosittainen määrä ja niihin osallistuvien yritysten määrä muuttuu epävarmuuden vaihtelujen myötä. Tutkielman empiirisen rungon muodosti sekundaarinen data SDC Platinum ja Thomson Datastream –tietokannoista. Lopulliseen aineistoon sisältyi 50 maailman suurinta telekommunikaatioyritystä useasta eri maasta. Tilastollinen analyysi suoritettiin logistisen ja paneelidataregression avulla. Tutkielman viidestä hypoteesista vain kaksi vahvistuivat osittain. Kyseiset hypoteesit olettivat epävarmuuden kasvun negatiivista vaikutusta vertikaalisten ja kotimaisten allianssien suosioon yrityksen silmissä. Muut regressiomallit tuottivat ristiriitaisia ja tilastollisesti ei-merkitseviä tuloksia.

The nature of communication structures of university students in an international web-based computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) course

Communication, the flow of ideas and information between individuals in a social context, is the heart of educational experience. Constructivism and constructivist theories form the foundation for the collaborative learning processes of creating and sharing meaning in online educational contexts. The Learning and Collaboration in Technology-enhanced Contexts (LeCoTec) course comprised of 66 participants drawn from four European universities (Oulu, Turku, Ghent and Ramon Llull). These participants were split into 15 groups with the express aim of learning about computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL). The Community of Inquiry model (social, cognitive and teaching presences) provided the content and tools for learning and researching the collaborative interactions in this environment. The sampled comments from the collaborative phase were collected and analyzed at chain-level and group-level, with the aim of identifying the various message types that sustained high learning outcomes. Furthermore, the Social Network Analysis helped to view the density of whole group interactions, as well as the popular and active members within the highly collaborating groups. It was observed that long chains occur in groups having high quality outcomes. These chains were also characterized by Social, Interactivity, Administrative and Content comment-types. In addition, high outcomes were realized from the high interactive cases and high-density groups. In low interactive groups, commenting patterned around the one or two central group members. In conclusion, future online environments should support high-order learning and develop greater metacognition and self-regulation. Moreover, such an environment, with a wide variety of problem solving tools, would enhance interactivity.

Numerical study of wedge supported oblique shock wave-oblique detonation wave transitions

The results of a numerical study of premixed Hydrogen-air flows ignition by an oblique shock wave (OSW) stabilized by a wedge are presented, in situations when initial and boundary conditions are such that transition between the initial OSW and an oblique detonation wave (ODW) is observed. More precisely, the objectives of the paper are: (i) to identify the different possible structures of the transition region that exist between the initial OSW and the resulting ODW and (ii) to evidence the effect on the ODW of an abrupt decrease of the wedge angle in such a way that the final part of the wedge surface becomes parallel to the initial flow. For such a geometrical configuration and for the initial and boundary conditions considered, the overdriven detonation supported by the initial wedge angle is found to relax towards a Chapman-Jouguet detonation in the region where the wedge surface is parallel to the initial flow. Computations are performed using an adaptive, unstructured grid, finite volume computer code previously developed for the sake of the computations of high speed, compressible flows of reactive gas mixtures. Physico-chemical properties are functions of the local mixture composition, temperature and pressure, and they are computed using the CHEMKIN-II subroutines.

Catalytic upgrading of biomass extractives to fine chemicals over supported ionic liquid catalysts (SILCAs)

Behovet av förnyelsebar energi ökar ständigt eftersom det finns en strävan att minska beroendet av fossila bränslen. Dessutom är tillgångar av fossila bränslen begränsade. Miljövänliga processer för bioraffinaderier erbjuder en stor möjlighet för produktion av energi, bränslen och kemikalier. Den finska och svenska skogsindustrin har en lång tradition i utnyttjandet av skogsbiomassor. Bioraffinaderier som integreras med pappers- och cellulosaindustrin kan frambringa både ekonomiska och ekologiska fördelar i framställning av traditionella och biobaserade produkter. I doktorsarbetet studerades omvandling av extraktivämnen till finkemikalier som kan användas t.ex. av läkemedelsindustrin. Extraktivämnen fås ur biomassa. I forskningsarbetet framställdes biobaserade finkemikalier med hjälp av katalysatorer som baserar sig på joniska vätskor. Biomassan består av cellulosa, hemicellulosa, lignin och extraktivämnen, vilka huvudsakligen är terpener, vaxer och fettsyror. Extraktivämen är vedens komponenter, som kan separeras ur vedmaterialet med hjälp av neutrala lösningsmedel. Joniska vätskekatalysatorer som var immobiliserade på fasta bärare utnyttjades för isomerisering av α,β-pinenoxider samt hydrogenering citral. Inverkan av joniska vätskor på katalysatorns aktivitet och reaktionernas produktfördelning undersöktes under varierande reaktionsbetingelser. Kinetiska modeller för pinenoxidens isomeriseringsreaktioner beskrev väl experimentellt upptäckta skillnader mellan olika katalysatorer. --------------------------------------------------- Uusiutuvan energian tarve on kasvussa, koska riippuvuutta fossiilisista polttoaineista pyritään vähentämään. Tämän lisäksi fossiilisten polttoaineiden varannot ovat rajalliset. Ympäristöystävälliset biojalostusprosessit ovat näin ollen suuri mahdollisuus energian, polttoaineiden ja kemikaalien tuotannossa. Suomen ja Ruotsin metsäteollisuudella on pitkät perinteet metsäbiomassojen hyödyntämisessä. Paperi- ja selluteollisuuden yhteyteen integroiduilla biojalostamoilla voidaan luoda taloudellisia ja ympäristöllisiä etuja sekä perinteisten että biopohjaisten tuotteiden valmistuksessa. Väitöstyössä on tutkittu biomassan uuteaineiden kemiallista muuntamista hienokemikaaleiksi, joita voidaan käyttää esimerkiksi lääkeaineteollisuudessa. Biopohjaisia hienokemikaaleja on valmistettu biomassan uuteaineista ionisiin nesteisiin perustuvilla katalyyteillä. Biomassa koostuu selluloosasta, hemiselluloosasta, ligniinistä sekä uuteaineista, jotka ovat pääosin terpeenejä, vahoja tai rasvahappoja. Uuteaineet ovat puun komponentteja, jotka voidaan erottaa puusta neutraalien liuottimien avulla. Kiinteän kantajan päälle immobilisoituja ionisia nestekatalyyttejä (Supported Ionic Liquid Catalyst) hyödynnettiin α,β-pineenioksidien isomerisointireaktioissa sekä sitraalin vedytysreaktioissa. Ionisten nesteiden vaikutusta katalyyttien aktiivisuuteen sekä reaktioiden tuotejakaumaan tutkittiin erilaisissa reaktio-olosuhteissa. Pineenioksidien isomerisointireaktioiden kineettiset mallit kuvasivat hyvin kokeellisesti todettuja katalyyttien eroavaisuuksia.

alpha-Tocopherol enhances tumour growth inhibition by cis-dichlorodiammine platinum (II)

Present studies indicate that alpha-tocopherol enhances the efficacy of cisplatin as demonstrated by inoculation of Dalton's lymphoma cells incubated with either cisplatin (5 or 10 µg/ml) alone or cisplatin + alpha-tocopherol (25 or 50 µg/ml) into C3H/He mice. Tumour cells (3 x 10(6) cells/mouse) incubated with cisplatin grow slowly in syngeneic mice as indicated by the late appearance of tumour. However, mice failed to develop tumour when inoculated with tumour cells incubated with cisplatin + alpha-tocopherol. When the animals were challenged with tumour cells (3 x 10(6) cells/mouse) on the 15th day after the initial inoculation, 30-50% survived more than 60 days, with 10% tumour-free survivors being observed in some groups. Antitumour activity was higher in mice receiving lymphoma cells (3 x 10(6) cells/mouse) preincubated with cisplatin + alpha-tocopherol compared to cisplatin alone. Tumour-bearing mice receiving cisplatin in combination with different concentrations of alpha-tocopherol exhibited significantly higher (P<0.001) intratumour platinum content (123-306%) but without any change in the kidney platinum content as compared to those receiving cisplatin (5 or 10 µg/ml) alone. Enhancement of cisplatin-induced tumour growth inhibition is probably due to the modulation of tumour cell membrane permeability by alpha-tocopherol. alpha-Tocopherol might increase the influx of cisplatin into tumour cells, causing the DNA repair machinery to be less efficient due to increased efficiency of adduct formation in the DNA molecule. This effect of alpha-tocopherol can render cisplatin more effective as an antitumour agent.

Measurement of epidermal thickness in a patient with psoriasis by computer-supported image analysis

The aim of the present study was to measure full epidermal thickness, stratum corneum thickness, rete length, dermal papilla widening and suprapapillary epidermal thickness in psoriasis patients using a light microscope and computer-supported image analysis. The data obtained were analyzed in terms of patient age, type of psoriasis, total body surface area involvement, scalp and nail involvement, duration of psoriasis, and family history of the disease. The study was conducted on 64 patients and 57 controls whose skin biopsies were examined by light microscopy. The acquired microscopic images were transferred to a computer and measurements were made using image analysis. The skin biopsies, taken from different body areas, were examined for different parameters such as epidermal, corneal and suprapapillary epidermal thickness. The most prominent increase in thickness was detected in the palmar region. Corneal thickness was more pronounced in patients with scalp involvement than in patients without scalp involvement (t = -2.651, P = 0.008). The most prominent increase in rete length was observed in the knees (median: 491 µm, t = 10.117, P = 0.000). The difference in rete length between patients with a positive and a negative family history was significant (t = -3.334, P = 0.03), being 27% greater in psoriasis patients without a family history. The differences in dermal papilla distances among patients were very small. We conclude that microscope-supported thickness measurements provide objective results.

Transformation of carbon dioxide to diethyl carbonate over ceria and ceria-supported catalysts

Carbon dioxide is regarded, nowadays, as a primary anthropogenic greenhouse gas leading to global warming. Hence, chemical fixation of CO2 has attracted much attention as a possible way to manufacture useful chemicals. One of the most interesting approaches of CO2 transformations is the synthesis of organic carbonates. Since conventional production technologies of these compounds involve poisonous phosgene and carbon monoxide, there is a need to develop novel synthetic methods that would better match the principles of "Green Chemistry" towards protection of the environment and human health. Over the years, synthesis of dimethyl carbonate was under intensive investigation in the academia and industry. Therefore, this study was entirely directed towards equally important homologue of carbonic esters family namely diethyl carbonate (DEC). Novel synthesis method of DEC starting from ethanol and CO2 over heterogeneous catalysts based on ceria (CeO2) was studied in the batch reactor. However, the plausible drawback of the reaction is thermodynamic limitations. The calculated values revealed that the reaction is exothermic (ΔrHØ298K = ─ 16.6 J/ ) and does not occur spontaneously at rooms temperature (ΔrGØ 298K = 35.85 kJ/mol). Moreover, co-produced water easily shifts the reaction equilibrium towards reactants excluding achievement of high yields of the carbonate. Therefore, in-situ dehydration has been applied using butylene oxide as a chemical water trap. A 9-fold enhancement in the amount of DEC was observed upon introduction of butylene oxide to the reaction media in comparison to the synthetic method without any water removal. This result confirms that reaction equilibrium was shifted in favour of the desired product and thermodynamic boundaries of the reaction were suppressed by using butylene oxide as a water scavenger. In order to obtain insight into the reaction network, the kinetic experiments were performed over commercial cerium oxide. On the basis of the selectivity/conversion profile it could be concluded that the one-pot synthesis of diethyl carbonate from ethanol, CO2 and butylene oxide occurs via a consecutive route involving cyclic carbonate as an intermediate. Since commercial cerium oxide suffers from the deactivation problems already after first reaction cycle, in-house CeO2 was prepared applying room temperature precipitation technique. Variation of the synthesis parameters such as synthesis time, calcination temperature and pH of the reaction solution turned to have considerable influence on the physico-chemical and catalytic properties of CeO2. The increase of the synthesis time resulted in high specific surface area of cerium oxide and catalyst prepared within 50 h exhibited the highest amount of basic sites on its surface. Furthermore, synthesis under pH 11 yielded cerium oxide with the highest specific surface area, 139 m2/g, among all prepared catalysts. Moreover, CeO2─pH11 catalyst demonstrated the best catalytic activity and 2 mmol of DEC was produced at 180 oC and 9 MPa of the final reaction pressure. In addition, ceria-supported onto high specific surface area silicas MCM-41, SBA-15 and silica gel were synthesized and tested for the first time as catalysts in the synthesis of DEC. Deposition of cerium oxide on MCM-41 and SiO2 supports resulted in a substantial increase of the alkalinity of the carrier materials. Hexagonal SBA-15 modified with 20 wt % of ceria exhibited the second highest basicity in the series of supported catalysts. Evaluation of the catalytic activity of ceria-supported catalysts showed that reaction carried out over 20 wt % CeO2-SBA-15 generated the highest amount of DEC.

Early responses of the STAT3 pathway to platinum drugs are associated with cisplatin resistance in epithelial ovarian cancer

Cisplatin resistance remains one of the major obstacles when treating epithelial ovarian cancer. Because oxaliplatin and nedaplatin are effective against cisplatin-resistant ovarian cancer in clinical trials and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) is associated with cisplatin resistance, we investigated whether overcoming cisplatin resistance by oxaliplatin and nedaplatin was associated with the STAT3 pathway in ovarian cancer. Alamar blue, clonogenic, and wound healing assays, and Western blot analysis were used to compare the effects of platinum drugs in SKOV-3 cells. At an equitoxic dose, oxaliplatin and nedaplatin exhibited similar inhibitory effects on colony-forming ability and greater inhibition on cell motility than cisplatin in ovarian cancer. Early in the time course of drug administration, cisplatin increased the expression of pSTAT3 (Tyr705), STAT3α, VEGF, survivin, and Bcl-XL, while oxaliplatin and nedaplatin exhibited the opposite effects, and upregulated pSTAT3 (Ser727) and STAT3β. The STAT3 pathway responded early to platinum drugs associated with cisplatin resistance in epithelial ovarian cancer and provided a rationale for new therapeutic strategies to reverse cisplatin resistance.

From restrained golden age to creeping platinum age: A periodization of Latin American development in the Robinsonian tradition

ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes Joan Robinson's growth model, and then adapted in order to provide an exploratory taxonomy of Growth Eras. The Growth Eras or Ages were for Robinson a way to provide logical connections among output growth, capital accumulation, the degree of thriftiness, the real wage and illustrate a catalogue of growth possibilities. This modified taxonomy follows the spirit of Robinson's work, but it takes different theoretical approaches, which imply that some of her classifications do not fit perfectly the ones here suggested. Latin America has moved from a Golden Age in the 1950s and 1960s, to a Leaden Age in the 1980s, having two traverse periods, one in which the process of growth and industrialization accelerated in the late 1960s and early 1970s, which is here referred to as a Galloping Platinum Age, and one in which a process of deindustrialization, and reprimarization and maquilization of the productive structure took place, starting in the 1990s, which could be referred to as a Creeping Platinum Age.

FT-IR and MAS NMR analysis of montmorillonite K10 supported MF2 reagents and their activity as catalysis /

ZnF2, CdF2, and CUF2 have been adsorbed onto the surface of montmorillonite K10, and the infrared and 19F, 27 AI, and 29Si MAS NMR spectra of the reagents over a range of loadings have been obtained. CUF2 was observed to attack the Si02 layer and form the complex CuSiF6, Zn F2 tends to attack the aluminium oxide layer, in which Zn isomorphously replaces AI, and forms AIF3 and AIF4 - complexes. All the spectroscopic evidence ruled out the formation of any AI-F and/or Si-F free species as CdF2 is adsorbed on the surface of montmorillonite K10. The reactivity of MF2-K10 reagents towards Friedel-Crafts benzylation of benzene with benzyl chloride varied from one reagent to another. ZnF2-K10 was observed to be the most reactive and CUF2 was the least reactive.

Palladium and platinum complexes of vitamin Bâ

Palladium and platinum complexes of pyridoxamine, pyridoxine and pyridoxal have been prepared. The structures of the complexes PtCI2PM.H20, trans-PdC12 (PN)2 and [PLH+ ]2[PtC16] 2- ,H20 have been determined by use of single crystal x-ray studies. The compounds PdC12PH, trans-PdC12 (PN) 2 , cis-PdCI2 (PN)2 and cis PdC12 (PL)2 were also studied by use of carbon-13 nmr spectroscopy. All the complexes have also been characterised by use of infrared spectral studies. In the complexes, PtCI2PM.H20 and PdC12PM, the ligand pyridoxamine is chela ted to the metal through the aminomethyl nitrogen and the phenolate oxygen atoms whereas in the complexes, trans-PdCI2 (PN)2' cis-PdCI2 (PN)2 and cis-PdC12 (PL)2 the vitamin B6 ligands are coordinated to the metal through the pyridine ring nitrogen. The compounds [PLH+ ]2[PtCI6] 2- .H20 and [PMH2] 2+ [PdCI4] 2- .H20have no direct metal-ligand bonding, In all the complexes, the metal maintains a square planar coordination except in [PLH +] 2[PtCI6] 2- ,H20 where the metal is octahedrally coordinated. PH pyridoxamine [PMH ] 2+ = diprotonated pyridoxamine 2 PN = pyridoxine PL pyridoxal PLH+ protonated pyridoxal

Sol-gel routes to supported Friedel-Crafts alkylation catalysts

Aluminosilicate catalysts containing supported ZnCl2 and metal fluoride salts have been prepared using a sol-gel based route, tested and characterized. The activities of these ZnCl2 + metal fluoride catalysts, while greater than "Clayzic" (ZnCI2 supported on montmorillonite KIO) are not as good as supported ZnCl2 only supported on aluminosilicate. Alumina supports have also been prepared via a sol-gel route using various chemical additives to generate a mesoporous structure, loaded with ZnCl2 and tested for activity. The activities for these alumina-supported catalysts are also significantly higher than that of "Clayzic", an effective Friedel-Crafts catalyst. Characterizations of these two types of catalysts were done by magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR, diffuse reflectance infrared (DRIFT) spectroscopy and additionally for the alumina nitrogen adsorption studies were done. Supported aluminum trichloride was also investigated as an alternative to the traditional use of aluminum trichloride.

Narrative development and supported employment of persons with severe mental illness

Essai présenté à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l’obtention du grade de Doctorat en psychologie option psychologie clinique