Nonlinear drillstring dynamics analysis

This paper studies the dynamical response of a rotary drilling system with a drag bit, using a lumped parameter model that takes into consideration the axial and torsional vibration modes of the bit. These vibrations are coupled through a bit-rock interaction law. At the bit-rock interface, the cutting process introduces a state-dependent delay, while the frictional process is responsible for discontinuous right-hand sides in the equations governing the motion of the bit. This complex system is characterized by a fast axial dynamics compared to the slow torsional dynamics. A dimensionless formulation exhibits a large parameter in the axial equation, enabling a two-time-scales analysis that uses a combination of averaging methods and a singular perturbation approach. An approximate model of the decoupled axial dynamics permits us to derive a pseudoanalytical expression of the solution of the axial equation. Its averaged behavior influences the slow torsional dynamics by generating an apparent velocity weakening friction law that has been proposed empirically in earlier work. The analytical expression of the solution of the axial dynamics is used to derive an approximate analytical expression of the velocity weakening friction law related to the physical parameters of the system. This expression can be used to provide recommendations on the operating parameters and the drillstring or the bit design in order to reduce the amplitude of the torsional vibrations. Moreover, it is an appropriate candidate model to replace empirical friction laws encountered in torsional models used for control. © 2009 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

A time-domain approach to the analysis and modeling of on-body propagation characteristics using synchronized measurements at 2.45 GHz

Modeling of on-body propagation channels is of paramount importance to those wishing to evaluate radio channel performance for wearable devices in body area networks (BANs). Difficulties in modeling arise due to the highly variable channel conditions related to changes in the user's state and local environment. This study characterizes these influences by using time-series analysis to examine and model signal characteristics for on-body radio channels in user stationary and mobile scenarios in four different locations: anechoic chamber, open office area, hallway, and outdoor environment. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions are reported and shown to be dependent on body state and surroundings. Autoregressive (AR) transfer functions are used to perform time-series analysis and develop models for fading in various on-body links. Due to the non-Gaussian nature of the logarithmically transformed observed signal envelope in the majority of mobile user states, a simple method for reproducing the failing based on lognormal and Nakagami statistics is proposed. The validity of the AR models is evaluated using hypothesis testing, which is based on the Ljung-Box statistic, and the estimated distributional parameters of the simulator output compared with those from experimental results.

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Modeling image motion in airborne Three-Line-Array (TLA) push-broom cameras

This paper presents an image motion model for airborne three-line-array (TLA) push-broom cameras. Both aircraft velocity and attitude instability are taken into account in modeling image motion. Effects of aircraft pitch, roll, and yaw on image motion are analyzed based on geometric relations in designated coordinate systems. The image motion is mathematically modeled by image motion velocity multiplied by exposure time. Quantitative analysis to image motion velocity is then conducted in simulation experiments. The results have shown that image motion caused by aircraft velocity is space invariant while image motion caused by aircraft attitude instability is more complicated. Pitch,roll and yaw all contribute to image motion to different extents. Pitch dominates the along-track image motion and both roll and yaw greatly contribute to the cross-track image motion. These results provide a valuable base for image motion compensation to ensure high accuracy imagery in aerial photogrammetry.

Analysis of the Influence of Sparkout Time on Grinding Using Several Lubrication/Cooling Methods

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A space-time analysis of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis cases in Texas from 2000 to 2004

Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^

Cost analysis of opt-in consent procedures for the Texas statewide immunization information system, ImmTrac

Background. Childhood immunization programs have dramatically reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine-preventable diseases. Proper documentation of immunizations that have been administered is essential to prevent duplicate immunization of children. To help improve documentation, immunization information systems (IISs) have been developed. IISs are comprehensive repositories of immunization information for children residing within a geographic region. The two models for participation in an IIS are voluntary inclusion, or "opt-in," and voluntary exclusion, or "opt-out." In an opt-in system, consent must be obtained for each participant, conversely, in an opt-out IIS, all children are included unless procedures to exclude the child are completed. Consent requirements for participation vary by state; the Texas IIS, ImmTrac, is an opt-in system.^ Objectives. The specific objectives are to: (1) Evaluate the variance among the time and costs associated with collecting ImmTrac consent at public and private birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area; (2) Estimate the total costs associated with collecting ImmTrac consent at selected public and private birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area; (3) Describe the alternative opt-out process for collecting ImmTrac consent at birth and discuss the associated cost savings relative to an opt-in system.^ Methods. Existing time-motion studies (n=281) conducted between October, 2006 and August, 2007 at 8 birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area were used to assess the time and costs associated with obtaining ImmTrac consent at birth. All data analyzed are deidentified and contain no personal information. Variations in time and costs at each location were assessed and total costs per child and costs per year were estimated. The cost of an alternative opt-out system was also calculated.^ Results. The median time required by birth registrars to complete consent procedures varied from 72-285 seconds per child. The annual costs associated with obtaining consent for 388,285 newborns in ImmTrac's opt-in consent process were estimated at $702,000. The corresponding costs of the proposed opt-out system were estimated to total $194,000 per year. ^ Conclusions. Substantial variation in the time and costs associated with completion of ImmTrac consent procedures were observed. Changing to an opt-out system for participation could represent significant cost savings. ^

Temporal segmentation tool for high-quality real time video editing software

The increasing use of video editing software requires faster and more efficient editing tools. As a first step, these tools perform a temporal segmentation in shots that allows a later building of indexes describing the video content. Here, we propose a novel real-time high-quality shot detection strategy, suitable for the last generation of video editing software requiring both low computational cost and high quality results. While abrupt transitions are detected through a very fast pixel-based analysis, gradual transitions are obtained from an efficient edge-based analysis. Both analyses are reinforced with a motion analysis that helps to detect and discard false detections. This motion analysis is carried out exclusively over a reduced set of candidate transitions, thus maintaining the computational requirements demanded by new applications to fulfill user needs.

Elucidation of a PTS–Carbohydrate Chemotactic Signal Pathway in Escherichia coli Using a Time-resolved Behavioral Assay

Chemotaxis of Escherichia coli toward phosphotransferase systems (PTSs)–carbohydrates requires phosphoenolpyruvate-dependent PTSs as well as the chemotaxis response regulator CheY and its kinase, CheA. Responses initiated by flash photorelease of a PTS substrates d-glucose and its nonmetabolizable analog methyl α-d-glucopyranoside were measured with 33-ms time resolution using computer-assisted motion analysis. This, together with chemotactic mutants, has allowed us to map out and characterize the PTS chemotactic signal pathway. The responses were absent in mutants lacking the general PTS enzymes EI or HPr, elevated in PTS transport mutants, retarded in mutants lacking CheZ, a catalyst of CheY autodephosphorylation, and severely reduced in mutants with impaired methyl-accepting chemotaxis protein (MCP) signaling activity. Response kinetics were comparable to those triggered by MCP attractant ligands over most of the response range, the most rapid being 11.7 ± 3.1 s−1. The response threshold was <10 nM for glucose. Responses to methyl α-d-glucopyranoside had a higher threshold, commensurate with a lower PTS affinity, but were otherwise kinetically indistinguishable. These facts provide evidence for a single pathway in which the PTS chemotactic signal is relayed rapidly to MCP–CheW–CheA signaling complexes that effect subsequent amplification and slower CheY dephosphorylation. The high sensitivity indicates that this signal is generated by transport-induced dephosphorylation of the PTS rather than phosphoenolpyruvate consumption.

The analysis of economic time series.

"Originally published as Monograph no.6 of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics."

Seasonal analysis of economic time series /

Mode of access: Internet.

Analysis and modelling of muscles motion during whole body vibration

The aim of the study is to characterize the local muscles motion in individuals undergoing whole body mechanical stimulation. In this study we aim also to evaluate how subject positioning modifies vibration dumping, altering local mechanical stimulus. Vibrations were delivered to subjects by the use of a vibrating platform, while stimulation frequency was increased linearly from 15 to 60Hz. Two different subject postures were here analysed. Platform and muscles motion were monitored using tiny MEMS accelerometers; a contra lateral analysis was also presented. Muscle motion analysis revealed typical displacement trajectories: motion components were found not to be purely sinusoidal neither in phase to each other. Results also revealed a mechanical resonant-like behaviour at some muscles, similar to a second-order system response. Resonance frequencies and dumping factors depended on subject and his positioning. Proper mechanical stimulation can maximize muscle spindle solicitation, which may produce a more effective muscle activation. © 2010 M. Cesarelli et al.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Dynamic Match Analysis

Recent technological development has enabled research- ers to gather data from different performance scenarios while considering players positioning and action events within a specific time frame. This technology varies from global positioning systems to radio frequency devices and computer vision tracking, to name the most common, and aims to collect players’ time motion data and enable the dynamical analysis of performance. Team sports—and in particular, invasion games—present a complex dynamic by nature based on the interaction between 2 opposing sides trying to outperform 1 another. During match and training situations, players’ actions are coupled to their performance context at different interaction levels. As expected, ball, teammates’, and opponents’ positioning play an important role in this interaction process. But other factors, such as final score, teams’ development level, and players’ expertise, seem to affect the match dynamics. In this symposium, we will focus on how different constraints affect invasion games dynamics during both match and training situations. This relation will be established while underpinning the importance of these effects to game teaching and performance optimization. Regarding the match, different performance indicators based on spatial-temporal relations between players and teams will be presented to reveal the interaction processes that form the crucial component of game analysis. Considering the training, this symposium will address the relationship of small-sided games with full- sized matches and will present how players’ dynamical interaction affects different performance indicators.

Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].