Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Lock Acquisition and Sensitivity Analysis of Advanced LIGO Interferometers

Laser interferometer gravitational wave observatory (LIGO) consists of two complex large-scale laser interferometers designed for direct detection of gravitational waves from distant astrophysical sources in the frequency range 10Hz - 5kHz. Direct detection of space-time ripples will support Einstein's general theory of relativity and provide invaluable information and new insight into physics of the Universe.

Initial phase of LIGO started in 2002, and since then data was collected during six science runs. Instrument sensitivity was improving from run to run due to the effort of commissioning team. Initial LIGO has reached designed sensitivity during the last science run, which ended in October 2010.

In parallel with commissioning and data analysis with the initial detector, LIGO group worked on research and development of the next generation detectors. Major instrument upgrade from initial to advanced LIGO started in 2010 and lasted till 2014.

This thesis describes results of commissioning work done at LIGO Livingston site from 2013 until 2015 in parallel with and after the installation of the instrument. This thesis also discusses new techniques and tools developed at the 40m prototype including adaptive filtering, estimation of quantization noise in digital filters and design of isolation kits for ground seismometers.

The first part of this thesis is devoted to the description of methods for bringing interferometer to the linear regime when collection of data becomes possible. States of longitudinal and angular controls of interferometer degrees of freedom during lock acquisition process and in low noise configuration are discussed in details.

Once interferometer is locked and transitioned to low noise regime, instrument produces astrophysics data that should be calibrated to units of meters or strain. The second part of this thesis describes online calibration technique set up in both observatories to monitor the quality of the collected data in real time. Sensitivity analysis was done to understand and eliminate noise sources of the instrument.

Coupling of noise sources to gravitational wave channel can be reduced if robust feedforward and optimal feedback control loops are implemented. The last part of this thesis describes static and adaptive feedforward noise cancellation techniques applied to Advanced LIGO interferometers and tested at the 40m prototype. Applications of optimal time domain feedback control techniques and estimators to aLIGO control loops are also discussed.

Commissioning work is still ongoing at the sites. First science run of advanced LIGO is planned for September 2015 and will last for 3-4 months. This run will be followed by a set of small instrument upgrades that will be installed on a time scale of few months. Second science run will start in spring 2016 and last for about 6 months. Since current sensitivity of advanced LIGO is already more than factor of 3 higher compared to initial detectors and keeps improving on a monthly basis, upcoming science runs have a good chance for the first direct detection of gravitational waves.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Structural requirements for catalysis: studies on RTEM-1 β-lactamase

β-lactamases are a group of enzymes that confer resistance to penam and cephem antibiotics by hydrolysis of the β-lactam ring, thereby inactivating the antibiotic. Crystallographic and computer modeling studies of RTEM-1 β-lactamase have indicated that Asp 132, a strictly conserved residue among the class A β-lactamases, appears to be involved in substrate binding, catalysis, or both. To study the contribution of residue 132 to β-lactamase function, site saturation mutagenesis was used to generate mutants coding for all 20 amino acids at position 132. Phenotypic screening of all mutants indicated that position 132 is very sensitive to amino acid changes, with only N132C, N132D, N132E, and N132Q showing any appreciable activity. Kinetic analysis of three of these mutants showed increases in K_M, along with substantial decreases in k_(cat). Efforts to trap a stable acyl-enzyme intermediate were unsuccessfuL These results indicate that residue 132 is involved in substrate binding, as well as catalysis, and supports the involvement of this residue in acylation as suggested by Strynadka et al.

Crystallographic and computer modeling studies of RTEM-1 β-lactamase have indicated that Lys 73 and Glu 166, two strictly conserved residues among the class A β-lactamases, appear to be involved in substrate binding, catalysis, or both. To study the contribution of these residues to β-lactamase function, site saturation mutagenesis was used to generate mutants coding for all 20 amino acids at positions 73 and 166. Then all 400 possible combinations of mutants were created by combinatorial mutagenesis. The colonies harboring the mutants were screened for growth in the presence of ampicillin. The competent colonys' DNA were sequenced, and kinetic parameters investigated. It was found that lysine is essential at position 73, and that position 166 only tolerated fairly conservative changes (Aspartic acid, Histidine, and Tyrosine). These functional mutants exhibited decreased kcat's, but K_M was close to wild-type levels. The results of the combinatorial mutagenesis experiments indicate that Lysis absolutely required for activity at position 73; no mutation at residue 166 can compensate for loss of the long side chain amine. The active mutants found--K73K/E166D, K73KIE166H, and K73KIE166Y were studied by kinetic analysis. These results reaffirmed the function of residue 166 as important in catalysis, specifically deacylation.

The identity of the residue responsible for enhancing the active site serine (Ser 70) in RTEM-1 β-lactamase has been disputed for some time. Recently, analysis of a crystal structure of RTEM-1 β-lactamase with covalently bound intermediate was published, and it was suggested that Lys 73, a strictly conserved residue among the class A β-lactamases, was acting as a general base, activating Ser 70. For this to be possible, the pK_a of Lys 73 would have to be depressed significantly. In an attempt to assay the pK_a of Lys 73, the mutation K73C was made. This mutant protein can be reacted with 2-bromoethylamine, and activity is restored to near wild type levels. ^(15)N-2-bromoethylamine hydrobromide and ^(13)C-2-bromoethylamine hydrobromide were synthesized. Reacting these compounds with the K73C mutant gives stable isotopic enrichment at residue 73 in the form of aminoethylcysteine, a lysine homologue. The pK_a of an amine can be determined by NMR titration, following the change in chemical shift of either the ^(15)N-amine nuclei or adjacent Be nuclei as pH is changed. Unfortunately, low protein solubility, along with probable label scrambling in the Be experiment, did not permit direct observation of either the ^(15)N or ^(13)C signals. Indirect detection experiments were used to observe the protons bonded directly to the ^(13)C atoms. Two NMR signals were seen, and their chemical shift change with pH variation was noted. The peak which was determined to correspond to the aminoethylcysteine residue shifted from 3.2 ppm down to 2.8 ppm over a pH range of 6.6 to 12.5. The pK_a of the amine at position 73 was determined to be ~10. This indicates that residue 73 does not function as a general base in the acylation step of the reaction. However the experimental measurement takes place in the absence of substrate. Since the enzyme undergoes conformational changes upon substrate binding, the measured pK_a of the free enzyme may not correspond to the pK_a of the enzyme substrate complex.

The federal photovoltaics commercialization program

The dissertation presents a political and economic history of the federal government's program to commercialize photovoltaic energy for terrestrial use. Chapter 1 is a detailed history of the program. Chapter 2 is a brief review of the Congressional roll call voting literature. Chapter 3 develops PV benefit measures at the state and Congressional district level necessary for an econometric analysis of PV roll call voting. Chapter 4 presents the econometric analysis.

Because PV power was considerably more expensive than conventional power, the program was designed to make PV a significant power source in the long term, emphasizing research and development, although sizeable amounts have been spent for procurement (direct government purchases and indirectly through tax credits). The decentralized R and D program pursued alternative approaches in parallel, with subsequent funding dependent on earlier progress. Funding rose rapidly in the 1970s before shrinking in the 1980s. Tax credits were introduced in 1978, with the last of the credits due to expire this year.

Major issues in the program have been the appropriate magnitude of demonstrations and government procurement, whether decentralized, residential use or centralized utility generation would first be economic, the role of storage in PV, and the role of PV in a utility's generation mix.

Roll call voting on solar energy (all votes analyzed occurred from 1975-1980) was influenced in a cross-sectional sense by all the influences predicted: party and ideology, local economic benefits of the technology, local PV federal spending and manufacturing, and appropriations committee membership. The cross-sectional results for ideology are consistent with the strongly ideological character of solar energy politics and the timing of funding increases and decreases discussed in Chapter 1. Local PV spending and manufacturing was less significant than ideology or the economic benefits of the technology. Because time series analysis of the votes was not possible, it is not possible to test the role of economic benefits to the nation as a whole.