A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Agent-based modelling and simulation of airplane boarding processes

Passenger flow simulations are an important tool for designing and managing airports. This thesis examines the different boarding strategies for the Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircraft in order to investigate their current performance and to determine minimum boarding times. The most optimal strategies have been discovered and new strategies that are more efficient are proposed. The methods presented offer reduced aircraft boarding times which plays an important role for reducing the overall aircraft Turn Time for an airline.

An application of fuzzy DL-Based semantic perception to soil container classification

Semantic perception and object labeling are key requirements for robots interacting with objects on a higher level. Symbolic annotation of objects allows the usage of planning algorithms for object interaction, for instance in a typical fetchand-carry scenario. In current research, perception is usually based on 3D scene reconstruction and geometric model matching, where trained features are matched with a 3D sample point cloud. In this work we propose a semantic perception method which is based on spatio-semantic features. These features are defined in a natural, symbolic way, such as geometry and spatial relation. In contrast to point-based model matching methods, a spatial ontology is used where objects are rather described how they "look like", similar to how a human would described unknown objects to another person. A fuzzy based reasoning approach matches perceivable features with a spatial ontology of the objects. The approach provides a method which is able to deal with senor noise and occlusions. Another advantage is that no training phase is needed in order to learn object features. The use-case of the proposed method is the detection of soil sample containers in an outdoor environment which have to be collected by a mobile robot. The approach is verified using real world experiments.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S-f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub-reach is obtained from discharge-area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub-reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro-fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub-reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM Outputs are comparable to those of the HEC-RAS model.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

Structure-Based Design of DevR Inhibitor Active against Nonreplicating Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Antitubercular treatment is directed against actively replicating organisms. There is an urgent need to develop drugs targeting persistent subpopulations of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The DevR response regulator is believed to play a key role in bacterial dormancy adaptation during hypoxia. We developed a homology-based model of DevR and used it for the rational design of inhibitors. A phenylcoumarin derivative (compound 10) identified by in silico pharmacophore-based screening of 2.5 million compounds employing protocols with some novel features including a water-based pharmacophore query, was characterized further. Compound 10 inhibited DevR binding to target DNA, down-regulated dormancy genes transcription, and drastically reduced survival of hypoxic but not nutrient-starved dormant bacteria or actively growing organ ` isms. Our findings suggest that compound 10 ``locks'' DevR in an inactive conformation that is unable to bind cognate DNA and induce the dormancy regulon. These results provide proof-of-concept for DevR as a novel target to develop molecules with sterilizing activity against tubercle bacilli.

The enhanced Russell-based directional distance measure with undesirable outputs: Numerical example considering CO2 emissions

Following the spirit of the enhanced Russell graph measure, this paper proposes an enhanced Russell-based directional distance measure (ERBDDM) model for dealing with desirable and undesirable outputs in data envelopment analysis (DEA) and allowing some inputs and outputs to be zero. The proposed method is analogous to the output oriented slacks-based measure (OSBM) and directional output distance function approach because it allows the expansion of desirable outputs and the contraction of undesirable outputs. The ERBDDM is superior to the OSBM model and traditional approach since it is not only able to identify all the inefficiency slacks just as the latter, but also avoids the misperception and misspecification of the former, which fails to identify null-jointness production of goods and bads. The paper also imposes a strong complementary slackness condition on the ERBDDM model to deal with the occurrence of multiple projections. Furthermore, we use the Penn Table data to help us explore our new approach in the context of environmental policy evaluations and guidance for performance improvements in 111 countries.

Simulation design in information systems research: example of studying it value cocreation with NK model

As an emerging research method that has showed promising potential in several research disciplines, simulation received relatively few attention in information systems research. This paper illustrates a framework for employing simulation to study IT value cocreation. Although previous studies identified factors driving IT value cocreation, its underlying process remains unclear. Simulation can address this limitation through exploring such underlying process with computational experiments. The simulation framework in this paper is based on an extended NK model. Agent-based modeling is employed as the theoretical basis for the NK model extensions.

Unified large and small signal non-quasi-static model for long channel symmetric DG MOSFET

We propose a unified model for large signal and small signal non-quasi-static analysis of long channel symmetric double gate MOSFET. The model is physics based and relies only on the very basic approximation needed for a charge-based model. It is based on the EKV formalism Enz C, Vittoz EA. Charge based MOS transistor modeling. Wiley; 2006] and is valid in all regions of operation and thus suitable for RF circuit design. Proposed model is verified with professional numerical device simulator and excellent agreement is found. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerated gradient based diffuse optical tomographic image reconstruction

Purpose: Fast reconstruction of interior optical parameter distribution using a new approach called Broyden-based model iterative image reconstruction (BMOBIIR) and adjoint Broyden-based MOBIIR (ABMOBIIR) of a tissue and a tissue mimicking phantom from boundary measurement data in diffuse optical tomography (DOT). Methods: DOT is a nonlinear and ill-posed inverse problem. Newton-based MOBIIR algorithm, which is generally used, requires repeated evaluation of the Jacobian which consumes bulk of the computation time for reconstruction. In this study, we propose a Broyden approach-based accelerated scheme for Jacobian computation and it is combined with conjugate gradient scheme (CGS) for fast reconstruction. The method makes explicit use of secant and adjoint information that can be obtained from forward solution of the diffusion equation. This approach reduces the computational time many fold by approximating the system Jacobian successively through low-rank updates. Results: Simulation studies have been carried out with single as well as multiple inhomogeneities. Algorithms are validated using an experimental study carried out on a pork tissue with fat acting as an inhomogeneity. The results obtained through the proposed BMOBIIR and ABMOBIIR approaches are compared with those of Newton-based MOBIIR algorithm. The mean squared error and execution time are used as metrics for comparing the results of reconstruction. Conclusions: We have shown through experimental and simulation studies that Broyden-based MOBIIR and adjoint Broyden-based methods are capable of reconstructing single as well as multiple inhomogeneities in tissue and a tissue-mimicking phantom. Broyden MOBIIR and adjoint Broyden MOBIIR methods are computationally simple and they result in much faster implementations because they avoid direct evaluation of Jacobian. The image reconstructions have been carried out with different initial values using Newton, Broyden, and adjoint Broyden approaches. These algorithms work well when the initial guess is close to the true solution. However, when initial guess is far away from true solution, Newton-based MOBIIR gives better reconstructed images. The proposed methods are found to be stable with noisy measurement data. (C) 2011 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. DOI: 10.1118/1.3531572]

Analysis of shear bands in slow granular flows using a frictional Cosserat model

The slow flow of granular materials is often marked by the existence of narrow shear layers, adjacent to large regions that suffer little or no deformation. This behaviour, in the regime where shear stress is generated primarily by the frictional interactions between grains, has so far eluded theoretical description. In this paper, we present a rigid-plastic frictional Cosserat model that captures thin shear layers by incorporating a microscopic length scale. We treat the granular medium as a Cosserat continuum, which allows the existence of localised couple stresses and, therefore, the possibility of an asymmetric stress tensor. In addition, the local rotation is an independent field variable and is not necessarily equal to the vorticity. The angular momentum balance, which is implicitly satisfied for a classical continuum, must now be solved in conjunction with the linear momentum balances. We extend the critical state model, used in soil plasticity, for a Cosserat continuum and obtain predictions for flow in plane and cylindrical Couette devices. The velocity profile predicted by our model is in qualitative agreement with available experimental data. In addition, our model can predict scaling laws for the shear layer thickness as a function of the Couette gap, which must be verified in future experiments. Most significantly, our model can determine the velocity field in viscometric flows, which classical plasticity-based model cannot.

Performance Modeling based on Multidimensional Surface Learning for Performance Predictions of Parallel Applications in Non-Dedicated Environments

Modeling the performance behavior of parallel applications to predict the execution times of the applications for larger problem sizes and number of processors has been an active area of research for several years. The existing curve fitting strategies for performance modeling utilize data from experiments that are conducted under uniform loading conditions. Hence the accuracy of these models degrade when the load conditions on the machines and network change. In this paper, we analyze a curve fitting model that attempts to predict execution times for any load conditions that may exist on the systems during application execution. Based on the experiments conducted with the model for a parallel eigenvalue problem, we propose a multi-dimensional curve-fitting model based on rational polynomials for performance predictions of parallel applications in non-dedicated environments. We used the rational polynomial based model to predict execution times for 2 other parallel applications on systems with large load dynamics. In all the cases, the model gave good predictions of execution times with average percentage prediction errors of less than 20%