Application of a coupled ground-surface water flow model to simulate periodic groundwater flow influenced by a sloping boundary, capillarity and vertical flows

Theoretical developments as well as field and laboratory data have shown the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations to increase with the fluctuation frequency. The numerical solution of a full, partially saturated flow equation can be computationally expensive. In this paper, the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations is simplified through its parameterisation into the storage coefficient of a fully-saturated groundwater flow model using the complex effective porosity concept [Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. Water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling. Advances in Water Resources 23 (1), 503-515; Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. ERRATA: water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling (Advances in Water Resources 23 (2000) 503-515). Advances in Water Resources 23, 907-908]. The model is applied to sand flume observations of periodic water table fluctuations induced by simple harmonic forcing across a sloping boundary, analogous to many beach groundwater systems. While not providing information on the moisture distribution within the aquifer, this approach can reasonably predict the water table fluctuations in response to periodic forcing across a sloping boundary. Furthermore, he coupled ground-surface water model accurately predicts the extent of the seepage face formed at the sloping boundary. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiative forcing of natural forest disturbances

Forest disturbances are major sources of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and therefore impact global climate. Biogeophysical attributes, such as surface albedo (reflectivity), further control the climate-regulating properties of forests. Using both tower-based and remotely sensed data sets, we show that natural disturbances from wildfire, beetle outbreaks, and hurricane wind throw can significantly alter surface albedo, and the associated radiative forcing either offsets or enhances the CO2 forcing caused by reducing ecosystem carbon sequestration over multiple years. In the examined cases, the radiative forcing from albedo change is on the same order of magnitude as the CO2 forcing. The net radiative forcing resulting from these two factors leads to a local heating effect in a hurricane-damaged mangrove forest in the subtropics, and a cooling effect following wildfire and mountain pine beetle attack in boreal forests with winter snow. Although natural forest disturbances currently represent less than half of gross forest cover loss, that area will probably increase in the future under climate change, making it imperative to represent these processes accurately in global climate models.

Water temperature reconstructions based on paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records, and paired surface and subsurface Mg/Ca records

This dataset contains the collection of available published paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records spanning multi-millennial to multi-million year time scales, as well as a collection of Mg/Ca-derived temperatures measured in parallel on surface and subsurface dwelling foraminifera, both used in the analyses of Ho and Laepple, Nature Geoscience 2016. As the signal-to-noise ratios of proxy-derived Holocene temperatures are relatively low, we selected records that contain at least the last deglaciation (oldest sample >18kyr BP).

Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Alkenone accumulation rates, stable carbon isotope record, and sea surface temperature reconstruction for IODP Site 306-U1313

Here we present orbitally-resolved records of terrestrial higher plant leaf wax input to the North Atlantic over the last 3.5 Ma, based on the accumulation of long-chain n-alkanes and n-alkanl-1-ols at IODP Site U1313. These lipids are a major component of dust, even in remote ocean areas, and have a predominantly aeolian origin in distal marine sediments. Our results demonstrate that around 2.7 million years ago (Ma), coinciding with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG), the aeolian input of terrestrial material to the North Atlantic increased drastically. Since then, during every glacial the aeolian input of higher plant material was up to 30 times higher than during interglacials. The close correspondence between aeolian input to the North Atlantic and other dust records indicates a globally uniform response of dust sources to Quaternary climate variability, although the amplitude of variation differs among areas. We argue that the increased aeolian input at Site U1313 during glacials is predominantly related to the episodic appearance of continental ice sheets in North America and the associated strengthening of glaciogenic dust sources. Evolutional spectral analyses of the n-alkane records were therefore used to determine the dominant astronomical forcing in North American ice sheet advances. These results demonstrate that during the early Pleistocene North American ice sheet dynamics responded predominantly to variations in obliquity (41 ka), which argues against previous suggestions of precession-related variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the early Pleistocene.

(Fig. 1D, 3E) Sea surface temperature and alkenone C37:4 for sediment core MD01-2444 during the penultimate glaciation

Past glacials can be thought of as natural experiments in which variations in boundary conditions influenced the character of climate change. However, beyond the last glacial, an integrated view of orbital- and millennial-scale changes and their relation to the record of glaciation has been lacking. Here, we present a detailed record of variations in the land-ocean system from the Portuguese margin during the penultimate glacial and place it within the framework of ice-volume changes, with particular reference to European ice-sheet dynamics. The interaction of orbital- and millennial-scale variability divides the glacial into an early part with warmer and wetter overall conditions and prominent climate oscillations, a transitional mid-part, and a late part with more subdued changes as the system entered a maximum glacial state. The most extreme event occurred in the mid-part and was associated with melting of the extensive European ice sheet and maximum discharge from the Fleuve Manche river. This led to disruption of the meridional overturning circulation, but not a major activation of the bipolar seesaw. In addition to stadial duration, magnitude of freshwater forcing, and background climate, the evidence also points to the influence of the location of freshwater discharges on the extent of interhemispheric heat transport.

Stable isotopes, radionuclides, and calculated sea surface temperature of two sediment cores in the Sicily Channel

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910±12, 1812±18, 1725±25 and 1580±30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales.

Winter sea surface temperature reconstruction from planktic foraminiferal transfer functions in the northeastern Arabian Sea over the last two millennia

The Indian monsoon system is an important climate feature of the northern Indian Ocean. Small variations of the wind and precipitation patterns have fundamental influence on the societal, agricultural, and economic development of India and its neighboring countries. To understand current trends, sensitivity to forcing, or natural variation, records beyond the instrumental period are needed. However, high-resolution archives of past winter monsoon variability are scarce. One potential archive of such records are marine sediments deposited on the continental slope in the NE Arabian Sea, an area where present-day conditions are dominated by the winter monsoon. In this region, winter monsoon conditions lead to distinctive changes in surface water properties, affecting marine plankton communities that are deposited in the sediment. Using planktic foraminifera as a sensitive and well-preserved plankton group, we first characterize the response of their species distribution on environmental gradients from a dataset of surface sediment samples in the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. Transfer functions for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions were applied to a decadal-scale record of assemblage counts from the Pakistan Margin spanning the last 2000?years. The reconstructed temperature record reveals an intensification of winter monsoon intensity near the year 100 CE. Prior to this transition, winter temperatures were >1.5°C warmer than today. Conditions similar to the present seem to have established after 450 CE, interrupted by a singular event near 950 CE with warmer temperatures and accordingly weak winter monsoon. Frequency analysis revealed significant 75-, 40-, and 37-year cycles, which are known from decadal- to centennial-scale resolution records of Indian summer monsoon variability and interpreted as solar irradiance forcing. Our first independent record of Indian winter monsoon activity confirms that winter and summer monsoons were modulated on the same frequency bands and thus indicates that both monsoon systems are likely controlled by the same driving force.

Dissolved Iron, Aluminium, and Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorus in the (Sub-)Tropical Atlantic Surface Ocean

Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (~0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north-south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial-temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.

Stable isotope record, calcium carbonate conentrations, and sea surface temperture reconstructions of sediment cores from the North Atlantic

We analyze five high-resolution time series spanning the last 1.65 m.y.: benthic foraminiferal delta18O and delta13O, percent CaCO3, and estimated sea surface temperature (SST) at North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project site 607 and percent CaCO3 at site 609. Each record is a multicore composite verified for continuity by splicing among multiple holes. These climatic indices portray changes in northern hemisphere ice sheet size and in North Atlantic surface and deep circulation. By tuning obliquity and precession components in the delta18O record to orbital variations, we have devised a time scale (TP607) for the entire Pleistocene that agrees in age with all K/Ar-dated magnetic reversals to within 1.5%. The Brunhes time scale is taken from Imbrie et al. [1984], except for differences near the stage 17/16 transition (0.70 to 0.64 Ma). All indicators show a similar evolution from the Matuyama to the Brunhes chrons: orbital eccentricity and precession responses increased in amplitude; those at orbital obliquity decreased. The change in dominance from obliquity to eccentricity occurred over several hundred thousand years, with fastest changes around 0.7 to 0.6 Ma. The coherent, in-phase responses of delta18O, delta13O, CaCO3 and SST at these rhythms indicate that northern hemisphere ice volume changes have controlled most of the North Atlantic surface-ocean and deep-ocean responses for the last 1.6 m.y. The delta13O, percent CaCO3, and SST records at site 607 also show prominent changes at low frequencies, including a prominent long-wavelength oscillation toward glacial conditions that is centered between 0.9 and 0.6 Ma. These changes appear to be associated neither with orbital forcing nor with changes in ice volume.

Sea-surface reconstructions of the western Pacific Ocean during the last 5.3 million years

The late Neogene was a time of cryosphere development in the northern hemisphere. The present study was carried out to estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) change during this period based on the quantitative planktonic foraminiferal data of 8 DSDP sites in the western Pacific. Target factor analysis has been applied to the conventional transfer function approach to overcome the no-analog conditions caused by evolutionary faunal changes. By applying this technique through a combination of time-slice and time-series studies, the SST history of the last 5.3 Ma has been reconstructed for the low latitude western Pacific. Although the present data set is close to the statistical limits of factor analysis, the clear presence of sensible variations in individual SST time-series suggests the feasibility and reliability of this method in paleoceanographic studies. The estimated SST curves display the general trend of the temperature fluctuations and reveal three major cool periods in the late Neogene, i.e. the early Pliocene (4.7 3.5 Ma), the late Pliocene (3.1-2.7 Ma), and the latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene (2.2-1.0 Ma). Cool events are reflected in the increase of seasonality and meridional SST gradient in the subtropical area. The latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene cooling is most important in the late Neogene climatic evolution. It differs from the previous cool events in its irreversible, steplike change in SST, which established the glacial climate characteristic of the late Pleistocene. The winter and summer SST decreased by 3.3-5.4°C and 1.0 2.1C in the subtropics, by 0.9°C and 0.6C in the equatorial region, and showed little or no cooling in the tropics. Moreover, this cooling event occurred as a gradual SST decrease during 2.2 1.0 Ma at the warmer subtropical sites, while that at cooler subtropical site was an abrupt SST drop at 2.2 Ma. In contrast, equatorial and tropical western Pacific experienced only minor SST change in the entire late Neogene. In general, subtropics was much more sensitive to climatic forcing than tropics and the cooling events were most extensive in the cooler subtropics. The early Pliocene cool periods can be correlated to the Antarctic ice volume fluctuation, and the latest Pliocene early Pleistocene cooling reflects the climatic evolution during the cryosphere development of the northern hemisphere.

(Table S2) The reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector and sea surface salinity for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the potential downstream influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts through the oceanic pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), atmospheric teleconnections between the IO and Pacific, and assimilation of IO observations. Also the impact of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indo-Pacific region is assessed to try to address known problems with operational coupled model precipitation forecasts. The ITF normally drains warm fresh water from the Pacific reducing the mixed layer depths (MLD). A shallower MLD amplifies large-scale oceanic Kelvin/Rossby waves thus giving ~10% larger response and more realistic ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability compared to observed when the ITF is open. In order to isolate the impact of the IO sector atmospheric teleconnections to ENSO, experiments are contrasted that selectively couple/decouple the interannual forcing in the IO. The interannual variability of IO SST forcing is responsible for 3 month lagged widespread downwelling in the Pacific, assisted by off-equatorial curl, leading to warmer NINO3 SST anomaly and improved ENSO validation (significant from 3-9 months). Isolating the impact of observations in the IO sector using regional assimilation identifies large-scale warming in the IO that acts to intensify the easterlies of the Walker circulation and increases pervasive upwelling across the Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific, and improving ENSO validation (r ~ 0.05, RMS~0.08C). Lastly, the positive impact of more accurate fresh water forcing is demonstrated to address inadequate precipitation forecasts in operational coupled models. Aquarius SSS assimilation improves the mixed layer density and enhances mixing, setting off upwelling that eventually cools the eastern Pacific after 6 months, counteracting the pervasive warming of most coupled models and significantly improving ENSO validation from 5-11 months. In summary, the ITF oceanic pathway, the atmospheric teleconnection, the impact of observations in the IO, and improved Indo-Pacific SSS are all responsible for ENSO forecast improvements, and so each aspect of this study contributes to a better overall understanding of ENSO. Therefore, the upstream influence of the IO should be thought of as integral to the functioning of ENSO phenomenon.