Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

The enhanced immune protection of Zhikong scallop Chlamys farreri on the secondary encounter with Listonella anguillarum

It is well known that invertebrates are devoid of adaptive immune components and rely primarily on innate immunity to defend against pathogens, but recent studies have demonstrated the existence of enhanced secondary immune protection in some invertebrates. in the present study, the cumulative mortality of scallops received two successive Listonella anguillarum stimulations was recorded, and variations of immune parameters including phagocytosis (phagocytic rate and phagocytic index), phenoloxidase-like enzyme, acid phosphatase and superoxide dismutase activities were also examined. The scallops received a previous short-term L anguillarum stimulation were protected against a long-term stimulation of L. anguillarum. Significantly higher level of phagocytic activities and acid phosphatase activity were observed in the scallops received twice stimulations compared with those only received the secondary stimulation. These results indicated that a short-term immersion with L. anguillarum modulated the scallops' immune system and endowed the scallops with enhanced resistance to the secondary bacterial stimulation: phagocytosis and acid phosphatase were suspected to be involved in the protection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 1 Report: Rationale and proposed ecological groupings for Level 5 biotopes against which sensitivity assessments would be best undertaken.

The purpose of this study is to produce a series of Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs) that represent sublittoral rock habitats in the UK. CEMs are diagrammatic representations of the influences and processes that occur within an ecosystem. They can be used to identify critical aspects of an ecosystem that may be studied further, or serve as the basis for the selection of indicators for environmental monitoring purposes. The models produced by this project are control diagrams, representing the unimpacted state of the environment free from anthropogenic pressures. It is intended that the models produced by this project will be used to guide indicator selection for the monitoring of this habitat in UK waters. CEMs may eventually be produced for a range of habitat types defined under the UK Marine Biodiversity Monitoring R&D Programme (UKMBMP), which, along with stressor models, are designed to show the interactions within impacted habitats, would form the basis of a robust method for indicator selection. This project builds on the work to develop CEMs for shallow sublittoral coarse sediment habitats (Alexander et al 2014). The project scope included those habitats defined as ‘sublittoral rock’. This definition includes those habitats that fall into the EUNIS Level 3 classifications A3.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy infralittoral rock, A3.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy infralittoral rock, A3.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy infralittoral rock, A4.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy circalittoral rock, A4.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy circalittoral rock, and A4.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy circalittoral rock as well as the constituent Level 4 and 5 biotopes that are relevant to UK waters. A species list of characterising fauna to be included within the scope of the models was identified using an iterative process to refine the full list of species found within the relevant Level 5 biotopes. A literature review was conducted using a pragmatic and iterative approach to gather evidence regarding species traits and information that would be used to inform the models and characterise the interactions that occur within the sublittoral rock habitat. All information gathered during the literature review was entered into a data logging pro-forma spreadsheet that accompanies this report. Wherever possible, attempts were made to collect information from UK-specific peer-reviewed studies, although other sources were used where necessary. All data gathered was subject to a detailed confidence assessment. Expert judgement by the project team was utilised to provide information for aspects of the models for which references could not be sourced within the project timeframe. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to assess ecologically similar groups (based on ecological and life history traits) of fauna from the identified species to form the basis of the models. A model hierarchy was developed based on these ecological groups. One general control model was produced that indicated the high-level drivers, inputs, biological assemblages, ecosystem processes and outputs that occur in sublittoral rock habitats. In addition to this, seven detailed sub-models were produced, which each focussed on a particular ecological group of fauna within the habitat: ‘macroalgae’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached active filter feeders’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached passive filter feeders’, ‘bivalves, brachiopods and other encrusting filter feeders’, ‘tube building fauna’, ‘scavengers and predatory fauna’, and ‘non-predatory mobile fauna’. Each sub-model is accompanied by an associated confidence model that presents confidence in the links between each model component. The models are split into seven levels and take spatial and temporal scale into account through their design, as well as magnitude and direction of influence. The seven levels include regional to global drivers, water column processes, local inputs/processes at the seabed, habitat and biological assemblage, output processes, local ecosystem functions, and regional to global ecosystem functions. The models indicate that whilst the high level drivers that affect each ecological group are largely similar, the output processes performed by the biota and the resulting ecosystem functions vary both in number and importance between groups. Confidence within the models as a whole is generally high, reflecting the level of information gathered during the literature review. Physical drivers which influence the ecosystem were found to be of high importance for the sublittoral rock habitat, with factors such as wave exposure, water depth and water currents noted to be crucial in defining the biological assemblages. Other important factors such as recruitment/propagule supply, and those which affect primary production, such as suspended sediments, light attenuation and water chemistry and temperature, were also noted to be key and act to influence the food sources consumed by the biological assemblages of the habitat, and the biological assemblages themselves. Output processes performed by the biological assemblages are variable between ecological groups depending on the specific flora and fauna present and the role they perform within the ecosystem. Of particular importance are the outputs performed by the macroalgae group, which are diverse in nature and exert influence over other ecological groups in the habitat. Important output processes from the habitat as a whole include primary and secondary production, bioengineering, biodeposition (in mixed sediment habitats) and the supply of propagules; these in turn influence ecosystem functions at the local scale such as nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, supply of food resources, sediment stability (in mixed sediment habitats), habitat provision and population and algae control. The export of biodiversity and organic matter, biodiversity enhancement and biotope stability are the resulting ecosystem functions that occur at the regional to global scale. Features within the models that are most useful for monitoring habitat status and change due to natural variation have been identified, as have those that may be useful for monitoring to identify anthropogenic causes of change within the ecosystem. Biological, physical and chemical features of the ecosystem have been identified as potential indicators to monitor natural variation, whereas biological factors and those physical /chemical factors most likely to affect primary production have predominantly been identified as most likely to indicate change due to anthropogenic pressures.

The SPHERE Study: Secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: protocol of a randomised controlled trial of tailored practice and patient care plans with parallel qualitative, economic and policy analyses. [ISRCTN24081411]

Background: The aim of the SPHERE study is to design, implement and evaluate tailored practice and personal care plans to improve the process of care and objective clinical outcomes for patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in general practice across two different health systems on the island of Ireland.CHD is a common cause of death and a significant cause of morbidity in Ireland. Secondary prevention has been recommended as a key strategy for reducing levels of CHD mortality and general practice has been highlighted as an ideal setting for secondary prevention initiatives. Current indications suggest that there is considerable room for improvement in the provision of secondary prevention for patients with established heart disease on the island of Ireland. The review literature recommends structured programmes with continued support and follow-up of patients; the provision of training, tailored to practice needs of access to evidence of effectiveness of secondary prevention; structured recall programmes that also take account of individual practice needs; and patient-centred consultations accompanied by attention to disease management guidelines.

Methods: SPHERE is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with practice-level randomisation to intervention and control groups, recruiting 960 patients from 48 practices in three study centres (Belfast, Dublin and Galway). Primary outcomes are blood pressure, total cholesterol, physical and mental health status (SF-12) and hospital re-admissions. The intervention takes place over two years and data is collected at baseline, one-year and two-year follow-up. Data is obtained from medical charts, consultations with practitioners, and patient postal questionnaires. The SPHERE intervention involves the implementation of a structured systematic programme of care for patients with CHD attending general practice. It is a multi-faceted intervention that has been developed to respond to barriers and solutions to optimal secondary prevention identified in preliminary qualitative research with practitioners and patients. General practitioners and practice nurses attend training sessions in facilitating behaviour change and medication prescribing guidelines for secondary prevention of CHD. Patients are invited to attend regular four-monthly consultations over two years, during which targets and goals for secondary prevention are set and reviewed. The analysis will be strengthened by economic, policy and qualitative components.

Use and access to ICT in students of public secondary schools in Chihuahua City, Mexico: inclusion in teaching and digital literacy

This paper addresses the issue of the digital divide in students of public secondary schools at Chihuahua City, Mexico. It seeks to identify potential inequality of opportunities with regards to subjects’ access to information, knowledge and education through the ICT (internet, mobile telephony, broadband and television). The study takes three schools as investigative stage, using the survey as a data collection instrument, identifying patterns of behavior regarding: general knowledge of them, access to computer equipment and internet, and characterization of their use. Other aspects of analysis are the identification of the educational level of parents and access to technology resources available for academic and non-academic purposes in various application areas (home, school and social environment). The proposal concludes, that it is through the recollection of alternatives suggested by the teachers themselves to incorporate ICT for teaching purposes in a systematic and planned fashion, whose greatest reflection manifests in better digital literacy indicators.

The elimination of the tutoring group-hour in Secondary Education. An exploratory study about teachers thoughts.

The Tutoring Group-hour in Compulsory Secondary Education and Post-Compulsory Schooling has been eliminated in a number of autonomous communities. Given the importance of the tutorial act as one of the fundamental pillars in students overall development, its disappearance has created considerable disturbance in the educational institutions, sparking a debate regarding the role of the tutor and the impact and effectiveness of their actions. In this survey, teachers from two different schools in the Community of Madrid maintain that they are properly trained to perform the various duties required for a tutor, show strong disagreement to the elimination of the Tutoring Group-hour in secondary schools, advocate incorporating it at a primary school level, and consider one of the main consequences of its disappearance to be less personalized attention for students. In short, an educational response that is less effective.

The cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention for the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease

Objectives: The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. Methods: Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. Results: The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of 512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, 0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay €45,000 per additional QALY. Conclusions: Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

Endocrine disrupting effects of zearalenone, alpha- and beta-zearalenol at the level of nuclear receptor binding and steroidogenesis.

The mycotoxin zearalenone (ZEN) is a secondary metabolite of fungi which is produced by certain species of the genus Fusarium and can occur in cereals and other plant products. Reporter gene assays incorporating natural steroid receptors and the H295R steroidogenesis assay have been implemented to assess the endocrine disrupting activity of ZEN and its metabolites -zearalenol (-ZOL) and -zearalenol (-ZOL). -ZOL exhibited the strongest estrogenic potency (EC50 0.022 ± 0.001 nM), slightly less potent than 17- estradiol (EC50 0.015 ± 0.002 nM). ZEN was ~70 times less potent than -ZOL and twice as potent as -ZOL. Binding of progesterone to the progestagen receptor was shown to be synergistically increased in the presence of ZEN, -ZOL or -ZOL. ZEN, -ZOL or -ZOL increased production of progesterone, estradiol, testosterone and cortisol hormones in the H295R steroidogenesis assay, with peak productions at 10 M. At 100 M, cell viability decreased and levels of hormones were significantly reduced except for progesterone. -ZOL increased estradiol concentrations more than -ZOL or ZEN, with a maximum effect at 10 M, with -ZOL (562 ± 59 pg/ml) > -ZOL (494 ± 60 pg/ml) > ZEN (375 ± 43 pg/ml). The results indicate that ZEN and its metabolites can act as potential endocrine disruptors at the level of nuclear receptor signalling and by altering hormone production.

Predator diversity enhances secondary production and decreases the likelihood of trophic cascades

We manipulated the diversity of top predators in a three trophic level marine food web. The food web included four top benthic marine fish predators (black goby, rock goby, sea scorpion and shore rockling), an intermediate trophic level of small fish, and a lower trophic level of benthic invertebrates. We kept predator density constant and monitored the response of the lower trophic levels. As top predator diversity increased, secondary production increased. We also observed that in the presence of the manipulated fish predators, the density of small gobiid fish (intermediate consumers) was suppressed, releasing certain groups of benthic invertebrates (caprellid amphipods, copepods, nematodes and spirorbid worms) from heavy intermediate predation pressure. We attribute the mechanism responsible for this trophic cascade to a trait-mediated indirect interaction, with the small gobiid fish changing their use of space in response to altered predator diversity. In the absence of top fish predators, a full-blown trophic cascade occurs. Therefore the diversity of predators reduces the likelihood of trophic cascades occurring and hence provides insurance against the loss of an important ecosystem function (i.e. secondary production).

Helping the most vulnerable out of the poverty trap and reducing inequality: Policies, strategies, and services for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities: Benchmarking Autism Services Efficacy: BASE Project (Volume 3) Secondary Data analysis

1) Executive Summary
Legislation (Autism Act NI, 2011), a cross-departmental strategy (Autism Strategy 2013-2020) and a first action plan (2013-2016) have been developed in Northern Ireland in order to support individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) without a prior thorough baseline assessment of need. At the same time, there are large existing data sets about the population in NI that had never been subjected to a secondary data analysis with regards to data on ASD. This report covers the first comprehensive secondary data analysis and thereby aims to inform future policy and practice.
Following a search of all existing, large-scale, regional or national data sets that were relevant to the lives of individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Northern Ireland, extensive secondary data analyses were carried out. The focus of these secondary data analyses was to distill any ASD related data from larger generic data sets. The findings are reported for each data set and follow a lifespan perspective, i.e., data related to children is reported first before data related to adults.
Key findings:
Autism Prevalence:
Of children born in 2000 in the UK,
• 0.9% (1:109) were reported to have ASD, when they were 5-year old in 2005;
• 1.8% (1:55) were reported to have ASD, when they were 7-years old in 2007;
• 3.5% (1:29) were reported to have ASD, when they were 11-year old in 2011.
In mainstream schools in Northern Ireland
• 1.2% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2006/07;
• 1.8% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2012/13.

Economic Deprivation:
• Families of children with autism (CWA) were 9%-18% worse off per week than families of children not on the autism spectrum (COA).
• Between 2006-2013 deprivation of CWA compared to COA nearly doubled as measured by eligibility for free school meals (from near 20 % to 37%)
• In 2006, CWA and COA experienced similar levels of deprivation (approx. 20%), by 2013, a considerable deprivation gap had developed, with CWA experienced 6% more deprivation than COA.
• Nearly 1/3 of primary school CWA lived in the most deprived areas in Northern Ireland.
• Nearly ½ of children with Asperger’s Syndrome who attended special school lived in the most deprived areas.

Unemployment:
• Mothers of CWA were 6% less likely to be employed than mothers of COA.
• Mothers of CWA earned 35%-56% less than mothers of COA.
• CWA were 9% less likely to live in two income families than COA.

Health:
• Pre-diagnosis, CWA were more likely than COA to have physical health problems, including walking on level ground, speech and language, hearing, eyesight, and asthma.
• Aged 3 years of age CWA experienced poorer emotional and social health than COA, this difference increased significantly by the time they were 7 years of age.
• Mothers of young CWA had lower levels of life satisfaction and poorer mental health than mothers of young COA.
Education:
• In mainstream education, children with ASD aged 11-16 years reported less satisfaction with their social relationships than COA.
• Younger children with ASD (aged 5 and 7 years) were less likely to enjoy school, were bullied more, and were more reluctant to attend school than COA.
• CWA attended school 2-3 weeks less than COA .
• Children with Asperger’s Syndrome in special schools missed the equivalent of 8-13 school days more than children with Asperger’s Syndrome in mainstream schools.
• Children with ASD attending mainstream schooling were less likely to gain 5+ GCSEs A*-C or subsequently attend university.



Further and Higher Education:
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Further Education (FE), from 0% to 0.7%.
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Higher Education (HE), from 0.28% to 0.45%.
• Students with ASD chose to study different subjects than students without ASD, although other factors, e.g., gender, age etc. may have played a part in subject selection.
• Students with ASD from NI were more likely than students without ASD to choose Northern Irish HE Institutions rather than study outside NI.

Participation in adult life and employment:
• A small number of adults with ASD (n=99) have benefitted from DES employment provision over the past 12 years.
• It is unknown how many adults with ASD have received employment support elsewhere (e.g. Steps to Work).
•
Awareness and Attitudes in the General Population:
• In both the 2003 and 2012 NI Life and Times Survey (NILTS), NI public reported positive attitudes towards the inclusion of children with ASD in mainstream education (see also BASE Project Vol. 2).

Gap Analysis Recommendations:
This was the first comprehensive secondary analysis with regards to ASD of existing large-scale data sets in Northern Ireland. Data gaps were identified and further replications would benefit from the following data inclusion:
• ASD should be recorded routinely in the following datasets:
o Census;
o Northern Ireland Survey of Activity Limitation (NISALD);
o Training for Success/Steps to work; Steps to Success;
o Travel survey;
o Hate crime; and
o Labour Force Survey.
• Data should be collected on the destinations/qualifications of special school leavers.
• NILT Survey autism module should be repeated in 5 years time (2017) (see full report of 1st NILT Survey autism module 2012 in BASE Project Report Volume 2).
• General public attitudes and awareness should be assessed for children and young people, using the Young Life and Times Survey (YLT) and the Kids Life and Times Survey (KLT); (this work is underway, Dillenburger, McKerr, Schubolz, & Lloyd, 2014-2015).
 

Are Computer Scientists Geeks? Gender Differences In Attitudes And Experiences Related To Computing Among Secondary Education Students In Northern Ireland.

The worldwide scarcity of women studying or employed in ICT, or in computing related disciplines, continues to be a topic of concern for industry, the education sector and governments. Within Europe while females make up 46% of the workforce only 17% of IT staff are female. A similar gender divide trend is repeated worldwide, with top technology employers in Silicon Valley, including Facebook, Google, Twitter and Apple reporting that only 30% of the workforce is female (Larson 2014). Previous research into this gender divide suggests that young women in Secondary Education display a more negative attitude towards computing than their male counterparts. It would appear that the negative female perception of computing has led to representatively low numbers of women studying ICT at a tertiary level and consequently an under representation of females within the ICT industry. The aim of this study is to 1) establish a baseline understanding of the attitudes and perceptions of Secondary Education pupils in regard to computing and 2) statistically establish if young females in Secondary Education really do have a more negative attitude towards computing.

Trophic Level Asynchrony in Rates of Phenological Change For Marine, Freshwater and Terrestrial Environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardised approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardised assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large-scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services

Mentorships and co-op placements as a means of heightening the need for a secondary school diploma to the education of at-risk students.--

Both educators and politicians appear to be quite concerned about a dropout rate in Ontario's public schools of some 30 percent. With the basic understanding that a high dropout rate is costly both in economic terms and in human terms, something quite obviously needs to be done to reduce the dropout rate in Ontario schools and, in doing so, ensuring Ontario and its graduates an active role in a growing global economy. This study is an exploratory pilot study in that it examined mentoring and the role that mentoring can play in assisting a student in staying in school and graduating from secondary school. Also incorporated in this is co-operative education and the role it can play, through mentoring, in making students aware of lifestyle level of employment, and of the skills necessary to obtain gainful, meaningful employment. In order to gain information on student attitudes, needs and expectations of a mentoring situation, a series of three questionnaires was used. Also, a questionnaire was distributed to the various co-operative education employers. The intent of this questionnaire was to probe the attitudes, needs and expectations of a mentoring situation from the perspective of an employer. The findings of this study indicated that co-operative education and mentoring are a very valuable and useful component in education. There exist certain factors in a co-operative education setting that serve to enhance and to augment the traditional or "theoretical" setting of the classroom. In addition, a mentoring situation tends to add a sense of relevance to education that students seem to require. Also, an opportunity is offered that allows a student to practice and further refine the skills that have been taught over the course of the student's academic life. Results from this study suggested that a mentoring situation, occurring through a co-operative education situation, adds relevance and a sense of "application" to the traditional or classroom schooling situation. The whole idea of mentoring bodes well for the future of education and of the student. Many advantages are identified in a mentoring situation. One of the advantages is that the schools are able to work quite closely with the community and business in order to stay current and informed on the needs and expected needs of the business community. Co-operative education has now gone beyond being an "experimental" mode of education. All students can benefit from being involved in the program. Certainly at-risk students are aided with staying in school. Those students who are said to be not at-risk can also benefit from being enrolled in the program by gaining hands-on work experience and some of the necessary skills to ensure a place in a growing world economy.