982 resultados para SURVIVAL MODELS
Resumo:
Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Purpose: To evaluate the survival rate, success rate, load to fracture, and finite element analysis (FEA) of maxillary central incisors and canines restored using ceramic veneers and varying preparation designs.Methods and Materials: Thirty human maxillary central incisors and 30 canines were allocated to the following four groups (n=15) based on the preparation design and type of tooth: Gr1 = central incisor with a conservative preparation; Gr2 = central incisor with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer; Gr3 = canine with a conservative preparation; Gr4 = canine with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer. Ceramic veneers (lithium disilicate) were fabricated and adhesively cemented (Variolink Veneer). The specimens were subjected to 4 x 106 mechanical cycles and evaluated at every 500,000 cycles to detect failures. Specimens that survived were subjected to a load to fracture test. Bidimensional models were modeled (Rhinoceros 4.0) and evaluated (MSC.Patrans 2005r2 and MSC.Marc 2005r2) on the basis of their maximum principal stress (MPS) values. Survival rate values were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier test (alpha = 0.05) and load to fracture values were analyzed using the Student t-test (alpha = 0.05).Results: All groups showed 100% survival rates. The Student t-test did not show any difference between the groups for load to fracture. FEA showed higher MPS values in the specimens restored using veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer.Conclusion: Preparation design did not affect the fracture load of canines and central incisors, but the veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer exhibited a tendency to generate higher MPS values.
Resumo:
The effect of inulin and/or okara flour on Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 and Bifidobacterium animalis Bb-12 viability in a fermented soy product (FSP) and on probiotic survival under in vitro simulated gastrointestinal conditions were investigated throughout 28 days of storage at 4 °C. Employing a 22 design, four FSP trials were produced from soymilk fermented with ABT-4 culture (La-5, Bb-12, and Streptococcus thermophilus): FSP (control); FSP-I (with inulin, 3 g/100 mL of soymilk); FSP-O (with okara, 5 g/100 mL); FSP-IO (with inulin + okara, ratio 3:5 g/100 mL). Probiotic viabilities ranged from 8 to 9 log cfu/g during the 28 days of storage, and inulin and/or okara flour did not affect the viability of La-5 and Bb-12. Bb-12 resistance to the artificial gastrointestinal juices was higher than for La-5, since the Bb-12 and La-5 populations decreased approximately 0.6 log cfu/g and 3.8 log cfu/g, respectively, throughout storage period. Even though the protective effect of inulin and/or okara flour on probiotic microorganisms was not significant, when compared to a fresh culture, the FSP matrix improved Bb-12 survival on day 1 of storage and may be considered a good vehicle for Bb-12 and could play an important role in probiotic protection against gastrointestinal juices. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
Resumo:
The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.
Resumo:
Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.
Resumo:
Introduction: Denosumab, a fully human anti-RANKL monoclonal antibody, reduces the incidence of skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. We present survival data for the subset of patients with lung cancer, participating in the phase 3 trial of denosumab versus zoledronic acid (ZA) in the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumors (except breast or prostate) or multiple myeloma. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or intravenous ZA 4 mg. An exploratory analysis, using Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models, was performed for overall survival among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and SCLC. Results: Denosumab was associated with improved median overall survival versus ZA in 811 patients with any lung cancer (8.9 versus 7.7 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.80) and in 702 patients with NSCLC (9.5 versus 8.0 months; HR 0.78) (p = 0.01, each comparison). Further analysis of NSCLC by histological type showed a median survival of 8.6 months for denosumab versus 6.4 months for ZA in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.68; p = 0.035). Incidence of overall adverse events was balanced between treatment groups; serious adverse events occurred in 66.0% of denosumab-treated patients and 72.9% of ZA-treated patients. Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis of the jaw was similar between groups (0.7% denosumab versus 0.8% ZA). Hypocalcemia rates were 8.6% with denosumab and 3.8% with ZA. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, denosumab was associated with improved overall survival compared with ZA, in patients with metastatic lung cancer.
Resumo:
Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.
Resumo:
Background. Lung transplantation has become a standard procedure for some end-stage lung diseases, but primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is an inherent problem that impacts early and late outcomes. The aim of this study was to define the incidence, risk factors, and impact of mechanical ventilation time on mortality rates among a retrospective cohort of lung transplantations performed in a single institution. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of 118 lung transplantations performed between January 2003 and July 2010. The most severe form of PGD (grade III) as defined at 48 and 72 hours was examined for risk factors by multivariable logistic regression models using donor, recipient, and transplant variables. Results. The overall incidence of PGD at 48 hours was 19.8%, and 15.4% at 72 hours. According multivariate analysis, risk factors associated with PGD were donor smoking history for 48 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.236-18.896; P = .022) and older donors for 72 hours (adjusted OR, 1.046; 95% CI, 0.997-1.098; P = .022). The operative mortality was 52.9% among patients with PGD versus 20.3% at 48 hours (P = .012). At 72 hours, the mortality rate was 58.3% versus 21.2% (P = .013). The 90-days mortality was also higher among patients with PGD. The mechanical ventilation time was longer in patients with PGD III at 48 hours namely, a mean time of 72 versus 24 hours (P = .001). When PGD was defined at 72 hours, the mean ventilation time was even longer, namely 151 versus 24 hours (P < .001). The mean overall survival for patients who developed PGD at 48 hours was 490.9 versus 1665.5 days for subjects without PGD (P = .001). Considering PGD only at 72 hours, the mean survival was 177.7 days for the PGD group and 1628.9 days for the other patients (P < .001). Conclusion. PGD showed an important impacts on operative and 90-day mortality rates, mechanical ventilation time, and overall survival among lung transplant patients. PGD at 72 hours was a better predictor of lung transplant outcomes than at 48 hours. The use of donors with a smoking history or of advanced age were risk factors for the development of PGD.
Resumo:
We evaluated the effect of acute and chronic GVHD on relapse and survival after allogeneic hematopoietic SCT (HSCT) for multiple myeloma using non-myeloablative conditioning (NMA) and reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC). The outcomes of 177 HLA-identical sibling HSCT recipients between 1997 and 2005, following NMA (n = 98) or RIC (n = 79) were analyzed. In 105 patients, autografting was followed by planned NMA/RIC allogeneic transplantation. The impact of GVHD was assessed as a time-dependent covariate using Cox models. The incidence of acute GVHD (aGVHD; grades I-IV) was 42% (95% confidence interval (CI), 35-49%) and of chronic GVHD (cGVHD) at 5 years was 59% (95% CI, 49-69%), with 70% developing extensive cGVHD. In multivariate analysis, aGVHD (>= grade I) was associated with an increased risk of TRM (relative risk (RR) = 2.42, P = 0.016), whereas limited cGVHD significantly decreased the risk of myeloma relapse (RR = 0.35, P = 0.035) and was associated with superior EFS (RR = 0.40, P = 0.027). aGVHD had a detrimental effect on survival, especially in those receiving autologous followed by allogeneic HSCT (RR = 3.52, P = 0.001). The reduction in relapse risk associated with cGVHD is consistent with a beneficial graft-vs-myeloma effect, but this did not translate into a survival advantage. Bone Marrow Transplantation (2012) 47, 831-837; doi:10.1038/bmt.2011.192; published online 26 September 2011
Resumo:
Objective: To compare two models of pulmonary hypertension (monocrotaline and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy) regarding hemodynamic severity, structure of pulmonary arteries, inflammatory markers (IL-1 and PDGF), and 45-day survival. Methods: We used 80 Sprague-Dawley rats in two study protocols: structural analysis; and survival analysis. The rats were divided into four groups: control; monocrotaline (M), pneumonectomy (P), and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy (M+P). In the structural analysis protocol, 40 rats (10/group) were catheterized for the determination of hemodynamic variables, followed by euthanasia for the removal of heart and lung tissue. The right ventricle (RV) was dissected from the interventricular septum (IS), and the ratio between RV weight and the weight of the left ventricle (LV) plus IS (RV/LV+IS) was taken as the index of RV hypertrophy. In lung tissues, we performed histological analyses, as well as using ELISA to determine IL-1 and PDGF levels. In the survival protocol, 40 animals (10/group) were followed for 45 days. Results: The M and M+P rats developed pulmonary hypertension, whereas the control and P rats did not. The RV/LV+IS ratio was significantly higher in M+P rats than in M rats, as well as being significantly higher in M and M+P rats than in control and P rats. There were no significant differences between the M and M+P rats regarding the area of the medial layer of the pulmonary arteries; IL-1 and PDGF levels; or survival. Conclusions: On the basis of our results, we cannot conclude that the monocrotaline+pneumonectomy model is superior to the monocrotaline model.
Resumo:
Advances in stem cell biology have challenged the notion that infarcted myocardium is irreparable. The pluripotent ability of stem cells to differentiate into specialized cell lines began to garner intense interest within cardiology when it was shown in animal models that intramyocardial injection of bone marrow stem cells (MSCs), or the mobilization of bone marrow stem cells with spontaneous homing to myocardium, could improve cardiac function and survival after induced myocardial infarction (MI) [1, 2]. Furthermore, the existence of stem cells in myocardium has been identified in animal heart [3, 4], and intense research is under way in an attempt to clarify their potential clinical application for patients with myocardial infarction. To date, in order to identify the best one, different kinds of stem cells have been studied; these have been derived from embryo or adult tissues (i.e. bone marrow, heart, peripheral blood etc.). Currently, three different biologic therapies for cardiovascular diseases are under investigation: cell therapy, gene therapy and the more recent “tissue-engineering” therapy . During my Ph.D. course, first I focalised my study on the isolation and characterization of Cardiac Stem Cells (CSCs) in wild-type and transgenic mice and for this purpose I attended, for more than one year, the Cardiovascular Research Institute of the New York Medical College, in Valhalla (NY, USA) under the direction of Doctor Piero Anversa. During this period I learnt different Immunohistochemical and Biomolecular techniques, useful for investigating the regenerative potential of stem cells. Then, during the next two years, I studied the new approach of cardiac regenerative medicine based on “tissue-engineering” in order to investigate a new strategy to regenerate the infracted myocardium. Tissue-engineering is a promising approach that makes possible the creation of new functional tissue to replace lost or failing tissue. This new discipline combines isolated functioning cells and biodegradable 3-dimensional (3D) polymeric scaffolds. The scaffold temporarily provides the biomechanical support for the cells until they produce their own extracellular matrix. Because tissue-engineering constructs contain living cells, they may have the potential for growth and cellular self-repair and remodeling. In the present study, I examined whether the tissue-engineering strategy within hyaluron-based scaffolds would result in the formation of alternative cardiac tissue that could replace the scar and improve cardiac function after MI in syngeneic heterotopic rat hearts. Rat hearts were explanted, subjected to left coronary descending artery occlusion, and then grafted into the abdomen (aorta-aorta anastomosis) of receiving syngeneic rat. After 2 weeks, a pouch of 3 mm2 was made in the thickness of the ventricular wall at the level of the post-infarction scar. The hyaluronic scaffold, previously engineered for 3 weeks with rat MSCs, was introduced into the pouch and the myocardial edges sutured with few stitches. Two weeks later we evaluated the cardiac function by M-Mode echocardiography and the myocardial morphology by microscope analysis. We chose bone marrow-derived mensenchymal stem cells (MSCs) because they have shown great signaling and regenerative properties when delivered to heart tissue following a myocardial infarction (MI). However, while the object of cell transplantation is to improve ventricular function, cardiac cell transplantation has had limited success because of poor graft viability and low cell retention, that’s why we decided to combine MSCs with a biopolimeric scaffold. At the end of the experiments we observed that the hyaluronan fibres had not been substantially degraded 2 weeks after heart-transplantation. Most MSCs had migrated to the surrounding infarcted area where they were especially found close to small-sized vessels. Scar tissue was moderated in the engrafted region and the thickness of the corresponding ventricular wall was comparable to that of the non-infarcted remote area. Also, the left ventricular shortening fraction, evaluated by M-Mode echocardiography, was found a little bit increased when compared to that measured just before construct transplantation. Therefore, this study suggests that post-infarction myocardial remodelling can be favourably affected by the grafting of MSCs delivered through a hyaluron-based scaffold
Resumo:
The present study is part of the EU Integrated Project “GEHA – Genetics of Healthy Aging” (Franceschi C et al., Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1100: 21-45, 2007), whose aim is to identify genes involved in healthy aging and longevity, which allow individuals to survive to advanced age in good cognitive and physical function and in the absence of major age-related diseases. Aims The major aims of this thesis were the following: 1. to outline the recruitment procedure of 90+ Italian siblings performed by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The procedures related to the following items necessary to perform the study were described and commented: identification of the eligible area for recruitment, demographic aspects related to the need of getting census lists of 90+siblings, mail and phone contact with 90+ subjects and their families, bioethics aspects of the whole procedure, standardization of the recruitment methodology and set-up of a detailed flow chart to be followed by the European recruitment centres (obtainment of the informed consent form, anonimization of data by using a special code, how to perform the interview, how to collect the blood, how to enter data in the GEHA Phenotypic Data Base hosted at Odense). 2. to provide an overview of the phenotypic characteristics of 90+ Italian siblings recruited by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The following items were addressed: socio-demographic characteristics, health status, cognitive assessment, physical conditions (handgrip strength test, chair-stand test, physical ability including ADL, vision and hearing ability, movement ability and doing light housework), life-style information (smoking and drinking habits) and subjective well-being (attitude towards life). Moreover, haematological parameters collected in the 90+ sibpairs as optional parameters by the Bologna and Rome recruiting units were used for a more comprehensive evaluation of the results obtained using the above mentioned phenotypic characteristics reported in the GEHA questionnaire. 3. to assess 90+ Italian siblings as far as their health/functional status is concerned on the basis of three classification methods proposed in previous studies on centenarians, which are based on: • actual functional capabilities (ADL, SMMSE, visual and hearing abilities) (Gondo et al., J Gerontol. 61A (3): 305-310, 2006); • actual functional capabilities and morbidity (ADL, ability to walk, SMMSE, presence of cancer, ictus, renal failure, anaemia, and liver diseases) (Franceschi et al., Aging Clin Exp Res, 12:77-84, 2000); • retrospectively collected data about past history of morbidity and age of disease onset (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cancer, osteopororis, neurological diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ocular diseases) (Evert et al., J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 58A (3): 232-237, 2003). Firstly these available models to define the health status of long-living subjects were applied to the sample and, since the classifications by Gondo and Franceschi are both based on the present functional status, they were compared in order to better recognize the healthy aging phenotype and to identify the best group of 90+ subjects out of the entire studied population. 4. to investigate the concordance of health and functional status among 90+ siblings in order to divide sibpairs in three categories: the best (both sibs are in good shape), the worst (both sibs are in bad shape) and an intermediate group (one sib is in good shape and the other is in bad shape). Moreover, the evaluation wanted to discover which variables are concordant among siblings; thus, concordant variables could be considered as familiar variables (determined by the environment or by genetics). 5. to perform a survival analysis by using mortality data at 1st January 2009 from the follow-up as the main outcome and selected functional and clinical parameters as explanatory variables. Methods A total of 765 90+ Italian subjects recruited by UNIBO (549 90+ siblings, belonging to 258 families) and ISS (216 90+ siblings, belonging to 106 families) recruiting units are included in the analysis. Each subject was interviewed according to a standardized questionnaire, comprising extensively utilized questions that have been validated in previous European studies on elderly subjects and covering demographic information, life style, living conditions, cognitive status (SMMSE), mood, health status and anthropometric measurements. Moreover, subjects were asked to perform some physical tests (Hand Grip Strength test and Chair Standing test) and a sample of about 24 mL of blood was collected and then processed according to a common protocol for the preparation and storage of DNA aliquots. Results From the analysis the main findings are the following: - a standardized protocol to assess cognitive status, physical performances and health status of European nonagenarian subjects was set up, in respect to ethical requirements, and it is available as a reference for other studies in this field; - GEHA families are enriched in long-living members and extreme survival, and represent an appropriate model for the identification of genes involved in healthy aging and longevity; - two simplified sets of criteria to classify 90+ sibling according to their health status were proposed, as operational tools for distinguishing healthy from non healthy subjects; - cognitive and functional parameters have a major role in categorizing 90+ siblings for the health status; - parameters such as education and good physical abilities (500 metres walking ability, going up and down the stairs ability, high scores at hand grip and chair stand tests) are associated with a good health status (defined as “cognitive unimpairment and absence of disability”); - male nonagenarians show a more homogeneous phenotype than females, and, though far fewer in number, tend to be healthier than females; - in males the good health status is not protective for survival, confirming the male-female health survival paradox; - survival after age 90 was dependent mainly on intact cognitive status and absence of functional disabilities; - haemoglobin and creatinine levels are both associated with longevity; - the most concordant items among 90+ siblings are related to the functional status, indicating that they contain a familiar component. It is still to be investigated at what level this familiar component is determined by genetics or by environment or by the interaction between genetics, environment and chance (and at what level). Conclusions In conclusion, we could state that this study, in accordance with the main objectives of the whole GEHA project, represents one of the first attempt to identify the biological and non biological determinants of successful/unsuccessful aging and longevity. Here, the analysis was performed on 90+ siblings recruited in Northern and Central Italy and it could be used as a reference for others studies in this field on Italian population. Moreover, it contributed to the definition of “successful” and “unsuccessful” aging and categorising a very large cohort of our most elderly subjects into “successful” and “unsuccessful” groups provided an unrivalled opportunity to detect some of the basic genetic/molecular mechanisms which underpin good health as opposed to chronic disability. Discoveries in the topic of the biological determinants of healthy aging represent a real possibility to identify new markers to be utilized for the identification of subgroups of old European citizens having a higher risk to develop age-related diseases and disabilities and to direct major preventive medicine strategies for the new epidemic of chronic disease in the 21st century.
Resumo:
Background. Neuroblastoma is the most deadly solid tumor of childhood. In the 25% of cases it is associated with MYCN amplification (MA), resulting in the disregulation of several genes involved in cancer progression, chemotherapy resistance and poor prognosis causing the disregulation of several genes involved in cancer progression and chemotherapy resistance and resulting in a poor prognosis. Moreover, in this contest, therapy-related p53 mutations are frequently found in relapsed cases conferring an even stronger aggressiveness. For this reason, the actual therapy requires new antitumor molecules. Therefore, rapid, accurate, and reproducible preclinical models are needed to evaluate the evolution of the different subtypes and the efficacy of new pharmacological strategies. Procedures. We report the real-time tumorigenesis of MA Neuroblastoma mouse models: transgenic TH-MYCN mice and orthotopic xenograft models with either p53wt or p53mut, by non-invasive micro PET and bioluminescent imaging, respectively. Characterization of MYCN amplification and expression was performed on every collected sample. We tested the efficacy of a new MYCN inhibitor in vitro and in vivo. Results. MicroPET in TH-MYCN mice permitted the identification of Neuroblastoma at an early stage and offered a sensitive method to follow metabolic progression of tumors. The MA orthotopic model harboring multitherapy-related p53 mutations showed a shorter latency and progression and a stronger aggressiveness respect to the p53wt model. The presence of MA and overexpression was confirmed in each model and we saw a better survival in the TH-MYCN homozigous mice treated with the inhibitor. Conclusions. The mouse models obtained show characteristics of non-invasiveness, rapidity and sensitivity that make them suitable for the in vivo preclinical study of MA-NB. In particular, our firstly reported p53mut BLI xenograft orthotopic mouse model offers the possibility to evaluate the role of multitherapy-related p53 mutations and to validate new p53 independent therapies for this highly aggressive Neuroblastoma subtype. Moreover, we have shown potential clinical suitability of an antigene strategy through its cellular and molecular activity, ability to specifically inhibit transcription and in vivo efficacy with no evidence of toxicity.
Resumo:
Der Globale Wandel ist im Begriff, den Tourismus zu verändern. Die Wechselwirkung von Tourismus und Klimawandel sind beidseitiger Art. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt Möglichkeiten der Adaption und einen wandelbaren Fremdenverkehr. Eine Übersicht der gängigen Tourismusmodelle stellt den Stand der Forschung dar. Der Fremdenverkehr ist durch drei Faktoren massiv geprägt: Die Nachfrage und Motivation, die Reisemittler und Veranstalter sowie das Destinationsangebot. Bei der Motivation wirken Motiv und Anreiz Motivationspsychologisch betrachtet auf die Reiseentscheidung deren Grundlage verarbeitete Informationen sind. Reisemittler und Veranstalter haben einen großen Einfluss auf Entscheidungsprozesse. Neue IuK Technologien haben deren Arbeit grundlegend verändert. Das Tourismusangebot wird stark durch die naturräumlichen Gegebenheiten sowie das politische System bestimmt. Überlebenswichtig für die Destination ist die evolutionstheoretisch etrachtete Fitnessmaximierung also Adaption und Wandel, um sich an geänderte Rahmenbedingungen anpassen zu können. Gerade im Bereich des Klimawandels müssen Maßnahmen ergriffen werden. Aber auch die Marktsättigung gerade in Verbindung mit der aktuellen Finanzkrise wirkt besonders schwer auf die Destination. Eine hohes Innovationsvermögen, Trendscanning und der Zusammenschluss in flexiblen Netzwerkclustern können einen Kundenmehrwert erzeugen. Die Fitnessmaximierung ist somit Überlebensziel der Destination und führt zur Kundenzufriedenheit die im Sättigungsmarkt alleinig Wachstum generieren kann.