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This study aims to analyze various index stock exchanges around the world, with mathematical methods, analyzing the Product Distribution function (PDF), cumulative distribution and correlation. It is thought that the world economy is connected, as if the financial markets were a network, where the fluctuation of a market generates a variation on another and another, creating a pattern, that this change will affect the entire network, thus creating what we might call the domino effect. From this we intend to study, using as a basis the main index of the major stock exchanges around the world the relationship they have with each other, analyzing the influence and correlation that generates this effect, showing that markets are connected and influence each other. We can see this effect in the crisis of 2008, where the U.S. market from one moment to the other was shaken, affecting the whole world in a few days, creating effects that are felt in the present day

Interpretação da crise financeira mundial sob a perspectiva de David Harvey

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

A preservação da empresa diante da tutela do consumidor superendividado

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Geoestratégia das Ilhas Falklands: conflito entre Argentina e Reino Unido

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Understanding Recent Developments in the Turkish Labor Market: Empirical Essays with a Gender Focus

This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.

Enti locali e società di capitali nella gestione di servizi pubblici locali e strumentali

La gestione di servizi pubblici locali e di servizi strumentali tramite società di capitali partecipate da enti locali viene esplorata in vista di una riconsiderazione generale del sistema all'interno del contesto socio-economico sviluppatosi negli anni successivi alla crisi economica mondiale dell'anno 2008.

Land deals intensify competition for scarce resources

Since the worldwide food price crisis of 2008, foreign investors have rushed to acquire large amounts of agricultural land in poorer countries. Some observers welcome this, claiming that outside investment in ostensibly underused land will jump-start local development. Others regard such investments as land grabs, stressing that the areas are rarely empty and that local people have little say. This brief identifies the types of land targeted by investors and reveals key socio-ecological patterns of such deals. The evidence indicates that foreign investments are intensifying competition for the best land. Ensuring that such deals instead contribute to sustainable, inclusive use of land requires strong public guidance and oversight.

Poland and Greece - two contrasting EU enlargement experiences. ZEI Discussion Paper C213, 2012

The aim of this contribution is a comparative analysis of the challenges Poland and Greece (and more broadly – CEE-10 and GIPS countries) had to face in the past as latecomers to the European Union and are facing now, in the aftermath of the world financial and economic crisis of 2008-09. The main underlying message conveyed in this text is two-fold. Firstly, the author is going to argue that the breadth and complexity of the challenges Poland and other CEE-10 countries had to face while entering the road of systemic transformation was by far greater compared to past and in particular – current problems of Greece (and the remaining GIPS countries) in the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-09. Secondly, a resilience of Poland and other CEE-10 economies, relative to Greece and other GIPS, to the recent crisis was due to a comparatively higher level of institutional development of the former group at the time of their EU accession and at present. The ensuing discussion is organized as follows. Section 2 below provides comparative background information on the two reference groups. In Section 3 we discuss the most salient features of the design of the command economy and its legacy, as a key determinant of the initial conditions of systemic transformation. Next, in Section 4 we overview the basic indicators of growth performance and institutional reforms in CEE-10 countries between 1990 and 2011. Section 5 offers a picture of economic growth and real economic convergence in Greece and the remaining GIPS countries. In Section 6 we embark on comparative analysis of the institutional quality of Greece and Poland against a broader background of GIPS, CEE-10 and the remaining EU member countries. Section 7 concludes with a summary of major findings.

Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova and the Chinese economic expansion in Eastern Europe. OSW Commentary No. 79, 2012-05-28

The countries of Eastern European and China have been increasingly interested in deepening bilateral contacts over the past few years. In the case of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova this has been caused by the bad economic situation which was in part caused by the consequences of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the desire to establish closer political relations with a country whose significance on the international arena is continually growing. Each of these countries has different expectations regarding the scale and the nature of co-operation with China. Chisinau wishes only to boost trade, whereas in Minsk and Kyiv, Beijing is also presented as a strategic partner whose investments may not only help the indebted economies recover but also strengthen the position of these countries in their dealings with the EU, and especially with Russia. Beijing sees co-operation with these countries in differently, and its offer is much more modest than Belarus and Ukraine are expecting. Eastern Europe is one of the last parts of the world with which China is activating its co-operation. This is not a priority region for Beijing. China wants to derive economic benefits and to diversify the markets on which it invests its financial surplus, and it does not intend to extend its political dialogue with Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova beyond the framework which determines its economic interests. The main reason for this is the nature of relations between Russia and China. Beijing sees its partnership with Moscow as more beneficial, and will not offer these countries support in their relations with Russia since in its opinion they belong to Russia’s sphere of influence. Minsk and Kyiv are pinning too much hope on their co-operation with Beijing, while China offers no real counterbalance to the Russian and EU influences in these countries. Nevertheless, it should be expected that China will capitalise on the beneficial political climate in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to reinforce its influence in a region whose location will facilitate its expansion to the EU and the Customs Union markets. In the medium term, Beijing may become a major economic player in Eastern Europe. In a decade’s time this may translate into political influence. Meanwhile, in the short term, China’s financial engagement in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova will contribute to increasing the debts and deepening the foreign trade deficits of these countries.

Discussions in Europe on Variable Compensation in the Financial Sector. EU Centre Singapore Working Paper no. 20, February 2014

Bonuses – which are often used to mitigate principal-agent problems and to encourage employees to work harder – have increased tremendously in the financial sector during the last decade, and have often been seen as a contributing factor to the financial crisis of 2008. The recent European Union (EU) action to adopt a policy that restricts bonuses paid to bankers may seem promising at first, but this does not address the real issues behind variable rewards. Compensation policies should be changed to encourage responsible risk-taking and decision-making through the implementation of broader performance metrics, forfeitable holdbacks and hybrid bonds. Furthermore, a change in organisational culture is needed to improve ethical behaviour leading to a re-balancing of stakeholders’ interests in the financial sector.

Spesa pubblica in Sanità, Istruzione e Ricerca: efficienza, efficacia e determinanti

La ricerca intende analizzare l’efficacia della spesa pubblica, l’efficienza e le loro determinanti nei settori della Sanità, dell’Istruzione e della Ricerca per 33 paesi dell’area OCSE. L’analisi ha un duplice obiettivo: da un lato un confronto cross country e dall’altro un confronto temporale, prendendo in considerazione il periodo che va dal 1992 al 2011. Il tema della valutazione dell’efficacia e dell’efficienza della spesa pubblica è molto attuale, soprattutto in Europa, sia perché essa incide di quasi il 50% sul PIL, sia a causa della crisi finanziaria del 2008 che ha spinto i governi ad una riduzione dei bugdet e ad un loro uso più oculato. La scelta di concentrare il lavoro di analisi nei settori della Sanità, dell’Istruzione e della Ricerca e Sviluppo deriva da un lato dalla loro peculiarità di attività orientate al cliente (scuole, ospedali, tribunali) dall’altro dal ruolo strategico che essi rappresentano per lo sviluppo economico di un paese. Il lavoro è articolato in tre sezioni: 1. Rassegna dei principali strumenti metodologici utilizzati in letteratura per la misurazione della performance e dell’efficienza della spesa pubblica nei tre settori. 2. Valutazione e confronto dell’efficienza e della performance della spesa pubblica dal punto di vista sia temporale sia cross-country attraverso la costruzione di indicatori di performance e di efficienza della spesa pubblica (per approfondire l'indice dell'efficienza ho applicato la tecnica DEA "bootstrap output oriented" con indicatori di output ed input non simultanei mentre l’evoluzione dell’efficienza tra i periodi 2011-2002 e 2001-1992 è stata analizzata attraverso il calcolo dell’indice di Malmquist). 3. Analisi delle variabili esogene che influenzano l’efficienza della spesa pubblica nei settori Salute, Istruzione e Ricerca e Sviluppo attraverso una regressione Tobit avente come variabile dipendente i punteggi di efficienza DEA output oriented e come variabili esogene alcuni indicatori scelti tra quelli presenti in letteratura: l’Indicatore delle condizioni socioeconomiche delle famiglie (costruito e applicato da OCSE PISA per valutare l’impatto del background familiare nelle performance dell’apprendimento), l’Indicatore di fiducia nel sistema legislativo del paese, l’Indicatore di tutela dei diritti di proprietà, l’Indicatore delle azioni di controllo della corruzione, l’Indicatore di efficacia delle azioni di governo, l’Indicatore della qualità dei regolamenti, il PIL pro-capite. Da questo lavoro emergono risultati interessanti: non sempre alla quantità di risorse impiegate corrisponde il livello massimo di performance raggiungibile. I risultati della DEA evidenziano la media dei punteggi di efficienza corretti di 0,712 e quindi, impiegando la stessa quantità di risorse, si produrrebbe un potenziale miglioramento dell’output generato di circa il 29%. Svezia, Giappone, Finlandia e Germania risultano i paesi più efficienti, più vicini alla frontiera, mentre Slovacchia, Portogallo e Ungheria sono più distanti dalla frontiera con una misura di inefficienza di circa il 40%. Per quanto riguarda il confronto tra l’efficienza della spesa pubblica nei tre settori tra i periodi 1992-2001 e 2002-2011, l’indice di Malmquist mostra risultati interessanti: i paesi che hanno migliorato il loro livello di efficienza sono quelli dell’Est come l’Estonia, la Slovacchia, la Lituania mentre Paesi Bassi, Belgio e Stati Uniti hanno peggiorato la loro posizione. I paesi che risultano efficienti nella DEA come Finlandia, Germania e Svezia sono rimasti sostanzialmente fermi con un indice di Malmquist vicino al valore uno. In conclusione, i risultati della Tobit contengono indicazioni importanti per orientare le scelte dei Governi. Dall’analisi effettuata emerge che la fiducia nelle leggi, la lotta di contrasto alla corruzione, l’efficacia del governo, la tutela dei diritti di proprietà, le condizioni socioeconomiche delle famiglie degli studenti OECD PISA, influenzano positivamente l’efficienza della spesa pubblica nei tre settori indagati. Oltre alla spending review, per aumentare l’efficienza e migliorare la performance della spesa pubblica nei tre settori, è indispensabile per gli Stati la capacità di realizzare delle riforme che siano in grado di garantire il corretto funzionamento delle istituzioni.

Centre-periphery tensions regarding Central and Eastern Europe

Security issues have played an important role in widening the European Union with eight Central and Eastern European economies. The time since have proved these concerns to be correct. The present North-South tension within the Euro-zone highlights even more the West-East tensions inherent in the international relations since the Eastern enlargement. Various divisions – political and economic alike – have already been felt throughout the whole period of 2004-20122 (Balázs, J.1985, 1993, 1995, 1996). The worldwide economic crisis of 2008, however, has revealed even more the hidden tensions in these relations. The political events after the 2010 election in Hungary, those in Romania in 2012, the continuous anti-EU declarations of the Czech president present ample evidence to the fact: the enlargement has been based more on political wishes and will than on firm economic reasoning. The outcome is constant struggle between the parties to keep face and save the state of the European Union. Ongoing political and economic struggles around Greece, Portugal and Spain are other forms of fundamental problems within the European Union. It is worthwhile, hence to study the almost forgotten centre – periphery relations in this respect.

Kérdőjelek a közgazdaságtanban és oktatásában = Challenges in economic research and education

Ez az esszé a teljesség igénye nélkül kísérli meg áttekinteni azt, hogy mire vezetett a közgazdaságtan világméretekben megindult és a 2008-2009. évi válság lezáratlansága miatt vélhetően évtizedes szinten zajló önvizsgálata. A tudományszak egészét egyszerre jellemzi egyfajta tartalmi kiüresedés és a társtudományokkal való erőteljesebb kapcsolatkeresés, a módszertanok és az iskolák egymás mellett élése - ami egyáltalán nem békés -, valamint a gyakorlat által felvetett kérdések elméleti általánosításának igénye. A magyar közgazdaságtan hagyományos követő szerepe megmaradt, viszont a képzésben szerzett negyedszázados tapasztalatok és az új globális kihívások lényegi átalakításokat indokolnának a mai, túlságosan egységesített képzésben. _____ This essay joins the soul-searching that has developed globally among economists since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, whose still open-ended outcomes make it likely that such self-critical reassessments will continue in the years to come. Economics is marked by the parallel existence of substantive hollowing and in-creased reliance on interfaces with neighbouring disciplines. So the plurality and none-too-peaceful coexistence of schools and methodologies is likely to persist. Similarly abundant are the attempts to theorize and generalize new phenomena in policy and business practices. Hungarian economics continues to be a follower - a trend-taker rather than trend-setter - as it was in the inter-war period. Experience has been accumulating for over 25 years in introducing Western-style higher education in economics. The increase of student numbers and steep decrease in public funding thereof call for major restructuring in curricula, institutions and teaching methods and styles alike.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.