What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Seller, buyer and VPP agents behavior on a simulated electricity market

Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents’ behavior. Agents’ behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.

Dietary patterns and risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors), was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14), whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study data suggest that the traditional Brazilian diet, consisting of rice and beans plus moderate amounts of meat, may confer protection against oral cancer, independently of any other risk factors such as alcohol intake and smoking.

Core group approach to identify college students at risk for sexually transmitted infections

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the core group for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among college students. METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out in a convenience sample comprising 711 college students of the public university of Morelos, Mexico, between 2001 and 2003. Sociodemographic and sexual behavior information were collected using self-applied questionnaires. Herpes simplex 2 (HSV-2) infection was tested in the blood. The number of sexual partners in the last year and cocaine consumption were used as indicators to construct the dependent variable "level of STI risk" in three categories: low, medium and high risk (core group). A multinomial analysis was conducted to evaluate whether different sex behaviors were associated with the variable "level of STI risk". RESULTS: There was significant association between HSV-2 seroprevalence and the variable "level of STI risk": 13%, 5.6% and 3.8% were found in high (core group), medium and low categories, respectively. There were gender differences regarding the core group. Men started having sexual intercourse earlier, had more sex partners, higher alcohol and drug consumption, higher frequency of sex intercourse with sex workers, exchanging sex for money, occasional and concurrent partners compared to women. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest existing contextual characteristics in the study population that affect their sex behavior. In Mexico, the cultural conception of sexuality is determined mainly by gender differences where men engage in higher risky sexual behavior than women.

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

Sedentary behavior in Brazilian children and adolescents: a systematic review

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the methodological characteristics of the studies selected and assess variables associated with sedentary behavior in Brazilian children and adolescents. METHODS For this systematic review, we searched four electronic databases: PubMed, Web of Knowledge, LILACS, SciELO. Also, electronic searches were applied in Google Scholar. A supplementary search was conducted in the references lists of the included articles and in non-indexed journals. We included observational studies with children and adolescents aged from three to 19 years developed in Brazil, presenting analyses of associations based on regression methods and published until September 30, 2014. RESULTS Of the 255 potential references retrieved by the searches, 49 met the inclusion criteria and composed the descriptive synthesis. In this set, we identified a great number of cross-sectional studies (n = 43; 88.0%) and high methodological variability on the types of sedentary behavior assessed, measurement tools and cut-off points used. The variables most often associated with sedentary behavior were “high levels of body weight” (in 15 out of 27 studies; 55.0%) and “lower level of physical activity” (in eight out of 16 studies; 50.0%). CONCLUSIONS The findings of this review raise the following demands to the Brazilian agenda of sedentary behavior research geared to children and adolescents: development of longitudinal studies, validation of measuring tools, establishment of risk cut-offs, measurement of sedentary behavior beyond screen time and use of objective measures in addition to questionnaires. In the articles available, the associations between sedentary behavior with “high levels of body weight” and “low levels of physical activity” were observed in different regions of Brazil.

Evolutive behavior towards cardiomyopathy of treated (nifurtimox or benznidazole) and untreated chronic chagasic patients

The aim of this work was to compare the evolution of chronic chagasic untreated patients (UTPs) with that of benznidazole or nifurtimox-treated patients (TPs). A longitudinal study from a low endemic area (Santa Fe city, Argentina) was performed during an average period of 14 years. Serological and parasitological analyses with clinical exams, ECG and X-chest ray were carried out. At the onset, 19/198 infected patients showed chagasic cardiomyopathy (CrChM) while 179 were asymptomatic. In this latter group the frequency of CrChM during the follow-up was lower in TPs compared with UTPs (3.2% vs 7%). Within the CrChM group, 2/5 TPs showed aggravated myopathy whereas this happened in 9/14 UTPs. Comparing the clinical evolution of all patients, 5.9% of TPs and 13% of UTPs had unfavourable evolution, but the difference is not statistically relevant. Serological titers were assessed by IIF. Titers equal to or lower than 1/64 were obtained in 86% of the TPs, but only in 38% of UTPs. The differences were statistically significant (geometric mean: 49.36 vs. 98.2). Antiparasitic assessment of the drugs (xenodiagnosis) proved to be effective. The low sensitivity in chronic chagasic patients must be born in mind. Despite treated patients showed a better clinical evolution and lower antibody levels than untreated ones, it is necessary to carry on doing research in order to improve therapeutic guidelines, according to the risk/benefit equation and based on scientific and ethical principles.

Serological markers and risk factors for hepatitis B and C viruses in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus

Both hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses (HBV and HCV) infection are common in HIV-infected individuals as a result of shared risk factors for acquisition. A serological study for HBV and HCV was performed in 251 HIV-positive individuals from Medellín, Colombia. A qualitative RT-PCR for HCV was done in 90 patients with CD4+ T-cell count < 150 per mm³. Serological markers for HBV infection were present in 97 (38.6%) patients. Thirty six of them (37.1%) had isolated anti-HBc. A multivariate analysis indicated that the following risk factors were significantly associated with the presence of these markers: age (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.08), pediculosis pubis (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.01-3.33), men who have sex with men and women (OR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.46-7.13) and men who have sex only with men (OR = 3.73, 95% CI: 1.58-8.78). The same analysis restricted to women showed syphilis as the only significant risk factor. Thus, HBV infection was considerably associated with high risk sexual behavior. HCV was present in only two (0.8%) of HIV patients. Both of them were positive by RT-PCR and anti-HCV. This low frequency of HIV/HCV coinfection was probably due to the uncommon intravenous drug abuse in this population. The frequent finding of isolated anti-HBc warrants molecular approaches to rule out the presence of cryptic HBV infection.

Risk-factors for non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy

Cross-sectional study analyzed as case-control to identify risk factors for non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy. We studied 412 out-clinics HIV infected subjects of three public hospitals of Recife, Pernambuco. The objective was to examine the association between non-adherence to the antiretroviral therapy and biological, social-behavior and demographics and economic factors, factors related to the disease and/or treatment, factors related to life habits and depression symptoms. Variables significantly associated with non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy were: time elapsed since HIV diagnosis (p = 0.002), daily dose (p = 0.046), use of alcohol (p = 0.030) and past drug use (p = 0.048), and borderline p-values were found for educational level (p = 0.093) and family monthly income (p = 0.08). In the multivariable analysis, the factors that remained in the final model were family monthly income, time period with HIV infection and use of alcohol. No association was observed between non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy and gender, age, sexual orientation, marital status, educational level and place of residence. Based on our results and the local situation we suggest: assessment of social needs; training of partners and/or families on supporting adherence, creation of "adherence groups" to motivate and to reassure patients on the benefits of treatment; counseling and/or psychotherapy for alcohol drinkers.

Prevalence and risk factors for intestinal protozoa infection in elderly residents at Long Term Residency Institutions in Southeastern Brazil

This study determined the prevalence of intestinal protozoa in Long Term Residency Institutions for the Elderly (ILPI) in elders, nurses and food handlers, identifying the risk factors associated with the infections. Stool samples taken from the elderly (n = 293), nurses (63) and food handlers (19) were studied. Questionnaires were used with questions related to sociodemographic variables, health, behavior and health characteristics. Stool samples were examined using the techniques of Faust and Ziehl Neelsen, and the prevalence of G. duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., E. histolytica/dispar in the elderly was 4.0%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. Nurses and food handlers showed 4.8% and 5.2% positivity only for G. duodenalis, respectively. The origin of the individuals and contact with domestic animals has been associated with infection by G. duodenalis in the elderly, and contact with domestic animals was considered a risk factor for infection. The last stool examinations were related to Cryptosporidium spp.. None of the variables were associated with E. histolytica/dispar. The frequency of hand washing was significantly associated with G. duodenalis among nurses. The frequency of positive samples of G. duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., E. histolytica/dispar showed that ILPIs environments are conducive to this occurring due to contact between the elderly, nurses and food handlers, which are often poorly trained in hygiene procedures and food handling.

RISK FACTORS OF HIV-1 VERTICAL TRANSMISSION (VT) AND THE INFLUENCE OF ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY (ART) IN PREGNANCY OUTCOME

In the absence of intervention, the rate of vertical transmission of HIV can range from 15-45%. With the inclusion of antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy and the choice of delivery route this amounts to less than 2%. However ARV use during pregnancy has generated several questions regarding the adverse effects of the gestational and neonatal outcome. This study aims to analyze the risk factors for vertical transmission of HIV-1 seropositive pregnant women living in Rio Grande and the influence of the use of ARVs in pregnancy outcome. Among the 262 pregnant women studied the rate of vertical transmission of HIV was found to be 3.8%. Regarding the VT, there was a lower risk of transmission when antiretroviral drugs were used and prenatal care was conducted at the referral service. However, the use of ART did not influence the outcome of pregnancy. However, initiation of prenatal care after the first trimester had an influence on low birth weight, as well as performance of less than six visits increased the risk of prematurity. Therefore, the risk factors analyzed in this study appear to be related to the realization of inadequate pre-natal and maternal behavior.

The impact of corporate social responsibility on consumer behavior: The role of profit-seeking and altruistic perceived motives

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risky behavior regarding drug use and HIV infection: an Internet questionnaire coupled with short education texts for Portuguese speakers

Surveys of risky behavior relating to HIV/AIDS are generally made for groups at risk of infection, for which HIV/AIDS prevalence is usually expected to be higher than in the general population. Therefore, an educational homepage in Portuguese was created on the Internet to inform/ask internauts regarding knowledge and behavior. The internauts were classified as adolescents (13 to 25 years) and adults (>25 years). The number of STDs was reported as 1. 8 ± 2. 6 infections (range: 1 to 20 infections); 43% used condoms during sexual intercourse. Alcohol consumption was reported by 63% and illicit drug use by 32% (marijuana 24% and inhalants 15%). Among the adolescents, 31% did not classified alcohol as a drug. The adults more frequently reported homosexuality, anal intercourse and STDs, although the adolescents also presented high rates of risky behavior. These results show the need to reach out to internauts through better control strategies. Different types of strategies must be encouraged, in order to reach people that use this means of communication and entertainment.

Consumer behavior: Online grocery shopping in Portugal

Living in the digital era, activities that have for centuries acted one way, have now changed and entered the online world, and online grocery shopping is one of them. It is a worldwide phenomenon and is already a significant part of people’s lifestyle in several countries however, in Portugal, it is still in expansion and improvement. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study allowed to estimate how the perceived risk and shopping orientation counterbalances the convenience offered to consumers. Furthermore, it validated how usability and access to focused promotions can help speed up this adaptation in Portugal

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.