Carrying capacity dashboard analyses : Australian case studies of populations scaled to place

In a globalised world, it makes sense to examine our demands on the landscape through the wide-angle lens of ecological footprint analysis. However, the important impetus towards a more localised societal system suggests a review of this approach and a return to its origins in carrying capacity assessment. The determination of whether we live within or beyond our carrying capacity is entirely scalar, with national, regional and local assessments dependent not only on the choices of the population but the capability of a landscape - at scale. The Carrying Capacity Dashboard, an openly accessible online modelling interface, has been developed for Australian conditions, facilitating analysis at various scales. Like ecological footprint analysis it allows users to test a variety of societal behaviours such as diet, consumption patterns, farming systems and ecological protection practices; but unlike the footprint approach, the results are uniquely tailored to place. This paper examines population estimates generated by the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. It compares results in various scales of analysis, from national to local. It examines the key behavioural choices influencing Australian carrying capacity estimates. For instance, the assumption that the consumption of red meat automatically lowers carrying capacity is examined and in some cases, debunked. Lastly, it examines the implications of implementing carrying capacity assessment globally, but not through a wide angle lens; rather, by examining the landscape one locality at a time.

Anticipating the use of life extension technologies : possible pointers from the adoption of assisted reproductive technologies

The first effective life extension technologies might well become available within the next few years. Experts from the University of Queensland, Australia, explore the possible public reaction to these therapies and the ethical and social concerns they raise, drawing on the experience of assisted reproduction technologies

Contraceptive changes after reproductive events among Australian women born in 1973 to 1978: A longitudinal study from 1996 to 2009

Background Women change contraception as they try to conceive, space births, and limit family size. This longitudinal analysis examines contraception changes after reproductive events such as birth, miscarriage or termination among Australian women born from 1973 to 1978 to identify potential opportunities to increase the effectiveness of contraceptive information and service provision. Methods Between 1996 and 2009, 5,631 Australian women randomly sampled from the Australian universal health insurance (Medicare) database completed five self-report postal surveys. Three longitudinal logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between reproductive events (birth only, birth and miscarriage, miscarriage only, termination only, other multiple events, and no new event) and subsequent changes in contraceptive use (start using, stop using, switch method) compared with women who continued to use the same method. Results After women experienced only a birth, or a birth and a miscarriage, they were more likely to start using contraception. Women who experienced miscarriages were more likely to stop using contraception. Women who experienced terminations were more likely to switch methods. There was a significant interaction between reproductive events and time indicating more changes in contraceptive use as women reach their mid-30s. Conclusion Contraceptive use increases after the birth of a child, but decreases after miscarriage indicating the intention for family formation and spacing between children. Switching contraceptive methods after termination suggests these pregnancies were unintended and possibly due to contraceptive failure. Women’s contact with health professionals around the time of reproductive events provides an opportunity to provide contraceptive services.

The potential influence of Neoliberalism on the capacity and form of spatial adaptation

Human spatial environments must adapt to climate change. Spatial planning is central to climate change adaptation and potentially well suited to the task, however neoliberal influences and trends threaten this capacity. This paper explores the potential interaction of emerging research areas, the first of which pursues climate change adaptation through spatial planning and the second of which has observed the neoliberalisation of urban planning, The potential capacity and form of spatial adaptation within the context a planning environment influenced by neoliberal principles is evaluated. This influence relates to the themes of spatial scale, temporal scale, responsibility for action, strategies and mechanisms, accrual of benefits, negotiation of priorities and approach to uncertainty. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the influence of neoliberalism on spatial adaptation and presents examples of this approach in documents which underpin adaptation in Australia. It identifies the potential characteristics and the challenges and opportunities of spatial adaptation under a neoliberal frame. The neoliberal frame does not entirely preclude spatial adaptation but significantly influence its form. Neoliberal approaches involve individual action in response to private incentives and near term impacts while collective action, regulatory mechanisms and long term planning is approached cautiously. Challenges concern the degree to which collective action and a long term orientation are necessary, how individual adaptation relates to collective vulnerability and the prioritisation of adaptation by markets. Opportunities might involve the operability of individual and local adaptation, the existence of private incentives to adapt and the potential to align adaptation with entrepreneurial projects.

Fertility and infertility : studies in reproductive epidemiology in Australia

Worldwide, there are few large-scale epidemiological studies on infertility. In Australia, population-based research on infertility is limited to a few small-scale studies. Therefore, the prevalence of infertility and unmet need for specialist medical advice and treatment cannot be estimated reliably. Women who have used assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are recorded in treatment registries. However, there are many infertile women who are excluded from these clinical populations because they neither seek advice nor use treatment. The thesis was based on a biopsychosocial model of health and used the methods of reproductive epidemiology to address the lack of national data on the prevalence of infertility in Australia. Firstly, numbers of births and pregnancy losses were investigated in two generations of women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH). The ALSWH is a broad-ranging, longitudinal examination of biological, psychological and social factors that impact on women’s health and wellbeing. Women from three age cohorts were randomly sampled from the population using the universal public health insurance (i.e., Medicare) database and ALSWH participants were representative of the female population. However, the studies in the thesis only involved data from two cohorts. The younger cohort were born in 1973-78 and completed up to four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years, n=14247) and 2006 (28-33 years, n=9145). The mid-aged cohort were born in 1946-51 and completed four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 45-50 years n=13715) and 2004 (53-58 years, n=10905). Compared to other studies that focus on outcomes of single pregnancies, these studies included all pregnancy outcomes by developing comprehensive reproductive histories for each woman. Pregnancy outcomes included birth, miscarriage, stillbirth, termination and ectopic pregnancy. Women in the youngest cohort (born in 1973-78) were only just reaching their peak childbearing years and many (44%) had yet to report their first pregnancy outcome. Women from the mid-aged cohort (born 1946-51) had completed their reproductive lives and 92% were able to report on their lifetime pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy losses, especially miscarriage, were common for both generations of women. Secondly, the prevalence of infertility, seeking medical advice and using treatment was identified for these two generations of women. For the older generation, the lifetime prevalence of infertility and demand for treatment was investigated in the context of the specialist medical services which became available circa 1980. By this time, however, most of these older women had already been pregnant and completed their families. For women who experienced infertility (11%), their options for advice and treatment were limited and less than half (42%) had used any treatment. More recently for the younger generation of women, who were aged 28-33 years in 2006, specialist advice and treatment were extensively available. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5936), 17% had experienced infertility and the majority (72%) were able to access medical advice. However, after seeking advice only half of these infertile women had used treatment with fertility hormones or in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Overall for infertile women aged up to 33 years, only one-third had used these treatments. Thirdly, the barriers to accessing medical advice and using treatment for infertility were identified for women aged less than 34 years. Among a community sample of infertile women aged 28-33 years (ALSWH participants), self-reported depression was found to be a barrier to accessing medical advice. The characteristics of these infertile women in the community who had (n=121) or had not (n=110) used treatment were compared to infertile women aged 27-33 years (n=59) attending four fertility clinics. Compared to infertile women in the community, living in major cities and having private health insurance were associated with early use of treatment for infertility at specialist clinics by women aged <34 years. In contrast to most clinical studies of IVF, the final study reported in the thesis took into account repeated IVF cycles and the impact of women’s individual histories on IVF outcomes. Among 121 infertile women (aged 27-46 years) who had 286 IVF cycles, older age and prolonged use of the oral contraceptive pill were associated with fewer eggs collected. Further, women in particular occupations had lower proportions of eggs fertilised normally than women in other occupational groups. These studies form the first large-scale epidemiological examination of infertility in Australia. The finding that two-thirds of women with infertility had not used treatment indicates that there is an unmet need for specialist treatment in women aged less than 34 years. However, barriers to accessing treatment prevent women using ART at a younger age when there is a higher chance of pregnancy.

Vaccination to protect against infection of the female reproductive tract

Infection of the female genital tract can result in serious morbidities and mortalities from reproductive disability, pelvic inflammatory disease and cancer, to impacts on the fetus, such as infant blindness. While therapeutic agents are available, frequent testing and treatment is required to prevent the occurrence of the severe disease sequelae. Hence, sexually transmitted infections remain a major public health burden with ongoing social and economic barriers to prevention and treatment. Unfortunately, while there are two success stories in the development of vaccines to protect against HPV infection of the female reproductive tract, many serious infectious agents impacting on the female reproductive tract still have no vaccines available. Vaccination to prevent infection of the female reproductive tract is an inherently difficult target, with many impacting factors, such as appropriate vaccination strategies/mechanisms to induce a suitable protective response locally in the genital tract, variation in the local immune responses due to the hormonal cycle, selection of vaccine antigen(s) that confers effective protection against multiple variants of a single pathogen (e.g., the different serovars of Chlamydia trachomatis) and timing of the vaccine administration prior to infection exposure. Despite these difficulties, there are numerous ongoing efforts to develop effective vaccines against these infectious agents and it is likely that this important human health field will see further major developments in the next 5 years.

Effect of body position on measurements of diffusion capacity after exercise

Background--Pulmonary diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (Dlco), alveolar capillary membrane diffusing capacity (Dm), and pulmonary capillary blood volume (Vc) are all significantly reduced after exercise. Objective--To investigate whether measurement position affects this impaired gas transfer. Methods--Before and one, two, and four hours after incremental cycle ergometer exercise to fatigue, single breath Dlco, Dm, and Vc measurements were obtained in 10 healthy men in a randomly assigned supine and upright seated position. Results--After exercise, Dlco, Dm, and Vc were significantly depressed compared with baseline in both positions. The supine position produced significantly higher values over time for Dlco (5.22 (0.13) v 4.66 (0.15) ml/min/mm Hg/l, p = 0.022) and Dm (6.78 (0.19) v 6.03 (0.19) ml/min/mm Hg/l, p = 0.016), but there was no significant position effect for Vc. There was a similar pattern of change over time for Dlco, Dm, and Vc in the two positions. Conclusions--The change in Dlco after exercise appears to be primarily due to a decrease in Vc. Although the mechanism for the reduction in Vc cannot be determined from these data, passive relocation of blood to the periphery as the result of gravity can be discounted, suggesting that active vasoconstriction of the pulmonary vasculature and/or peripheral vasodilatation is occurring after exercise.

Ergodic capacity of the slotted amplify and forward relay channel with finite relays

Abstract—In this paper we investigate the capacity of a general class of the slotted amplify and forward (SAF) relaying protocol where multiple, though a finite number of relays may transmit in a given cooperative slot and the relay terminals being half-duplex have a finite slot memory capacity. We derive an expression for the capacity per channel use of this generalized SAF channel assuming all source to relay, relay to destination and source to destination channel gains are independent and modeled as complex Gaussian. We show through the analysis of eigenvalue distributions that the increase in limiting capacity per channel use is marginal with the increase of relay terminals.

Enhancing capacity for 'systematic' thinking in public health

The concept of being evidence based or evidence informed is widely acknowledged as an important component of decision-making. It is perhaps most universally referred to in medicine, however has extended into many other disciplines over the past decade, including public health. Evidence-based public health has been defined as the ‘conscientious, explicit and judicious use of current best evidence in making decisions about the care of communities and populations in the domain of health protection, disease prevention, health maintenance and improvement (health promotion)’.1 More recent literature favours the use of the term evidence informed over evidence based to acknowledge the varying influences on decisions in this complex field.2,3 Evidence-informed activities in any discipline require a specific set of skills in critical thinking. These skills include identifying the questions to be resolved, collecting relevant evidence, and assessing, synthesizing and distilling evidence in a way that can inform the set of activities to be undertaken as a result.

Higher education for capacity development or revenue maximisation? Lessons from transnational higher education programs at two Indonesian universities

HE has been changing rapidly due to globalisation that has increased the interconnectedness between nations and people throughout the world (Mok, 2012). As HE has manifested into different forms and governed by competing rationales in recent years, this paper focuses on transnational HE, which is an example of the interconnectedness of universities beyond the national borders. Indonesia is also influenced by the above changes. It took part in free-trade agreements that include HE as a sector to be liberated and accessed by international providers (Nizam, 2006). Indonesian universities found themselves bracing for the global competition for students and simultaneously having to improve their quality in order to survive amidst the growing competition. This competition gave birth to joint transnational HE programs with overseas partners among many Indonesian universities (Macaranas, 2010).

Reproductive health : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Chapter 3: Use of contraception

Chapter 3: Use of contraception. p15-32 Key findings: This section examines trends in the use of contraception between 1996 and 2006 by women who participated in the surveys for the 1973-1978 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. 1. The oral contraceptive pill was the most commonly used method of contraception at each survey, but its use decreased over time. 2.Of women who consistently used contraception, 40% used the oral contraceptive pill as their only method of contraception in at least three out of four surveys. 3. The proportion of women using condoms as their only method of contraception remained steady over time (15-18%) but only 3% of all women used condoms only at every survey. 4. The proportion of women using both condoms and the oral contraceptive pill remained steady at 13-14% of all women from Survey 1 to 3, but decreased to 8% of all women at Survey 4. 5. The use of methods other than the oral contraceptive pill and/or condoms increased at Survey 4. 6. The proportion of women using an implant (e.g. Implanon) remained steady between Surveys 3 and 4, with 3% of women using an implant only. Around one third of implant users at Survey 3 continued to use this method at Survey 4. 7. The main reasons for not using contraception at Surveys 3 and 4 were pregnancy, trying to conceive, or no male sexual partners. 8. Women who used contraception were more likely to be in de facto relationships or single, be up to date with Pap tests and have had two or more births. 9. Women who did not use contraception were more likely to be non-drinkers and/or do low levels of exercise, have had one birth and have experienced miscarriage. 10. Contraception changed in expected ways according to reproductive events: women who reported only miscarriages between surveys also stopped using contraception in the same period; most women who did not report reproductive events continued to use the same method of contraception; and women who had a termination tended to switch methods.

Reproductive health: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Chapter 5: fertility and infertility

Chapter 5: Fertility and infertility. p52-70. This section describes patterns of fertility across Surveys 1 to 4 among the cohort of women who were born in 1973-1978. This section includes the examination of pregnancy outcomes including both live births and pregnancy losses (stillbirths, miscarriages, terminations and ectopic pregnancies). This section also examines the prevalence of self-reported problems with fertility and whether these women sought advice and/or treatment. As women age they are more likely to experience infertility and, with little other data available, the ALSWH provides an important opportunity to examine this problem and the related use of health services. 1. Pregnancy losses are common. Half of the women who report a pregnancy outcome at Survey 4 have experienced a pregnancy loss. 2. More than one third (39%) of women who have experienced a live birth by Survey 4 have also experienced a pregnancy loss. 3. For every ten women aged 28-33 years in 2006: four women had not had been pregnant, five women had a live birth (with or without a recognised pregnancy loss), and one woman had a recognised pregnancy loss only. 4. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant, one-in-six had experienced infertility. (i.e. tried unsuccessfully to get pregnant for 12 months or more) 5. The most significant factors associated with having infertility, seeking advice and using treatment were: polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis and miscarriage. 6. Of the women who reported infertility, two-thirds sought advice but only half used treatment. 7. Most of the women who used fertility treatment had used low cost and non-invasive methods.

Application of clustering technique to generating capacity state model for reliability evaluation

Capacity probability models of generating units are commonly used in many power system reliability studies, at hierarchical level one (HLI). Analytical modelling of a generating system with many units or generating units with many derated states in a system, can result in an extensive number of states in the capacity model. Limitations on available memory and computational time of present computer facilities can pose difficulties for assessment of such systems in many studies. A cluster procedure using the nearest centroid sorting method was used for IEEE-RTS load model. The application proved to be very effective in producing a highly similar model with substantially fewer states. This paper presents an extended application of the clustering method to include capacity probability representation. A series of sensitivity studies are illustrated using IEEE-RTS generating system and load models. The loss of load and energy expectations (LOLE, LOEE), are used as indicators to evaluate the application