Value at Risk (VaR) en empresas del sector real en Colombia: caso, Bogotá ELEKTRIKA

La estimación y gestión del riesgo con la evolución del mercado ha tomado gran relevancia, principalmente en el sector financiero y de capitales, no obstante las variables macroeconómicas que afectan el riesgo en el tiempo son cada vez más volátiles y generan un mayor nivel de incertidumbre; se puede presentar en igual medida o con un mayor impacto en empresas del sector real, principalmente en aquellas cuyas condiciones de valoración causan un mayor impacto para los inversionistas, tal es el caso de las Asociaciones Público Privadas, mecanismos de contratación que vinculan al sector privado con el público en el desarrollo de proyectos de mayor nivel, donde se requiere establecer la valoración y cuantificación del riesgo que cada una de las partes está dispuesto a asumir -- Hoy por hoy existen métodos de medición sofisticados que permiten la estimación del Value at Risk (VaR), los cuales han sido desarrollados principalmente por el sistema financiero, sin contar con una aplicación en el sector real -- Es por eso que surge la necesidad de esta investigación para obtener una metodología que permita estimar el VaR bajo los conceptos teóricos de economía, estadística y simulación

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

América Latina y el Caribe: Variables de competitividad para la dinámica empresarial 2007 - 2014

Este estudio realiza una categorización regional de los países en América Latina con respecto de las categorizaciones globales teniendo en cuenta los índices de competitividad, crecimiento económico y desarrollo humano. El objetivo es actualizar los análisis sobre la situación regional de forma cuantitativa involucrando el grado de asimetría en la competitividad. Esta relación entre el posicionamiento global y regional ha influenciado directamente la evolución del tejido empresarial

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

A Microleakage Study Of Gutta-percha/ah Plus And Resilon/real Self-etch Systems After Different Irrigation Protocols.

The development and maintenance of the sealing of the root canal system is the key to the success of root canal treatment. The resin-based adhesive material has the potential to reduce the microleakage of the root canal because of its adhesive properties and penetration into dentinal walls. Moreover, the irrigation protocols may have an influence on the adhesiveness of resin-based sealers to root dentin. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of different irrigant protocols on coronal bacterial microleakage of gutta-percha/AH Plus and Resilon/Real Seal Self-etch systems. One hundred ninety pre-molars were used. The teeth were divided into 18 experimental groups according to the irrigation protocols and filling materials used. The protocols used were: distilled water; sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl)+eDTA; NaOCl+H3PO4; NaOCl+eDTA+chlorhexidine (CHX); NaOCl+H3PO4+CHX; CHX+eDTA; CHX+ H3PO4; CHX+eDTA+CHX and CHX+H3PO4+CHX. Gutta-percha/AH Plus or Resilon/Real Seal Se were used as root-filling materials. The coronal microleakage was evaluated for 90 days against Enterococcus faecalis. Data were statistically analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival test, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests. No significant difference was verified in the groups using chlorhexidine or sodium hypochlorite during the chemo-mechanical preparation followed by eDTA or phosphoric acid for smear layer removal. The same results were found for filling materials. However, the statistical analyses revealed that a final flush with 2% chlorhexidine reduced significantly the coronal microleakage. A final flush with 2% chlorhexidine after smear layer removal reduces coronal microleakage of teeth filled with gutta-percha/AH Plus or Resilon/Real Seal SE.

Respiratory Viruses Are Continuously Detected In Children With Chronic Tonsillitis Throughout The Year.

To evaluate the oscillations on the viral detection in adenotonsillar tissues from patients with chronic adenotonsillar diseases as an indicia of the presence of persistent viral infections or acute subclinical infections. Cross-sectional prospective study. Tertiary hospital. The fluctuations of respiratory virus detection were compared to the major climatic variables during a two-year period using adenoids and palatine tonsils from 172 children with adenotonsillar hypertrophy and clinical evidence of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome or recurrent adenotonsillitis, without symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI), by TaqMan real-time PCR. The rate of detection of at least one respiratory virus in adenotonsillar tissue was 87%. The most frequently detected viruses were human adenovirus in 52.8%, human enterovirus in 47.2%, human rhinovirus in 33.8%, human bocavirus in 31.1%, human metapneumovirus in 18.3% and human respiratory syncytial virus in 17.2%. Although increased detection of human enterovirus occurred in summer/autumn months, and there were summer nadirs of human respiratory syncytial virus in both years of the study, there was no obvious viral seasonality in contrast to reports with ARI patients in many regions of the world. Respiratory viruses are continuously highly detected during whole year, and without any clinical symptomatology, indicating that viral genome of some virus can persist in lymphoepithelial tissues of the upper respiratory tract.

The Real-life Experience With Cardiovascular Complications In The First Dose Of Fingolimod For Multiple Sclerosis.

Fingolimod is a new and efficient treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS). The drug administration requires special attention to the first dose, since cardiovascular adverse events can be observed during the initial six hours of fingolimod ingestion. The present study consisted of a review of cardiovascular data on 180 patients with MS receiving the first dose of fingolimod. The rate of bradycardia in these patients was higher than that observed in clinical trials with very strict inclusion criteria for patients. There were less than 10% of cases requiring special attention, but no fatal cases. All but one patient continued the treatment after this initial dose. This is the first report on real-life administration of fingolimod to Brazilian patients with MS, and one of the few studies with these characteristics in the world.

Variables Associated With The Performance Of Centers For Dental Specialties In Brazil.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Centers for Dental Specialties (CDS) in the country and associations with sociodemographic indicators of the municipalities, structural variables of services and primary health care organization in the years 2004-2009. The study used secondary data from procedures performed in the CDS to the specialties of periodontics, endodontics, surgery and primary care. Bivariate analysis by χ2 test was used to test the association between the dependent variable (performance of the CDS) with the independents. Then, Poisson regression analysis was performed. With regard to the overall achievement of targets, it was observed that the majority of CDS (69.25%) performance was considered poor/regular. The independent factors associated with poor/regular performance of CDS were: municipalities belonging to the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, with lower Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and reduced time to deployment. HDI and population density are important for the performance of the CDS in Brazil. Similarly, the peculiarities related to less populated areas as well as regional location and time of service implementation CDS should be taken into account in the planning of these services.

Direct And Non-destructive Proof Of Authenticity For The 2nd Generation Of Brazilian Real Banknotes Via Easy Ambient Sonic Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry.

Using a desorption/ionization technique, easy ambient sonic-spray ionization coupled to mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), documents related to the 2nd generation of Brazilian Real currency (R$) were screened in the positive ion mode for authenticity based on chemical profiles obtained directly from the banknote surface. Characteristic profiles were observed for authentic, seized suspect counterfeit and counterfeited homemade banknotes from inkjet and laserjet printers. The chemicals in the authentic banknotes' surface were detected via a few minor sets of ions, namely from the plasticizers bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DBP), most likely related to the official offset printing process, and other common quaternary ammonium cations, presenting a similar chemical profile to 1st-generation R$. The seized suspect counterfeit banknotes, however, displayed abundant diagnostic ions in the m/z 400-800 range due to the presence of oligomers. High-accuracy FT-ICR MS analysis enabled molecular formula assignment for each ion. The ions were separated by 44 m/z, which enabled their characterization as Surfynol® 4XX (S4XX, XX=40, 65, and 85), wherein increasing XX values indicate increasing amounts of ethoxylation on a backbone of 2,4,7,9-tetramethyl-5-decyne-4,7-diol (Surfynol® 104). Sodiated triethylene glycol monobutyl ether (TBG) of m/z 229 (C10H22O4Na) was also identified in the seized counterfeit banknotes via EASI(+) FT-ICR MS. Surfynol® and TBG are constituents of inks used for inkjet printing.

Characterization Of Anfo Explosive By High Accuracy Esi(±)-ftms With Forensic Identification On Real Samples By Easi(-)-ms.

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) is an explosive used in many civil applications. In Brazil, ANFO has unfortunately also been used in criminal attacks, mainly in automated teller machine (ATM) explosions. In this paper, we describe a detailed characterization of the ANFO composition and its two main constituents (diesel and a nitrate explosive) using high resolution and accuracy mass spectrometry performed on an FT-ICR-mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI(±)-FTMS) in both the positive and negative ion modes. Via ESI(-)-MS, an ion marker for ANFO was characterized. Using a direct and simple ambient desorption/ionization technique, i.e., easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), in a simpler, lower accuracy but robust single quadrupole mass spectrometer, the ANFO ion marker was directly detected from the surface of banknotes collected from ATM explosion theft.

Sexual dysfunction in epilepsy: identifying the psychological variables

In order to evaluate the psychological variables that affect sexual dysfunction (SD) in epilepsy, where compared 60 epileptics (Group 1) with 60 healthy individuals (Group 2), through the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (Spielberger et al., 1970), Beck Depression Inventory (Beck, 1974) and Sexual Behavior Interview (Souza, 1995). Sexual dysfunction (SD), anxiety and depression were found more frequently in Group 1 than in Group 2 and were not related to sex. Variables such as the onset duration and frequency of seizures as well as the use to medication were not associated with SD. Temporal lobe epilepsy was related to SD (p = 0.035) but not to anxiety or depression. Anxiety and depression were related to SD in both groups. Perception in controlling the seizures was closely related to anxiety (p = 0) and depression (p = 0.009). We conclude that psychological factors play an important role in the alteration of sexual behavior in epileptics and that suitable attention must be given to the control of these variables.

Identification of family variables in parents' groups of children with epilepsy

OBJECTIVE: To verify the effectiveness of the support group in the identification of family variables linked to epilepsy. METHOD: Pre-test were applied to parents of 21 children with benign epilepsy of childhood recently diagnosed, from 5 to 15 years, who participated in the groups at HC/Unicamp. There was a presentation of an educational video, discussion and application of the post-test 1. After six months, the post-test 2 was applied. RESULTS: The beliefs were: fear of swallowing the tongue during the seizures (76.19%) and of a future mental disease (66.67%). Facing the epilepsy, fear and sadness appeared. 76.19% of the parents presented overprotection and 90.48%, expected a new seizure. In the post-test 1, the parents affirmed that the information offered had modified the beliefs. In the post-test 2, 80.95% didn't report great doubts about epilepsy and 90.48% considered their relationship with their children better. CONCLUSIONS: The demystification of beliefs supplied from the groups influenced the family positively, prevented behavior alterations and guaranteed effective care in the attendance to the child with epilepsy.

Equipamento microprocessado para geração de sinal de correção diferencial, em tempo real, para GPS

This work presents the development of low cost microprocessor-based equipment for generation of differential GPS correction signal, in real time, and configuration and supervision of the GPS base. The developed equipment contains a dedicated microcontroller connected to the GPS receiver, alphanumeric display and multifunction keyboard for configuration and operation of the system and communication interfaces. The electronic circuit has the function of receiving the information from GPS base; interpret them, converting the sentence in the RTCM SC-104 protocol. The microcontroller software makes the conversion of the signal received by the GPS base from the specific format to RTCM SC-104 protocol. The processing main board has two serials RS-232C standard interfaces. One of them is used for configuration and receiving the information generated by the GPS base. The other operates as output, sending the differential correction signal for the transmission system. The development of microprocessor-based equipment showed that it is possible the construction of a low cost private station for real time generation of differential GPS correction signal.

Efeitos da temperatura do ar, linhagem e período do dia nas freqüências de ocorrências e tempos de expressão comportamental de matrizes pesadas

Behavioral adjustments may occur fast and with less cost than the physiological adaptations. Considering the social behavior is suggestive that the frequency and the intensity of aggressive interactions, the total social cohesion and the extent of vicious attitudes may be used to evaluate welfare. This research presents an analysis of the interactions between the experimental factors such as temperature, genetic and time of the day in the behavior of female broiler breeders under controlled environment in a climatic chamber in order to enhance the different reaction of the birds facing distinct environmental conditions. The results showed significant differences between the behaviors expressed by the studied genetics presenting the need of monitoring them in real-time in order to predict their welfare in commercial housing, due to the complexity of the environmental variables that interfere in the well being process. The research also concluded that the welfare evaluation of female broiler breeders needs to consider the time of the day during the observation of the behaviors.

Determinação em tempo real da magnitude de danos físicos por impacto em linhas de beneficiamento e em condições de laboratório e seus efeitos na qualidade de tomate

Tomatoes are one of the most important vegetable crops grown in Brazil and are among the crops that have one of the highest post-harvest losses indexes in the country. The present work aimed at evaluating impact damage observed in packing lines of fresh tomatoes as well as to determine, under laboratory conditions, quality alterations of tomato fruits submitted to impact damage in different surface types. Critical points evaluation was accomplished using an instrumented sphere. Critical transference points found showed variations in acceleration levels from 30 to 129 G (m s-2). Tests carried out under laboratory conditions showed that padded surfaces reduced up to 31% impact damage. Incidence of severe internal physical damage was evaluated by a subjective scale and increased by 79% on hard surfaces for the highest fall drop. On the other hand, it was observed an effective reduction in physical damage on fruits when padded surfaces were used. When a 10-cm drop was performed, the maximum reduction measured was 10% for hard surfaces and 5% for previously padded surfaces. For quality parameters, it was observed for high drops on hard surfaces, highest values for weight loss, total acidity, lower values for vitamin C and Soluble Solids.