Reação dos mercados de CDS e de cotações bolsistas a anúncios de rating: o caso dos maiores bancos portugueses

A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo avaliar a capacidade que os mercados de Credit Default Swaps (CDS) e acionista apresentam de antecipar alterações nas notações das principais Agências de Rating mundiais. Para esse efeito serão analisadas as cotações diárias dos prémios de CDS e as cotações diárias de ações dos quatro principais bancos portugueses entre 2004 e 2012, bem como os eventos de rating associados a esses bancos. A literatura existente, apresenta, resultados que tendem a evidenciar que os CDS reagem, regra geral, de forma mais rápida a anúncios das Agências de Rating e que esta mesma reação é maior para eventos negativos (downgrade das notações de rating) do que para eventos positivos (upgrade das notações). O presente estudo detecta, para dois daqueles bancos alguma capacidade dos prémios dos CDS anteciparem eventos negativos de rating.

China's space program : a new tool for PRC "soft power" in international relations?

When China launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 to destroy one of its inactive weather satellites, most reactions from academics and U.S. space experts focused on a potential military “space race” between the United States and China. Overlooked, however, is China’s growing role as global competitor on the non-military side of space. China’s space program goes far beyond military counterspace applications and manifests manned space aspirations, including lunar exploration. Its pursuit of both commercial and scientific international space ventures constitutes a small, yet growing, percentage of the global space launch and related satellite service industry. It also highlights China’s willingness to cooperate with nations far away from Asia for political and strategic purposes. These partnerships may constitute a challenge to the United States and enhance China’s “soft power” among key American allies and even in some regions traditionally dominated by U.S. influence (e.g., Latin America and Africa). Thus, an appropriate U.S. response may not lie in a “hard power” counterspace effort but instead in a revival of U.S. space outreach of the past, as well as implementation of more business-friendly export control policies.

Modelo de seleção de fornecedores baseado em dados reais – plataforma informática e dados de suporte ao modelo

Atualmente, as estratégias que as empresas optam por seguir para a maximização de recursos materiais e humanos, podem representar a diferença entre o sucesso e o fracasso. A seleção de fornecedores é um fator bastante crítico para o desempenho da empresa compradora, sendo por vezes necessária a resolução de problemas que apresentam um elevado grau de complexidade. A escolha dos métodos a ser utilizados e a eleição dos critérios mais relevantes foi feito com base no estudo de diversos autores e nas repostas obtidas a um inquérito online difundido por uma amostra de empresas portuguesas, criado especificamente para compreender quais os fatores que mais peso tinham nas decisões de escolha de parceiros. Além disso, os resultados adquiridos desta forma foram utilizados para conceder mais precisão às ponderações efetuadas na ferramenta de seleção, na escolha dos melhores fornecedores introduzidos pelos utilizadores da mesma. Muitos estudos literários propõem o uso de métodos para simplificar a tarefa de seleção de fornecedores. Esta dissertação aplica o estudo realizado nos métodos de seleção, nomeadamente o Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) e Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), necessários para o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta de software online que permitia, a qualquer empresa nacional, obter uma classificação para os seus fornecedores perante um conjunto de critérios e subcritérios.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Data Extraction Tool to Analyse, Transform and Store Real Data from Electricity Markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring process produced. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge to define realistic scenarios, which are essential for understanding and forecast electricity markets behavior. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of electricity markets and of the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites is presented, assuring constant updating and reliability of the stored data.

An automatic tool to Extract, Transform and Load data from real electricity markets

The study of Electricity Markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring produced. Currently, lots of information concerning Electricity Markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge, to define realistic scenarios, essential for understanding and forecast Electricity Markets behaviour. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of Electricity Markets and the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper we present an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites, assuring actualization and reliability of stored data.

Load Profiling Tool to Support Smart Grid Operation Scenarios

This paper presents the characterization of high voltage (HV) electric power consumers based on a data clustering approach. The typical load profiles (TLP) are obtained selecting the best partition of a power consumption database among a pool of data partitions produced by several clustering algorithms. The choice of the best partition is supported using several cluster validity indices. The proposed data-mining (DM) based methodology, that includes all steps presented in the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD), presents an automatic data treatment application in order to preprocess the initial database in an automatic way, allowing time saving and better accuracy during this phase. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customers’ consumption behavior. To validate our approach, a case study with a real database of 185 HV consumers was used.

Smart meters as a tool for energy efficiency

Gradually smart grids and smart meters are closer to the home consumers. Several countries has developed studies focused in the impacts arising from the introduction of these technologies and one of the main advantages are related to energy efficiency, observed through the awareness of the population on behalf of a more efficient consumption. These benefits are felt directly by consumers through the savings on electricity bills and also by the concessionaires through the minimization of losses in transmission and distribution, system stability, smaller loading during peak hours, among others. In this article two projects that demonstrate the potential energy savings through smart meters and smart grids are presented. The first performed in Korea, focusing on the installation of smart meters and the impact of use of user interfaces. The second performed in Portugal, focusing on the control of loads in a residence with distributed generation.

O papel das agências de rating e a dívida pública portuguesa

Durante as últimas décadas observou-se o crescimento da importância das avaliações fornecidas pelas agências de rating, sendo este um fator decisivo na tomada de decisão dos investidores. Também os emitentes de dívida são largamente afetados pelas alterações das classificações atribuídas por estas agências. Esta investigação pretende, por um lado, compreender se estas agências têm poder para conseguirem influenciar a evolução da dívida pública e qual o seu papel no mercado financeiro. Por outro, pretende compreender quais os fatores determinantes da dívida pública portuguesa, bem como a realização de uma análise por percentis com o objetivo de lhe atribuir um rating. Para a análise dos fatores que poderão influenciar a dívida pública, a metodologia utilizada é uma regressão linear múltipla estimada através do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados (Ordinary Least Squares – OLS), em que num cenário inicial era composta por onze variáveis independentes, sendo a dívida pública a variável dependente, para um período compreendido entre 1996 e 2013. Foram realizados vários testes ao modelo inicial, com o objetivo de encontrar um modelo que fosse o mais explicativo possível. Conseguimos ainda identificar uma relação inversa entre o rating atribuído por estas agências e a evolução da dívida pública, no sentido em que para períodos em que o rating desce, o crescimento da dívida é mais acentuado. Não nos foi, no entanto, possível atribuir um rating à dívida pública através de uma análise de percentis.

Terminology as a sensemaking social tool

Since the middle of the first decade of this century, several authors have announced the dawn of a new Age, following the Information/ Knowledge Age (1970-2005?). We are certainly living in a Shift Age (Houle, 2007), but no standard designation has been broadly adopted so far, and others, such as Conceptual Age (Pink, 2005) or Social Age (Azua, 2009), are only some of the proposals to name current times. Due to the amount of information available nowadays, meaning making and understanding seem to be common features of this new age of change; change related to (i) how individuals and organizations engage with each other, to (ii) the way we deal with technology, to (iii) how we engage and communicate within communities to create meaning, i.e., also social networking-driven changes. The Web 2.0 and the social networks have strongly altered the way we learn, live, work and, of course, communicate. Within all the possible dimensions we could address this change, we chose to focus on language – a taken-for-granted communication tool, used, translated and recreated in personal and geographical variants, by the many users and authors of the social networks and other online communities and platforms. In this paper, we discuss how the Web 2.0, and specifically social networks, have contributed to changes in the communication process and, in bi- or multilingual environments, to the evolution and freeware use of the so called “international language”: English. Next, we discuss some of the impacts and challenges of this language diversity in international communication in the shift age of understanding and social networking, focusing on specialized networks. Then we point out some skills and strategies to avoid babelization and to build meaningful and effective content in mono or multilingual networks, through the use of common and shared concepts and designations in social network environments. For this purpose, we propose a social and collaborative approach to terminology management, as a shared, strategic and sense making tool for specialized communication in Web 2.0 environments.

Self-assessment of writing skills: a reliable and valid tool in an efl classroom

Trabalho de projecto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ensino da Língua Inglesa

Analysis of Synaptic Proteins in the Cerebrospinal Fluid as a New Tool in the Study of Inborn Errors of Neurotransmission

Abstract In a few rare diseases, specialised studies in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are required to identify the underlying metabolic disorder. We aimed to explore the possibility of detecting key synaptic proteins in the CSF, in particular dopaminergic and gabaergic, as new procedures that could be useful for both pathophysiological and diagnostic purposes in investigation of inherited disorders of neurotransmission. Dopamine receptor type 2 (D2R), dopamine transporter (DAT) and vesicular monoamine transporter type 2 (VMAT2) were analysed in CSF samplesfrom 30 healthy controls (11 days to 17 years) by western blot analysis. Because VMAT2 was the only protein with intracellular localisation, and in order to compare results, GABA vesicular transporter, which is another intracellular protein, was also studied. Spearman’s correlation and Student’s t tests were applied to compare optical density signals between different proteins. All these synaptic proteins could be easily detected and quantified in the CSF. DAT, D2R and GABA VT expression decrease with age, particularly in the first months of life, reflecting the expected intense synaptic activity and neuronal circuitry formation. A statistically significant relationship was found between D2R and DAT expression, reinforcing the previous evidence of DAT regulation by D2R. To our knowledge, there are no previous studies on human CSF reporting a reliable analysis of these proteins. These kinds of studies could help elucidate new causes of disturbed dopaminergic and gabaergic transmission as well as understanding different responses to L-dopa in inherited disorders affecting dopamine metabolism. Moreover, this approach to synaptic activity in vivo can be extended to different groups of proteins and diseases.

Elaboração e estruturação de um modelo de rating interno

Temos vindo a assistir nos últimos anos a uma evolução no que respeita à avaliação do risco de crédito. As constantes alterações de regulamentação bancária, que resultam dos Acordos de Basileia, têm vindo a impor novas normas que condicionam a quantidade e a qualidade do risco de crédito que as Instituições de Crédito podem assumir nos seus balanços. É de grande importância as Instituições de Crédito avaliarem o risco de crédito, as garantias e o custo de capital, pois têm um impacto direto na sua gestão nomeadamente quanto à afetação de recursos e proteção contra perdas. Desta forma, pretende-se com o presente trabalho elaborar e estruturar um modelo de rating interno através de técnicas estatísticas, assim como identificar as variáveis estatisticamente relevantes no modelo considerado. Foi delineada uma metodologia de investigação mista, considerando na primeira parte do trabalho uma pesquisa qualitativa e na segunda parte uma abordagem quantitativa. Através da análise documental, fez-se uma abordagem dos conceitos teóricos e da regulamentação que serve de base ao presente trabalho. No estudo de caso, o modelo de rating interno foi desenvolvido utilizando a técnica estatística designada de regressão linear múltipla. A amostra considerada foi obtida através da base de dados SABI e é constituída por cem empresas solventes, situadas na zona de Paredes, num horizonte temporal de 2011-2013. A nossa análise baseou-se em três cenários, correspondendo cada cenário aos dados de cada ano (2011, 2012 e 2013). Para validar os pressupostos do modelo foram efetuados testes estatísticos de Durbin Watson e o teste de significância - F (ANOVA). Por fim, para obtermos a classificação de rating de cada variável foi aplicada a técnica dos percentis. Pela análise dos três cenários considerados, verificou-se que o cenário dois foi o que obteve maior coeficiente de determinação. Verificou-se ainda que as variáveis independentes, rácio de liquidez geral, grau de cobertura do ativo total pelo fundo de maneio e rácio de endividamento global são estatisticamente relevantes.