Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

G and P rotavirus genotypes in stool samples from children in Teresina, State of Piauí

A total of 123 stool specimens collected in Teresina, Piauí between 1994 and 1996, from 0 to 2-year-old children with diarrhea, were used for this study. Molecular characterization of the G and P rotavirus genotypes was performed using the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The following results were obtained for the P genotypes: P[8] (17. 1%), P[1] (4. 9%), P[4] (3. 3%), P[6, M37] (2. 4%) and mixtures (27. 6%). The P[1]+P[8] mixture was found in 19. 5% of the samples. For the G genotypes, the results were: G1 (25. 2%), G5 (13. 8%), G2 (2. 5%), G4 (2. 5%), G9 (0. 8%) and mixtures (41. 5%). G1+G5 was the mixture most frequently found (12. 1%). Our results showed unusual combinations such as P[1]G5 and P[1]+P[8]G5. The high percentage of mixtures and unusual combinations containing mixtures of human and animal rotavirus genotypes strongly suggests the possibility of gene reassortment and interspecies transmission.

Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1) virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI) is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC) in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS) (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea) in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50%) than in children (21.6%) ( p < 0.0001) and influenza infection was more prevalent in the ILI definition (53%) than ARS (24.4%) (p < 0.0001). Adults reported more chills and myalgia than children (p = 0.0001). Oseltamivir was administered in 58% and 46% of adults and children with influenza A H1N1, respectively. The influenza A H1N1 case fatality rate was 7% in adults and 8.3% in children. The mean time from onset of illness until antiviral administration was 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of ILI to ARS definition resulted in less accuracy in influenza diagnosis and did not improve the appropriate time and use of antiviral medication.

Molecular characterization of rabies virus isolated from non-haematophagous bats in Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Rabies is an important zoonosis that causes thousands of deaths worldwide each year. Although the terrestrial cycle, mainly transmitted by dogs, is controlled in Brazil, the aerial cycle remains a serious public health issue, besides the economic problem. In the aerial cycle, the haematophagous bat Desmodus rotundus is the main source of infection, where several different species of non-haematophagous bats can be infected and can transmit the virus. METHODS: The aim of this work was to study the epidemiological pattern of rabies using antigenic characterization with monoclonal antibodies and genetic characterization by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction followed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of non-haematophagous bats' and herbivorous animals' central nervous system samples from the western region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. RESULTS: From 27 samples, 3 antigenic variants were identified: AgV-3, AgV-4, and AgV-6; and from 29 samples, 5 different clusters were identified, all belonging to the rabies virus species. CONCLUSIONS: Although only non-haematophagous bats were evaluated in the studied region, the majority of samples were from antigenic and genetic variants related to haematophagous bats Desmodus rotundus. Samples from the same antigenic variant were segregated in more than one genetic cluster. This study demonstrated the diversity of rabies virus genetic lineages presented and circulating in non-haematophagous bats in the studied region.

Evaluation of inadequate anti-retroviral treatment in patients with HIV/AIDS

INTRODUCTION: Since the emergence of antiretroviral therapy, the survival of patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus has increased. Non-adherence to this therapy is directly related to treatment failure, which allows the emergence of resistant viral strains. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study of the antiretroviral dispensing records of 229 patients from the Center for Health Care, University Hospital, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, was conducted between January and December 2009. RESULTS: The study aimed to evaluate patient compliance and determine if there was an association between non-adherence and the therapy. Among these patients, 63.8% were men with an average age of 44.0 ± 9.9 years. The most used treatment was a combination of 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors with 1 non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (55.5%) or with 2 protease inhibitors (28.8%). It was found that patients taking lopinavir/ritonavir with zidovudine and lamivudine had a greater frequency of inadequate treatment than those taking atazanavir with zidovudine and lamivudine (85% and 83.3%, respectively). Moreover, when the combination of zidovudine/ lamivudine was used, the patients were less compliant (χ2 = 4.468, 1 degree of freedom, p = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients failed to correctly adhere to their treatment; therefore, it is necessary to implement strategies that lead to improved compliance, thus ensuring therapeutic efficacy and increased patient survival.

Simultaneous circulation of all four dengue serotypes in Manaus, State of Amazonas, Brazil in 2011

INTRODUCTION: Manaus, the capital city of the state of Amazon with nearly 2 million inhabitants, is located in the middle of the Amazon rain forest and has suffered dengue outbreaks since 1998. METHODS: In this study, blood samples were investigated using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), aimed at identifying dengue virus serotypes. RESULTS: Acute phase sera from 432 patients were tested for the presence of dengue virus. Out of the 432 patients, 137 (31.3%) were found to be positive. All the four dengue virus serotypes were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous circulation of the four dengue serotypes is described for the first time in Manaus and in Brazil.

Low frequency of TERT promoter mutations in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

Somatic mutations in the promoter region of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene, mainly at positions c. − 124 and c. − 146 bp, are frequent in several human cancers; yet its presence in gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) has not been reported to date. Herein, we searched for the presence and clinicopathological association of TERT promoter mutations in genomic DNA from 130 bona fide GISTs. We found TERT promoter mutations in 3.8% (5/130) of GISTs. The c. − 124C4T mutation was the most common event, present in 2.3% (3/130), and the c. − 146C4T mutation in 1.5% (2/130) of GISTs. No significant association was observed between TERT promoter mutation and patient’s clinicopathological features. The present study establishes the low frequency (4%) of TERT promoter mutations in GISTs. Further studies are required to confirm our findings and to elucidate the hypothetical biological and clinical impact of TERT promoter mutation in GIST pathogenesis.

Expressao genica associada ao estresse oxidativo no coracao de camundongo apos isquemia intestinal

FUNDAMENTO: O fenômeno da isquemia e reperfusão intestinal é um evento frequente na clínica e está associado a repercussões deletérias em órgãos a distância, em especial ao coração. OBJETIVO: Investigar a expressão gênica do estresse oxidativo e defesa antioxidante no coração de camundongos isogênicos, submetidos a isquemia e reperfusão intestinal (IR). MÉTODOS: Doze camundongos (C57BL/6) foram distribuídos em dois grupos: Grupo IR (GIR) com 60 min de oclusão da artéria mesentérica superior, seguidos de 60 min de reperfusão. Grupo Controle (GC) submetidos a anestesia e a laparotomia sem o procedimento de IR observados por 120 min. As amostras de intestino e coração foram processadas pelo método (RT-qPCR / Reverse transcriptase - quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction) para determinar a expressão gênica de 84 genes relacionados ao estresse oxidativo ("t" de Student, p < 0,05). RESULTADOS: Observou-se no tecido intestinal (GIR) uma expressão significantemente aumentada em 65 (74,71%) genes em relação ao tecido normal (GC), e 37 (44,04%) genes estiveram hiperexpressos (maior que três vezes o limiar permitido pelo algoritmo). No tocante aos efeitos da I/R intestinal a distância no tecido cardíaco verificou-se a expressão significantemente aumentada de 28 genes (33,33%), mas somente oito genes (9,52%) se hiperexpressaram três vezes acima do limiar. Quatro (7,14%) desses oito genes se expressaram simultaneamente nos tecidos intestinal e cardíaco. No GIR notaram-se cardiomiócitos com núcleos de menor tamanho, picnóticos, ricos em heterocromatina e raros nucléolos, indicando sofrimento cardíaco. CONCLUSÃO: A I/R intestinal promoveu a hiperexpressão estatisticamente significante de oito genes associados ao estresse oxidativo a distância no tecido miocárdico.

Effect on renal function of tenofovir co-administered with either efavirenz or boosted lopinavir or boosted atazanavir: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Reduced re'nal function has been reported with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). It is not clear whether TDF co-administered with a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) leads to a greater decline in renal function than TDF co-administered with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI).Methods: We selected ail antiretroviral therapy-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with calibrated or corrected serum creatinine measurements starting antiretroviral therapy with TDF and either efavirenz (EFV) or the ritonavir-boosted PIs, lopinavir (LPV/r) or atazanavir (ATV/r). As a measure of renal function, we used the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We calculated the difference in eGFR over time between two therapies using a marginal model for repeated measures. In weighted analyses, observations were weighted by the product of their point of treatment and censoring weights to adjust for differences both in the sort of patients starting each therapy and in the sort of patients remaining on each therapy over time.Results: By March 2011, 940 patients with at least one creatinine measurement on a first therapy with either TDF and EFV (n=484), TDF and LPVlr (n=269) or TDF and ATV/r (n=187) had been followed for a median of 1. 7, 1.2 and 1.3 years, respectively. Table 1 shows the difference in average estimated GFR (eGFR) over time since starting cART for two marginal models. The first model was not adjusted for potential confounders; the second mode! used weights to adjust for confounders. The results suggest a greater decline in renal function during the first 6 months if TDF is used with a PI rather than with an NNRTI, but no further difference between these therapies after the first 6 months. TDF and ATV/r may lead to a greater decline in the first 6 months than TDF and LPVlr.Conclusions: TDF co-administered with a boosted PI leads to a greater de cline in renal function over the first 6 months of therapy than TDF co-administered with an NNRTI; this decline may be worse with ATV/r than with LPV/r.

Redirecció de l'especificitat de les cél·lules T contra epítops del VIH restringit per la HLA-A2 mitjaçant transferència genética

Existeixen creixents evidències què la resposta dels limfòcits T CD8+ alpha beta citotòxics (CTLs) és un element fonamental en la infecció produïda pel VIH. Les CTLs VIH especifiques es consideren molt importants en la reducció de la càrrega viral i en la contenció de la infecció. Encara que la combinació dels antiretrovirals (HAART) ha suposat una millora considerable en la lluita contra el VIH induint una important reducció de la càrrega viral i augmentant el nombre de cèl•lules T CD4+, diverses complicacions han fet ressaltar la necessitat de noves alternatives terapèutiques. Les complicacions inclouen: manca de recuperació d’una resposta immune sòlida contra el VIH, toxicitat a llarg termini de la teràpia i el descobriment que les cèl•lules T CD4+ constitueixen un reservori pel virus. Les noves alternatives controlaran la replicació viral i reconstituiran la immunitat. L’eficàcia de la immunoteràpia cel•lular amb transferència adoptiva de CTLs virals específics s’ha provat en diferents infeccions virals humanes, incloent el VIH. Proposem una modificació de la immunoteràpia adoptiva redirigint l’especificitat de les cèl•lules T contra el VIH mitjançant la transfecció dels gens del TCR. En aquest assaig preclínic, ens aprofitarem de la tecnologia dels animals transgènics per les molècules de HLA, amb la finalitat de generar TCRs d’alta afinitat dirigits contra epitops del VIH restringits per la molècula HLA. Aquests TCRs seran induïts in vivo i seleccionats in vitro. Les cadenes alpha i beta dels TCRs VIH específics procedents de les CTLs seran clonades mitjançant tècniques de biologia molecular. Aquests TCRs VIH específics seran transferits a cèl•lules T CD8+ humanes i la seva especificitat i capacitat citolítica contra cèl•lules diana que presentin antígens de VIH-1 s’estudiaran mitjançant la combinació de diverses tècniques noves (FCC, transfecció mitjançant Nucleoefector). Finalment, una construcció retroviral adient per la seva transducció en cèl•lules T humanes s’establirà amb un TCR òptim seleccionat.

Long-Term Trends of HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Prevalence among Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced Patients in Switzerland.

Background. Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. Methods. On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). Results. Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. Conclusions. Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

IB1/JIP-1 controls JNK activation and increased during prostatic LNCaP cells neuroendocrine differentiation.

The scaffold protein Islet-Brain1/c-Jun amino-terminal kinase Interacting Protein-1 (IB1/JIP-1) is a modulator of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) activity, which has been implicated in pleiotrophic cellular functions including cell differentiation, division, and death. In this study, we described the presence of IB1/JIP-1 in epithelium of the rat prostate as well as in the human prostatic LNCaP cells. We investigated the functional role of IB1/JIP-1 in LNCaP cells exposed to the proapoptotic agent N-(4-hydroxyphenyl)retinamide (4-HPR) which induced a reduction of IB1/JIP-1 content and a concomittant increase in JNK activity. Conversely, IB1/JIP-1 overexpression using a viral gene transfer prevented the JNK activation and the 4-HPR-induced apoptosis was blunted. In prostatic adenocarcinoma cells, the neuroendocrine (NE) phenotype acquisition is associated with tumor progression and androgen independence. During NE transdifferentiation of LNCaP cells, IB1/JIP-1 levels were increased. This regulated expression of IB1/JIP-1 is secondary to a loss of the neuronal transcriptional repressor neuron restrictive silencing factor (NRSF/REST) function which is known to repress IB1/JIP-1. Together, these results indicated that IB1/JIP-1 participates to the neuronal phenotype of the human LNCaP cells and is a regulator of JNK signaling pathway.

Redirection of T cells by delivering a transgenic mouse-derived MDM2 tumor antigen-specific TCR and its humanized derivative is governed by the CD8 coreceptor and affects natural human TCR expression.

Retroviral transfer of T cell antigen receptor (TCR) genes selected by circumventing tolerance to broad tumor- and leukemia-associated antigens in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A*0201 (A2.1) transgenic (Tg) mice allows the therapeutic reprogramming of human T lymphocytes. Using a human CD8 x A2.1/Kb mouse derived TCR specific for natural peptide-A2.1 (pA2.1) complexes comprising residues 81-88 of the human homolog of the murine double-minute 2 oncoprotein, MDM2(81-88), we found that the heterodimeric CD8 alpha beta coreceptor, but not normally expressed homodimeric CD8 alpha alpha, is required for tetramer binding and functional redirection of TCR- transduced human T cells. CD8+T cells that received a humanized derivative of the MDM2 TCR bound pA2.1 tetramers only in the presence of an anti-human-CD8 anti-body and required more peptide than wild-type (WT) MDM2 TCR+T cells to mount equivalent cytotoxicity. They were, however, sufficiently effective in recognizing malignant targets including fresh leukemia cells. Most efficient expression of transduced TCR in human T lymphocytes was governed by mouse as compared to human constant (C) alphabeta domains, as demonstrated with partially humanized and murinized TCR of primary mouse and human origin, respectively. We further observed a reciprocal relationship between the level of Tg WT mouse relative to natural human TCR expression, resulting in T cells with decreased normal human cell surface TCR. In contrast, natural human TCR display remained unaffected after delivery of the humanized MDM2 TCR. These results provide important insights into the molecular basis of TCR gene therapy of malignant disease.

Connexin-36 contributes to control function of insulin-producing cells.

Connexin-36 (Cx36) is a gap junction protein expressed by the insulin-producing beta-cells. We investigated the contribution of this protein in normal beta-cell function by using a viral gene transfer approach to alter Cx36 content in the insulin-producing line of INS-1E cells and rat pancreatic islets. Transcripts for Cx43, Cx45, and Cx36 were detected by reverse transcriptase-PCR in freshly isolated pancreatic islets, whereas only a transcript for Cx36 was detected in INS-1E cells. After infection with a sense viral vector, which induced de novo Cx36 expression in the Cx-defective HeLa cells we used to control the transgene expression, Western blot, immunofluorescence, and freeze-fracture analysis showed a large increase of Cx36 within INS-1E cell membranes. In contrast, after infection with an antisense vector, Cx36 content was decreased by 80%. Glucose-induced insulin release and insulin content were decreased, whether infected INS-1E cells expressed Cx36 levels that were largely higher or lower than those observed in wild-type control cells. In both cases, basal insulin secretion was unaffected. Comparable observations on basal secretion and insulin content were made in freshly isolated rat pancreatic islets. The data indicate that large changes in Cx36 alter insulin content and, at least in INS-1E cells, also affect glucose-induced insulin release.

Single-cell gene-expression profiling reveals qualitatively distinct CD8 T cells elicited by different gene-based vaccines.

CD8 T cells play a key role in mediating protective immunity against selected pathogens after vaccination. Understanding the mechanism of this protection is dependent upon definition of the heterogeneity and complexity of cellular immune responses generated by different vaccines. Here, we identify previously unrecognized subsets of CD8 T cells based upon analysis of gene-expression patterns within single cells and show that they are differentially induced by different vaccines. Three prime-boost vector combinations encoding HIV Env stimulated antigen-specific CD8 T-cell populations of similar magnitude, phenotype, and functionality. Remarkably, however, analysis of single-cell gene-expression profiles enabled discrimination of a majority of central memory (CM) and effector memory (EM) CD8 T cells elicited by the three vaccines. Subsets of T cells could be defined based on their expression of Eomes, Cxcr3, and Ccr7, or Klrk1, Klrg1, and Ccr5 in CM and EM cells, respectively. Of CM cells elicited by DNA prime-recombinant adenoviral (rAd) boost vectors, 67% were Eomes(-) Ccr7(+) Cxcr3(-), in contrast to only 7% and 2% stimulated by rAd5-rAd5 or rAd-LCMV, respectively. Of EM cells elicited by DNA-rAd, 74% were Klrk1(-) Klrg1(-)Ccr5(-) compared with only 26% and 20% for rAd5-rAd5 or rAd5-LCMV. Definition by single-cell gene profiling of specific CM and EM CD8 T-cell subsets that are differentially induced by different gene-based vaccines will facilitate the design and evaluation of vaccines, as well as enable our understanding of mechanisms of protective immunity.